A summer action pic based on a popular 1960s spy TV show? No, not Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, but The Man from U.N.C.L.E. which opens next Friday. Don’t expect this to reach close to Rogue numbers. Sherlock Holmes director Guy Ritchie is behind the camera with Man of Steel Henry Cavill and Lone Ranger Armie Hammer in the leads. Ex Machina’s Alicia Vikander and Hugh Grant are among the supporting players.
While the marketing campaign has been fairly robust, it’s hard to see U.N.C.L.E. breaking through in any significant way. Straight Outta Compton, debuting the same day, appears poised for a splashy start while Fantastic Four will be entering weekend #2 with Rogue Nation likely doing pretty strong biz in its third frame. None of the stars here are capable of opening a picture and familiarity with the TV show from 50 years is limited.
Add that up and I’ll predict this $75 million budgeted effort doesn’t reach $20 million out of the gate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Straight Outta Compton prediction, click here:
August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.
After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $47.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. Ricki and the Flash
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.
Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.
Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.
Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?
While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.
Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
Oscar winning director Jonathan Demme and Oscar winning screenwriter Diablo Cody bring us the comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, out Friday. The film stars frequent Oscar winner Meryl Streep in the role of a rock star who abandoned her family for stardom with the actress’s real life daughter Mamie Gummer portraying her movie daughter. Kevin Kline and musician Rick Springfield are among the supporting players.
TriStar Pictures is hoping that Ricki’s numbers will be assisted by a sizable female and adult audience. It could work to an extent, but despite the pedigree involved, the pic isn’t really generating awards buzz. It’s hard to see the ceiling for this being greater than high teens though I’m skeptical it’ll reach that gross out of the gate. I believe a debut in the lower single digits is the more likely scenario.
Ricki and the Flash opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
Joel Edgerton directs, writes, and costars in the psychological thriller The Gift, out Friday and I think it stands a fair shot at becoming a summer sleeper hit. The pic, which also features Jason Bateman and Rebecca Hall, has featured some rather effective trailers and TV spots and it could succeed at bringing in a more adult crowd than your typical product you see in the August frame.
So far reviews have been quite strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. None of the key players are box office draws and Bateman is much better known for comedic roles, but the robust marketing campaign could succeed in bringing in a larger audience than anticipated.
I’ll predict The Gift yields positive returns for its studio, STX Entertainment and manages a debut in the mid to high teens.
The Gift opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million
Chronicle director Josh Trank spearheads 20th Century Fox’s reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, some eight years after the last entry in the series. The big question is: how much of a clamoring is there for these heroes return to the silver screen?
Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara and Jamie Bell headline the cast in this reported $122 million tentpole that marks the third and final superhero flick of the summer, after Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron and Ant-Man. Fantastic Four has no hope of reaching Ultron numbers and may be lucky to even be in Ant-Man’s territory.
2005’s original Fantastic Four debuted to $56 million on its way to a $154 million domestic gross while its 2007 sequel Rise of the Silver Surfer opened slightly higher with $58 million. The follow-up did end up earning less overall with $134 million. Both premieres are right in line with Ant-Man’s $57 million first take some three weeks ago.
While any major league comic book film should have no problem making over $40 million out of the gate, this one’s ceiling may not be significantly higher. I’m not convinced audiences are overly eager for this series to come back and early word of mouth has been mixed, at best. I don’t see this making what Ant-Man or the first two Four pics made and a debut in the high 40s seems likely.
Fantastic Four opening weekend prediction: $47.7 million
As July comes to a close, two new entries look to nab the top spots at the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and comedy reboot Vacation debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Tom Cruise’s fifth go round as Ethan Hunt should have no problem at all taking the #1 spot while I look for Vacation to land in the runner-up spot.
As for holdovers, I look for Minions to hold up better than current champ Ant-Man, allowing them to place third and fourth. Adam Sandler’s Pixels had a very poor premiere (more on that below) and I look for it to experience the heftiest decline, putting it in a close race for fifth with Trainwreck and Southpaw.
And with that, we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:
1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $52.3 million
2. Vacation
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Minions
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. Pixels
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)
6. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)
7. Southpaw
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
Marvel’s Ant-Man surprisingly held onto the #1 slot in its second weekend with $24.9 million, in line with my $25.6M projection. It has grossed a solid $106M in its first ten days of release.
The “surprise” is that Pixels was expected to top the charts, yet it tanked with a $24 million opening – less than half of my extremely generous $49M prediction. The critically panned video game pic represents another poor performance from Adam Sandler, whose box office star has been waning in recent years.
Minions was third with $22.9 million, on target with my $23.4M estimate and the animated hit has brought in $262M.
Trainwreck held up admirably for fourth in weekend #2 with $17.2 million (a bit under my $18.7M prediction) for a total of $61 million. The Judd Apatow comedy should top $100M when all is said and done.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s boxing drama Southpaw exceeded most expectations with a sturdy $16.7 million, ahead of my $12.9M projection.
Finally, teen romance Paper Towns (based on a John Green bestseller) had a less than expected roll out with just $12.6 million, considerably below my $26.8M estimate. While Towns has a tiny budget and will easily profit, this is disappointing considering The Fault in Our Stars (also based on a Green novel) made $48M out of the gate last summer.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
A new generation of Griswolds comes to the big screen as Vacation hits theaters this Wednesday. It’s been 32 years since Clark, Ellen, and the kids starred in the now classic original and 18 years since the last installment, the poorly received Vegas Vacation.
Our reboot finds Ed Helms as the grown up Rusty Griswold with Christina Applegate as his wife. Leslie Mann costars as sister Audrey with Chris Hemsworth and Charlie Day among the supporting cast. And as you’ve likely seen from the trailers and TV spots, Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo do return once again.
The name brand and nostalgia factor alone should be enough to get this Vacation off to a pretty healthy start. There is some comedy competition in the form of Trainwreck‘s third weekend, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor. With its five-day roll out, the pic looks poised for a likely second place showing behind the weekend’s other newcomer, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. I’ll say it manages to reach mid 20s over the five day frame.
Vacation opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation prediction, click here:
Tom Cruise is back for his fifth go round as IMF agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, opening Friday, July 31st. The now nineteen year old franchise should give the series another solid hit, following the goodwill left over from 2011’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing fourth entry, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
Besides Cruise, Rogue features returnees Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg and Ving Rhames, in addition to new cast members Rebecca Ferguson and Alec Baldwin. Let’s take a trip down memory lane for openings of past flicks:
Mission: Impossible – $45.4 million debut with eventual $180.9M domestic gross in 1996
Mission: Impossible II – $70.8 million debut over four day Memorial Day weekend in 2000 with $91.8 million premiere since it opened on a Wednesday with eventual $215.4M domestic gross
Mission: Impossible III – $47.7 million debut with eventual $134M domestic gross in 2006
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol – $44.1 million debut over four day Christmas weekend in 2011 with eventual $209.3M domestic gross
As you can see, Protocol technically had the lowest opening of the franchise, but held strong in subsequent post holiday weekends to generate the second largest haul of the series. That bodes pretty well for audience anticipation for Rogue, yet it doesn’t have the benefit of a late year release when titles tend to experience smaller drop offs from weekend to weekend.
Rogue Nation stands little chance of reaching the opening heights achieved by part two, but I do believe it will manage the second highest roll out. I will predict a debut in the low to mid 50s range.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation opening weekend prediction: $52.3 million
Three new titles populate the multiplex this weekend as the video game inspired family comedy Pixels, adaptation of John Green bestseller Paper Towns, and Jake Gyllenhaal boxing drama Southpaw all debut. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
I expect Pixels to easily nab the #1 spot, though it is worth noting that my prediction is higher than some other prognosticators are putting it at. And to be fair, I overestimated Ant-Man this past weekend (more on that below). Still, it’s tough to imagine it not debuting in first place.
It could be a very tight race between Paper Towns, Ant-Man, and Minions for the runner-up position. I am estimating Towns manages to get there with Ant-Man and Minions losing over half their previous frame audiences in their respective second and third weekends.
Amy Schumer’s comedy Trainwreck should suffer the smallest decline of holdovers after its robust roll out. That would leave Southpaw outside of the top five with a sixth place showing and it’ll certainly need to greatly exceed expectations to avoid that fate.
And with that, it’s a top 6 predictions this weekend:
1. Pixels
Predicted Gross: $49 million
2. Paper Towns
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
3. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. Minions
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. Southpaw
Predicted Gross: $12.9 milion
Box Office Results (July 17-19)
Disney/Marvel once again saw its product debut at #1, but Ant-Man managed just the 11th highest opening in their 12 film Marvel Cinematic Universe (only 2008’s The Incredible Hulk started lower). The Paul Rudd pic grossed $57.2 million, well under my $73.3M estimate. Still, expectations were not quite as sky high for this entry and it represents a decent gross, albeit on the lower end of the scale.
Minions dropped to second with $49.2 million, under my $56.9M prediction. The Despicable Me spin-off has amassed $215 million in ten days.
Amy Schumer became a movie star over the weekend as her critically acclaimed Trainwreck posted a fantastic $30 million opening, just ahead of my $27.8M projection. As mentioned, I anticipate solid word of mouth to keep this chugging along over the next couple of weekends.
Pixar’s Inside Out was fourth with $11.5 million (I said $10.5M) for a total of $306 million while Jurassic World was fifth with $11.4 million (I said $11.1M) for an amazing $611 million current gross.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
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