Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: February 17-20

President’s Day weekend has arrived at the box office with three new titles debuting over the four-day holiday frame: Matt Damon’s action epic The Great Wall, Ice Cube/Charlie Day comedy Fist Fight, and Gore Verbinski’s horror thriller A Cure for Wellness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/the-great-wall-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/fist-fight-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/a-cure-for-wellness-box-office-prediction/

None of the trio is likely to dislodge the Caped Crusader and his Lego friends from the top perch in its second weekend. In fact, this particular February weekend often sees holdovers experience smallish declines. The Lego Movie dipped just 9% in the 2014 PD weekend and I expect the same type of minor dip for its spin-off.

With the #1 film safely (I think) determined, the rest of the top five is much more unpredictable. Looking over the past few President’s Day weekends, newbies opening in the mid to high 20s is commonplace. This applied to titles such as Unknown, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, About Last Night, and Robocop. I foresee both Wall and Fight falling in this range for a photo finish for #2.

Then there’s Fifty Shades Darker and John Wick: Chapter 2, both in their sophomore weekends. I don’t see Darker having a 74% drop like its predecessor Fifty Shades of Grey experienced (it had a much bigger opening for one thing). However, I could see it losing half its audience easily as grosses for this franchise are front loaded. Wick may lose less than a third of its debut crowd for a solid hold. And that could create another photo finish between these sequels.

This leaves A Cure for Wellness. Strong reviews may have helped this, but it’s not getting them and I’m diagnosing just a low double digits premiere for a probable sixth place showing.

And with that, my top 6 projections for this busy weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $49.4 million (representing a drop of 6%)

2. The Great Wall

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

3. Fist Fight

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million

4. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)

5. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. A Cure for Wellness

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

Box Office Results (February 10-12)

The Lego Batman Movie took the top spot, though not with as much ease as many thought it would. The critically acclaimed animated spin-off grossed $53 million, a decent number but not near the $69M made by The Lego Movie in its inaugural weekend and under my $65.8M projection. That said, as mentioned above, its drop this weekend should be slight.

Fifty Shades Darker opened in second at $46.6 million, in line with my $44.8M estimate. This is far from the $85 million achieved two years back by Fifty Shades of Grey, but it’s actually above some of the predictions from prognosticators in the past week or so.

John Wick: Chapter 2 capitalized on the goodwill left over from the 2014 original with a strong $30.4 million, more than doubling the $14M earned by its predecessor two and a half years back. It easily eclipsed my $20.7M estimate.

Holdovers rounded out the top five with Split dropping to fourth at $9.5 million (I said $8.2M) for a $112M total and Hidden Figures at fifth with $8 million (I said $6.9M) for a $131M overall haul.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Cure for Wellness Box Office Prediction

The cinematic stylings of director Gore Verbinski returns to screens next weekend when A Cure for Wellness opens. The horror thriller set in the Swiss Alps finds Dane DeHaan as a businessman trapped in a mysterious “wellness” center. Jason Isaacs and Mia Goth costar. Its trailer is filled with striking visuals that have part of Verbinski’s repertoire. The filmmaker had some massive hits with The Ring and Pirates of the Caribbean and its first two sequels. However, his previous effort The Lone Ranger was an expensive dud.

While the previews look fascinating, reviews have not been very strong and it stands at just 36% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Its two and a half hour running time (something several critics have noted as a flaw) could also be a detriment, as well as competition for the same audience from John Wick: Chapter 2 and The Great Wall.

Wellness is highly likely to place third among the trio of newcomers debuting over Presidents Day weekend and it could struggle to place in the top five. I’ll say a low double digits premiere is the diagnosis here.

A Cure for Wellness opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my The Great Wall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/the-great-wall-box-office-prediction/

For my Fist Fight prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/fist-fight-box-office-prediction/

Fist Fight Box Office Prediction

Ice Cube and Charlie Day headline the comedy Fist Fight, which hits theaters over Presidents Day weekend. A loose remake of the 1987 cult pic Three O’Clock High, costars include Tracy Morgan (in his first film after his auto accident), Jillian Bell, Christina Hendricks, Dennis Haysbert, and Kumail Nanjiani.

Mr. Cube has had his share of laugh inducing hits and franchises over the years with Barbershop, 21/22 Jump Street, and Ride Along. Day is best known for TV’s “It Always Sunny in Philadelphia” and the Horrible Bosses flicks.

Fight pits Cube as a teacher challenging his fellow educator to a schoolyard brawl. With its simple concept, known stars in the genre, and really zero competition when it comes to comedies (save for Lego Batman I suppose), I’ll predict this manages a mid 20s four day debut. It could even fight for the highest opening among the two others newbies (The Great Wall, A Cure for Wellness) over the holiday weekend.

Fist Fight opening weekend prediction: $25.1 million

For my The Great Wall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/the-great-wall-box-office-prediction/

For my A Cure for Wellness prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/a-cure-for-wellness-box-office-prediction/

The Great Wall Box Office Prediction

Just a few months after reviving his Jason Bourne character, Matt Damon is back in theaters battling monsters in China in The Great Wall, out next weekend. This is the most expensive film shot entirely in that country and it was released overseas at the end of 2016, grossing over $200 million thus far. The historical action fantasy comes from acclaimed director Zhang Yimou, who’s responsible for foreign hits such as Raise the Red Lantern, Hero, and House of Flying Daggers. Costars include Jing Tian, Pedro Pascal, Andy Lau, and Willem Dafoe.

How will the pic, which seems made primarily to make its bulk of cash in Asia, play stateside? It could face some hurdles. Reviews haven’t been too strong and it stands at 44% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

As I see it, The Great Wall will be lucky to break $100 million domestically and it probably will fall short. Opening over the long Presidents Day weekend, I think it should manage a mid to high 20s debut with possibly a fairly steep decline the following weekend.

The Great Wall opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million

For my Fist Fight prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/fist-fight-box-office-prediction/

For my A Cure for Wellness prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/a-cure-for-wellness-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 10-12

It’s a bustling weekend of sequels and spin-offs as three new high-profile releases debut: animated spin-off The Lego Batman Movie, risque sequel Fifty Shades Darker, and Keanu Reeves action follow-up John Wick: Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/the-lego-batman-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/01/fifty-shades-darker-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/john-wick-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the trio of newcomers should have no trouble placing 1st-3rd on the charts. Lego is highly likely to come out on top and I’ve got making a bit less than the $69 million earned by The Lego Movie in 2014.

Prognosticators are pegging Fifty Shades Darker to earn about half of the fantastic $85 million made by Fifty Shades of Grey two years ago. That sounds about right.

The original John Wick from 2014 has turned into a cult hit after a decent box office performance and it looks to expand a bit on the $14 million debut of its predecessor.

The newbies should cause M. Night Shyamalan’s Split to fall to fourth place after three weeks at #1. The 5 spot could be a battle between A Dog’s Purpose, Hidden Figures, and Rings, but I’ll give Figures the slight edge.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $65.8 million

2. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

3. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

4. Split

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 43%

5. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 32%)

Box Office Results (February 3-5)

The Super Bowl weekend is typically a slower one at multiplexes and 2017 was no different. Split managed a three-peat in weekend #3 in the top spot as it grossed $14.4 million. My prediction? $14.4M! Yay! The Shyamalan hit stands at $98 million through the weekend and should pass the century mark today.

Audiences were more interested in Tom Brady’s rings than Rings, which disappointed at second with an unlucky $13 million. I went way higher with $20.3 million. It had been 12 years since the horror franchise was around and ambivalence to it was clearly shown. The pic is likely to experience a large drop in its sophomore frame and plummet right out of the top 5.

A Dog’s Purpose was third with $10.5 million, shy of my $12.5M forecast for a two-week total of $32M.

Hidden Figures was fourth with $10.1 million (in line with $10.7M prognosis) for a $119M overall tally as $150M looks well within its sights.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I said $8.3M) for a $118M haul as it dances its way to probable Oscar glory.

Finally, the oft delayed teenage sci-fi romance The Space Between Us bombed in ninth place with a measly $3.7 million debut compared to my $6.7M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

John Wick: Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction

In the fall of 2014, stylish action thriller John Wick exceeded box office expectations with it earned $14 million in its opening weekend and $43 million overall domestically. Since then, its cult status has grown and now Chapter 2 unfolds in theaters next weekend. Keanu Reeves returns in the title role and Chad Stahelski is back behind the camera. The sequel reunites Keanu with his Matrix costar Laurence Fishburne. Other supporting cast includes Common, Ian McShane, John Leguizamo, and Ruby Rose (appearing in her third 2017 pic after January’s xXx: Return of Xander Cage and Resident Evil: The Final Chapter).

Wick is debuting alongside two other sequels and spin-offs in the second weekend of February as The Lego Batman Movie and Fifty Shades Darker also premiere. There’s little doubt that this will place third among them, but I still look for it to eclipse the opening number of its predecessor.

I’ll forecast that Chapter 2 manages a high teens to low 20s rollout.

John Wick: Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

For my The Lego Batman Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/the-lego-batman-movie-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades Darker prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/01/fifty-shades-darker-box-office-prediction/

The Lego Batman Movie Box Office Prediction

Three February’s ago, Warner Bros hit the animation jackpot with The Lego Movie. A proper sequel is on its way come 2019, but in the meantime we have a spin-off based on one of the most popular characters as The Lego Batman Movie hits theaters next weekend.

The 3D computer generated pic returns Will Arnett as the Caped Crusader in this action comedy from director Chris McKay, who was animation co-director on Lego. Zach Galifianakis voices The Joker, Michael Cera is Robin, Rosario Dawson is Batgirl, and Ralph Fiennes lends support as butler Alfred.

As the original is only three years old and the Lego line has a dedicated base, Lego fans should come out in droves for this. That said, I don’t quite expect this to match the $69 million achieved in the first weekend by its predecessor (it eventually made $257 million domestically). A high 50s to potentially high 60s gross seems more feasible, meaning it should debut at #1 ahead of Christian and Anastasia in Fifty Shades Darker.

The Lego Batman Movie opening weekend prediction: $65.8 million

For my Fifty Shades Darker prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/01/fifty-shades-darker-box-office-prediction/

For my John Wick: Chapter 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/john-wick-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

Fifty Shades Darker Box Office Prediction

Two years ago, the film version of the E.L. James novel Fifty Shades of Grey made a killing in theaters. This prompted the back to back shooting of second and third sequels Fifty Shades Darker and Fifty Shades Freed. Next weekend, Darker hits screens and hopes to keep the momentum going.

Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan are back in the roles of Anastasia Steele and Christian Grey as their, shall we say, unique love life is further explored. Costars include Marcia Gay Harden, Kim Basinger, Luke Grimes, and Rita Ora. James Foley takes over directorial duties from Sam Taylor-Johnson (Foley will also helm the third installment out in February 2018).

The initial pairing of these kinky leads led to a box office bonanza in February 2015 when Grey took in an astonishing $85 million in its first weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $166 million.

Early tracking suggests Darker is highly unlikely to compete with that opening frame gross. In fact, it’s been speculated that this follow-up may only earn about half that number. This sounds about right. While Grey easily took the #1 spot out of the gate, this opens against The Lego Batman Movie and probably won’t whip that serious competition. I’ll say Darker gets to the mid 40s for its start, which is still pretty solid considering its reported $55M budget.

Fifty Shades Darker opening weekend prediction: $44.8 million

For my The Lego Batman Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/the-lego-batman-movie-box-office-prediction/

For my John Wick: Chapter 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/john-wick-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 3-5

The first weekend of February brings new titles to the marketplace to compete with holdovers and a football game on Sunday. They are: long gestating horror sequel Rings and sci-fi teen romance The Space Between Us. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/25/rings-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/26/the-space-between-us-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, both The Bye Bye Man and Split exceeded their opening weekend expectations (more on the terrific Split earnings below). It’s been a bountiful 2017 thus far for the horror genre and I believe Rings will debut just north of $20M for a first place showing.

The Space Between Us should struggle to reach the top 5 and my mid single digits forecast for it leaves it on the outside. Current #1 and #2 Split and A Dog’s Purpose should slide down a spot with awards hopefuls Hidden Figures and La La Land rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Rings

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. A Dog’s Purpose

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 24%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. The Space Between Us

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (January 27-29)

If the $40 million opening didn’t convince you, the second weekend of Split solidified director M. Night Shyamalan’s major comeback. The horror thriller took in $25.6 million in its sophomore frame (higher than my $18.5M forecast) to bring its total to $77 million. The century mark is in its sights and it experienced the smallest week 2 decline of any Shyamalan effort since The Sixth Sense.

Despite controversy, A Dog’s Purpose brought in a pleasing $18.2 million for a solid second place showing. This was much more than my $10.3M projection, which I revised down from an original estimate of $17.9M. Should have stuck with my first thought…

Hidden Figures (which won the main SAG prize yesterday) was third with $14 million compared to my $12.8M prediction. The Oscar nominee now stands at $104M.

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter posted a franchise low debut in fourth with just $13.6 million, just below my $14.6M estimate. Look for it to fade fast.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $12.2 million, above my $9.9M guesstimate. Like Figures, it also joined the $100M+ club as it’s made $106M.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.6 million, in line with my $8.9M estimate for a weak tally of $33M.

Sing was seventh with $6.4 million (I said $5.6M) to pad its now $257M take.

Finally, Matthew McConaughey posted a career low wide opening with Gold. It only managed a 10th place debut with $3.4 million (I went higher with $5.4M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Space Between Us Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the genres of science fiction and teen romance are intertwined when The Space Between Us lifts off in theaters. The film stars Asa Butterfield (who played the title role in 2013’s Ender’s Game) alongside the busy Britt Robertson (currently costarring in A Dog’s Purpose), Gary Oldman, and Carla Gugino.

Just like Rings (the only pic opening wide on the same day), Space has been delayed more than once by its studio. It was originally scheduled to open last July, then August, then December, and finally now. I don’t really see a scenario where this breaks out with its intended audience of genre buffs and females looking for some YA type material.

The film is based on an original idea, so there’s no known source material for moviegoers to base their anticipation on. Marketing for Space has been rather ho-hum as well. I’ll predict it only manages a mid to higher single digits gross and fades quickly.

The Space Between Us opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million

For my Rings prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/25/rings-box-office-prediction/