John Cena follows the career path of fellow grappler Dwayne Johnson with the release of Playing with Fire next weekend. The family comedy casts him as a firefighter caring for rambunctious kids along with his coworkers. Andy Fickman directs and the cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, John Leguizamo, Brianna Hildebrand, Dennis Haysbert, and Judy Greer.
The Paramount release is essentially taking the studio’s Instant Family slot from last year. That pic scored a fairly decent $14.7 million for its start and legged out to a $67 million domestic gross. Cena hasn’t proven himself to be a player in this genre, however, and I’d say Mark Wahlberg’s star power is a bit brighter.
The best hope for Fire is that it develops small dips in subsequent weekends if word of mouth is solid, but I believe it’ll be fortunate to reach double digits in its premiere.
Playing with Fire opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
Known for his mega budget disaster flicks such as Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow, director Roland Emmerich tries his hand at a World War II epic next weekend with Midway. Budgeted at $75 million (pretty low considering the reported $165 million price tag for his 2016 dud sequel Independence Day: Resurgence), the cast includes Ed Skrein, Patrick Wilson, Luke Evans, Aaron Eckhart, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Dennis Quaid, and Woody Harrelson.
I do not expect this to be Emmerich’s Saving Private Ryan or Dunkirk. Those WWII efforts had critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. This does not. There will be competition for the adult and action crowd with the debut of Doctor Sleep and second frame for Terminator: Dark Fate.
IMAX elevated pricing could help a bit, but I doubt it. My suspicion is that Midway posts middling to poor numbers in the low teens for an inauspicious start.
The Yuletide rom com Last Christmas presents itself in theaters next weekend from Bridesmaids director Paul Feig. If you’re hoping it features the classic Wham! holiday track in its soundtrack, you’re in luck as it plays (as well as some unreleased songs by the late lead singer George Michael). Game of Thrones star Emilia Clarke and Henry Golding of Crazy Rich Asians fame headline. Costars include Golding’s Rich mother Michelle Yeoh and Emma Thompson (who co-wrote the script).
While its two leads don’t really have a track record opening a film, this should succeed in bringing in a female audience (and perhaps some fans of Mr. Michael). Even though the genres are different, this could premiere with similar numbers to Feig’s previous effort A Simple Favor ($16.1 million).
I’ll say that range is likely as Christmas hopes to leg out solidly in the weeks ahead.
Last Christmas opening weekend prediction: $16.9 million
Doctor Sleep hopes to shine at the box office next weekend. The horror pic is not just an adaptation of Stephen King’s 2013 novel, which is the legendary author’s sequel to his 1977 work The Shining. It also serves as a follow-up to Stanley Kubrick’s 1980 classic. Mike Flanagan, who’s adapted King before with Netflix’s Gerald’s Game, is behind the camera. Ewan McGregor stars as Dan Torrance, the adult version of the child that Jack Nicholson tormented almost 40 years ago. Costars include Rebecca Ferguson, Kyliegh Curran, Carl Lumbly, Bruce Greenwood, and Cliff Curtis.
There’s no doubt that the cinematic version of The Shining has cemented its status as a genre landmark (even though King himself is famously not a big fan). The author has praised this and early word of mouth based off screenings is positive.
That said, 39 years is a long time ago. Interestingly, there’s a comp to be considered with 2017’s Blade Runner 2049. That sequel was also following an early 80s picture with a sterling reputation. Yet it came in well below expectations with a $31.5 million domestic premiere. Horror viewers tend to skew young, so it’s a legitimate question as to their affinity for the 1980 predecessor.
With all that considered, I’ll predict the Doctor is good for a mid 20s showing. This might be appointment viewing for some, but I’m skeptical it reaches over $30 million.
Doctor Sleep opening weekend prediction: $24.8 million
The November box office kicks off with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature character back in theaters and three other newcomers vying for attention. In addition to Terminator: Dark Fate, we have the historical biopic Harriet, animated comedy Arctic Dogs, and Edward Norton’s period piece crime drama Motherless Brooklyn. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit that I don’t expect to place in the top five. Dogs comes from the upstart Entertainment Studios, which has no track record with family fare. My $4.5 million forecast reflects its lack of visibility among kiddos and their parents. Brooklyn was looked at as a potential awards contender before festival screenings and its mixed reaction killed that notion. Premiering in a smallish 1250 theaters, I’m projecting a meager $3.2 million.
There is little doubt that Dark Fate (reuniting the former California Governor with his Terminator 2: Judgment Day costars Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong) will top the charts, but its range of possibility is the real question mark. My high 30s estimate gives it a so-so start that outdoes 2015 predecessor Genisys.
It was a photo finish last weekend between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker. However, even though Arnold serves as more direct competition for the latter, I expect Joker will experience a lower decline than Evil and maintain its #2 standing for the third frame in a row.
Like Brooklyn, Harriet also lost its hoped for Oscar luster once reviews came out. My mid single digits projection gives it a slight edge in fourth over The Addams Family.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Terminator: Dark Fate
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
2. Joker
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. Harriet
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
5. The Addams Family
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (October 25-27)
It doesn’t get much closer than this as Disney edged out Warner Bros for supremacy with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil clinging to #1 at $19.3 million, just under my $20.4 million prediction. The underperforming sequel stands at $66 million.
The supremely over performing Joker was second with $19.2 million, just over my $18.6 million projection for a tally of $277 million.
The Addams Family held up well and placed third with $12 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $73 million.
Just behind in fourth and dropping hard in weekend #2 was Zombieland: Double Tap with $11.8 million. I went higher at $13.8 million. The two week earnings are $47 million.
The weekend’s highest newcomer was horror pic Countdown, rounding out the top five with $8.8 million (not hitting my $10.3 million take).
Black and Blue was sixth, premiering with $8.3 million. I didn’t give it enough credit with my $4.8 million estimate.
Finally, the long delayed The Current War was ninth with a dim $2.6 million. It did manage to build upon my $1.7 million projection.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… I’ll be back!
Once looked at as a potential Oscar contender, buzz for Harriet has significantly dwindled since its debut at the Toronto Film Festival back in September. I suspect this autobiographical tale of abolitionist Harriet Tubman will suffer at the box office as a result. Widows actress Cynthia Erivo stars in the title role with a supporting cast including Leslie Odom Jr., Joe Alwyn, and Janelle Monae. Kasi Lemmons directs.
Its premiere in Canada yielded mixed reviews and it currently stands at a middling 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture seems like a lost cause and Erivo (once looked at as a sure fire contender) may have a tough time making the cut for Best Actress.
Based on those factors, I foresee Harriet struggling to hit double digits for its start.
Harriet opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
Entertainment Studios is hoping that family audiences warm to their animated comedy Arctic Dogs next weekend. Budgeted at around $50 million, it risks being a costly flop. From director Aaron Woodley, Dogs voice cast includes Jeremy Renner (who’s been experiencing bad publicity involved with his personal life), Heidi Klum, James Franco, John Cleese, Omar Sy, Michael Madsen, Laurie Holden, Anjelica Huston, and Alec Baldwin (pulling double duty with new releases along with Motherless Brooklyn).
The pic marks the first animated effort from the relatively new studio, which has only found success with its 47 Meters Down shark tales. I suspect they won’t find much profitability with these talking animals.
Double digits seems like an impossibility here and it could struggle to reach $5 million.
Arctic Dogs opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (10/24): It’s been revealed today that the film is only slated for approximately 1,250 screens next weekend. Therefore, my estimate is dropping from $5.3 million to $3.2 million.
Nearly 20 years following his directorial debut Keeping the Faith, Edward Norton is back behind the camera with Motherless Brooklyn. The 1950s set pic casts Norton as a detective with Tourette’s syndrome in the crime drama. Costars include Bruce Willis, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Bobby Cannavale, Cherry Jones, Alec Baldwin, and Willem Dafoe.
Once looked at as a potential awards contender, Brooklyn was met with a mixed reaction following its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score currently is at 61%. Running nearly two and a half hours, the film hopes to bring in adult moviegoers looking for mature material.
That is unlikely to occur due to its lack of Oscar buzz among other titles that have it. I believe the Warner Bros release will struggle in the mid single digits for a forgettable start.
Motherless Brooklyn opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
Arnold Schwarzenegger is back for the fifth time in his signature role with Terminator: Dark Fate next weekend. This time around, there’s some other franchise favorites who’ve gone unseen since 1991’s landmark Terminator 2: Judgment Day. James Cameron shares story credit in what’s being called a direct sequel to the first follow up from 28 years ago (Fate hits theaters just over 35 years after the original). That means you shouldn’t have to keep up with the three subsequent series entries. Also returning are Linda Hamilton as Sarah Connor and Edward Furlong as John Connor (a role that’s since been filled by Nick Stahl, Christian Bale, and Jason Clarke). Tim Miller, maker of Deadpool, directs with a supporting cast including Mackenzie Davis, Natalia Reyes, and Gabriel Luna.
Early word of mouth suggests this might be the most solid Terminator flick since 1991 (even though that’s not really saying a whole lot). The franchise hit a low point just over four years ago with Genisys. It was the only sequel not to reach $100 million domestically with at $89 million overall and reviews and audience reaction were poor. The inclusion of some favorites should help some, but this could still suffer from franchise fatigue that we’ve witnessed several times already in 2019.
Using comps for a debut is a little tricky as this is the first sequel not to open on a holiday weekend. Judgment, 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, and Genisys all premiered over Independence Day frames. 2009’s Terminator: Salvation rolled out over Memorial Day. For the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of their long weekends, Machines holds the record with $44 million. I don’t believe Fate gets there. The low mark is Genisys with $27 million. I don’t think this falls that low.
My hunch is that mid to high 30s is the likeliest scenario for the Governator and his familiar friends.
Terminator: Dark Fate opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
For my Motherless Brooklyn prediction, click here:
The end of October at the box office looks to be a rather quiet one as holdovers should dominate. There are three newcomers to consider: techie horror pic Countdown, action thriller Black and Blue, and long delayed historical drama The Current War. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Let’s get Current out of the way first, shall we? Theater count is still uncertain and that might change my estimate, but my measly $1.7 million prediction leaves the former Weinstein Company property well outside of the top five.
Same goes for Blue with my $4.8 million projection as I don’t see much buzz for it either. Countdown should have no trouble being the largest grossing newcomer, but my barely double digits forecast has it rounding out the top five.
I whiffed on predicting that Joker would hold onto the top position for the third frame in a row over Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. While Disney claimed the #1 spot, it did so in an unimpressive fashion (more on that below). I do think Evil and Joker will be closer this weekend, but I’ll give Angelina a slight edge over Joaquin this time around.
Zombieland should stay third with The Addams Family in fourth. Due to the upcoming Halloween frame, the latter may experience the smallest decline of the bunch.
And with that, my vision of the weekend ahead:
1. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
2. Joker
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Zombieland: Double Tap
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. The Addams Family
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. Countdown
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
Box Office Results (October 18-20)
Disney’s streak of live action renderings of their animated catalog topping the charts didn’t end this weekend as Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was first with results that weren’t magical. It grossed $36.9 million and while that did exceed my $32.3 million prediction, that’s way under the $69 million achieved by its 2014 predecessor.
Joker slipped to second and lost more volume than I anticipated with $29.2 million compared to my $34.2 million forecast. It’s up to an astonishing $247 million and is already #9 on the list of biggest R rated earners.
Zombieland: Double Tap matched most expectations in third with $26.8 million, shooting past my $23.7 million projection. That’s a slight improvement over the near $25 million that its 2009 predecessor made, but not really when accounting for inflation.
The Addams Family was fourth with $16.3 million (I said $18.4 million) for a two-week tally of $57 million.
Will Smith’s flop Gemini Man was fifth and tumbled nearly 60% in its sophomore frame to $8.3 million, just below my $9.4 million take. Total is $36 million.
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