Will Smith stars as a con artist alongside Wolf of Wall Street’s Margot Robbie in Focus, out Friday. The romantic comedic drama’s earning potential will rest solely on the Fresh Prince’s shoulders and it’s a legit question as to how strong that drawing power still is.
Of course from the mid 90s and the decade following, it was a different story with Smith. Films like Independence Day, Men in Black, Enemy of the State, I, Robot and Hitch were mega blockbusters. It has been two years since Big Willie Style headlined a film and it wasn’t a success story. M. Night Shyamalan’s sci fi dud After Earth took in just $60 million in the summer of 2013.
The expectations for Focus aren’t nearly as high as your typical fare starring Smith. In fact, I believe it will take in less with its opening than the aforementioned Earth. The budget is a surprisingly high $100 million, which means Warner Bros. is unlikely to see a return on their investment. Anything above $25 million would be decent, but I don’t see it reaching that.
Focus opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million
For my prediction on The Lazarus Effect, click here:
Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.
Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.
And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)
2. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. McFarland, USA
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
7. The DUFF
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (February 13-15)
Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.
Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.
Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.
American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.
No it’s not a biopic of the 90s MTV VJ who costarred in Dumb and Dumber, but rather a PG-13 comedy where the “DUFF” stands for Designated Ugly Fat Friend. The teen pic will try to bring in some younger viewers while Hot Tub Time Machine 2 will compete for a slightly older R rated audience as they open on the same day.
Recognizable actors such as Allison Janney and Ken Jeong are in the cast mixed in with some unknowns. I actually foresee the two comedies each debuting to similarly tepid results. The DUFF looks like a generic and non-descript feature and I feel audiences will respond accordingly. Like Hot Tub, I do not see this reaching double digits.
The DUFF opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
For my prediction on Hot Tub Time Machine 2, click here:
He’s already made three films about baseball plus football, golf, and bicycle racing pics. Apparently it’s time for cross country track on the silver screen for Kevin Costner as McFarland, USA debuts in theaters Friday.
The Disney produced drama tells the true story of a Latino high school track team with Costner as the coach. Maria Bello costars. It’s a bit of a period piece as it is set in the 1980s when Mr. Costner first started making these types of flicks. Of course, the 80s and 90s were when the star could help successfully open a movie and that time has passed.
I could definitely see this debuting right around with what another Disney sports pic did last summer, Millin Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm which earned a middling $10.5 million. This should hover right around the double digit mark. Not anything special at all, but also not so bad considering its meager reported $17 million budget.
McFarland, USA opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
For my Hot Tub Time Machine 2 prediction, click here:
Nearly five years after the original turned into a somewhat minor cult classic, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 hits theaters this Friday and will attempt to at least make what its predecessor accomplished in 2010.
The R rated sequel was supposed to come out this past Christmas, but the studio pushed it to a less competitive February spot. Machine 1 star John Cusack opted not to return for the follow-up, but Rob Corddry, Craig Robinson, Clark Duke and Chevy Chase are back to reprise their roles with Adam Scott thrown into the mix.
The original premiered to a decent $14 million with an eventual solid gross of $50 million stateside. I have serious doubts as to whether this sequel can match that. The first certainly has its fans (I count myself among them) yet there doesn’t seem to be a big clamor for a second helping. Even some admirers of the 2010 pic could opt to wait for VOD.
As I see it, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 may struggle to even reach double digits out of the gate and, ultimately, I don’t believe it will.
Hot Tub Time Machine 2 opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million
It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $63.1 million
2. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (February 6-8)
As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.
American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.
Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.
Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.
Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.
It certainly doesn’t have the name recognition of your Avengers or X-Men, but Kingsman: The Secret Service still may use its superhero related formula to bring in successful box office results. Based on a 2012 comic book, the 20th Century Fox production utilizes some familiar names and faces in its genre. Matthew Vaughn, director of X-Men: First Class, serves behind the camera with Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and Alfred the Butler (Michael Caine) in supporting roles. Oscar winner Colin Firth headlines.
The spy action comedy has been receiving mostly strong critical notices and it stands at 80% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Kingsman could serve as smart counter programming for the male audience as much of the female audience will be watching Christian Grey and whips and blindfolds. Trailers and TV spots have been prevalent and well produced.
I’ll estimate that Kingsman manages a sturdy debut of around $30 million. That’s less than half what I’m predicting Fifty Shades makes, but it’s still quite good for this picture.
Kingsman: The Secret Service opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million
For my Fifty Shades of Grey prediction, click here:
This President’s and Valentine’s Day weekend, Fifty Shades of Grey is expected to capture the full attention of many moviegoers, especially the female audience. Based on the E.L. James phenomenon of a bestseller, Sam Taylor-Johnson directs the film adaptation with relative unknown actors Dakota Johnson as Anastasia Steele and Jamie Dornan as Christian Grey. With its well known source material, this erotic drama should whip all competitors and clamp down on the #1 spot. The figure of over $50 million out of the gate are probably safe words for how this will perform.
Universal Pictures is shrewdly releasing the project on Valentine’s weekend and there are already two sequels reportedly in the works. While Shades is unlikely to approach the all time February opening of The Passion of the Christ at $83 million, it could flirt with the $69 million #2 of the month opening that was last year’s LEGO Movie. It might not quite get there, but it should surpass Hannibal’s $58 million debut to overtake the number three record domestic haul for February.
I’ll predict Fifty Shades of Grey gets off to a very healthy start with its legions of mostly female fans. It may not hold up too well in subsequent weekends, but with its smallish $40 million budget, it won’t matter much.
Fifty Shades of Grey opening weekend prediction: $63.1 million
For my Kingsman: The Secret Service prediction, click here:
The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.
And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:
1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Seventh Son
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)
Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.
With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.
Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.
The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.
Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.
The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.
New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The fantasy epic Seventh Son opens Friday and it may be in for some troubling results especially considering its reported $77 million budget. With a cast featuring Jeff Bridges, Julianne Moore, and Ben Barnes – Son has so far been met with mostly negative critical reaction.
It also doesn’t help that Jupiter Ascending is premiering on the same day and could easily siphon away much of Son’s target crowd. The marketing campaign has been relatively modest. Seventh Son might be lucky to match the last fantasy themed pic that featured Bridges, The Giver, which made $12 million out of the gate last summer.
My prediction reflects a feeling that this won’t even quite reach double digits for a very disappointing debut.
Seventh Son opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million
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