Oscar winner Helen Mirren stars in the comedy/drama The Hundred-Foot Journey from Lasse Hallstrom, director of The Cider House Rules. Focusing on an Indian family who relocate to France to open a restaurant only to be met with opposition from Mirren’s nearby restaurateur, it’s based on a 2010 novel and its TV ads have promoted its producers as much as the award winning star.
That’s because the producers include Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey and ads have featured both extolling the film’s virtues. Journey is certainly attempting to appeal to adults tired of blockbusters and fans of the Oprah brand, which certainly isn’t insignificant. Strong reviews would be needed to propel this to hit status and, so far, they seem to be mixed. Opening on approximately 2000 screens – I’ll predict it will find slight counterprogramming success which should allow an opening gross just above double digits.
The Hundred-Foot Journey opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
This Friday – yet another “found footage” action flick comes our way with Into the Storm, concentrating on a devastating tornado. The Warner Bros. release faces serious action competition with Guardians of the Galaxy, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, and even Lucy‘s third weekend. There are no stars headlining the project, though there are some recognizable faces including The Hobbit‘s Richard Armitage, “Walking Dead” actress Sarah Wayne Callies, and “Veep” costar Matt Walsh.
It’s hard to see how Into the Storm breaks through to audiences in a big way. The trailers haven’t been real successful in making this look like any other than a low-rent Twister knockoff. Made for a relatively modest $50 million, Storm may even struggle to recoup its budget stateside. With serious competition and little driving moviegoers to see it unless you’re a major bad weather fan, I’ll predict Storm opens south of $15 million.
Into the Storm opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy should easily rule the first weekend of the August box office while the James Brown biopic Get On Up could come in for a second place finish. You can find my individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Current #1 and #2 Lucy and Hercules both got off to healthy debuts this past weekend and both are likely to suffer hefty declines in their sophomore frames. In its fourth weekend, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the upcoming weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $74.6 million
2. Get On Up
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
3. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 62%)
4. Hercules
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 57%)
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (July 25-27)
Luc Besson’s Lucy with Scarlett Johannson easily took the #1 spot with a terrific $43.8 million – well above my $28.1M prediction. While its opening is undeniably fantastic, it received only a C+ Cinemascore rating meaning audiences weren’t pleased with the results.
Hercules with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson had a solid #2 premiere with $29.8 million, above my $21.4M estimate. Better than expected reviews could have contributed to its decent performance.
Falling to third after two weeks on top, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes made $16.7 million, a bit under my $19.4M projection. The ape sequel has earned $172 million so far and should approach a final gross of $215M.
The Purge: Anarchy was expected to suffer a precipitous drop and it did with $10.4 million in weekend #2, right on par with my $10.3M prediction.
Rounding out the top five was Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue with $9.5 million in its sophomore frame, under my $11.2M projection. The animated sequel has made a middling $35 million.
Finally, the Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton rom com And So It Goes sputtered with only $4.6 million for an eighth place debut – less than half of my generous $9.3M estimate.
The Godfather of Soul gets his own biopic when Get On Up debuts in theaters this Friday. Chadwick Boseman, who played Jackie Robinson in the hit 42, portrays James Brown with The Help director Tate Taylor behind the camera. Costars include Dan Aykroyd, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Craig Robinson, and Jill Scott.
Get On Up could be in a good position for a solid debut. Taylor’s The Help opened in August three summers ago to $26 million. That would certainly be a good number for this. 42 premiered to $27 million in 2013.
The pic could be successful in bringing in African-American audiences and adult moviegoers burnt out on sci-fi blockbusters. I’ll predict Get On Up manages a debut in the mid 20s.
Get On Up opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million
For my Guardians of the Galaxy prediction, click here:
Marvel Studios is back in action this Friday with Guardians of the Galaxy, their $170 million dollar project that is certainly more of a gamble than their previous megahits. It’s based on a comic book not nearly as well-known as Iron Man, Captain America, or Thor – in other words, the Avengers cast.
Still positive signals are sprouting up. The James Gunn directed saga boasts a 100% current score on Rotten Tomatoes and TV spots are omnipresent. The cast features Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel, and Bradley Cooper as the voice of Rocket, a genetically engineered raccoon.
While Guardians is not likely to match the $95M debut that the latest Disney/Marvel pic, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, opened at – a healthy debut is expected. I foresee a premiere in the mid seventies and if word of mouth is solid (and it should be), it could have a nice run at the #1 spot.
Guardians of the Galaxy opening weekend prediction: $74.6 million
Three new titles open Friday to challenge current two week champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes for box office dominance. They are the Scarlett Johannson action pic Lucy, The Rock led Hercules, and the Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton rom com And So It Goes. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Lucy and Hercules may fight it out for the #1 position. If both underwhelm, there is an outside chance for Dawn to three-peat. As for other holdovers, current #2 The Purge: Anarchy is likely to suffer the typically big decline that horror titles do, though I’m not predicting it’ll drop as precipitously as the original fell (75%) last summer. The animated Planes: Fire & Rescue should have the smallest decline of all titles in its sophomore weekend while And So It Goes may have to settle for a sixth place debut.
And with that – my predictions for this coming weekend’s top 6:
1. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
2. Hercules
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. Planes: Fire & Rescue
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Purge: Anarchy
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. And So It Goes
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained #1 for the second week in a row with $36.2 million, just above my $34.6M projection. The well-reviewed sequel has earned $139 million in ten days and a gross north of $200 million seems in the cards.
I far underestimated The Purge: Anarchy, which debuted strongly at second with $29.8 million – way beyond my $15.5M prediction. I incorrectly surmised that audience’s dislike of the original would hurt this. It didn’t. Expect a part 3 next year.
Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue opened third with a decent $17.5 million, under my generous $25.4M estimate. It couldn’t match the $22 million that its predecessor accomplished last summer, but it should hold well in future weekends.
The bomb of the weekend was undoubtedly the Cameron Diaz comedy Sex Tape, which stumbled out of the gate with $14.6 million – about half of my $29.1M projection. Oops. There’s no doubt that highly negative reviews hurt this and this will go down as one of the season’s biggest flops.
In fifth was holdover Transformers: Age of Extinction with $9.8 million in its fourth weekend, above my $7.7M estimate. It’s taken in $227 million so far and should get to $250 million, which will most likely allow it to be summer’s highest domestic grosser.
Director Rob Reiner attempts a summer movie season counterprogramming move with And So It Goes, opening Friday. The romantic comedy stars Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton and the pic will try to bring in an adult audience burnt out on would-be blockbusters populating the marketplace.
I’m not so sure it’ll succeed. Early reviews have been mixed and the advertising campaign has been low-key. And So It Goes would love to bring in the numbers of Hope Springs with Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones, which opened two summers ago to a $14 million opening weekend gross. I don’t believe this will reach those heights. Premiering on a relatively low 1800 screens, I’m forecasting that this won’t quite reach double digits and should be available for home viewing in the near future.
And So It Goes opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million
This Friday, audiences are treated to their second Hercules themed film of 2014. This would considered the higher profile one as The Legend of Hercules bombed in January with an abysmal $18 million domestic gross. Expectations are understandably bigger for this one – as it stars Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and is directed by Brett Ratner. It’s likely to gross more in its first weekend than Legend did in its whole domestic run.
Having said that, I’m anticipating a fairly muted opening for Hercules. The trailers and TV sports aren’t bad, but they’re rather unimpressive. There’s also Lucy, the Scarlett Johannson action thriller that seems to have more buzz around it and could be more successful in attracting a female audience. As I see it, Hercules will need to do solid business internationally to justify its reported $110 million budget because I don’t see it reaching very close to that stateside.
Hercules opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
This Friday, Scarlett Johannson enters Angelina Jolie territory as she headlines the action thriller Lucy, from director Luc Besson. Costarring the Narrator in Chief Morgan Freeman, Universal Studios has shown confidence in the project by moving it from its original August time slot to late July. The marketing campaign has been strong and the trailers and TV spots are effective.
The big question is whether Lucy will be negatively affected by its competition, Hercules featuring The Rock. Both pictures could cause the other to lose out on their full box office potential. What Lucy has that Hercules may not is the chance to bring more females into the fold. Audiences are used to seeing Johannson in action mode following her appearances in Iron Man 2, The Avengers, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which is still 2014’s highest grosser.
Add that up and Lucy has a real chance to be a sleeper summer hit and nab the #1 spot over its competitors.
We’ve got three new titles populating theaters this coming Friday: the Cameron Diaz/Jason Segel comedy Sex Tape, the horror sequel The Purge: Anarchy and Disney’s animated sequel Planes: Fire & Rescue. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
These newbies could create a legitimate three-way race for the #1 spot. The main question is whether Sex Tape or Planes could exceed my expectations and knock current champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from its perch? It’s certainly possible. Some could make the argument that the Purge sequel could over perform and compete, but I just don’t see that happening.
Ultimately I’m predicting the Apes will keep their considerable monkey business at #1 with the new entries coming in second through fourth. The well-reviewed Apes flick is likely to lose 45-55% of its audience in its sophomore frame. Transformers: Age of Extinction should fall to fifth.
And with that, my top five predictions for the upcoming weekend:
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $34.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $29.1 million
3. Planes: Fire & Rescue
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
4. The Purge: Anarchy
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (July 11-13)
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes dominated the weekend with a very solid $72.6 million haul – though it did fall a little short of my $77.2M projection. This is a great start for it and pretty much guarantees more franchise entrees in the near future.
Falling to second in weekend #3 was Transformers: Age of Extinction with $16.3 million, right in range with my $16.8M prediction. The fourth film in the Michael Bay series has earned $208 million so far. It will likely top out around $250 million and will easily be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise.
Melissa McCarthy’s critically panned Tammy held up a bit better than I figured, placing third with $12.5 million – above my $10.7M estimate. The comedy has earned $56 million in two weeks.
In fourth was 22 Jump Street with $6.5 million, just outshining my $5.6M prediction. The sequel has earned $171 million. In fifth was How to Train Your Dragon 2 with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! The animated sequel has earned a less than expected $152 million. Finally, Earth to Echo was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million, in line with my $5.2M projection. Its taken in $24 million in two weeks.
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