Tag: box office predictions

The Current War Box Office Prediction

Historical drama The Current War has experienced a very bumpy road on its journey to the big screen. The film in September 2017 at the Toronto Film Festival with Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon starring as Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse, respectively. Once looked at as an awards hopeful, it failed to electrify critics and it currently sports a dim 31% Rotten Tomatoes score. To add insult to injury, War was being distributed by The Weinstein Company and its co-founder’s legal issues put its release on hold.

That ends this Friday as Alfonso Gomez-Rejon’s effort is out with trailers calling it the “Director’s Cut” (an odd choice considering only reviewers and Toronto goers saw it two years back). Costars include Katherine Waterston, Tom Holland (who’s appeared as Spider-Man several times since making this), and Nicholas Hoult.

Simply put, I see no little anticipation here and there’s plenty of actual Oscar contenders out in limited or wide release for adults to attend. There’s no screen count yet and that could alter my estimate, but I believe this will lucky to even reach $2 million.

The Current War opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

For my Countdown prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/16/countdown-box-office-prediction/

For my Black and Blue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/17/black-and-blue-box-office-prediction/

Black and Blue Box Office Prediction

Moonlight Oscar nominee Naomie Harris is a rookie officer up against dirty cops in next weekend’s racially tinged action thriller Black and Blue. It comes from Deon Taylor, who directed this summer’s thriller The Intruder. Costars include Tyrese Gibson, Frank Grillo, and Reid Scott.

Late October is typically not a time period where new products post impressive debuts. Buzz is quiet and reviews are middling with a current 57% Rotten Tomatoes score. None of the cast members are much of a draw. Blue will be lucky to attract even the $7.6 million achieved last October by The Hate U Give. It had similar subject matter, but far better critical reaction.

I believe that means mid single digits is probable.

Black and Blue opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

For my Countdown prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/16/countdown-box-office-prediction/

For my The Current War prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/20/the-current-war-box-office-prediction/

Countdown Box Office Prediction

STX Entertainment is hoping that horror fans will spend some time in this Halloween season watching Countdown next weekend. The film (from director Justin Dec) centers on an app that predicts the timeline of people’s demises. The cast includes actors mostly known for TV work – Elizabeth Lail, Jordan Calloway, Talitha Bateman, Tichina Arnold, P.J. Byrne, Peter Facinelli, and Anne Winters.

The techno scare fest could manage to lure in some younger viewers, but many of them could be attending their own costume parties. The final frame of October is traditionally a sluggish one at the box office when newcomers don’t post large debuts. A studio like Blumhouse might be able to market this effectively, but this seems to be generating little heat.

I believe the numbers clock here will stop at just over double digits.

Countdown opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Black and Blue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/17/black-and-blue-box-office-prediction/

For my The Current War prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/20/the-current-war-box-office-prediction/

October 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two high profile sequels look to displace Joker from its two-week perch atop the charts. Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil with Angelina Jolie and Zombieland: Double Tap, reuniting Woody Harrelson, Emma Stone, Bill Murray, and others after a decade are the contenders. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/08/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/09/zombieland-double-tap-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Maleficent puts it considerably behind the $69 million earned by its 2014 predecessor. It can be dubious to bet against Disney, but I just don’t see the excitement for this particular follow-up. There’s also family competition from the second weekend of The Addams Family, which performed well out of the gate.

I have Double Tap coming in a million dollars behind 2009’s part one. This sequel does stand a shot at rising above my projection, but a solid third frame for Joker could eat into its potential.

Speaking of, Joker continued its record setting October pace with easily the largest sophomore haul of the month in history. If it drops in the mid to high 30s, I believe it edges Mistress for top billing.

Will Smith’s Gemini Man flopped and a drop of over 50% appears likely. That would place it in high single digits for fifth place.

Here’s my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Joker

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

3. Zombieland: Double Tap 

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

5. Gemini Man 

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (October 11-13)

As mentioned, Joker dominated the weekend, dipping a meager 41% for $55.8 million (towering over my $44.8 million forecast). That brings its tally to $193 million with over $300 million in its sights.

The animated version of The Addams Family was strong in second with $30.3 million, ahead of my $27 million take. With Halloween around the corner, expect sturdy holds throughout the month.

Gemini Man fell victim to mostly poor reviews in third with $20.5 million, a bit under my $22.8 million prediction. I expect both versions of Will Smith to fade quickly from theaters.

Abominable was fourth with $6 million (I said $7 million). It’s earned a so-so $47 million.

Downton Abbey rounded out the top five at $4.8 million compared to my $4.4 million projection for $82 million total.

Lastly, the panned Adam DeVine comedy Jexi languished in ninth with only $3.1 million (I went with $3.5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Zombieland: Double Tap Box Office Prediction

The quartet of Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone, and Abigail Breslin return after a decade to fight the undead in Zombieland: Double Tap next weekend. The comedic sequel find Ruben Fleischer back directing and Bill Murray back playing himself. Newcomers in part 2 include Rosario Dawson, Zoey Deutch, Luke Wilson, Thomas Middleditch, and Murray’s Ghostbusters costar Dan Aykroyd.

In October 2009, Zombieland helped usher in a resurgence for the living dead. With solid reviews, the pic took in $24.7 million for its start and closed at $75 million. The band is back together after all these years and the original’s reputation has stayed intact in the interim.

In 2019, we have seen numerous examples of sequels falling short of what came before. Double Tap could be immune from that, but I don’t see it outgrossing part 1 by any substantial margin. My hunch is that this comes in barely under the debut posted in 2009 as enough moviegoers will want to catch up with this gang.

Zombieland: Double Tap opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million

For my Maleficent: Mistress of Evil prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/08/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-box-office-prediction/

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Box Office Prediction

The cavalcade of 2019 Disney live-action reimaginings continues next weekend with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. The fantasy adventure is the sequel to 2014’s Maleficent, which focused on the villainous title character from Sleeping Beauty. Angelina Jolie returns along with Elle Fanning, Sam Riley, Imelda Staunton, Juno Temple, and Lesley Manville. Newcomers to the fold include Chiwetel Ejiofor, Ed Skrein, and Michelle Pfeiffer. Joachim Rønning (who recently co-directed the Mouse Factory’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales) takes over for Robert Stromberg.

When it comes to comps for how Mistress might perform, that’s a tricky calculation. Since the release of part 1 five summers ago, there’s been eight Disney updates of their classic animated material. The last two from this summer (Aladdin and The Lion King) were massive blockbusters based on beloved 1990s pics. This spring’s Dumbo, on the other hand, premiered with a so-so $45 million.

What about Maleficent itself? It opened just under $70 million with a $241 million eventual domestic haul. Yet five years is a fairly long break between sequels and some of the kiddos who attended could take a pass here. That brings up the example of Alice in Wonderland and Alice Through the Looking Glass. In 2010, Wonderland was the first significant reimagining in several years. It debuted to $116 million. Six years later, Looking Glass was a huge flop and earned in the mid 20s for its start. For a non Disney example, Snow White and the Huntsman kicked off with a robust $56 million in 2012. Four years, its follow-up The Huntsman: Winter’s War sputtered with a meager $19.4 million.

While I don’t anticipate the drop-off here will be quite as dramatic as the last two scenarios, I do feel Evil will come in markedly lower than its predecessor. I’ll predict low to mid 30s could be the range and that means around half of the bounty from half a decade ago.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil opening weekend prediction: $32.3 million

For my Zombieland: Double Tap prediction, click here:

Zombieland: Double Tap Box Office Prediction

October 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (10/10): My Joker estimate has risen from $39.8 million to $44.8 million. My   Addams Family estimate is up from $21.7 million to $27 million. My Gemini Man projection has dropped from $24.8 million to $22.8 million.

After a record setting October beginning, Joker looks to repeat in the top spot with more significant competition in its sophomore frame. The contenders for the throne are Ang Lee’s action thriller Gemini Man starring Will Smith and the animated version of The Addams Family. There’s also the Adam DeVine technological comedy Jexi, which will be lucky to hit the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/gemini-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/the-addams-family-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/

I am on the lower end of expectations with Gemini and Addams. My respective projections in the mid 20s and low 20s puts them in second and third positions behind Joaquin Phoenix’s villainous character.

So how will Joker fare in the follow-up weekend? Looking to some decent comps, both Logan and Venom fell 56% in their second outings. It seems reasonable that this will drop that much. I don’t see it falling the 68% of, say, Watchmen. I’ll say 58-60% is most feasible.

Abominable looks to place fourth and my $3.5 million forecast for Jexi puts it behind Downton Abbey in the five spot race.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Joker

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

2. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $27 million

3. Gemini Man

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

4. Abominable

Predicted Gross: $7 million

5. Downton Abbey

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (October 4-6)

Joker decimated the all-time October premiere record with a sizzling $96.2 million, rising above my $89.6 million projection. The Warner Bros stand-alone comic book pic was not affected by various controversies that preceded it and audience curiosity was clearly at a fever pitch.

Abominable dropped to second place with $11.9 million, in line with my $12.5 million prediction for a two-week tally of $37 million. That’s on the smaller end of the spectrum when it comes to Dreamworks Animation’s early autumn offerings.

Downton Abbey was third with $7.9 million (I said $8 million) for a bountiful $73 million haul thus far.

Hustlers was fourth with $6.3 million, just under my $6.7 million. The Jennifer Lopez hit is nearing the century mark at $91 million.

I incorrectly had It Chapter Two outside of the high five, but it was fifth with $5.3 million to float its gross to $202 million.

Renee Zellweger Oscar hopeful Judy expanded its theater count to over 1400 and was sixth with $4.5 million. I had it making a tad more at $5.9 million. Total is $9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jexi Box Office Prediction

From the directors of the Bad Moms pics, Jexi dials into theaters next weekend and is hoping for a decent reception. The comedy stars Adam DeVine as a loner obsessed with his phone. When he gets an upgrade that includes Rose Byrne voicing the title character/feature, life begins to improve until the artificially intelligent being develops an obsession with him. Costars include Alexandra Shipp, Michael Pena, Justin Hartley, and Wanda Sykes.

I have a hunch Jexi will have a tough time connecting with filmgoers. As far as its effectiveness via trailer and TV spots, I’m getting a bit of a Stuber vibe. That comedy with Kumail Nanjiani stalled over the summer with just an $8.2 million opening weekend. And one could argue Nanjiani has more drawing ability than DeVine.

Considering that, I’ll say this will be lucky to reach that number and won’t do so.

Jexi opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million

For my Gemini Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/gemini-man-box-office-prediction/

For my The Addams Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/the-addams-family-box-office-prediction/

The Addams Family Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/10): My estimate has risen from $21.7 million to $26.9 million

Snapping into theaters over a half century after the TV series and over a quarter century after the two film versions of that show, an animated version of The Addams Family debuts next weekend. Originally based on the Charles Addams comics, this iteration of the macabre clan sounds like something Tim Burton should have his fingerprints all over. And indeed, he was once attached to direct it. However, it’s Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan (who last made the R rated Seth Rogen/Evan Goldberg toon Sausage Party) shepherding the project. Voices of the family include Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloe Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Martin Short, Catherine O’Hara and Bette Midler, in addition to Allison Janney and Elsie Fisher.

Attempting to reach a kiddie audience pre Halloween (and a week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is out), it could be a somewhat tough sell for youngsters unfamiliar with the source material. That applies to the small screen 1960s version and the 1990s big screen one. In fact, this may not hit the $24 million achieved by 1991’s first live action Addams out of the gate (1993 sequel Addams Family Values didn’t fare as well).

I do envision this managing a debut of over $20 million, but perhaps not by much. That would likely put it in third place behind Joker and Gemini Man.

The Addams Family opening weekend prediction: $26.9 million

For my Gemini Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/gemini-man-box-office-prediction/

For my Jexi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/

Gemini Man Box Office Prediction

Arriving just behind his biggest domestic and worldwide grosser Aladdin and just ahead of his long in development sequel Bad Boys for Life, Will Smith headlines the sci fi action thriller Gemini Man next weekend. Itself a project that’s been in the planning for over two decades, double Oscar winner Ang Lee directs this tale of Smith’s aging hitman battling a youthful version of himself. Costars include Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Clive Owen, and Benedict Wong.

Most of the pic’s publicity has centered around its visual effects and de-aging process with the younger Fresh Prince. Yet the Rotten Tomatoes score is anything but fresh at a troubling 22%. That won’t help with word of mouth for Gemini and I believe that could rule out a start north of $30 million (where some projections are).

Despite his recent exposure in Disney’s billion dollar blockbuster and plenty of success for Smith in this genre, I’ll predict this gets off to a middling debut in the low to mid 20s range.

Gemini Man opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

For my The Addams Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/the-addams-family-box-office-prediction/

For my Jexi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/