After six features and a nearly half decade period of dormancy, a franchise is rebooted as Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City debuts over the long Thanksgiving frame. Sony Pictures is hoping the series still has a semblance of a rabid fanbase, but its domestic opening could mark the lowest of the bunch thus far.
The video gamed based horror series began in 2002 and this marks the first without the involvement of director Paul W.S. Anderson and star Milla Jovovich. Johannes Roberts, best known for the two 47 Meters Down flicks, is behind the camera and wrote the script. The cast includes Kaya Scodelario, Hannah John-Kamen, Robbie Amell, Tom Hopper, Donal Logue, and Neal McDonough.
Evil‘s trajectory stateside has not matched the overseas earnings. Volumes II-V all opened consistently between $21-$26 million (it’s worth noting that all entries have been very front loaded in terms of overall gross). 2017’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter took in $13 million for a weak start with $26 million total. On the plus side, it made the most of all six in terms of international haul ($314 million).
Perhaps Raccoon will manage profits elsewhere, but I don’t see it happening over here. I’ll predict it may not hit the $13 million achieved by its predecessor and I’m referring to the five-day take.
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $11.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The trailers have already inspired plenty of memes and GIFs and soon we’ll know if audiences are inspired to check out House of Gucci in theaters. From director Ridley Scott, the flashy crime drama centered on the fashion family is out November 24th over the long Thanksgiving weekend. It’s filled with Academy players like Lady Gaga (in her second major role after her Oscar nominated turn in A Star Is Born), Adam Driver, Jared Leto, Jeremy Irons, Salma Hayek, and Al Pacino.
While the review embargo is not yet up, plenty of reactions have come from screenings and they are very mixed. Despite the prevalence of award winning thespians, it appears doubtful that Gucci will be a significant Oscar contender (though Gaga and Leto could get in). The varied buzz could prevent some moviegoers from checking in and adult dramas have struggled mightily in the COVID era. Just last month, Scott’s own The Last Duel was a high priced bomb.
I do believe the curiosity factor will be higher for Gucci than Duel and it also helps that Gaga has plenty of ardent followers who should turn up. That said, a debut in the lower double digits for the traditional frame and close to $2o million for the five-day is probably where this lands.
House of Gucci opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $19.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Disney has a history opening their animated product over the long Thanksgiving holiday and they’re back at it with Encanto. The Columbian themed musical fantasy comes from directors Byron Howard and Jared Bush, the creative team behind Zootopia. Featuring music from Lin-Manuel Miranda, the voice cast includes Stephanie Beatriz, John Leguizamo, Diane Guerrero, and Wilmer Valderrama.
Reviews are where they need to be with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Mouse Factory rolled out their hits over the same five-day period from 2015-2018. Six years ago, the strategy produced the lowest premiere of the bunch with The Good Dinosaur. It made $39 million for the traditional Turkey Day weekend and $55 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. The high point came a year later when Moana did $56 million and $82 million respectively. 2017’s Coco took in $50 million from Friday to Sunday and $72 million for the five-day. Ralph Breaks the Internet posted $56 million and $84 million the following Thanksgiving.
The Dinosaur haul was considered a disappointment, but that was during a pre-COVID era. If Encanto accomplishes what that pic did, it would be considered more than satisfactory. Family audiences have proven they’re up for a trip to the theater and have done so in the past few days. Clifford the Big Red Dog was a good boy at the box office when it lapped up $16 million last weekend from Friday to Sunday and $22 million overall as it started on Wednesday as well. If Clifford can do that, I imagine Encanto could double those grosses.
Encanto opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
**Blogger’s Note (11/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my King Richard estimate down from $11.2M to $9.2M
Ghostbusters: Afterlife looks to spook up a healthy #1 debut and Will Smith’s Oscar hopeful King Richard debuts in theaters and HBO Max. They’re the newbies out on the pre Thanksgiving frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m on the lower end of estimates with Afterlife (high 30s) as I’m unsure how much anticipation is truly built up for the newest iteration of the franchise (just five years after a reboot failed to meet expectations). It’ll certainly open atop the charts and hope for a leggy run with the holidays almost underway.
King Richard could open anywhere from 2nd to 4th. The HBO Max simultaneous premiere will siphon away some viewers, but I’m actually on the higher end of the range here and think it could surpass double digits (placing it third behind the third frame of Eternals).
Clifford the Big Red Dog had a much better than anticipated start and its sophomore decline could be around 35-40% as it should experience a much smaller drop over Turkey Day. Dune should take the five spot.
Here’s how I see it going down:
1. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
2. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
3. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. King Richard
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Dune
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (November 12-14)
The sophomore fall for Eternals wasn’t quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. The MCU title, which has drawn mixed audience and critical notices, dropped 62% (not abnormal for its franchise) to $26.8 million. That’s ahead of my $23.2 million estimate. The ten-day gross is $118 million.
Clifford the Big Red Dog had a terrific start in second with $16.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $22.2 million since its Wednesday premiere – dwarfing my respective takes of $11.8 million and $17.6 million. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for Dog to leg out commendably with the holiday season nearly upon us.
Dune was third with $5.5 million compared to my $4.9 million prediction and it stands at $93 million.
No Time to Die took the four spot at $4.5 million (I said $4.3 million) to bring it to $150 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage rounded out the top five with $3.9 million, a bit ahead of my $3.4 million projection. The sequel hit a milestone as it’s up to $202 million.
Finally, Oscar hopeful Belfast (out on 580 screens) debuted in seventh with $1.7 million. I was a bit more generous with $2.3 million. Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama will look to stick around with awards season approaching.
**Blogger’s Note (11/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my King Richard estimate down from $11.2M to $9.2M
Will Smith may be primed for his first Oscar win in King Richard, which is served up for audiences on November 19th in theaters and HBO Max. The sports drama casts its lead as Richard Williams, father of tennis superstars Venus and Serena. Reinaldo Marcus Green directs with a supporting cast featuring Aunjanue Ellis, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Tony Goldwyn, and Jon Bernthal.
Following its September premiere at Telluride, awards buzz started immediately and it currently sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a new autobiography out this week, Smith has been highly visible as Richard is set for release.
Adult themed dramas have struggled mightily during the COVID era and the pic’s availability on HBO’s streamer could certainly eat into the grosses. However, with the Oscar chatter going, I do think this could top the $10 million estimate that’s out there (though probably not by much). It should also manage to play well over subsequent weekends.
King Richard opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
For my Ghostbusters: Afterlife prediction, click here:
It’s in with the old and in with the new as Ghostbusters: Afterlife debuts in theaters November 19th. This was originally scheduled to haunt multiplexes in the summer of 2020 before numerous COVID delays. Jason Reitman directs and there’s some family legacy involved as dad Ivan made parts I and II in 1984 and 1989. Newcomers to the series include Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Tracy Letts, and Paul Rudd (not to mention Stay Puft Marshmallow Minis according to the trailer). Returnees from the 80s are Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and Sigourney Weaver.
If rebooting this franchise sounds familiar – that’s because it happened five years ago to middling results. The Paul Feig helmed remake led by Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig took in $46 million on its opening weekend but fizzled quickly due to so-so reviews and audience reaction. It also featured the OG Busters making cameos. This new iteration serves as a direct sequel to the first two.
Some estimates have Afterlife beginning at $50 million or above. That’s certainly doable, but I’m not so sure. While it’s obviously a well-known property and the ’84 original is rightly considered a classic, both follow-ups have been letdowns. The 71% Rotten Tomatoes score is OK, but its actually below the 74% that greeted the ballyhooed 2016 pic.
I’m projecting that this makes it to $35-$40 million and doesn’t get to the number we saw just a half decade back.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
The eyes of box office prognosticators will be focused on the second frame for Marvel’s Eternals. It should have no trouble repeating in the top spot, but its drop could be significant following mixed audience and critical reactions. We do have some newcomers: Clifford the Big Red Dog and potential Oscar favorite Belfast from Kenneth Branagh (debuting on roughly 600 screens). You can find peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Clifford is getting a jump on the weekend by opening Wednesday (with early previews Tuesday). That could be a shrewd move considering kiddos are off on Thursday for Veterans Day. It should firmly plant itself in the #2 spot after Eternals.
As for Belfast, the awards chatter should help it achieve a decent per theater average. It will look to play steadily for weeks over the Oscar season. My $2.3 million estimate leaves it outside the top five.
Back to Eternals. The B Cinemascore grade is rather troubling for its sophomore outing (most MCU titles get an A). With audiences clearly not digging it in the way they typically greet the studio’s material, a drop in the low to even high 60s seems where this is headed.
Holdovers Dune, No Time to Die, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage should fill the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it going down:
1. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
2. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Dune
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (November 5-7)
The shaky WOM for Eternals undoubtedly impacted its earnings as the Chloe Zhao effort took in $71.2 million, under my $77.8 million projection. That would be a fantastic debut for almost anything not MCU related. However, Eternals premiere is the smallest for Marvel since 2015’s Ant-Man. As mentioned, it could be headed for a precipitous drop in weekend #2.
Dune slipped to second after two weeks on top with $7.7 million (I said $7.2 million). The sci-fi epic has amassed $84 million in three weeks.
No Time to Die held up very well for third in its fifth go-round at $6 million – higher than my $4.8 million take. Total is $143 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage hit the four spot at $4.4 million compared to my $3.8 million projection. It’s nearing the double century mark with $197 million.
Ron’s Gone Wrong, which I was wrong about staying in the top five, was fifth at $3.5 million for a two-week total of $17 million.
The French Dispatch from Wes Anderson expanded its screen count and made $2.5 million for sixth place with $8 million overall.
Halloween Kills fell hard with its namesake holiday having passed. The $2.3 million gross for seventh (I was more generous at $3 million) brought the earnings to $84 million.
Finally, the Princess Diana biopic Spencer with Kristen Stewart couldn’t reach my prognosis. Starting out in nearly 1000 venues, the $2.1 million haul was just over half of my $4.1 million prediction. It will hope that Oscar buzz for its lead will contribute to small declines in coming days.
Kenneth Branagh has had a varied directorial output over the last three decades plus from his Shakespearian works (Henry V, Much Ado About Nothing, Hamlet) to franchise entries (Thor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit) to adaptations of beloved novels like Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein and Murder on the Orient Express. His latest is Belfast and the coming-of-age tale (which Branagh also wrote) is said to be his most personal pic as it focuses on a young boy growing up in Northern Island during the 1960s. The black and white drama is also a serious Oscar contender and it’s currently the frontrunner for Best Picture. Newcomer Jude Hill stars with a supporting cast (who could all be Academy nominated) featuring Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciaran Hinds.
The Academy hopeful hits 600 screens on November 12th with plans for a lengthy play over the awards season. The Oscar buzz should get it off to a solid start on the relatively low number of screens. Assuming a per screen average in the $4000-4500 range, we could be talking $2-3 million as it’s likely to perform steadily over the next several weeks.
Belfast opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
For my Clifford the Big Red Dog prediction (which is not the Best Picture frontrunner), click here:
Arriving in theaters on Wednesday, November 10th, Clifford the Big Red Dog hopes to take a bite out of the family box office. Based on the 1963 bestseller by Norman Bridwell, Walt Becker directs. He’s no stranger to pictures about creatures or with animals in the title (Wild Hogs, Old Dogs, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip). Actors on screen or voicing our furry friends include David Alan Grier (providing Clifford’s words), Darby Camp, Jack Whitehall, John Cleese, Russell Wong, Paul Rodriguez, Tony Hale, Russell Peters, Sienna Guillory, Kenan Thompson, and Rosie Perez.
Originally slated for November 2020 before its COVID delay, this giant good boy will premiere simultaneously in multiplexes and Paramount+. That could cause some parents and kids to view at home (though this streamer doesn’t yet have the reach of others). I do question how much clamoring there is for a Clifford pic in general and I don’t foresee a big red-hot start.
With the midweek debut, I look for this to hover around low double digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with low to mid teens for the five-day rollout.
Clifford the Big Red Dog opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Note (11/03): I’ve seen some unconfirmed data indicating Spencer will open on just under 1000 screens. If that holds true, I’m revising my estimate from $4.6M to $4.1M.
Kristen Stewart appears destined to make plenty of red carpet trips next year with her performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Directed by Pablo Larrain (who last tackled American royalty with Natalie Portman as Jackie), the pic looks to be an awards contender for its star and in several other categories. Costars include Jack Farthing (as Prince Charles), Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall, and Sean Harris.
So how will it perform at the box office? That’s a tricky one and some simply for practical reasons. Spencer is hitting screens this Friday, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. When that’s available (hopefully Thursday), don’t be surprised if my current estimate is altered.
Practicalities aside, Oscar bait entries such as this often play out over the course of the season. In other words, don’t expect hefty grosses right away. That said, the buzz already being generated with Stewart as the Best Actress frontrunner and the fascination with the life and death of Diana should contribute to a decent per theater average. We just don’t know how many venues that is at the moment.
For those reasons, I’ll peg this in the $4-6 million range for its start (this is assuming a 1500 screen count which is a number I’ve heard rumored). That should nab it anywhere from the 3-6 position on the chart. Checking back on Thursday is probably wise.
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