Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.
Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.
Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.
Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here:
A franchise can’t run out of steam if it never gathered any to begin with. That is the legacy of the FiftyShades films and it climaxes limply with FiftyShadesFreed. The third and final (!) entry in the romantic saga of Christian Grey (Jamie Dornan) and Anastasia Steele-Grey (Dakota Johnson), we open with the lovebirds tying the knot. And by tying the knot, I mean they’re getting married and not just tying some knot as part of their wild sex escapades. We’ve seen that before and it’s a major reason why the pictures (based on the E.L. James bestsellers) have their legions of fans.
Their wedded bliss is relatively short-lived, though describing anything as short-lived is generous in this sluggishly paced series. For one thing, Ana’s stalker Jack (Eric Johnson) is causing mischief once again. There’s also feelings of jealousy happening with Christian’s former flame (Kim Basinger). That subplot actually gets less screen time than the relationship woes of Ana’s best bud (Eloise Mumford) and Christian’s brother (Luke Grimes). What do these storylines have in common? None of them are interesting. For a trilogy wanting to burst with lustful excitement, Freed and its predecessors have been so very listless.
I was never familiar with the source material from which these movies were spawned. Upon viewing FiftyShadesofGrey for the first time, I was more than willing to keep an open mind and try to understand how the novels become phenomenons. Three tales later, I just don’t get it and that certainly applies to its cinematic renderings. The performances of Johnson and Dornan still come across as flat. My previous descriptions of the “hot scenes” being no more gripping than late night Cinemax still stands (the writing is no better either).
Thankfully I can now officially close that once open mind when it comes to Christian and Anastasia. I am freed.
Marvel’s Black Panther should continue its momentous run atop the box office as two newbies compete for action fan attention. They are Red Sparrow with Jennifer Lawrence and Death Wish starring Bruce Willis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Not long ago, I might have estimated Red Sparrow would easily top Death Wish in their head to head. However, I’m beginning to believe it might be a fairly close race for the runner-up spot to Panther. That said, I’m still giving Katniss the edge over John McClane… or Joy over Hudson Hawk if you want to go less obvious.
Holdovers Game Night and Peter Rabbit should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $65.4 million
2. Red Sparrow
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million
3. Death Wish
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
4. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Black Panther continued to confound prognosticators with its amazing run. In its sophomore frame, the Marvel phenomenon grossed $111.6 million, surging past my $101.8 million forecast. Incredibly, that gives it the #2 largest second weekend of all time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Game Night debuted in second with a solid $17 million, capitalizing on positive reviews and a dearth of comedies to choose from. It opened in line with my $16.3 million estimate.
Peter Rabbit was third with $12.7 million in weekend #3 (I said $11.6 million) for $71 million overall.
Annihilation with Natalie Portman, despite glowing critical reception, struggled in fourth with $11 million – just edging my $10.4 million projection. While critics are digging it, audiences only gave it a C Cinemascore grade. Look for it to fade quickly.
Fifty Shades Freed rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.9 million) to bring its tally to $89 million.
Finally, the YA romantic drama Every Day opened meekly in ninth with $3 million, right in line with my $2.9 million estimate.
The domination of Black Panther should continue at the box office in full force this weekend, but we do have some new titles debuting. The Jason Bateman/Rachel McAdams comedy Game Night and Natalie Portman led sci-fi thriller Annihilation hit screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
There’s also Every Day, a romantic drama based on a YA novel that’s rolling out on roughly 1650 screens. It seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and I didn’t do an individual post on it. I’ll estimate it only generates $2.9 million in sales.
As for the more high-profile newbies, Game Night appears poised for a second place showing. Annihilation is more of a question mark in my mind. Depending on the drop that Peter Rabbit experiences in its third weekend, it could be third or fourth with Fifty Shades Freed rounding out the top five.
Black Panther will easily rule the charts after its historic and record breaking premiere (more on that below). The Marvel phenomenon could top $100 million in its sophomore frame and that would put it fourth all time as far as #2 weekends go. That said, it pretty much blew away all expectations over the long weekend so maybe it gets to over $100 million.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $101.8 million
2. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Annihilation
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
5. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (February 16-19)
It was an absolutely incredible debut for Black Panther as the critically acclaimed comic book adaptation smashed the February record and then some. Panther took in $242.1 million over the President’s Day frame, blasting past my $193.8 million estimate. Deadpool was the previous February high at $152 million. Its Friday to Sunday haul of $202 million gave it the fifth largest domestic opening of all time – right behind MCU counterpart The Avengers. Its Monday gross of $40.1 million stands as the highest Monday gross of all time – just edging out Star Wars: The Force Awakens by a few thousand bucks. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, look for Panther to continue its run for the ages into the next several weekends.
Peter Rabbit stayed put in the runner-up position with $23.3 million, hopping a touch over my $20.9 million prediction for a two-week tally of $54 million.
Fifty Shades Freed dropped to third with $19.4 million, a bit ahead of my $17 million estimate. In its two weeks of release, the threequel has taken in $78 million.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle took the four spot with $10 million, right in line with my $9.6 million projection for $379 million overall.
The 15:17 to Paris rounded out the top five with $8.9 million (I said $7.9 million) for $26 million thus far.
Stop-motion animated feature Early Man, despite mostly solid reviews, didn’t connect with family audiences. The pic opened in seventh with only $4.2 million compared to my prediction of $5.7 million.
Lastly, the Biblical drama Samson made no impact with moviegoers with just $2.2 million, not even matching my $3.1 million forecast.
Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): And my Panther estimate continues to go up. Now at $193.8 million
Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of their premieres, I’m making the following adjustments: revising Panther up from $168.8M to $178.8M; Early Man from $5.4M to $5.7M; and Samson from $2.2M to $3.1M.
It should be a commanding weekend for Marvel’s Black Panther as it opens over President’s Day in what could be a record-breaking February debut. We also have the stop-motion animated feature Early Man premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Panther sprints into theaters with red hot word-of-mouth and sizzling reviews. The film appears to have entered into true event picture territory and it has sky high expectations. In order to blast through the current February record, it would need to eclipse Deadpool from two years ago, which also opened over the four-day POTUS frame. That movie earned $132 million from Friday to Sunday and $152 million when including Monday. My Panther estimate has Chadwick Boseman and company exceeding that.
I’m not expecting much from Early Man, which will experience severe competition from the second weekend of Peter Rabbit (likely to remain #2) and all the kiddos flocking to Panther. My $5.7 million forecast for it puts it outside the top 5.
I didn’t do an individual prediction post for Samson, a Biblical drama from Pure Flix that’s slated to open on around 1200 screens. I’ve got it pegged at just $3.1 million.
As mentioned, I see Rabbit retaining the number two spot while Fifty Shades Freed seems likely to drop to third. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The 15:17 to Paris should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the four-day holiday weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $193.8 million
2. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $17 million
4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. The 15:17 to Paris
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (February 9-11)
Fifty Shades Freed closed out the franchise this weekend with the lowest debut of the three features, as anticipated. The final pairing of Anastasia and Christian took in $38.5 million, right on target with my $38.4 million estimate. The good news for Fifty? Its total this weekend including international sales brought the series overall to a billion dollars worldwide.
Peter Rabbit hopped into the second position with a strong $25 million, eclipsing my $18.7 million prediction. The family friendly tale (or tail if you will) looks to continue its impressive grosses in its sophomore frame where it should experience a smallish dip.
Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris opened in third to a middling $12.5 million, just below my $13.1 million projection. Mostly negative reviews likely didn’t help.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was fourth with $10 million (I was lower at $8.6 million) for a grand tally of $365 million.
The Greatest Showman rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was in line with my $6.3 million forecast) for $146 million total.
After a sluggish frame to start the month of February, things should be looking up this weekend as three higher profile titles debut: threequel Fifty Shades Freed, animated/live-action pic Peter Rabbit, and Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, the trio of newcomers should rather easily populate numbers 1-3 with Freed leading the charge, albeit with less dollars coming in than either of its predecessors. Rabbit should sit in the two spot with 15:17 third.
That means Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should fall to fourth and I’ll project The Greatest Showman remains in the top five with its continued smallish declines.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. The 15:17 to Paris
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (February 2-4)
In a quiet Super Bowl weekend, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle swung back into the top spot with $10.9 million, a bit below my $12.4 million forecast. The mega hit has amassed $352 million overall.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure dropped to second with $10.4 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection for a two-week tally of $40 million.
The weekend’s only newcomer, Helen Mirren horror pic Winchester, debuted in third to a mediocre $9.3 million. I was close with $9.1 million. It did manage to garner the best per screen average of the top five. That said, look for it to drop big next weekend.
The Greatest Showman was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $7.9 million) for $137 million total.
The Post was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It made $5.2 million and it stands at $67 million.
Hostiles was sixth at $5.1 million (I said $5.8 million) for $20 million in sales.
Blogger’s Note (02/08): I am revising my prediction from $15.1 million to $13.1 million
Recounting the 2015 attempted train attack en route to France’s capital city, Clint Eastwood’s The15:17toParis hits theaters next weekend. The true life thriller uses the interesting tactic of having the real life heroes that thwarted the attack (Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos, and Spencer Stone) playing themselves. They’re alongside familiar actors including Jenna Fischer, Judy Greer, and Jaleel White (known to you and I as Urkel from TV’s “Family Matters”).
Just over three years ago, Mr. Eastwood found his greatest box office success with AmericanSniper. This pic isn’t expected to gross anywhere near that, but it could manage to bring in an older audience who will have little to do with the two competitors debuting against it (FiftyShadesFreed and PeterRabbit).
I could see 15:17 opening right around its title numbers and comparable to what 12Strong made out of the gate just a couple weeks ago.
The15:17toParis opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For the third Valentine’s Day frame in the past four years, the romantic adventures of Anastasia and Christian will be on display for moviegoers when Fifty Shades Freed opens next weekend. Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan return with James Foley (who made previous entry Fifty Shades Darker) directing. Costars include Kim Basinger, Eric Johnson, Marcia Gay Harden, and Rita Ora.
This is the third and final chapter of the franchise based on E.L. James’s sultry bestsellers. The trailer reminds us to not miss the climax (get it?). The series has been a popular one for Universal Pictures, but there was a significant dip between 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey and 2017 sequel Darker. Three years ago, Grey premiered to $85 million with an eventual $166 million domestic haul. Darker managed $46 million for its start with $114 million overall.
Freed appears likely to follow that downward trend, but its drop shouldn’t be nearly as pronounced as the last one. Current estimates have this hovering around the $40 million mark and that seems about right. I’ll say it falls just under that as fans bid farewell to Mr. and Mrs. Grey.
Fifty Shades Freed opening weekend prediction: $38.4 million
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