Blumhouse Productions and Universal Pictures are hopeful horror fans will be game for TruthorDare next weekend. Debuting on Friday the 13th, the film puts a scary spin on the time honored contest that we all familiarized ourselves with in our teens. That’s the target audience that it wishes to reach. Jeff Wadlow, who directed Kick–Ass2, is behind the camera with a cast including Lucy Hale, Tyler Posey, Violett Beane, Hayden Szeto, and Landon Liboiron.
Originally scheduled to premiere on April 27, the pic wisely moved off that weekend when Iron Man, Black Panther, and other Avengers claimed it. However, the current release date poses its own problems as fellow genre title AQuietPlace will be in its sophomore frame and likely still making noise.
That said, Blumhouse has a knack for turning low-budget fright fests into hits. They’ve just come off a banner 2017 that included Split, GetOut, and HappyDeathDay. I don’t, however, feel TruthorDare will manage that trio’s grosses. I’ll estimate a debut in the mid teens range.
TruthorDare opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
HappyDeathDay begins with a universal disruption. Not the world suffering a catastrophe or anything of that sort, but the actual Universal logo repeating itself three times. It’s a signal of events to come in this horror version of GroundhogDay from the Blumhouse studio, which specializes in bargain basement budgeted genre pics.
The world as a whole may not be experiencing a crisis, but college student Tree (Jessica Rothe) sure is. Her birthday begins as many do for undergraduates. She wakes up in the dorm room of Carter (Israel Broussard) after a drunken night out. Not remembering the previous evening’s events, Tree makes a hasty exit complete with shame walking. She attends class where we learn she’s carrying on an affair with her professor. Tree doesn’t really gel with her sorority sisters, including her kindly roommate (Ruby Modine).
In fact, unlike most of the heroines in slasher flicks, Tree is a pretty unpleasant person. And she’s not that innocent. So I’ll give a bit of credit to screenwriter Scott Lobdell for changing that up, even if it makes her a smidge tougher to root for. When Tree goes out for another night of frivolity, she’s stalked and stabbed by a figure donning the mask of the university’s mascot.
And then… she wakes up on her birthday again nursing a hangover in Carter’s dorm room. Unlike Bill Murray rising to the sounds of Sonny and Cher, she repeats her day less than 20 times as she tries to figure out who’s knocking her off. Along the way, we learn some of the root causes of her unpleasantness. She’s mourning the loss of her mom for one. That death factors into the mix.
HappyDeathDay has a sense of humor, which is often a good thing. GroundhogDay is mentioned as it would seem foolish not to (the title has become synonymous with anything repeating itself). Rothe is convincing as the bratty coed. Director Christopher B. Landon employs a handful of effective jump scares. The 90 minute runtime is a wise choice as the concept may not be able to sustain much more.
This is an easy and brisk watch. The PG-13 rating decision is a curious one and this may have been better served with more of the gore and aforementioned frivolity actually on display. HappyDeathDay probably won’t stick in your memory for long, but it’s not a complete disruption of your time.
As 2018 is nearly upon us, today begins an exploration on what and who made a lasting impression on film in 2017. And it does start with a what – in this case, a studio.
Blumhouse Productions, founded by Jason Blum, kicked off in 2009 with found footage hit ParanormalActivity. It was a massive money maker that spawned numerous sequels. From then on, Blumhouse became known for their low-budget horror flicks. This includes the Insidious, Ouija, Purge, and Sinister franchises.
Yet 2017 has marked their banner year. This started immediately in January with M. Night Shyamalan’s comeback pic Split, which debuted to $40 million and earned $138 million overall domestically. Shyamalan will be working with the studio once again with its spin-off/sequel Glass, due in 2019.
The success kept going in February with the release of Jordan Peele’s GetOut. Earning $33 million out of the gate, the acclaimed horror comedy went on to make $175 million. It’s even garnering Oscar buzz, something rare for Blumhouse (a notable exception was 2014’s Whiplash).
In the fall, HappyDeathDay premiered to $26 million and $55 million total. Not all of the studio’s offerings landed with audiences this year, including TheBelkoExperiment, BirthoftheDragon, and Sleight.
Still, there’s little doubt 2017 has offered Blumhouse its most high-profile successes. 2018 will look to replicate the wins with new Purge and Insidious editions and a reboot of the Halloween franchise.
My look back on the winners in 2017 onscreen will continue…
The month of November looks to awaken a sleepy box office with the release of two high-profile sequels: Marvel’s threequel Thor: Ragnarok and comedic follow-up A Bad Moms Christmas. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Ragnarok is likely to be the first pic in the Thor franchise that reaches over $100 million in its first weekend. With very positive reviews and a strong international debut over the weekend, all the signs are there.
A Bad Moms Christmas opens on Wednesday to give it some breathing room from the Marvel Cinematic Universe juggernaut and I have it earning mid 20s for the five-day and high teens for the traditional three-day.
The rest of the top five should see low grosses from holdovers. Jigsaw had a mediocre debut atop the charts over Halloween weekend (more on that below) and looks to suffer a large decline in its sophomore frame. Boo 2! and Geostorm (or perhaps even Happy Death Day if Geostorm has a large enough decline) should fill the rest of the slots.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $107.6 million
2. A Bad Moms Christmas
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Jigsaw
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 64%)
4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)
5. Geostorm
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (October 27-29)
It was expected to be a slow weekend and it certainly was that with the #1 movie doing just OK and other newbies performing even worse. Jigsaw managed a #1 debut with $16.6 million (a bit ahead of my $14.8 million prediction). That’s the second lowest of the eight features in the Saw franchise.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween dropped to second with $10 million (I went higher at $12.2 million) to bring its two-week tally to $35 million.
Geostorm was third with $5.9 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring its lackluster total to $23 million.
Happy Death Day was fourth with $5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. The low-budget Blumhouse horror pic brought its solid total to $48 million.
I also whiffed on having Blade Runner 2049 outside the top 5 (thanks under performing newcomers). It earned $4.1 million for an overall gross of $81 million.
Thank You for Your Service, the Miles Teller war drama, underwhelmed in sixth place with $3.8 million, under my $5.4 million forecast. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t get audiences interested enough in this case.
Last (and certainly least in this case), Suburbicon was an absolute disaster, opening in 9th place with just $2.8 million. I was considerably higher at $7.3M. George Clooney’s poorly reviewed crime comedy with Matt Damon stands as one of the worst wide performers of the year.
Before an onslaught of high-profile November titles hit the market, October should close out rather quietly at the box office in this Halloween weekend. There are three new entries making their wide debuts: continuation of the Saw franchise Jigsaw, the Matt Damon starring/George Clooney directed crime comedy Suburbicon, and Miles Teller war drama Thank You for Your Service. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions posts on each here:
There are numerous factors that may contribute to this weekend being a slow one. The last frame of October is typically pretty ho-hum regardless. There’s also the matter of a little Netflix show called Stranger Things premiering that could divert eyeballs onto the small screen and not the large one.
The seven year lay-off between Saw pictures could cause a muted debut for Jigsaw. Its number should still be enough to nab the #1 spot, however. Boo 2! should slip to second. It’s worth noting that the original Boo dropped just 39% in its sophomore outing last year over the same Halloween weekend. I have this dipping just a bit more.
I’m not expecting much from Suburbicon or Service and they could end up in a close race with the second weekend of Geostorm (which I expect to have a big drop).
Bottom line: Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas should awaken the charts when November comes and here are my top 5 projections for this weekend:
1. Jigsaw
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. Suburbicon
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. Geostorm
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Thank You for Your Service
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (October 20-22)
As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween topped the charts with $21.2 million, a tad under my $22.6 million prediction. It falls about $7 million short of its predecessor one year ago, but marks the sixth Madea feature to open #1.
Geostorm ranked highest among the five debuts with $13.7 million, above my $11.2M projection. However, with its massive reported $120 million budget, this is a serious flop for Warner Bros.
Happy Death Day dropped to third with $9.3 million, below my $11.8M take to bring its two-week total to $40 million. With only a $5 million budget, this is quite the cash cow for Blumhouse.
Blade Runner 2049 was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. In weekend #3, it earned $7.3 million to bring its disappointing tally to $74 million.
Opening in fifth was the firefighter drama Only the Brave with a meager $6 million, which is on the low-end of expectations and well below my generous $10 million projection.
The Snowman with Michael Fassbender got a chilly reception from audiences in 8th place with just $3.3 million, way below my $8 million forecast.
Lastly, Same Kind of Different as Me flopped in 12th place, opening to $2.5 million. I was right on target with my $2.6 million estimate.
Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.
Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.
We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo2! AMadeaHalloween, firefighter drama OnlytheBrave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller TheSnowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I don’t have Boo2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.
It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ HappyDeathDay scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.
OnlytheBrave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and TheSnowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.
There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature SameKindofDifferentasMe with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Boo2! AMadeaHalloween
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
2. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for HappyDeathDay, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and GetOut having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.
BladeRunner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.
Jackie Chan’s TheForeigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.
It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.
TheMountainBetweenUs rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!
Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).
After a weekend where no new releases performed particularly well, we could be in for a similar situation this weekend. Though one newbie should manage to just clear $20 million. We have low-budget horror pic HappyDeathDay, Jackie Chan action thriller TheForeigner, and Chadwick Boseman led biopic Marshall debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The October Friday the 13th should bode rather well for HappyDeathDay. With the underwhelming performance of BladeRunner2049 (more on that below), I have Death slated for a first place showing in the low 20s and it could climb a bit higher.
Blade should slip to the runner-up position with TheForeigner in third. I have holdovers It and TheMountainBetweenUs rounding out the top five.
Marshall is only premiering on approximately 800 screens and my $4 million estimate for it puts it well outside the top 5. There is another apparent wide debut with ProfessorMarston & theWonderWomen. It stars Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall in the true life story of the man who created Wonder Woman. While it’s timed to capitalize on the summer’s biggest blockbuster, I’ll say it only manages maybe $2 million (there’s no theater count so I may revise that figure).
And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:
1. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
2. BladeRunner2049
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. TheForeigner
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. It
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. TheMountainBetweenUs
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 46%)
BoxOfficeResults (October6–8)
As mentioned, pricey long time in the making sequel BladeRunner2049 stalled in its opening weekend with $32.7 million, well below all expectations including my own $52.1M forecast. Despite glowing reviews, audiences simply didn’t come out for it as expected.
The Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster romance TheMountainBetweenUs debuted in second with a so-so $10.5 million, just above my $9.2M prediction.
It was third with $9.9 million (I said $9.3M) as it crossed the triple century mark at $305 million overall.
MyLittlePony: TheMovie was fourth out of the gate with just $8.8 million, under my $10.9M estimate.
Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I predicted $8M) for $80 million total.
In weekend #2, Tom Cruise’s AmericanMade fell to sixth with $8.4 million compared to my $8.9M projection. It’s earned $30 million in ten days.
Timing is sometimes everything at the box office and that factor could boost Happy Death Day to a lively opening. The pic is essentially a horror version of Groundhog Day with a woman waking on the same day that happens to be the date of her demise. Christopher B. Landon, who last made Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, directs with a cast made up of relative unknowns including Jessica Rothe and Israel Broussard.
Death comes from Blumhouse Productions, which specializes in low-budget genre flicks. 2017 has been a very happy year for the studio, with fright pic breakouts Split and Get Out. The budget is reportedly just a teeny $5 million. Regarding its release date, it has the benefit of premiering on a Friday the 13th in October (a good month for the genre). It should also help that It is finally slowing down at multiplexes, so genre enthusiasts may be ready for another horror fix.
High teens to possibly low 20s seems reachable here.
Happy Death Day opening weekend prediction: $20.6 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 