Box Office Predictions: August 26-28

***BLOGGER’S UPDATE (08/23/16): It was announced today by the Weinstein Company that they are significantly changing their release pattern for Hands of Stone. The film was originally scheduled to debut this Friday on approximately 2,000 screens. Now, it will premiere on only 800 screens with a wider roll-out on Wednesday (08/31). This forces a shift in my prediction for it. My $6.1 million estimate is now $3.9 million. That would leave it at #11 this weekend based on my projections.

****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below.

The 2016 summer movie season comes to a close this weekend and it does so in a manner in which most late Augusts do… with a whimper. There are three newbies debuting. None are expected to create major waves. They are: Jason Statham action sequel Mechanic: Resurrection, Sam Raimi produced horror pic Don’t Breathe, and Robert Duran boxing biopic Hands of Stone with Edgar Ramirez and Robert De Niro. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/dont-breathe-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/mechanic-resurrection-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/17/hands-of-stone-box-office-prediction/

I don’t have any of the newcomers making double digits out of the gate. I will note that my blog readers are strenuously disagreeing on that point with Don’t Breathe, it seems. A whopping 85% believe my prediction is Too Low with 11% saying Just About Right and just 4% saying Too High. Truth be told, horror movies are tough to predict (Lights Out opened considerably beyond my estimate just a month ago). My projection for Don’t Breathe takes into account the late August release and a similar comparison with You’re Next (another critically acclaimed genre title released in the same weekend three summers back). Still, it appears this might be the trendy pick to be #1 in the final summer frame.

As for Mechanic: Resurrection, it’s a pretty even split with 40% saying my forecast is Just About Right and 30% each believing it’s Too High and Too Low. With Hands of Stone, 44% each think I’m either Just About Right or Too Low with 12% saying Too High.

So what will be #1? It looks to me as if Suicide Squad has a real shot at a four-peat if none of the debuting pictures reach past $10M. When it comes to other holdovers in their second weekends, I expect Kubo and the Two Strings will have a smaller percentage drop-off than War Dogs while Sausage Party in weekend #3 may drop at about 50%. It should create an extremely close race between them.

As for Ben-Hur and its dismal weekend opening (more on that below), its drop may not be as massive as some may think (it did get an A- Cinemascore), but over 50% is quite probable. It may battle with Pete’s Dragon and Hands of Stone and Bad Moms for similar grosses.

Add all that activity up and I’ll predict a Top Ten for this final blowout (aka mild fade out) of summer ’16:

1. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

2. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Mechanic: Resurrection

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

4. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

6. War Dogs

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

7. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 42%)

8. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 32%)

9. Ben-Hur

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

10. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (August 19-21)

Suicide Squad remained atop the charts for the third weekend in a row, grossing $20.8 million (slightly ahead of my $19.8M estimate) for a total of $262M. As mentioned above, the DC Comics pic has a nice shot at a fourth weekend at #1 (unless I’m wrong about Don’t Breathe… which many believe I am).

Sausage Party held in second place in weekend 2 with $15.4 million (I predicted a bit higher with $16.7M) for a pleasing 10 day total of $65M. Whether or not it reaches $100M is still in question, but this is a fine performance considering its $30M budget.

The Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs had the highest debut of the newbies with a respectable third place showing. It grossed $14.6 million, a bit above my $13.4M projection. I expect it lose almost half its audience in its sophomore frame as audiences didn’t seem too impressed with a B Cinemascore grade.

Kubo and the Two Strings garnered strong reviews, but had the weakest opening yet in fourth place for animation studio Laika with $12.6 million (under my generous $17M forecast). It could be that family audiences have simply had their fair share of pics to enjoy this season.

Speaking of underwhelming family entertainment, Disney’s Pete’s Dragon continued its unimpressive run with $11.3 million for fifth place (I predicted $12.3M). The total stands at $42M.

Now… to Ben-Hur. And, boy, is this an enormous flop for Paramount. The umpteenth remake (most notably of the 1959 Charlton Heston Best Picture winner) of the Biblical epic bombed with $11.2 million. I was kinder with a $16.3M prediction. With a reported $100 million budget, this stands as one of the largest flops of the year. Not even Morgan Freeman’s dreadlocks could save it.

Finally, outside of the top ten, the critically lauded Western thriller Hell or High Water expanded to 472 screens and had the highest per screen average of any film. It grossed $2.6 million and is expected to roll out even wider this weekend.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Hands of Stone Box Office Prediction

Centering on the relationship between real-life boxing legend Roberto Duran and his trainer Ray Arcel, Venezuelan filmmaker Jonathan Jakubowicz brings us Hands of Stone next weekend. Edgar Ramirez plays the fighter with Robert De Niro as his corner man. Costars include Usher (playing Sugar Ray Leonard), Ana de Armas, Ellen Barkin, Ruben Blades, and John Turturro.

The pic premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to a mixed reaction after sitting on the shelf for over two years (not a good sign). Movies about the sweet science have been prevalent this decade with hits like 2010’s The Fighter and last year’s Creed. They had the benefit of critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. There was last summer’s Southpaw with Jake Gyllenhaal, which managed to do just OK with a $52 million overall gross.

Hands of Stone arrives in the dog days of August, where new titles typically fight to reach double digits. The Weinstein Company is distributing and they’re rumored to be making a push for De Niro in the Supporting Actor Academy race. They will probably not be successful like Sylvester Stallone was for Creed. And this will likely not pack much of a punch in the box office ring.

Hands of Stone opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/mechanic-resurrection-box-office-prediction/

For my Don’t Breathe prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/dont-breathe-box-office-prediction/

Don’t Breathe Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the makers of the Evil Dead reboot are back with Don’t Breathe, a horror pic that is garnering early positive reviews. Fede Alvarez directs with Sam Raimi producing in this tale of some teenagers robbing a blind man’s home. That man (played by veteran character actor Stephen Lang) turns out to be quite a force to be reckoned with. Jane Levy and Dylan Minnette costar.

The film premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival this past spring to good notices. It currently stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s been a solid summer for horror – as The Conjuring 2 and Lights Out both performed well (especially the latter considering its tiny budget). Lights benefited from a simple concept and critical acclaim, yet I’m not sure that will be repeated here. The late August release date has not been kind to the genre over the past few years. Last summer’s Sinister 2 managed just $10.5 million and that was a sequel to a well-regarded predecessor. The best comparison might be 2013’s You’re Next, another well-reviewed title that only grossed $7 million for its start. I’ll say this manages to top that, but not by too much.

I’ll predict Don’t Breathe tops that meager figure, but not by much at all.

Don’t Breathe opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million

For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/mechanic-resurrection-box-office-prediction/

For my Hands of Stone prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/17/hands-of-stone-box-office-prediction/

Mechanic: Resurrection Box Office Prediction

Jason Statham starred in one of the biggest sequels of 2015 with Furious 7. He is highly unlikely to repeat himself this year as Mechanic: Resurrection hits screens next weekend. This is a follow-up to 2011’s The Mechanic, a remake of a 1972 Charles Bronson vehicle that performed fairly modestly with an $11.4 million opening and $29.1 million overall domestic gross. Frankly, I’m not really sure why this warrants a sequel.

The supporting cast includes Jessica Alba, Tommy Lee Jones, and Michelle Yeoh with Dennis Gansel taking over directorial duties from Simon West. While the past five years has given its star more exposure with hits like the aforementioned seventh Furious entry and Spy, I doubt that will be enough for Resurrection to rise above what its predecessor even earned. Heck, this isn’t even the most high-profile sequel ending in the word “Resurrection” (as Ripley and Winona Ryder could tell you).

In this same late August weekend last year, similar genre type pic Hitman: Agent 47 made $8.3 million. That actually seems about right for this and I’ll predict it just tops that unimpressive number.

Mechanic: Resurrection opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my Don’t Breathe prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/dont-breathe-box-office-prediction/

For my Hands of Stone prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/17/hands-of-stone-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 19-21

As the summer movie season beings to close out, three new titles open Friday and they could all experience similar grosses. They are the big-budget Ben-Hur remake, animated fantasy Kubo and the Two Strings, and Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/ben-hur-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/war-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/kubo-and-the-two-strings-box-office-prediction/

The difference in predictions between the trio of newcomers is a scant $3.6 million. I have Kubo edging out the others with Ben-Hur closely behind and War Dogs a bit further down.

As for where my loyal blog readers see my predictions: 53% currently feel my Kubo estimate is Just About Right with 30% saying Too High and 17% saying Too Low. 43% say Just About Right on Ben-Hur with 30% saying Too High and 27% saying Too Low. Those numbers for Hur show the unpredictability as to what it might accomplish or not accomplish. As for War Dogs, a whopping 61% think I’m Too Low with 39% saying Just About Right. A whole ZERO percent think I’m Too High on it.

Suicide Squad experienced a hefty decline in its sophomore frame. It shouldn’t be quite as big in its third weekend, but I still estimate it losing in the mid-50s. That should still keep at #1, unless one of the newcomers tops my forecast (which is certainly possible).

The story of this past weekend was the huge opening of Sausage Party (more on that below). I have it losing just over half its audience in weekend #2. Then there’s Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, which experienced a disappointing debut. Its “A” Cinemascore grade could mean a fairly soft decline, unless Kubo takes a nice portion of its family audience away (also possible). If it drops 40% or more, that would put Pete and his green friend in sixth place.

Bottom line: this is one unpredictable weekend where the grosses could be tightly bunched together. Here’s my top 6 predictions on how I believe it will play out:

Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Ben-Hur

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

5. War Dogs

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

6. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (August 12-14)

As expected, Suicide Squad dropped precipitously in its second weekend but managed to stay atop the box office rather easily with $43.5 million (a touch below my $45.7M prediction) for a total of $222 million. Its 67% dip isn’t quite as pronounced as Batman v Superman‘s 69%, but consider that the Caped Crusader/Man of Steel battle earned $33M more out of the gate than Harley Quinn and company.

The real fiesta was happening over at Columbia Pictures as Seth Rogen’s critically acclaimed raunchy animated Sausage Party produced a gross of $34.2 million. This was on the absolute highest end of expectations (as I totally underestimated it with $19.4M). Making its $30 million budget back in one weekend, expect a sequel to this and some other R rated ‘toons heading your way in the future.

Pete’s Dragon did not bring (or breathe, if you will) the kind of fire normally reserved for Disney live-action remakes. It opened in third with a muted $21.5 million (under my $29.8M estimate), despite solid reviews and its studio pedigree. Family audiences have had plenty to see this summer and the fact that this property was based on one of Disney’s lesser known properties clearly hurt.

Jason Bourne held nicely in weekend 3 with $13.8 million (ahead of my $11.4M forecast) for a total of $127M. Holding even better was Bad Moms in its third frame with $11.3 million (above my $9.3M prognosis) for a very good $71M.

Finally, Meryl Streep’s Florence Foster Jenkins debuted in 8th place with a quiet $6.6 million (I went a bit higher with $8.2M). Interestingly, that’s the exact same figure that Streep’s Ricki and the Flash opened with a year ago.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Kubo and the Two Strings Box Office Prediction

The animation division of Focus Features/Laika hopes for another solid performer as Kubo and the Two Strings plays theaters next weekend. The 3D stop-motion fantasy set in ancient Japan features a number of recognizable actors voicing the action, including Charlize Theron, Matthew McConaughey, Ralph Fiennes, Rooney Mara, and OG Sulu George Takei.

Travis Knight directs and he’s served as lead animator for all of Laika’s previous efforts. Those would be: 2009’s Coraline, which opened with $16.8 million; 2012’s ParaNorman, which debuted at $14 million; and 2014’s The Boxtrolls, which premiered with $17.2 million.

Those are some pretty consistent numbers and I believe Kubo should fall right in line with them. In fact, I believe Two Strings has a good shot at just outpacing its two competitors opening against it: the pricey Ben-Hur remake and Jonah Hill action/comedy War Dogs. My prediction puts this right at where Coraline got things started seven years ago and Boxtrolls left things two years back.

Kubo and the Two Strings opening weekend prediction: $17 million

For my Ben-Hur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/ben-hur-box-office-prediction/

For my War Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/war-dogs-box-office-prediction/

War Dogs Box Office Prediction

Director Todd Phillips brings his comedic sensibilities overseas in War Dogs, opening next weekend. It stars Jonah Hill and Miles Teller in the true life story of two dudes who make it big as arms dealers in Afghanistan. Ana de Armas and Hangover headliner Bradley Cooper are in the supporting cast.

Trailers and TV spots haven’t been shy about advertising that this comes from the Hangover team. Hill is a known commodity in the genre and he could help turnout. A few years back, just the involvement of Phillips would be a major box office pull. In the middle of the first and second Hangover, it even helped Due Date reached a gross of $100 million. Of course, the participation of Robert Downey, Jr. and Zach Galifianakis didn’t hurt. I’m skeptical the director’s name carries as much weight now, especially since his signature franchise ran out of steam.

I suspect War Dogs could have trouble finding a wide audience. War comedies can have a tough road. You can ask Tina Fey and the team behind this spring’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which faltered with only $7.4 million in its debut. Or George Clooney and the makers of 2009’s The Men Who Stare at Goats, which premiered with $12.7 million. This should manage to top that by a bit, but I’ll predict low teens for a lackluster start.

War Dogs opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million

For my Ben-Hur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/ben-hur-box-office-prediction/

For my Kubo and the Two Strings prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/kubo-and-the-two-strings-box-office-prediction/

Ben-Hur Box Office Prediction

Timur Berkmambetov’s $100 million remake of Ben-Hur chariots into theaters next weekend and it represents a massive and expensive risk from Paramount Pictures. The Biblical epic has actually been produced numerous times, though most famously in 1959 in the Oscar-winning Charlton Heston extravaganza.

This time around, Jack Huston is the title character with Morgan Freeman, Toby Kebbell, Nazanin Bonialdi, and Rodrigo Santoro (as Jesus) among the supporting cast. The director is best known for 2008’s hit Wanted and 2012’s Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.

Early reports have signaled a bumpy road ahead for this with projections in the mid-teens. For starters, people who are in their mid-teens and even older aren’t overly familiar with the source material. More mature audiences who hold the 1959 pic in high regard may not be clamoring for an action fueled remake. It begs the question: who will turn out for this?

Paramount is likely hoping Christian moviegoers will show up. That could be its best hope at hitting $20 million or over. Yet I’m skeptical. The stories indicating a weak teens opening will probably turn out to be accurate in my judgment and that means a costly flop for the studio. The similarly themed Gods of Egypt bombed with just $14.1 million earlier this year. I’ll say manages to slightly outdo that, but not by much.

Ben-Hur opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my War Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/war-dogs-box-office-prediction/

For my Kubo and the Two Strings prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/kubo-and-the-two-strings-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 12-14

Three new pics enter the marketplace in the second weekend of August as Disney’s live-action remake Pete’s Dragon, Seth Rogen’s raunchy animated Sausage Party, and Meryl Streep biopic Florence Foster Jenkins debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/petes-dragon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/sausage-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/florence-foster-jenkins-box-office-prediction/

None, in my view, will earn enough to dethrone Suicide Squad from a second weekend atop the charts. If Pete’s Dragon over performs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could place first, but my sub $30M forecast makes that scenario unlikely to me. The big question is how far will Squad fall in its sophomore frame after a record premiere (more on that below). I don’t believe it’ll dip quite as far as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year (69%), though it could be close and in the mid 60s.

As for Sausage Party, I look for it to almost reach $20M for a third place showing (solid considering its reported $30M budget). Truth be told, this Party is a bit of a wild card. I could see it doing $25M or $15M so I pretty much split the difference.

I’ll predict Mila Kunis and company have the smallest drop this weekend and that could put Bad Moms in a race with Jason Bourne (both in their third weekends) for the #4 position (though I’ll give Mr. Damon the edge by a couple million). As for Bad Singer Florence Foster Jenkins, its relatively low 1500 screen count has me putting it in sixth.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $45.7 million

2. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

As far as where my readers currently think I am with predictions on the newcomers:

A hefty 69% think I’m Too Low on Pete’s Dragon, 24% think Just About Right, and just 7% Too High

56% think I’m Too Low on Sausage Party, 23% Too High, 21% Just About Right

Florence Foster Jenkins: 54% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Box Office Results (August 5-7)

Suicide Squad easily broke the August opening weekend record (by nearly $40 million) as it earned $133.6 million. The DC comics adaptation was subject to mostly negative reviews. Mine was more mixed and you can read it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/05/suicide-squad-movie-review/

Squad did not quite match my goal of $144.3M that I had it at. The biggest worry from Warner Bros could be how far it drops in weekend 2, as discussed above. Its large dip from Friday to Saturday could be a sign of things to come.

Jason Bourne fell to second in weekend #2, tumbling further than I anticipated with a gross of $22.4 million compared to my $27.1M forecast. The fifth entry in the franchise has earned $103M so far.

Bad Moms experienced a nice hold for third at $14 million (above my $12.1M projection) for a two-week total of $50M.

The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $11.5 million (slightly above my $10.6M estimate) for a whopping total of $319M.

Star Trek Beyond rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.8M) for a tally of $127M.

Finally, the level of anticipation for a horribly reviewed Kevin Spacey cat reincarnation movie was under my guess. Nine Lives debuted in sixth with $6.2 million and under my generous $9.8M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Florence Foster Jenkins Box Office Prediction

Meryl Streep headlines the autobiographical comedic drama Florence Foster Jenkins, opening next weekend. Casting the record-setting Oscar nominee as the New York heiress in the early 1940s whose dream was to perform at Carnegie Hall (despite a questionable voice), Jenkins comes from The Queen director Stephen Frears. The supporting cast includes Hugh Grant, Simon Helberg, and Rebecca Ferguson.

The pic will attempt to bring in an older and mostly female audience as counter programming during the dog days of August. Reviews have been encouraging with a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating. In fact, Ms. Streep could be on the cusp of her 20th Academy Award nomination (especially if this performs well stateside).

That prospect is a bit questionable – both with box office numbers and a potential Oscar nod. Our lead does have a history in recent years with August premieres. 2009’s Julie and Julia scored with a $20 million start. 2012’s Hope Springs made a decent $14.6 million. Last year’s example wasn’t as successful as Ricki and the Flash (which received mixed critical notes) premiered with just $6.6 million. My estimate puts Florence a little closer to Ricki considering its rather low screen count opening of 1500 theaters.

Florence Foster Jenkins opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my Pete’s Dragon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/petes-dragon-box-office-prediction/

For my Sausage Party prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/sausage-party-box-office-prediction/

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