Box Office Predictions: August 22-24

This weekend three new pictures will try to unseat Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy, which have held the 1-2 positions for the past two weeks. They are Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, following its predecessor by nearly a decade, YA pic If I Stay, and sports drama When the Game Stands Tall. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

I believe Sin City will do well enough to top the charts and don’t expect much out of Stay or Game, which I have opening at four and five. If either of those newbies go below my estimates, it may allow holdovers Let’s Be Cops or The Expendables 3 to remain in the top five. However, my projections do not reflect that. I’m also predicting that Guardians will remain at the #2 spot due to a lower percentage drop than Turtles.

And with that – my top five estimates for the weekend:

1. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

5. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

As predicted, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy remained atop the charts. TMNT stayed first for its second weekend with $28.5 million, holding up slightly better than my $25.7M estimate. The successful franchise reboot has earned $117 million so far and should reach close to $175M. Guardians took in $25.1 million in weekend 3, barely topping my $24.1M projection. The Marvel juggernaut stands at $222 million and is on its way to be 2014’s highest grosser… until Mockingjay – Part 1 is unleashed.

The poorly reviewed comedy Let’s Be Cops got off to a decent start with $17.8 million over the traditional weekend and $26.2 million since its Wednesday debut. Its Friday to Sunday take was right in line with my $17.7M prediction while its five-day was higher than my $23.4M guesstimate. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, expect Cops to fade quickly though.

Bad box office news keeps on coming for Sylvester Stallone as The Expendables 3 bombed with only $15.8 million, below my $21.5M prediction. The all-star action franchise has clearly lost its steam and a fourth entry seems doubtful at this juncture.

The YA adaption The Giver with Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep had a lackluster result with $12.3 million – though it did exceed my $11M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!

When the Game Stands Tall Box Office Prediction

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall opens Friday, in conjunction with football season starting up. Inspired by a true story, the TriStar release focuses on a high school’s team 151 game winning streak and stars Jim Caviezel, Laura Dern, and Michael Chiklis. Thomas Carter, who directed one successful similar genre pic Coach Carter with Samuel L. Jackson, is behind the camera.

Earlier this summer, another sports pic Million Dollar Arm starring Jon Hamm, stumbled out of the gate with only a $10.5 million opening. That picture had Disney behind it and a more recognizable star. If Arm performed badly, it’s tough to see how this breaks through with audiences. Unless the timing of its release helps, Tall is probably primed for a subpar opening. There’s also the issue of many high school football fans might, you know, actually be watching a high school football game this Friday night.

When the Game Stands Tall opening weekend prediction: $9 million

For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

For my If I Stay prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/if-i-stay-box-office-prediction/

If I Stay Box Office Prediction

Summit Entertainment is the studio de jour for young adult flicks and they’ve got another one this Friday with If I Stay, based on the novel by Gayle Forman. The film centers on a teen played by Chloe Grace Moritz of Kick Ass fame dealing with love and loss and is directed by R.J. Cutler, who seems a bit out of his element because he’s known more for making political documentaries.

If I Stay would love to follow in the footsteps of an earlier pic this summer, The Fault in Our Stars. That seems unlikely to occur as it’s been curiously under marketed and the late summer release is often somewhat of a dumping ground for studios. If Stay can debut above $15 million, the studio should consider that a success. I wonder if it will even manage double digits. My prediction is that it will get there, but not by much and my estimate puts it in the same range as another YA movie, The Giver, from this past weekend.

If I Stay opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

For my When the Game Stands Tall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/when-the-game-stands-tall-box-office-prediction/

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For Box Office Prediction

Nearly ten years after its predecessor performed solidly at the box office, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For makes it theatrical debut Friday. Original directors Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller are back behind the camera, based on Miller’s work from his acclaimed graphic novel. Several stars of the 2005 pic return – including Jessica Alba, Bruce Willis, Rosario Dawson, Mickey Rourke, Powers Boothe and Jaime King. Newcomers to the sequel include Joseph Gordon Levitt, Josh Brolin, Lady Gaga, Dennis Haysbert, Christopher Lloyd, Ray Liotta, and Jeremy Piven.

It was the spring of 2005 when Sin City did great business of the gate domestically with $29 million. However, it would suffer large declines in subsequent weekends and its final gross was a respectable $74 million. The big question is whether too much time has passed for audiences to really be clamoring for a sequel?

I have my doubts. The original was mostly well-received and there will be some who are excited to see it (myself included). However, the near decade long wait makes it unlikely that Dame will approach the performance of the first. I would be surprised if it exceeds $25 million in its debut and believe a high teens to low 20s debut is more likely.

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million

For my If I Stay prediction, click here:

If I Stay Box Office Prediction

For my When the Game Stands Tall prediction, click here:

When the Game Stands Tall Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: August 15-17

This weekend – three new titles (The Expendables 3, Let’s Be Cops, The Giver) open and attempt to compete with the second weekend of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and third weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-expendables-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/lets-be-cops-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-giver-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, there could be a legitimate four-way race for the #1 spot – something that’s extremely rare. Ninja Turtles opened WAY beyond expectations (more on that below) yet its mediocre B Cinemascore likely means a big drop in its sophomore frame. Guardians should hold up better, creating a tight race with Turtles. The wild cards are the third Expendables and Let’s Be Cops. Either one could easily exceed my expectations and debut at #1. However, my predictions reflect a belief that Turtles barely manages to outdo Galaxy with Expendables and Cops third and fourth. The badly marketed The Giver should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the mid-August top five:

1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. The Expendables 3

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million

4. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (opens Wednesday: $23.4 million predicted for five-day debut)

5. The Giver

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Box office prognosticators like me were shell shocked this weekend by the terrific performance of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which posted the fourth largest August opening ever with $65.5 million, way beyond my $28.2M projection. A sequel was greenlit immediately and a new Turtle franchise is born. I was clearly way off on believing the pizza-loving amphibians popularity had waned. Whoops.

Guardians of the Galaxy held up well in weekend #2 with $42.1 million, in line with my $42.9M prediction. The Marvel blockbuster has amassed a fantastic $176M in ten days.

Opening decently in third was disaster flick Into the Storm with $17.3 million, ahead of my $13.6M estimate. Look for it to fall pretty far in its second weekend, though. The Helen Mirren comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey debuted fourth with $10.9 million, on pace with my $10.7M projection. Holdover Lucy rounded out the top five with $9.4 million, just ahead of my $8.1M prediction. Newcomer Step Up: All In kept the dance franchise’s earnings plummeting with only $6.4 million, below my $8.4M estimate. Finally, the James Brown biopic Get On Up continues its highly disappointing run. I believed it wouldn’t fall much in weekend two, but it certainly did. Up was down 62% with $5.1 million, well below my generous $8.8M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks!

The Giver Box Office Prediction

The Giver opens Friday and the youth oriented science fiction flick poses a serious question: will audiences turn out for it and who is the intended audience? The Weinstein Company seems to have little faith in the project and its marketing campaign has been quite underwhelming. Based on a 1993 Lois Lowry novel, the pic does have some serious talent behind it. The adult stars are Oscar winners Jeff Bridges (who coproduced) and Meryl Streep, with Katie Holmes and singer Taylor Swift in supporting roles. Phillip Noyce, director of Patriot Games and Salt, is behind the camera.

Aside from its subdued marketing, other challenges face The Giver. If it’s going for the youth audience, there’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy to contend with. The film’s budget is a meager $30 million and yet it still may struggle to recoup that cost domestically. The Giver could struggle to reach double digits, but I’ll predict it does manage that unimpressive benchmark for what’ll likely be a fifth place opening next weekend.

The Giver opening weekend prediction: $11 million

For my The Expendables 3 prediction, click here:

The Expendables 3 Box Office Prediction

For my Let’s Be Cops prediction, click here:

Let’s Be Cops Box Office Prediction

Let’s Be Cops Box Office Prediction

Last summer, the raunchy comedy We’re the Millers was a breakout August hit which opened on a Wednesday. The Jennifer Aniston/Jason Sudeikis pic took in $37 million over its five-day frame and $26 million from Friday to Sunday, on its way to grossing over $150M domestically. This Friday, Let’s Be Cops with Jake Johnson and Damon Wayans, Jr. will attempt the same feat.

While I believe Cops could be poised for a solid debut, it seems to me that Millers territory is unlikely. Costarring Andy Garcia and Rob Riggle, Cops has received a robust marketing campaign from Fox and the trailers and TV spots are pretty funny. It’s almost been two months since the last successful comedy, 22 Jump Street, so audiences could be primed for laughs. There’s no reviews yet and that could be somewhat of a factor – seeing that negative critical reaction helped sink last month’s Sex Tape. In addition, unlike Millers, none of the stars of Cops have any sort of box office track record.

That said, the dearth of comedies out now should lead this to a three day opening in the high teens and a possible mid 20s five day haul.

Let’s Be Cops opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $23.4 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Expendables 3, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-expendables-3-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Giver, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-giver-box-office-prediction/

The Expendables 3 Box Office Prediction

Sylvester Stallone and his geriatric all-star group of action icons are back once again in The Expendables 3, out Friday. This franchise has been a consistent one this decade with the first and second installments being released on the same mid-August weekend in 2010 and 2012. However, there is a discouraging trend with the series. While the original took in $34 million opening weekend with an overall $103M domestic haul, the follow-up couldn’t keep pace. The Expendables 2 made $28 million out of the gate with a final $85M gross. Stallone hasn’t seen any of his other recent projects perform well and it’s easy to see where #3 could continue the downward performance of the franchise.

It must be said that Stallone’s ability to get genre stars on board is impressive. The Expendables 3 features Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mel Gibson, Harrison Ford, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Wesley Snipes, Antonio Banderas, Dolph Lundgren, Terry Crews, Randy Couture, and Kelsey Grammer. However, I don’t feel all that star power will translate to a very impressive debut. An opening on par with the last entry’s $28M seems unlikely, though I think the series has just enough juice (not a steroid reference) to get it past $20M.

The Expendables 3 opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million

For my Let’s Be Cops prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/lets-be-cops-box-office-prediction/

For my The Giver prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-giver-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 8-10

This Friday, four new titles will try to knock massive hit Guardians of the Galaxy from its perch atop the box office. They are the franchise reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, found footage disaster flick Into the Storm, the Helen Mirren led comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey, and dance competition sequel Step Up: All In. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/into-the-storm-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/the-hundred-foot-journey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/step-up-all-in-box-office-prediction/

The only newbie with a fair shot of challenging Guardians would seem to be Turtles. However, I am going on the low end of expectations for it. Some have it grossing above $30 million and even closer to $40M, but I believe excitement isn’t quite that high and a robust second weekend for Guardians may hurt it.

Into the Storm looks like a relative flop to me, though some have it outpacing my estimate. The Hundred-Foot Journey should barely top double digits while diminishing results for each successive Step Up flick could hurt All In.

As for holdovers, Guardians got off to a truly spectacular start (more on that below). It will likely fall in the same range as other Marvel hits in their sophomore weekends. In its third weekend, Luc Besson’s Lucy should continue to lose over half its audience. The James Brown biopic Get On Up got off to a disappointing start, but with its A Cinemascore grade, I see it having the smallest decline in its second weekend.

And with that – we’ll do a Top Seven for my projections this weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $42.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

3. Into the Storm

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. The Hundred-Foot Journey

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

5. Get On Up

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Step Up: All In

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

7. Lucy

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

As previously mentioned, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy got off to an astonishingly terrific run with $94.3 million. The very well-reviewed pic boasted the third highest opening of 2014, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It opened nearly $20M above my $74.6M prediction. Guardians may well be in a position to eventually become the summer’s largest grosser. Simply put, the Marvel gravy train keeps chugging along…

Lucy dropped to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore weekend, above my $16.6M projection. The Scarlett Johannson actioner has taken in $79M so far and should certainly top $100M domestically.

Get On Up had a lackluster premiere with $13.5 million, way below my $24.9M estimate. It received solid reviews, especially for star Chadwick Boseman, yet it failed to bring in its intended adult audience.

Hercules dropped to fourth in weekend #2 with $11 million, below my $13M prediction. The Rock’s flick has earned $52 million and should top out around $75M.

In fifth was Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in its fourth weekend with $8.6 million, on target with my $8.5M estimate. Dawn has made $189M and should get to around $215M overall.

And that’s all for now, friends!

Step Up: All In Box Office Prediction

While I certainly won’t purport to be an expert in the Step Up film franchise, I can read box office numbers. And there is no doubt that this eight year old series of dance flicks has been on a downward trajectory. Step Up: All In marks the fifth (yes, fifth) entry in the boogie down competition pictures. Each has grossed less than the previous installment.

The 2006 original opened to $20M on its way to a $65M domestic gross. Its 2008 follow-up Step Up 2 the Streets premiered to $18M with an eventual $58M haul. The third pic in 2010 – Step Up 3-D opened to $15M with a $42M overall take. And All In‘s 2012 predecessor Step Up Revolution took in $11M out of the gate with a final gross of $35M.

I see no compelling reason why All In won’t carry on the trend of diminished earnings. I’ll even predict the fifth pic will be the first that fails to debut in double digits, though it should come fairly close.

Step Up: All In opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million