A trio of multiple Oscar winners team up for The Post, which expands nationwide next weekend over the four-day MLK holiday frame. The dramatic political thriller from Steven Spielberg is headlined by Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kay Graham and Tom Hanks as editor Ben Bradlee and their exposure of the Nixon Adminstration’s Pentagon Papers scandal. Costars include Bob Odenkirk, Sarah Paulson, Tracy Letts, Bradley Whitford, Bruce Greenwood, and Carrie Coon.
Unsurprisingly, the film has garnered some Oscar attention for itself and looks to be a player in numerous races when nominations are announced on January 23rd. The Post has received lots of ink for its comparisons to the political scene today. Reviews have been mostly strong and it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Boasting its A list director and two stars, this should accomplish its mission of appealing to adult moviegoers. It’s performed extremely well in limited release thus far. I’ll predict this posting a low to mid 20s debut.
The Post opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
During last year’s Martin Luther King holiday weekend, Taraji P. Henson had the #1 film with her Oscar nominated HiddenFigures. In 2018, she’s back in the action thriller ProudMary. The pic finds her cast as a Boston hitwoman from director Babak Najafi, best known for making poorly received sequel LondonHasFallen. Supporting players include Billy Brown, Danny Glover, Neal McDonough, and Margaret Avery.
While she’s best known for “Empire” television work, Henson’s big screen track record has been rather impressive with her roles in Figures, TheKarateKid remake, and NoGoodDeed.
ProudMary could have the advantage of attracting some genre fans, as well as African Americans and females (a demographic often underserved with action flicks). I believe this could post a high teens debut, which would put it above direct genre competition TheCommuter.
ProudMary opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
It’s been nine years since Liam Neeson reinvented himself as everyone’s go to elder action star with Taken. The last couple of years have seen him focusing on other genres, but he’s back in kick ass mode next weekend with TheCommuter. This marks his fourth collaboration with director Jaume Collet-Serra after Unknown, Non–Stop, and RunAllNight. Costars include Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga (presumably doing no conjuring work), as well as Sam Neill, Jonathan Banks, and Elizabeth McGovern.
Mr. Neeson’s first two pictures with this director came while he was still packing in audiences with the Taken franchise. That helped propel Unknown and Non–Stop to openings above $20 million. RunAllNight (and another more recent Neeson action flick AWalkAmongtheTombstones) both failed to reach the teens in their debuts.
TheCommuter has received decent reviews so far and sits at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, recent evidence has shown the star’s box office potency in the genre has waned. I’ll predict this reaches low to possibly higher teens for its four-day MLK weekend debut.
TheCommuter opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.
The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.
Paddington2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The first full weekend of 2018 begins with one major new release – Insidious: The Last Key, the fourth entry in the Blumhouse horror franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As I see it, the newbie looks poised for a third place showing. The top two should be held by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. However, unlike the last two weekends, I don’t see it in that order.
Jumanji came within a half million dollars of unseating Jedi for the four-day New Year’s weekend. I’ll predict it has a smaller percentage drop and rises to the top spot in weekend #3.
I also see The Greatest Showman vaulting above Pitch Perfect 3 to stay in the #4 position.
Here’s my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $29.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Insidious: The Last Key
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Box Office Results (December 29-January 1)
The year ended with a box office photo finish between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, adding some excitement as Luke Skywalker and company nearly were knocked off their #1 perch.
Jedi managed to take the top spot with $66.8 million (below my four-day estimate of $77.8 million) to bring its total to $531 million. While this is well below what Force Awakens earned, Jedi did become 2017’s highest grossing film over Disney’s Beauty and the Beast.
Jumanji was right behind with $66.3 million (topping my $58 million forecast) for a total of $185 million thus far. As mentioned above, look for this to vault to #1 this weekend.
Pitch Perfect 3 was third with $21.6 million compared to my $25.1 million prediction in its second weekend for a $68 million overall gross.
The Greatest Showman was close behind in fourth with $20.9 million, displaying great legs and easily eclipsing my $14.9 million projection. It’s at $54 million overall.
Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $14.8 million (I said $12.5 million) for $57 million total.
Coco was sixth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) for a $182 million tally.
All the Money in the World took the seven spot with a solid $7.2 million compared to my $5.2 million prediction for $14 million thus far.
Darkest Hour was eighth with $7 million (I said $7.3 million) and $19 million total.
Downsizing was ninth at $6.2 million (I said $6.1 million) for $16 million overall while The Shape of Water was 11th at $4.7 million (I said $5.7 million) and it’s also made $16 million.
I incorrectly had Father Figures outside the top ten, but it was 10th with $4.9 million and $14 million overall.
The first new wide release of 2018 is out next Friday when Insidious: The Last Key enters theaters. This is the fourth chapter in the franchise that began in 2011. Like Chapter 3, it’s a prequel to the events of the first two. In other words, no Patrick Wilson or Rose Byrne (the stars of the originals). James Wan, director and 1 and 2, produces with Adam Robitel behind the camera. Leigh Whannell, who’s served as writer for all of them, costars along with Lin Shaye, Angus Sampson, Josh Stewart, and Bruce Davison.
One factor that could assist The Last Key is the absence of horror flicks in the marketplace at the moment. That said, this franchise has been losing its luster. The 2011 original debuted to $13 million but legged out very nicely for its genre with an eventual $54 million gross. The 2013 sequel was the pinnacle with a terrific $40 million opening weekend and $83 million total tally. Chapter 3 in 2015 premiered to $22 million, but ended up as the lowest earner of the series with $52 million.
I don’t see a compelling reason why part 4 will rebound. For comparison sake, I could see this performing similarly to 2014’s Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which opened in the first weekend of January to just over $18 million. Like this, that was an entry in a franchise whose steam had dissipated. That number seems to be where Key fits best.
Insidious: The Last Key opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
Well folks – here we are as 2017 closes out with another four-day holiday weekend and it’s enough to make a great mathematician’s head spin.
Blogger’s note: I am not a great mathematician. Nevertheless, I will plow forward with estimates as there’s no new releases. Yet there are a multitude of holiday holdovers looking to match or even surpass what they accomplished this past Christmas weekend.
You have to travel all the way to 2006 for the last time Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a Monday. When that occurred 11 years ago, the bulk of pictures significantly exceeded the three-day grosses from the December 22-24 frame. Most even experienced an uptick from the Yuletide four-day frame. We should see that happen again as moviegoers have lots of free time during this end of year period, they’re using those gift certificates, and the kiddos are off school.
Here’s how I have the top 10 looking to close out another year on the box office charts:
**Please note that the increases noted would be from the three-day Christmas grosses (22-24) to the four-day New Year’s weekend predictions…
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $77.8 million (representing an increase of 9%)
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $58 million (representing an increase of 59%)
3. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million (representing an increase of 26%)
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing an increase of 69%)
5. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 71%)
6. Coco
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 82%)
7. Darkest Hour
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing an increase of 88%)
8. Downsizing
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)
9. The Shape of Water
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing an increase of 90%)
10. All the Money in the World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (December 22-25)
It was indeed a bustling Christmas weekend as some newbies rose above expectations while others fell considerably short. There were also impressive expansions of awards contenders.
Yet as anticipated, Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily took the top spot in weekend #2. However, it did so with numbers far short of my estimate. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise took in $99 million (well short of my $129 million estimate) for an overall tally of $395 million.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gave Sony reason to celebrate with an estimated (final number still not in on Wednesday at noon for some reason) $55.4 million over the four-day. This tops my $40.5 million prediction. Since its Wednesday debut, Jungle has amassed $72 million (above my $55.1 million take). It would appear this franchise will continue on.
Pitch Perfect 3 opened in third to a decent $26.4 million. Still, that’s under my $33.6 million forecast and well under what its predecessor achieved two years ago.
Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman posted fourth with $14.4 million for the four-day and $19 million since its Wednesday start. These are a touch under my respective estimates of $16.1 million and $22.4 million. That’s a tad underwhelming, but I see it holding up well this weekend.
Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $11.2 million) for a $29 million overall tally.
Coco was sixth with $8.1 million (I said $8.8 million) as the Pixar flick has grossed $164 million total.
Debuting in seventh and quite disappointingly was Matt Damon’s Downsizing at just $7.6 million compared to my $11.7 million prediction. With mixed critical reaction and poor word-of-mouth, look for this to diminish fast.
Darkest Hour, which boasts Best Actor Oscar front-runner Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, was 8th as it expanded its theater count. It grossed $5.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 10.
Besides Downsizing, the other new flop of the weekend was Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. The poorly reviewed pic opened ninth at just $5.4 million (under my $8.6 million estimate).
The Shape of Water (another Oscar contender) took 10th as it opened wider with $4.4 million. Again, I missed the mark and had this outside the top 10.
And that does it for now, ladies and gents! It’s been quite a treat bringing you my box office predictions for 2017 and it will continue into 2018! Until then…
Well, it’s Christmas week at the box office and that creates one busy time with FIVE new pictures debuting either Wednesday or Friday. They are: fantasy action reboot/sequel Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle with Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart, musical comedy sequel Pitch Perfect 3, Hugh Jackman’s musically inclined The Greatest Showman, Matt Damon’s sci-fi dramedy Downsizing, and Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. You can read my detailed prediction posts on them all here:
It doesn’t end there. Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, the well-publicized crime drama due to its recasting of Kevin Spacey debuts on Christmas Day (Monday). Its grosses will only factor in for its one day earnings this weekend. I’ll predict $3.2 million, which should put it outside the top 10.
And there are awards hopefuls expanding their theater counts. Both The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour are expected to do so. Either of them (especially Water) could factor into the top 10 based on the number of screens. However, I’m not including either (yet) without theater counts. I’ll revise my top 10 if they creep in.
As I see it, Jumanji is riding a wave of good buzz and decent reviews and I have it placing second. Pitch Perfect 3 is its most serious competitor and part 2 did totally unexpected numbers a couple of years back. I still have it third.
The rest of the top five could be filled with other newbies The Greatest Showman and Downsizing. The Christmas weekend often sees meager drops for holdovers, especially for family fare. That could benefit both Ferdinand and Coco. The former could stay in the top 5 depending on how Downsizing performs.
And then we get to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which just had the 2nd highest domestic opening of all time (more on that below). Over the last two Christmas weekends, we’ve seen both Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story enter their sophomore weekends and experience drops in the high 30s. It’s worth noting that the Awakens dip was over a three-day weekend and not 2017’s four-day frame. I still foresee Jedi dwindling about 39% for what should easily be a return weekend atop the charts.
Whew. OK… and with that, my top 10 predictions for the four-day holiday frame:
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $129 million (representing a drop of 41%)
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $33.6 million
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. Downsizing
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
6. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 16%)
7. Coco
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 12%)
8. Father Figures
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
9. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 14%)
10. Daddy’s Home 2
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 11%)
**The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour screen counts could alter top ten on Thursday (12/21)
Box Office Results (December 15-17)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi had no trouble landing the second biggest opening ever behind its predecessor The Force Awakens. The eighth episode in the vaunted franchise took in $220 million, right on target with $219.7 million prediction. Disney should be ecstatic with this result. Jedi should easily top the box office for the foreseeable future.
The Jedi effect caused some newcomers and holdovers to fall below my estimates. Animated Ferdinand debuted in second with $13.4 million, under my $18.6 million projection. The good news? As seen above, it should experience a nice hold entering this weekend.
Coco was third with $9.9 million (I was a bit higher at $11.2 million) for $150 million total.
Wonder was in the four spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to bring its earnings to $109 million.
Justice League rounded out the top 5 with $4.3 million (I said $4.2 million) for $219 million overall.
Daddy’s Home 2 was sixth with $3.8 million. I incorrectly held it outside the top 6. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg sequel has made $96 million and should easily cross the century mark this weekend.
Finally, I incorrectly had The Disaster Artist in my top 6, but it suffered a hefty decline and placed 8th with $2.7 million compared to my more generous $4.3 million. The James Franco pic stands at $13 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… and Merry Christmas from your trusty blogger!
Looking to tickle the funny bones of audiences over the long holiday weekend, Father Figures debuts next Friday. The pic casts Owen Wilson and Ed Helms as brothers searching for their biological pops after mom Glenn Close informs them it could be several men. J.K. Simmons, Christopher Walken, Ving Rhames, and Terry Bradshaw (playing himself) are among them. Katt Williams, June Squibb, and Harry Shearer are included in the supporting cast with Lawrence Sher directing.
Originally titled Bastards, the comedy was originally slated by Warner Bros. for a November 2016 opening before a delay until January 2017 and finally this Christmastime release. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence with the multiple push backs.
Figures has plenty of competition and of the five wide releases premiering over the weekend, it will likely place fifth among them. Its best hope would be to replicate what Why Him? (last year’s Christmas entry in the genre) did with $15.5 million over the four-day frame.
That could be wishful thinking. I’ll predict this only reaches high single digits to low double digits for its roll out.
Father Figures opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
Director Alexander Payne’s latest Downsizing hits screens next Friday for a holiday release. The science fiction dramedy features Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Jason Sudeikis, Christoph Waltz, and Hong Chau.
Payne has seen his last three films – Sideways, The Descendants, Nebraska – all nab Best Picture nominations. Downsizing was once seen as an Oscar contender until it premiered at the Venice Film Festival months ago to mixed reviews (it stands at a muted 64% on Rotten Tomatoes). In fact, its only Academy chatter is focused on costar Chau, who could manage a Supporting Actress nod.
The near complete lack of awards chatter has muted the buzz for this project. The pic also has plenty of competition for its intended adult audience, including The Greatest Showman and various other genuine Oscar hopefuls.
Add that up and I feel Downsizing will experience a debut in the low double digits or teens. That would a bit under another Damon flick from an acclaimed director released over Christmas from six years ago, Cameron Crowe’s We Bought a Zoo.
Downsizing opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
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