It happens sometimes and we have a late entry in my box office predictin’ business as the Christian themed drama War Room opens tomorrow on an estimated on 1100 screens. That’s enough exposure that the pic could sneak into the top five, considering this should be a lackluster weekend at the multiplex.
Director Alex Kendrick has seen modest box office successes before with his faith based works, particularly 2008’s Fireproof with Kirk Cameron. It opened with $6 million on its way to a $33 million domestic take. Kendrick’s last feature, 2011’s Courageous, opened with $3 million with an eventual $9 million gross. These are great numbers considering they cost very little to produce (War Room‘s budget is just a reported $3M).
I will be revising my top five predictions for the weekend as I believe Room will snag the #4 spot and outdo another newcomer, No Escape.
War Room opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
For my We Are Your Friends prediction, click here:
BLOGGER’S NOTE (Thursday, August 27) – I am revising my top five predictions and accounting for the Christian themed drama War Room (opening on approximately 1100 screens). I believe it will manage to snag the #4 spot.
The last weekend of August should bring forth some serious box office doldrums as it usually does this time of year. There are two new entries out: the Zac Efron DJ drama We Are Your Friends and Owen Wilson action thriller No Escape. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I frankly don’t expect much from either, but Friends stands the better chance of over performing and possibly even nabbing the #1 spot. I don’t think it’ll quite get there though and that means Straight Outta Compton should manage to stay #1 for the third weekend in a row. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop from 2nd to 3rd.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. We Are Your Friends
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
4. War Room
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. No Escape
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)
Box Office Results (August 21-23)
The N.W.A. biopic continued to rule the charts as Straight Outta Compton took in $26.3 million in its sophomore frame, just above my $24.6M estimate. The acclaimed pic has amassed an impressive $111 million in ten days.
Staying in the runner-up spot was Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation which added $11.4 million to its coffers, just ahead of my $10.4M projection. Its total stands at $157M.
Horror sequel Sinister 2 sputtered with just $10.5 million, well below my $16.2M prediction and well under the $18 million earned by the original for its start. Hitman: Agent 47 debuted in fourth with an unremarkable $8.3 million, though it did top my $6M estimate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. dropped to fifth in weekend #2 with $7.3 million, in line with my $7.1M prediction. Its sleepy two week total is at $26M. Finally, the Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra tanked in sixth place with just $5.4 million, falling below my $9.8M estimate.
Seeing that a number of Owen Wilson comedies have under performed recently, it’s tough to envision a scenario where his late August action thriller No Escape gains any traction with moviegoers when it opens on Wednesday. The pic casts Wilson as a businessman trapped with his family in Southeast Asia during a military coup. Lake Bell and Pierce Brosnan costar.
The trailers and TV spots do little to inspire much confidence. Frankly, No Escape looks like something that could have as easily gone the direct to VOD route. It’s probably no accident this is arriving the final week of summer, which is primarily a dumping ground for product the studios don’t have much faith in. I believe Escape will struggle to make double digits, even in its expanded five day roll out and it’ll probably be available on the aforementioned VOD quite soon.
No Escape opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my We Are Your Friends prediction, click here:
In his first major role since last summer’s hit Neighbors, Zac Efron is back in theaters with the musical drama We Are Your Friends next Friday. As you will recall, it was music that first made Efron a star with the High School Musical series. The pic finds its lead as a DJ struggling to enter the popular EDM scene. Emily Ratajkowski, Wes Bentley and Jon Bernthal costar.
For those thinking this is a return to Efron’s high school crooning days, the R rating would indicate otherwise. Friends stands no chance of reaching the heights of Neighbors, which rode a wave of positive buzz to blockbuster status. I believe this is more likely to perform similar to Efron’s pic before that one – That Awkward Moment, which earned $8.7 million for its start in spring 2014.
For Warner Bros, this is a rather low risk venture as it comes with a reported budget of only $10 million. I’ll predict it just manages to outdo that budget in weekend one.
We Are Your Friends opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million
As we enter the doldrums of late August at the box office, we have three new entries populating the multiplexes: horror sequel Sinister 2, Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra, and video game inspired Hitman: Agent 47. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect any of them to outdo the second weekend of current champ Straight Outta Compton, which made a boatload of cash this weekend (more on that below). Sinister 2 seems to be the only one with a shot, as horror films do often over perform. I expect both Ultra and Hitman to premiere under double digits.
Compton should actually drop precipitously in its sophomore frame considering many moviegoers likely wanted to rush out and see it. For comparison sake, Eminem’s 8 Mile dipped 62% in its second weekend and Compton could drop close to that (which is nothing against it considering it made way more out of the gate than anybody figured it would).
As for other holdovers, I look for Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation to eek out a third place showing over Ultra and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. taking the five spot in weekend #2 after its disappointing opening.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 59%)
2. Sinister 2
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. American Ultra
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Hitman: Agent 47
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (August 14-16)
As mentioned, the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton capitalized on its great reviews, music, and word of mouth and had a massive opening that exceeded all expectations. The film grossed an astonishing $60.2 million, blasting past my $39.3M estimate. With a reported budget of just $29 million, Compton represents another blockbuster for Universal Pictures in 2015.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation dropped to second in weekend #3 with $17.1 million, a bit above my $14.9M projection. The hit fifth entry in Tom Cruise’s franchise stands at $138M so far.
The news was not good for The Man from U.N.C.L.E., which stalled with just a $13.4 million opening, under my $18.6M prediction. Audience attention was clearly elsewhere over the weekend and this planned franchise will likely end here.
Speaking of possibly dead franchises, the news kept getting worse for last weekend’s bomb Fantastic Four. It dropped a dramatic 68% in weekend #2 with just $8.1 million, under my predicted $11.1M. The Fox property has taken in an embarrassing $42M in ten days.
Finally, the Jason Bateman/Joel Edgerton suspense pic The Gift took in $6.5 million in its second weekend, right in line with my $6.3M estimate. The critically applauded film has made a respectable $23M.
Based on a video game series, the action spectacle Hitman: Agent 47 hits theaters next Friday and it may be a prime example of a late August summer release that gets lost in the shuffle. The pic was originally meant to be a starring vehicle for Paul Walker before his death in 2013.
Stepping into the lead role is Rupert Friend, one of the stars of Showtime’s “Homeland”. The supporting cast includes Hannah Ware, Zachary Quinto, and Ciaran Hinds. While 20th Century Fox has been promoting Hitman with plenty of TV spots, I’m just not sure how this breaks through with other action fare like Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. out there.
As I see it, Hitman: Agent 47 would be very lucky to top double digits out of the gate and I don’t really think it gets too close to that.
Hitman: Agent 47 opening weekend prediction: $6 million
Sinister 2 opens next Friday and hopes to replicate the success of its 2012 predecessor that became a sleeper hit. This time around, expectations may be a little higher but I’m not convinced it’ll even reach the domestic take of its predecessor.
The original Sinister capitalized on solid reviews and opened to a robust $18 million in October 2012 on its way to a $48 million domestic haul. The sequel only finds one returning cast member with James Ransone as a cop. Ethan Hawke, the film’s original star, is nowhere to be found which makes sense if you’ve seen the picture.
While horror enthusiasts mostly regarded Sinister with approval, I’m not so sure fans will rush out to see its sequel. I believe Sinister 2 will have a tough time even matching the $18M mark and an opening in the mid teens seems more likely.
Sinister 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
A lot has happened in the film careers of Jesse Eisenberg and Kristen Stewart since they starred in 2009’s Adventureland. Eisenberg earned an Oscar nod for The Social Network, starred in 2013’s summer sleeper hit Now You See Me, and got himself cast as Lex Luthor in next year’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Stewart furthered her star status with more Twilight pics and Snow White and the Huntsman. Now the pair reunite for American Ultra, an action comedy out next Friday. I am highly skeptical this movie will be among their big earners.
Ultra has a supporting cast that includes Topher Grace, Connie Britton, Walton Goggins, Bill Pullman, and Tony Hale. The pic seems to be flying a bit under the radar. Solid reviews could assist yet I wonder whether this manages to even post double digits in its opening. Ultra should have no trouble topping the $5.7 million debut of Adventureland (at least I think), but I will project it falls just under $10 million and likely fades fast.
American Ultra opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.
When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million
2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
5. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.
Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.
Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.
Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.
Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).
Telling the story of one of hip hop music’s most iconic groups, Straight Outta Compton hits theaters next Friday and could be poised for a stealthy debut. Centering on the story of N.W.A. and its members Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy E, MC Ren and DJ Yella, Compton is directed by F. Gary Gray, who made music videos for Dre and Cube back in the day prior to becoming an accomplished maker of Friday and The Italian Job, among others. A cast of relative unknowns formulate the cast with the exception of Paul Giamatti as band manager Jerry Heller. Cube’s son O’Shea Jackson Jr. plays his pop.
Fans of the hip hop genre should flock to this. Shot on a meager $25 million budget, it stands to top that (probably easily) in its first weekend. Dre and Cube served as executive producers and Dre has a highly awaited album coming out tomorrow that’s inspired by the film. Reviews have been strong with a current rating of 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While Compton is unlikely to reach the heights of Eminem’s 8 Mile ($51 million debut) in 2002 when that artist was at the top of his drawing power, I think believe Compton should rule its weekend. I believe it could approach and maybe surpass $40 million for its premiere, I’ll go just a tad under.
Straight Outta Compton opening weekend prediction: $39.3 million
For my The Man from U.N.C.L.E. prediction, click here:
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