Tag: Box Office

Pitch Perfect 3 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (12/20/17): I am revising my PP3 estimate from $40.6 million for the four-day to $33.6 million.

The Bellas are back for the holidays as Pitch Perfect 3 hits theaters next Friday. Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Hailee Steinfeld, Brittany Snow, Anna Camp, Alexis Knapp, and Hana Mae Lee are among returnees alongside Elizabeth Banks and John Michael Higgins. Newcomers to the series include Ruby Rose and John Lithgow. Trish Sie directs.

The 2012 original was a sleeper hit which grossed $65 million and then became more of a sensation once it became available for home viewing. The summer 2015 sequel shocked all prognosticators with a $69 million opening weekend (topping its predecessor’s entire domestic run) and $184 million overall.

It’s no surprise therefore that Universal Pictures wanted a third helping of accapella comedy. Two and a half years later, Pitch 3 faces competition even in its own musical genre with Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman debuting two days prior. That said, the Bellas appear to have a built-in audience and it could be dangerous to underestimate them.

I still believe Pitch 2 could turn out to be the high water mark in the franchise. A debut in the low to mid 40s would probably put part 3 in the #3 spot behind the second weekend of Star Wars and the first for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. Yet with its reported smallish budget of $45 million, that should still be music to the studio’s ears.

Pitch Perfect 3 opening weekend prediction: $33.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/11/jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-box-office-prediction/

For my The Greatest Showman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/the-greatest-showman-box-office-prediction/

For my Downsizing prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/13/downsizing-box-office-prediction/

For my Father Figures prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/14/father-figures-box-office-prediction/

The Greatest Showman Box Office Prediction

20th Century Fox is hoping moviegoers will be in tune with their offering The Greatest Showman over the long holiday when it opens next Wednesday. The musical period piece casts Hugh Jackman in the role of circus master P.T. Barnum with a supporting cast that includes Zac Efron, Michelle Williams, Rebecca Ferguson, and Zendaya. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Gracey.

Mr. Jackman has found Christmastime success in this genre before five years with Les Miserables. Expectations aren’t quite as high here, but the reported $84 million production will try to bring in an adult female audience that could be slightly under served. Showman received three Golden Globe nods just yesterday for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy), for Jackman in Best Actor, and for Original Song.

That said, there is some direct competition in the form of Pitch Perfect 3, which arrives two days later and Downsizing, which is also looking to attract an older crowd. I’ll say Showman manages a mid to possibly high teens gross for the four-day weekend that includes Christmas and low to possibly mid 20s for its six-day take.

The Greatest Showman opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/11/jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-box-office-prediction/

For my Pitch Perfect 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/pitch-perfect-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Downsizing prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/13/downsizing-box-office-prediction/

For my Father Figures prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/14/father-figures-box-office-prediction/

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (12/20/17): My Jumanji prediction has been lowered.

Even with the considerable competition including the second weekend of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, animated fare like Ferdinand and Coco, and a slew of other holiday wide releases, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle looks primed for a healthy box office haul. The board game related comedic adventure follows up on the 1995 Robin Williams hit with a cast that includes Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillan, Bobby Cannavale, and Nick Jonas. Jake Kasdan directs.

It doesn’t hurt that Johnson and Hart are two of the more bankable stars around (their collaboration Central Intelligence was a blockbuster). It also helps that the wealth is usually spread around on Christmas weekend. Jumanji debuts on Wednesday next week as it looks to play well throughout the long weekend frame.

Kids should turn out if they’re not clamoring to see Jedi a second time. The X factor here that makes me believe it could over perform? It’s garnering surprisingly solid buzz with a Rotten Tomatoes score currently at 82%. An even more important factor could be the nostalgia one as older moviegoers are quite familiar with the 22-year-old original. We already have witnessed how that dynamic propelled Jurassic World to amazing numbers.

Jumanji will be no Jurassic, but I certainly believe a four-day take in the mid 40s and mid 60s six-day take is quite doable. That should put it in second after Jedi for the holidays.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opening weekend prediction: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my The Greatest Showman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/the-greatest-showman-box-office-prediction/

For my Pitch Perfect 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/pitch-perfect-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Downsizing prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/13/downsizing-box-office-prediction/

For my Father Figures prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/14/father-figures-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: December 15-17

As the weekend approaches, the burning box office questions are clear:

How will the animated Ferdinand open after Pixar’s Coco has dominated the charts for three weeks straight?

Could Wonder jump above Justice League as they enter their fifth respective weekends?

How well will The Disaster Artist hold after an impressive 800 theater expansion?

Oh… who am I kidding? We all know what this weekend is really about…

Star Wars: The Last Jedi freaking opens!!! After The Force Awakens crushed every box office record in sight two years ago, anticipation is mighty high for episode VIII. You can read my detailed prediction on it and Ferdinand here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/04/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/06/ferdinand-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I have Jedi slated for the second biggest domestic debut of all time behind its predecessor. My estimate puts it about $28 million shy of Awakens.

My take on Ferdinand is that it will get close to $20 million (it could surpass it) for a solid second place showing as it will may play well into the holiday frames ahead.

The rest of the top 6 should be filled with leftovers as a handful of high-profile titles open in the approaching Christmas weekend.

Here’s my top 6 projections:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $219.7 million

2. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $18.6 milion

3. Coco

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Disaster Artist

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (December 8-10) 

It was the quiet before the Force this weekend as Coco remained #1 for the third weekend in a row with $18.4 million, right on pace with my $18.3 million forecast. The Pixar effort has amassed $135 million total.

Justice League was second with $9.6 million (a bit above my $8.2 million prediction) as it’s earned $212 million overall.

Wonder placed third with $8.4 million (I said $7.6 million) as it crossed the century mark at $100 million.

The Disaster Artist received a nice expansion with a fourth place showing at $6.3 million, ahead of my $4.2 million projection.

Thor: Ragnarok rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $6.5 million) as it blew past the triple century mark at $301 million.

Finally, the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones comedy Just Getting Started sputtered in 10th place with just $3.2 million – not matching my generous $5.2 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Star Wars: The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction

The cinematic event of 2017 invades theaters next Friday when Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise arrives 40 years after the original changed the landscape of the moviegoing world. In more recent times, it is of course the sequel to 2015’s The Force Awakens, which broke every box office record in its path. It had the biggest opening of all time and is the highest grossing picture of all time (not adjusted for inflation).

What J.J. Abrams started two December’s ago is continued here with Rian Johnson handling directorial duties (Abrams will be back for episode IX). Returnees from Awakens include Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Adam Driver, Andy Serkis, Anthony Daniels, Lupita Nyong’o, and Domhnall Gleeson. Of course, there’s also Mark Hamill back as Luke Skywalker and with considerably more screen time and Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia in her final performance. Familiar faces entering the Star Wars universe for the first time include Benicio del Toro, Laura Dern, and Kelly Marie Tran.

The Force Awakens obliterated the all-time opening weekend to the tune of $247 million with a $936 million eventual domestic haul. Anticipation for the follow-up is feverish. That said, Jedi is not expected to top its predecessor out of the gate. A more serious question is whether or not it will manage the second biggest stateside premiere in history.

First things first : it should not have trouble nabbing the 2017 record by sailing past another Disney title, Beauty and the Beast at $174 million. And it will absolutely be the runner-up franchise opening, which currently is last year’s spin-off Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at $155 million.

In order to achieve the #2 debut, it will need to top the $208 million earned by Jurassic World in 2015. I am predicting it will manage to get there with about $10 million to spare as it sets up for a long run over the holidays.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend prediction: $219.7 million

For my Ferdinand prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/06/ferdinand-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: December 8-10

The second weekend of December at the box office may look similar to this past one with Pixar’s Coco atop the charts for the third time. Unlike this previous frame, there are some newcomers as the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones geriatric comedy Just Getting Started debuts and James Franco’s critically heralded The Disaster Artist greatly expands its theater count. You can peruse my Just Getting Started detailed prediction here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/29/just-getting-started-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Just Getting Started may be lucky to eek out a fifth place showing. The Disaster Artist could be a wild card, but if its estimated 800 screen expansion stands, I’ll put it at $4.2 million and outside the top 5. Should its theater count expand, so will my forecast for it.

All in all, it’s a rather quiet weekend. However, that won’t last long as Star Wars: The Last Jedi is on deck next weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Just Getting Started

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Coco ruled the top spot again with $27.5 million, a bit ahead of my $25.2 million projection. The Pixar pic has taken in $110 million since its Thanksgiving release.

Justice League was second once again at $16.6 million (in line with my $16.8 million prediction) for a total of $197 million.

Wonder took third with $12.1 million (a bit below my $14.4 million calculation) for $87 million overall.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $9.8 million, topping my $7.7 million estimate for $291 million thus far.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fifth with $7.5 million (I was close at $7.1 million) for an $82 million overall gross.

Murder on the Orient Express was sixth with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and it’s made $84 million.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back Monday with full box office predictions for the following weekend and tomorrow I will post my detailed Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend estimate!

Just Getting Started Box Office Prediction

A pair of Oscar winners hope to bring in an older audience next weekend when Just Getting Started premieres. Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones star as retirees taking on the Mob in this comedy from Ron Shelton, best known for his directorial efforts of the past including Bull Durham and White Men Can’t Jump. Rene Russo, Glenne Headly (in her final film role), and Joe Pantoliano are among the supporting players.

Freeman has been appearing in these geriatric yuck fests with increasing frequency as of late. Earlier in the year, Going in Style debuted to a decent $11.9 million. 2013’s Last Vegas fared even better with an opening north of $16 million. A number similar to Style would seem to be the absolute high bar here. However, I have trouble seeing this getting into double digits.

One big reason: distributor Broad Green Pictures is bankrupt and promotion for Started has been muted at best. A theater count will help shed light on its potential and my estimate could be adjusted accordingly. My initial feeling is that this just gets started in the mid single digits and fades quickly.

Just Getting Started opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

Box Office Predictions: December 1-3

The December box office begins slowly with Thanksgiving/November leftovers sure to rule the charts. There are no new wide releases this weekend as Hollywood takes a breath to prepare for the would-be Christmas season blockbusters.

In other words, it’s a rather dull week. The post Turkey Day weekend is known for seeing holdovers have rather significant drops from the holiday frame that preceded it and that should hold true here. I don’t look for much change in the rankings as Pixar’s Coco should easily retain the top spot.

And with that, my top 6 predictions:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

2. Justice League 

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 59%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2 

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

As expected (especially after the disappointing opening of Justice League), Pixar’s Coco topped the Thanksgiving charts with $50.8 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend. Since its Wednesday start, it’s made $72.9 million. That’s a touch under my respective forecasts of $54.1 million and $74.6 million yet it’s still a solid debut for the studio as it looks to play well in the coming weekends. It stands an excellent chance at being the #1 picture for three weeks in a row before a certain other Disney property is unleashed on December 15th.

Justice League dropped to second with its continued less than anticipated earnings at $41 million, right on target with my $41.6 million projection. The DC pic has earned $171 million thus far and is on pace to be the lowest earner in its particular cinematic universe.

Wonder was third with $22.6 million. I was a tad higher at $25.4 million. Regardless, the sleeper hit has surpassed all expectations and taken in $69 million as it looks to join the $100 million club in the coming weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $16.8 million, in line with my prediction of $16.2 million. The MCU hit has amassed $277 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 took the five-spot with $13.2 million, a tad ahead of my $11.9 million estimate for a total of $72 million.

Murder on the Orient Express was right behind in sixth with $13.1 million (I was lower at $10.8 million). The Kenneth Branagh mystery, which will have a sequel with his Poirot character returning, stands at $74 million.

The faith-based animated The Star was seventh in its sophomore frame with $6.9 million compared to my $8.6 million forecast for $22 million overall.

Finally, Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. failed to impress, debuting wide in ninth with just $4.4 million (I said $5 million). With no awards buzz and middling buzz, expect it to fade quickly.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 24-26

It’s Thanksgiving week at the box office as Disney/Pixar’s Coco looks to reign supreme over the leftovers and Denzel Washington’s courtroom drama Roman J. Israel Esq. also expands nationwide. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

Coco Box Office Prediction

Roman J. Israel, Esq. Box Office Prediction

My Coco estimate is likely to put it in the #1 spot over Justice League, due to the latter’s rather disappointing debut (more on that below). The #3 position should easily go to Wonder, which opened with great results this past weekend (more on that below as well).

The Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally one where holdovers experience smallish declines and I see that holding true for titles such as Thor: Ragnarok, Daddy’s Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, and The Star. 

As for Denzel’s Roman, my $5 million prediction for it over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend puts it outside the top 7 I’m estimating today. And here they are…

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $54.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $74.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million (representing a drop of 8%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 25%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 22%)

7. The Star

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 12%)

Box Office Results (November 17-19)

Warner Bros. is dealing with some disappointment this weekend as Justice League suffered a lackluster opening. I had DC’s version of The Avengers nabbing the third highest premiere of 2017 with $128.4 million. However, it grossed well under forecasts with $93.8 million.

That debut is good for just the 8th largest of the year, about $10 million behind Wonder Woman, which wasn’t expected to make the bank that it did. It serves as the DC Cinematic Universe’s smallest opening thus far. That Wonder Woman sequel can’t come soon enough…

The other story of the weekend was the terrific debut of Wonder in second, which defied all expectations with $27.5 million (way above my meager $12.9 million forecast). With great word-of-mouth, expect the drama to perform well over the holiday weekend and for the next several weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok dropped to third after two weeks on top with $21.6 million (under my $25 million estimate) to bring its total to $247 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fourth in weekend #2 with $14.4 million (shy of my $15.9 million projection) for a $50 million overall tally.

In its sophomore weekend, Murder on the Orient Express was fifth with $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for $51 million total.

Debuting in sixth place was the faith-based animated pic The Star, which pretty much met expectations with $9.8 million (in line with $10.3 million prediction). It could benefit from low declines over Thanksgiving.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Roman J. Israel, Esq. Box Office Prediction

Denzel Washington headlines Roman J. Israel, Esq., which expands nationwide over the Thanksgiving weekend. From Nightcrawler director Tony Gilroy, the legal drama hopes to appeal to the star’s fans and adult moviegoers looking for alternatives over the Turkey Day frame. Colin Farrell and Carmen Ejogo costar.

Israel has some issues that could block it from achieving solid grosses. While Washington can be a draw, this isn’t an action pic which are often his highest earners. Additionally, there is little awards buzz and reviews have been mixed (it sits at 55% currently on Rotten Tomatoes).

I’ll estimate that this won’t even reach double digits over the full five-day holiday weekend.

Roman J. Israel, Esq. opening weekend prediction: $5 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Coco prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/14/coco-box-office-prediction/