Nearly three years ago, British horror pic The Woman in Black starring Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe, performed admirably at the U.S. box office with a $54 million gross (and a much better than expected $20M opening weekend).
And now the sequel arriving January 2 that marks the first major wide release of 2015. Radcliffe does not make a return trip and the cast features no well-known actors. Angel of Death will need to capitalize on audience affection for the original. The problem: there likely isn’t much of it. While the original made more than anticipated, it’s hardly considered a genre classic (though it is worth a look). This could follow a similar pattern to the first picture of 2014: Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which debuted to a less than estimated $18 million. Black, unfortunately, doesn’t even have the following of that franchise.
I believe this should open over double digits, but not by a whole lot.
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death opening weekend prediction: $11.1 million
On this Christmas morning, it turns out my present to you on the blog is something I didn’t get to think I’d write this week: a box office prediction for The Interview.
At this point, everyone movie blogger and critic has written about the debacle that involved hacking and North Korea and Sony Pictures and the controversial decision to not release the Seth Rogen/James Franco comedy in theaters. I wrote my own post when it looked like the picture may not see the light of day and if you missed it, you can find it here:
And now – Sony has reversed course, to an extent. The Interview, in which Rogen and Franco play entertainment journalists sent on a mission to take out North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, will premiere today in 331 independently owned theaters across the nation. The big movie chains are still not screening it. It is also debuting on numerous digital formats, including YouTube, Google Play, and Xbox which may divert some curious eyes from the theaters and to their laptops.
So what does that mean as far as its box office prospects? Well, that’s a tricky proposition but I’ll try my best. First, 331 screens isn’t many considering the average wannabe blockbuster comes to at least 2000 and often 3000 plus venues. In other words, think low. On the other hand, its per screen average should outdo the other holiday newbies that are rolling out.
With all the hype surrounding the movie (even with its less than stellar reviews – 5o% on Rotten Tomatoes), it should manage to bring out viewers who may not have even intended on watching it right away in the first place. Whether they do so at a theater they might not be used to going to or at home is a mystery that won’t be resolved until the numbers are released early next week. I’ll predict its limited release yields an average of over $10,000 per screen for an impressive haul.
The Interview opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $4.4 million (Thursday to Sunday)
After several weeks in limited release where it’s done quite well, The Imitation Game rolls out nationally tomorrow on Christmas Day. Premiering on approximately 747 screens, Game has been the beneficiary of much awards buzz – both for the Picture and its actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley.
The picture tells the story of Alan Turing, known for being the man to break Nazi codes during WWII. Game is thought to be in the running for what actually could win Best Picture, as is Cumberbatch. Reviews have been highly positive and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes.
It’s rolling out on less than 1000 screens which will certainly effect its performance, but I’ll predict it does quite nicely considering the number of theaters.
The Imitation Game opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Three new releases (not the originally planned four) roll out Christmas Day to compete with holdovers The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie. They are Disney’s musical fantasy Into the Woods, Angelina Jolie’s adaptation of the bestseller Unbroken, and Mark Wahlberg’s crime drama The Gambler. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the new entries here:
Of course, there was a fourth movie planned for release called The Interview. If you’re not familiar with happened there, you can turn on cable news or open your Twitter or Facebook feed.
I expect Into the Woods and Unbroken to post similar results for second and third place finishes behind current champ The Hobbit. It is worth noting that some prognosticators have Woods outdoing my estimate and it’s certainly possible.
During the Christmas holiday weekend, it’s not uncommon for some films to gain audience from the previous weekend and I’m predicting modest gains for family fare Museum and Annie.
Wahlberg’s Gambler is likely to settle for a sixth place debut. And with that, my predictions for the Christmas weekend’s top 6:
1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $42.4 million (representing a drop of 23%)
2. Into the Woods
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
3. Unbroken
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing an increase of 10%)
5. Annie
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing an increase of 7%)
Box Office Results (December 19-21)
Peter Jackson’s third and final Hobbit pic dominated the box office while not quite reaching the numbers I predicted. Its Wednesday release was a bit more front loaded than I anticipated. It took in $54.7 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend – under my $67.1M estimate. However, its five day take of $89.1 million was on track with my $93.6M forecast. This is a solid start for the end of the franchise and the fact that its second weekend falls on Christmas will help it.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb showed that the franchise is seriously running out of steam as it grossed just $17.1 million out of the gate, under my $25.4M estimate. Perhaps the five year wait from the second and third entries was too long as its fans have simply grown up.
The critically reviled Annie had a ho-hum debut with $15.8 million, just under my $17.6M prediction. It should gain some audience for Christmas, but this has to be below what the beleaguered Sony expected.
Exodus: Gods and Kings, as anticipated, fell hard in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, a bit under my $9.7M prognosis. The Ridley Scott epic, which was met with critical scorn, has earned an unimpressive $38M so far.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 rounded out the top five with $7.8 million (on pace with my $8M prediction). Its earned $289M at press time.
Finally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild debuted in sixth place with $4.1 million, not matching my $5.8M estimate. Its Oscar buzz (for Reese) could mean slow drop-offs in subsequent weekends.
And that’s all for now, folks! Have a very Merry Christmas!
Paramount Pictures goes for a little Christmas counter programming with the crime drama The Gambler, a remake of a 1974 James Caan flick. Rupert Wyatt (who did Rise of the Planet of the Apes) directs with Mark Wahlberg headlining. John Goodman, Jessica Lange, and Brie Larson costar. Reviews have been mostly positive with a current ranking of 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The majority of holiday pictures out there are not catering directly to an adult audience (Unbroken is a notable exception) and it could allow The Gambler to post a decent debut. Wahlberg is hit or miss at the box office, however and I’m not sure the marketing campaign has been effective enough to bring older moviegoers out in droves.
It may be a wager that doesn’t quite work for the studio. I believe The Gambler could get somewhat lost in the shuffle among the higher profile releases. It could struggle to reach $15 million over the four day extended holiday frame and I’ll estimate that it will not.
The Gambler opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)
At one time, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken was looked at as a potential juggernaut for Oscar season. Based on the 2010 Laura Hillenbrand bestseller focused on the life of Olympic medalist Louis Zamperini during World War II, the picture seemed tailor made for awards attention. Reviews have changed that dynamic drastically. It sits at only 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and has been subject to numerous negative reviews.
Unbroken still has a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination, though a win is out of the question. This will likely alter its box office take when it opens Christmas Day. Starring Jack O’Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, and Miyavi, the film should still be poised for relatively respectable results out of the gate.
The source material is well-known and it could fit the bill for adult moviegoers looking for something this holiday weekend (Into the Woods should do that too). Its performance should actually be quite similar to Woods premiere out of the gate.
Unbroken opening weekend prediction:
$20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Walt Disney’s Christmas gift to moviegoers is Into the Woods, the adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Broadway smash musical fantasy. From Oscar winning Chicago director Rob Marshall, Woods features an all-star cast that includes Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt, Chris Pine, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden.
Woods has been well publicized and should be primed to connect with audiences over the holiday break. Reviews have been mostly strong and it sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar buzz, particularly for Streep in the Supporting Actress race. It’s debuting on approximately 2200 screens which isn’t near the 3000 plus that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken is scheduled for, so that could slightly hinder its potential out of the gate.
Nevertheless with its strong brand name, Disney marketing, and recognizable stars, Woods should get off to a solid start with Christmas ticket buyers.
Into the Woods box office prediction: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
It’s a busy pre-Christmas box office weekend as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie all make their debuts. Additionally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild expands its theater count to approximately 850 screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each at the following links:
As you can see, The Hobbit should easily rule the weekend, however its Wednesday unveiling (unlike its two predecessors) should give it the lowest three day start of the franchise.
I expect Night at the Museum to open lower than its two predecessors, while Annie should see a lackluster beginning. Opening on less than a third of its competitors, Wild should manage a respectable sixth place debut.
As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Exodus: Gods and Kings underwhelmed out of the gate and its drubbing from critics and moviegoers (a troubling B- Cinemascore) means it should suffer a hefty fall. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 should round out the top five.
With that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
3. Annie
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
4. Exodus: Gods and Kings
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)
5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. Wild
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (December 12-14)
Its #1 opening was never really in question, but as mentioned above, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings disappointed with a middling $24.1 million premiere. This is much less than my projected $35.5M. Clearly the negative buzz hindered it and a steep fall (especially with Hobbit competition) seems inevitable.
The Hunger Games three-quel slipped to second with $12.6 million, a bit higher than my $11.4M prediction. It stands at $276M in four weeks and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it will be the lowest domestic earner of the franchise to date.
Penguins of Madagascar continued its unimpressive run with $7.2 million, in line with my $6.9M estimate. Its total is at $58M.
The acclaimed Chris Rock comedy Top Five debuted fourth with $6.8 million, well under my generous $11.6M prediction. While I certainly gave it too much credit, this is a fairly solid haul for a picture than opened on less than 1000 screens.
Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 was fifth with $6 million (I predicted $5.4M). It’s grossed $185M to date.
And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…
It’s not just hobbits, capuchin monkeys, and Annie remakes opening this weekend as Jean-Marc Vallee’s critically approved Wild debuts in semi-wide format on Friday. Premiering on approximately 850 screens (less than a third of the other big three releases), Wild has Oscar buzz and an Oscar winning star in the mix.
Reese Witherspoon stars in the true life tale of a woman who hikes the Pacific Coast Trail in search of life answers. Witherspoon is likely a shoo-in for a Best Actress nomination, though a win could be tough to come by against formidable competition including Julianne Moore (Still Alice) and Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Laura Dern is also being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actress nominee. Director Vallee knows a thing or two about directing his performers to Academy Award glory. Last year, he made Dallas Buyers Club, which earned both Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto wins.
The film is receiving positive reviews and it stands at an impressive 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Obviously its limited rollout will hinder its potential this weekend, but I believe its per-screen average will be enough to earn it a #6 debut.
Wild opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies, click here:
There’s a whole lot of talent involved with the Annie remake opening this Friday. Will Smith and Jay-Z are among the producers with Easy A and Friends with Benefits director Will Gluck behind the camera. Quevenzhane Wallis (who won critical acclaim for Beasts of the Southern Wild) plays the title role with Jamie Foxx, Cameron Diaz, Rose Byrne, and Bobby Cannavale rounding out the cast.
There’s a real question as to whether those big names will translate to big holiday box office though. Based loosely on the Broadway play and 1982 picture, the film trades its Depression era setting for modern day NYC. So far, reviews have been far from kind. There’s also the matter of serious family competition in the form of Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.
Sony Pictures is hoping for a healthy debut to divert attention away from its considerable hacking scandal. It could be wishful thinking. I believe Annie won’t even reach $20 million out of the gate for a lackluster start.
Annie opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
