2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

How about this for a 2015 Best Actor category? You could have Miles Davis, Steve Jobs, Dalton Trumbo, Whitey Bulger, Dan Rather, Hank Williams, Edward Snowden, and Lance Armstrong all competing against one another? Yep, it’s true as this year’s possibilities contain a number of high-profile performers playing real life characters.

Today is part four of my very early Oscar predictions. In 2014, I made my initial round at the same time. For the races of Best Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress, these early 2014 prognostications yielded just two of the eventual five nominees. Yet last year in the Best Actor race, they correctly predicted four of the five eventual nominees and the fifth was mentioned in the other possibilities section.

Back to the real life folks. Of the many I mentioned, I currently only have Don Cheadle’s work as Miles Davis in Miles Ahead and Michael Fassbender’s portrayal of Steve Jobs getting in. Fassbender, it should be noted, also remains a contender for this fall’s Macbeth. Any of the others mentioned could bubble up: Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, Robert Redford as Dan Rather in Truth, Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams in I Saw the Light, Ben Foster as Lance Armstrong in The Program, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Snowden. Like Fassbender, Gordon-Levitt could be a contender for Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, too.

Last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne has a showy role in the period piece transgender drama The Danish Girl and he could easily see a second nod in as many years. Beloved veteran thespian Michael Caine has received raves for Youth. And Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s yet to win, is sure to receive attention for December’s The Revenant. 

As festivals begin to roll on and some of these aforementioned films will be reviewed, the picture should continue to become clearer. As for now:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Michael Caine, Youth

Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Burnt

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Michael Fassbender, Macbeth

Colin Firth, Genius

Ben Foster, The Program

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Tom Hardy, Legend

Tom Hiddleston, I Saw the Light

Brad Pitt, By the Sea

Robert Redford, Truth

Best Director will be up tomorrow with Best Picture on Saturday! Stay tuned…

If you missed my previous posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/02/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Mortdecai Box Office Prediction

During this decade, Johnny Depp has seen his share of box office disappointments that include The Tourist, Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger and Transcendence. This Friday, the comedy Mortdecai will succeed or fail solely on the star’s drawing power. Considering the recent history, it could mean a soft opening.

Depp collaborates for the second time with his Secret Window director David Koepp. The supporting cast is filled with famous faces that include Gwyneth Paltrow, Ewan McGregor, Paul Bettany, Olivia Munn and Aubrey Plaza. Reviews have yet to materialize – usually not a good sign. The trailers and TV spots have been unremarkable at best.

It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Mortdecai performs well. I believe it will struggle to reach double digits and won’t. Lionsgate is on record saying they’d like to see Mortdecai become a franchise. After next weekend’s opening, that talk should cease and my prediction would mark Depp’s lowest debut since 2011’s The Rum Diary.

Mortdecai opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

For my Strange Magic prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

Into the Woods Box Office Prediction

Walt Disney’s Christmas gift to moviegoers is Into the Woods, the adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Broadway smash musical fantasy. From Oscar winning Chicago director Rob Marshall, Woods features an all-star cast that includes Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt, Chris Pine, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden.

Woods has been well publicized and should be primed to connect with audiences over the holiday break. Reviews have been mostly strong and it sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar buzz, particularly for Streep in the Supporting Actress race. It’s debuting on approximately 2200 screens which isn’t near the 3000 plus that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken is scheduled for, so that could slightly hinder its potential out of the gate.

Nevertheless with its strong brand name, Disney marketing, and recognizable stars, Woods should get off to a solid start with Christmas ticket buyers.

Into the Woods box office prediction: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Unbroken prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my Big Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Imitation Game, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/the-imitation-game-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: ROUND TWO (October Edition)

This evening on the blog, we arrive at round two of my Oscar Predictions for the 2014 race, which will air in early 2015 with Neil Patrick Harris handling hosting duties. In late August, I made my initial round of predictions and two months later, much has changed and much has stayed the same. Unlike my first round, my second go round will include the races of Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay.

Let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s where I see the Oscar race right now in the eight major categories:

Best Adapted Screenplay

For my first crack at the Adapted Screenplay race, it’s probably safe to assume Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her own bestseller Gone Girl will make the cut, as well as festival favorites The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. I’m also safely (at the moment) including Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, even though no one has seen it yet. The fifth slot includes several contenders: Still Alice, Inherent Vice, Wild, Into the Woods, and American Sniper. No one has viewed Sniper yet, but its recently released trailer inspires hope.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Best Original Screenplay

Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman appear to be shoo-ins for inclusion. I’m also thinking Wes Anderson’s work for The Grand Budapest Hotel stands it best chance at a nod here. For the remaining two slots – I’m saying Foxcatcher and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, for now. Other contenders include Mr. Turner, Top Five, Whiplash, A Most Violent Year, Selma, and Big Eyes.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interstellar

Best Supporting Actress

This race has changed quite a bit since my first round of predictions. I originally had both Emily Blunt for Into the Woods and Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything listed here, but it’s since been announced their performances will fall into the Best Actress race. They’re out – along with Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King in Selma. The only two actresses from my initial predictions are Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (who’s a front runner) and Laura Dern in Wild. Added to the mix are Emma Stone in Birdman and Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game. Other possibilities for the fifth slot include Meryl Streep in Into the Woods, Jessica Chastain in Interstellar, Carrie Coon for Gone Girl, Sienna Miller in American Sniper, Julianne Moore in A Map to the Stars, Anna Kendrick in Into the Woods, Katherine Waterson in Inherent Vice, and Jessica Lange in The Gambler. I’ll go with Kristen Stewart as a surprise nominee for the acclaimed Still Alice.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor

My first predictions didn’t include J.K. Simmons for his lauded work in Whiplash, but he could be considered the favorite at this juncture. Staying in are Edward Norton in Birdman and Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher and it’s tough to imagine them not being recognized. For the other two slots, I’m including Miyavi for his villainous role in Unbroken and Ethan Hawke for Boyhood. Left out from my first round: Domhall Gleeson (Unbroken), Logan Lerman (Fury), and Tim Roth (Selma). Other contenders: John Goodman for The Gambler, Tom Wilkinson for Selma, Albert Brooks for A Most Violent Year, Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes, Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice, Robert Duvall in The Judge, and Johnny Depp for Into the Woods.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Miyavi, Unbroken

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress

Following my August estimates, the festival circuit anointed Julianne Moore as a likely front runner for playing an Alzheimer’s patient in Still Alice. I’m also sticking with initial predictions Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild). Since the announcement of her inclusion in this race and not Supporting Actress, Felicity Jones joins the fray for The Theory of Everything. Other possibilities: Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year (who made the cut in August), Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, Shailene Woodley in The Fault in Our Stars, and Hilary Swank for The Homesman.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTRESS:

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

Just like last year, what a crowded field we have! The following quartet seem virtual locks for nominations: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher). The fifth slot is the real mystery. I originally had Joaquin Phoenix here for Inherent Vice, but I’m skeptical now. For now, I’ll replace him with Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. Other possibilities include Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner (who could easily find a way in), Bradley Cooper in American Sniper (same), Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, Bill Murray for St. Vincent, David Oyelowo in Selma (depends on film’s success and critical reception), Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year, Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar (fact that he won last year hurts), Jake Gyllenhall for Nightcrawler (pic is probably too quirky and small), and Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher (Carell likely to steal his thunder).

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTOR:

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Jack O’Connell, Unbroken

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

Only one change here as I’m taking Bennett Miller’s direction for Foxcatcher out and putting David Fincher’s work in Gone Girl in. I think the commercial and critical success of it and Fincher’s reputation as one of Hollywood’s best filmmakers gets him in (at press time). Those who could spoil my predictions: Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Ana DuVernay (Selma), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), and Rob Marshall (Into the Woods).

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

Best Picture

As you may know, anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated in the biggest category of them all. Since that system has been in place, nine pictures have been recognized every time. In August’s predictions, I predicted eight. And now – I’m going with nine. The MLK biopic Selma is the one I’ve removed. Don’t get me wrong – it could still easily make the cut, but no one’s seen it yet and it’s a question mark. Gone Girl and American Sniper enter the race in my opinion and this marks their first inclusion. Other films that could potentially make the cut (even though I say no at the moment): Mr. Turner, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, and Into the Woods.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST PICTURE

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Oscar History: 2007

Tonight on the blog – we review the Oscars from 2007, continuing with my series of Oscar History posts. 2007 was a year in which the brilliant Coen Brothers finally received some Academy love. Their critically lauded No Country for Old Men won Best Picture and earned the twosome the Best Director prize. It’s hard to argue with the Academy’s choice of this terrific pic for the top prize.

In my view, There Will Be Blood would’ve been another deserving recipient and it was nominated for Best Picture, along with Joe Wright’s Atonement, Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton, and Jason Reitman’s Juno. I likely would’ve left Atonement and Juno off the list and considered David Fincher’s meticulously crafted Zodiac and/or Ridley Scott’s American Gangster.

A running theme of my Oscar posts has been the Academy’s consistent lack of comedy inclusion and, for me, the genre’s 2007 highlight was Superbad, one of the finest raunch-fests in quite some time.

I was also a huge fan of Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez’s ode to B movies, Grindhouse.

There Will Be Blood director Paul Thomas Anderson was included in the Best Director race along with Gilroy and Reitman. Atonement director Joe Wright was the lone director left out whose film was nominated and Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was a bit of a surprise nominee. As mentioned, they all lost to the Coens. I would have certainly included Fincher’s work in Zodiac.

The Best Actor race was over as soon as Daniel Day-Lewis’s work in There Will Be Blood was seen and it would mark his second win after being honored for My Left Foot eighteen years earlier. Other nominees (who truly can say it was just an honor to be nominated after Day-Lewis’s tour de force): George Clooney in Michael Clayton, Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd, Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, and Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises.

Nobody plays a calculating bad guy better than Denzel Washington and I probably would have found room for him with his turn in American Gangster.

In the Best Actress race, Marion Cotillard would win for La Vie En Rose – beating out Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away from Her), Laura Linney (The Savages), and Ellen Page (Juno).

Leaving out Keira Knightley’s work in Atonement was a surprise. For my dark horse contender, Christina Ricci’s fearless work in Black Snake Moan might’ve made my cut.

Like the Best Actor category, the Supporting Actor race was over when audiences and critics saw Javier Bardem’s amazing performance in No Country for Old Men. Other nominees: Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War, Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild, and Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton.

Paul Dano’s performance in There Will Be Blood certainly should’ve been acknowledged here. Two others to consider: Robert Downey Jr.’s work as a boozy reporter in Zodiac and Kurt Russell’s hilarious and sadistic role in Grindhouse.

The Supporting Actress race belonged to Tilda Swinton as a ruthless attorney in Michael Clayton. She would win over double nominee Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There, Ruby Dee for American Gangster, Saoirse Ronan in Atonement, and Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone.

I would’ve included Kelly MacDonald as Josh Brolin’s wife in No Country for Old Men.

And there’s my take on the ’07 Oscars, my friends! I’ll have 2008 posted soon.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

We’ve arrived at Day #2 of my first Oscar predictions covering the films of 2014. If you missed my post yesterday on Best Supporting Actress, you may find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

For round 1 of my predictions, I’m just listing my current five predictions, along with other possibilities in races that are just beginning to take shape. Let’s get to Best Supporting Actor, shall we? I will note that my inaugural 2013 picks done around the same time last year correctly yielded 2 of the 5 eventual nominees.

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Supporting Actor

Domhall Gleeson, Unbroken

Logan Lerman, Fury

Edward Norton, Birdman

Tim Roth, Selma

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

 

Other Possibilities:

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice

Albert Brooks, A Most Violent Year

Benicio del Toro, Inherent Vice

Johnny Depp, Into the Woods

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Matthew Goode, Men, Women, and Children

Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

John Lithgow, Love is Strange

Adam Sandler, Men, Women, and Children

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

We’ll get to Best Actress tomorrow!

 

 

 

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time: Nos. 10-6

We have arrived at the Top Ten in my list of the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time this evening. If you missed my first three parts covering numbers 25-11, you can find them here and here and here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/09/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-20-16/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/12/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-15-11/

Onto the top ten with the final five coming tomorrow:

10. Robert Downey, Jr.

Career Earnings: $3 billion

Franchises: The Iron Man, Sherlock Holmes, and Avengers series

Highest Grossing Picture: The Avengers – $623 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8. Iron Man, Tropic Thunder, Sherlock Holmes, Iron Man 2, Due Date, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Avengers, Iron Man 3.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Hugo Pool – $13,000

9. Johnny Depp

Career Earnings: $3 billion

Franchises: The Pirates of the Caribbean series

Highest Grossing Picture: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – $423 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8. Sleepy Hollow, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, Alice in Wonderland, Rango, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Arizona Dream – $112,000

8. Robin Williams

Career Earnings: $3.1 billion

Franchises: The Night at the Museum and Happy Feet series

Highest Grossing Picture: Night at the Museum – $250 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 13. Good Morning, Vietnam, Hook, Aladdin, Mrs. Doubtfire, Jumanji, The Birdcage, Good Will Hunting, Patch Adams, Robots, Happy Feet, Night at the Museum, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

Lowest Grossing Picture: The Secret Agent – $106,000

7. Bruce Willis

Career Earnings: $3.1 billion

Franchises: The Die Hard, Look Who’s Talking, The Expendables, and Red series. Mr. Willis also appeared in the sequel G.I. Joe: Retaliation.

Highest Grossing Picture: The Sixth Sense – $293 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10. Look Who’s Talking, Die Hard 2: Die Harder, Pulp Fiction, Die Hard with a Vengeance, Armageddon, The Sixth Sense, Over the Hedge, Live Free or Die Hard, The Expendables, G.I. Joe: Retaliation.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Lay the Favorite – $20,000

6. Tom Cruise

Career Earnings: $3.3 billion

Franchises: The Mission: Impossible series

Highest Grossing Picture: War of the Worlds – $234 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 17. Top Gun, Rain Man, A Few Good Men, The Firm, Interview with the Vampire, Mission: Impossible, Jerry Maguire, Mission: Impossible II, Vanilla Sky, Minority Report, The Last Samurai, Collateral, War of the Worlds, Mission: Impossible III, Tropic Thunder, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, Edge of Tomorrow.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Losin’ It – $1 million

Top Five coming tomorrow, everyone!

Box Office Predictions: April 18-20

On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.

And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Transcendence

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)

5. A Haunted House 2

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Bears

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time.

Transcendence Box Office Prediction

For cinephiles, this Friday’s Transcendence has been eagerly anticipated not just for Johnny Depp starring in it – but also because it marks the directorial debut of Wally Pfister. He is best known as the cinematographer behind all of Chris Nolan’s pictures, including The Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. The sci-fi thriller is headlined by Depp with a supporting cast including Rebecca Hall, Kate Mara, and Nolan regulars Morgan Freeman and Cillian Murphy.

The participation of Depp makes this high-profile alone, but it’s worth noting he’s had a couple of flops in a row with Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. The trailers for Transcendence have surprisingly been rather middling in my view and they don’t really reflect what the film is about. This could hinder its potential with its opening. Warner Bros. is releasing Transcendence the same weekend as Tom Cruise’s Oblivion last year. That title earned $37 million in its premiere and I’m sure the studio would love to see that number here.

Transcendence should easily nab the #1 spot next weekend but I don’t believe it’ll get quite as high as Cruise’s sci-fi entry. Low 30s seems the safe bet.

Transcendence opening weekend prediction: $30.8 million

For my Heaven Is for Real prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

For my A Haunted House 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Bears prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

The Lone Ranger Movie Review

As 2013 comes to a close, there is little doubt that Gore Verbinski’s The Lone Ranger will be considered the biggest flop of the year. Stories abounded about production delays and problems. Journalists had a field day writing about its bloated budget (said to be at least $250 million) and the end of the box office dominance of star Johnny Depp. The pic’s failure to meet financial expectations is undeniable as it managed only $89 million domestically. For the majority of people who even casually follow the film biz, you’ve probably read nothing positive about The Lone Ranger.

Now that I’ve seen it, I will happily report that there are some positive things to say about this movie. Of course, it’s not all positive. Far from it. Based on an iconic 1930s radio show that later turned into TV series and films, the 2013 version is given the Gore Verbinski/producer Jerry Bruckheimer treatment. In other words, it’s given the Pirates of the Caribbean treatment.

And that means Johnny Depp as Tonto, the sidekick of John Reid aka The Lone Ranger (Armie Hammer). The Western is mostly set in 1869 (it’s told in flashback by Tonto when he’s a very old man) and Reid is a dignified attorney turned masked vigilante after his brother and his team of Texas Rangers are gunned down. The culprits are led by outlaw Butch Cavendish (William Fichtner). Comanche Indian Tonto has his own reasons to help his Ranger partner as seeks to bring justice to those responsible for killing his tribe when he was a child.

Along the way, we get a fairly generous helping of high-octane action sequences and a lot of humorous banter between the two leads. So does it work? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. And a lot of The Lone Ranger‘s effectiveness lies with its performers. Critics and journalists seemed to have their knives sharpened for Depp by the time this premiered. In some respects, I can understand why. It was ten years ago that Mr. Depp became a box office sensation with Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. What set that pic apart for Depp (after a film career that was already terrific though lacking in hits) was the thrill of seeing a truly great actor bring his glorious quirkiness into a blockbuster setting. Now it’s unfortunately begin to feel a bit old hat. It hasn’t helped that the pictures he’s chosen simply aren’t on the original Pirates popcorn level. This holds true for Depp as Quirky Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland, Quirky Vampire in Dark Shadows, Quirky Captain Sparrow in the subpar Pirates sequels, and yes, as Quirky Tonto. Almost as if to accentuate my point, there’s even one moment in this film when Depp literally kicks a dead horse.

That said, Depp’s Tonto has his share of chemistry with Hammer’s Lone Ranger. Mr. Hammer became known to filmgoers in not one, but two roles in David Fincher’s The Social Network. There are moments here when his comedic timing is off, but he mostly pulls off a rather unchallenging role.

As the villain, Fichtner doesn’t have much to do except look dirty. Indeed his creepiest role shall remain the police officer/Amway-type distributor in Doug Liman’s Go. Alas Fichtner turns out to not be the film’s only baddie. That reveal is meant to come as a surprise, but you’ll likely see it coming from a mile away. When an Oscar-nominated actor is cast in a part that seems pointless for two-thirds of the running time, he’s probably gonna turn out bad. If you’re interested in finding out who that talented actor is, I’ll let you look it up. Other familiar faces in The Lone Ranger include Helena Bonham-Carter in a glorified cameo as a brothel owner, James Badge Dale as the slain brother ranger, and Ruth Wilson as his widow who may have married the wrong brother.

Director Verbinski helmed the first three Pirates features and a complaint with them is a complaint here: the movie seems bloated and its 150 minute runtime often seems unnecessary. Depp has his moments. Even though we’ve seen this bag of tricks from him before, there’s no doubt Depp has impeccable timing when it comes to comedy and there are ample opportunities for him to display it.

Ultimately, The Lone Ranger mostly plods amiably for about two hours with some decent action and passable chemistry between its leads. However, it also features major shifts in tone that range from slapstick to more serious business when it comes to the relationships between settlers and Native Americans. Due to that, Ranger frequently feels like a different movie from scene to scene. For all those reasons, the picture often feels like a misfire, albeit an often entertaining one.

And then we get the climactic train sequence. Or, better yet, trains (plural) sequence as our main characters jump from rapidly moving locomotive to another to try and save the day. We as an audience are programmed to expect an impressive all-out action/adventure fest in the final moments of something like this. And I’ll be damned if this one isn’t really impressive. And I’m talking impressive in a way that makes the first two hours seem worth sitting through – flaws and all.

That said, I can’t ignore that most of The Lone Ranger doesn’t work very well. It’s not anywhere near as bad as its reputation though.

**1/2 (out of four)