20th Century Fox is putting its faith in The Maze Runner, out Friday. The YA pic, based on a bestselling 2009 novel by James Dashner, is looking to appeal to the Hunger Games/Divergent crowd and the studio has already began pre-production on a sequel.
I’m not so sure the sci-fi flick will reach the numbers that Fox is hoping for. However, there is a significant bright side: the film only cost a reported $30 million to produce and it’ll certainly sail well past that in its domestic run alone. Some prognosticators have it grossing its budget in the first weekend, but I’m not willing to go that far. The book is well-known, though not to the level of Hunger Games or Divergent. The latter pic grossed a terrific $54 million earlier this year and that seems out of the question here.
The Maze Runner‘s trailers and TV spots might make it look like a poor man’s Hunger Games to those not familiar with the source material. Still, I’ll predict it debuts north of $25M for what should be a #1 opening, unless Liam Neeson’s A Walk Among the Tombstones eclipses it.
The Maze Runner opening weekend prediction: $26.1 million
For my prediction on A Walk Among the Tombstones, click here:
Liam Neeson is back in vengeance mode in A Walk Among the Tombstones, out Friday. The actor has surprisingly turned into a major action star over the past few years since the unexpected success of Taken in 2008. Since then, all of Neeson’s genre pics has debuted to around $20 million or over. His previous outing, this February’s Non-Stop, opened to $28 million on its way to an impressive $91M domestic haul.
Tombstones finds Neeson as a private investigator searching for a kidnapped woman in New York City. Sounds right up his alley, doesn’t it? The picture is directed by Scott Frank in his directorial debut and he’s best known as a screenwriter for films such as Out of Sight and Minority Report. If Tombstones reaches the $28M gross of Neeson’s predecessor, it certainly wouldn’t shock me.
However, my gut tells me a premiere in the range of 2011’s Unknown seems more likely. That movie opened to nearly $22M and that seems about right for this one.
A Walk Among the Tombstones opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
The month long reign of the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ruling the top two spots at the box office should come to an end this weekend with two new releases: family sequel Dolphin Tale 2 and thriller No Good Deed. You can review my detailed posts on each of them here:
I’ll give Dolphin Tale 2 the edge to top the charts, but only because it’s scheduled to open on approximately 1500 more screens than Deed, which still has an outside shot at #1. Holdovers Guardians, Turtles, and Let’s Be Cops should round out the top five in a rather lackluster weekend before heavy hitters such as A Walk Among the Tombstones, The Equalizer, and Gone Girl arrive soon.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Dolphin Tale 2
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. No Good Deed
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (September 5-7)
In what was the weakest box office frame in 13 years, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy was #1 with $10.3 million, right in line with my $10.9M projection. The superhero megahit has amassed $294 million and should blast past $300M this week.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was second with $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.6M estimate. It’s earned an impressive $174M so far and should top out around $190M.
Sleeper comedy hit Let’s Be Cops was third with my $5.5 million, above my $4.5M projection. Its total stands at $66M.
YA romance If I Stay was fourth as it also made $5.5 million, right in line with my $5.3M prediction and its haul is at an OK $39M.
Pierce Brosnan’s dud The November Man rounded out the top five with $4.3 million in weekend two, once again on pace with my $4.1M estimate. Its two week total is a weak $17M and it might reach $30M total domestically.
Finally, the faith based musical drama The Identical (the weekend’s only newbie) tanked with only $1.5 million for a pathetic 12th place debut, under my generous $3.9M projection.
Three years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Dolphin Tale 2 swims into theaters this Friday and will attempt a #1 opening. It’s got a very good shot. Actor turned director Charles Martin Smith is behind the camera once again and stars of Dolphin Tale Harry Connick Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman all return.
In September of 2011, the original debuted to $19.1 million on its way to a $72 million domestic gross. Those earnings were enough for Warner Bros. to green light a sequel. The big question is whether or not Dolphin Tale 2 grosses more than its predecessor and on that one, I’m skeptical. I simply don’t believe the first is beloved enough for audiences to flock to it. That being said, Dolphin Tale 2 should earn enough to get it to the #1 spot in a currently weak marketplace.
Dolphin Tale 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson star in the thriller No Good Deed, out Friday. It’s one of two pics (along with Dolphin Tale 2) attempting to interrupt the box office reign of Guardians of the Galaxy.
Deed puts Elba in the role of a stranger terrorizing Henson and her family. The film could succeed in bringing in a female audience and will attempt to cater to the same crowd that made Halle Berry’s The Call an unexpected hit last year. That film seems like a decent comparison to Deed. In March 2013, The Call debuted to a solid $17 million. I would expect No Good Deed won’t quite reach that number, due to the fact that it’s scheduled to open on approximately 500 less screens. Nevertheless I anticipate a decent opening for this.
No Good Deed opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
The first weekend of September is practically assured to be quite a tepid one at the box office as only one (low profile) release is being released, the faith based musical drama The Identical. For my detailed prediction post on it, click here:
That leaves summer holdovers to likely populate the top five once again, with superhero teams Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles continuing to hold the top spots. Not much more to say this week as it will be a boring movie weekend before some higher profile fall releases get underway soon.
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. The November Man
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
That would leave newbie The Identical with a predicted seventh place debut, just behind As Above/So Below.
Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)
As expected, the Labor Day weekend was a relatively quiet one as Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first with a four day haul of $22.9 million, just above my $21.1M projection. The Marvel phenomenon and summer 2014’s biggest grosser has amassed $281 million so far and should soon surpass $300M.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was again second with $15.6 million, below my generous $19.3M estimate. The reboot stands at an impressive $166M.
In its sophomore weekend, If I Stay was third with $11.7 million, below my once again generous $17.2M prediction. Its two week total is $32 million and it should finish out with less than $50M.
Fourth place belonged to Let’s Be Cops in its third weekend with $10.3 million, in line with my $11.4M estimate. The comedy has taken in $59M at press time and should reach $70M plus.
Opening in fifth was horror flick As Above/So Below with an unimpressive $10.2 million, just below my $11.8M projection. Below continued the 2014 trend of horror pics underwhelming, but its studio can take solace in that it only cost $5M to make.
The Pierce Brosnan spy film The November Man debuted just behind it with $10.1 million and $11.7 million since its Wednesday debut. It outdid my four day projection of $8.1M but its six day total was right in line with my $11M estimate. Tepid reviews didn’t help it.
Finally, sports drama When the Game Stands Tall was seventh in weekend #2 with $8.1 million, below my $9.8M projection. Its two week total stands at $18M and it’ll peter out at around $35 million at best.
The weekend after Labor Day is often the slowest box office frame of the entire year and 2014 stands an excellent chance at keeping that tradition going. There is only one new release opening wide Friday and it’s not a very high profile one – The Identical, a musical drama that will attempt to bring in faith-based audiences. I’m highly skeptical that it will. The decades spanning period piece imagines that Elvis Presley’s identical twin does not die during childbirth and grows up unaware of his famous lineage while struggling to forge his own music career.
The Identical has some recognizable faces in supporting roles, including Ashley Judd, Ray Liotta, and Joe Pantoliano. Real life Elvis impersonator Blake Rayne is in the title role. Marketing for the pic has seemed minimal and it opens on a low numbers of screens (approximately 1450). Being the only newbie in town next weekend, it seems destined for a bad opening well behind holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
The Identical opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.
And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)
3. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)
4. As Above, So Below
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
5. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)
6. When the Game Stands Tall
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)
7. The November Man
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.
Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.
Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.
The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.
Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.
The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.
And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!
Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.
Pierce Brosnan is back in spy mode with The November Man, which debuts Wednesday before the long Labor Day weekend. It seems unlikely that this will approach anywhere near the numbers Brosnan enjoyed with his more known spy character, James Bond.
The star reunites with his Dante’s Peak director Roger Donaldson and costars with Olga Kurlylenko, who appeared alongside Daniel Craig’s 007 in Quantum of Solace. The studio is hoping that audiences are primed to see Pierce return to the kind of role people most identify him with, but there are troubling signs. Reviews have been bad and The November Man currently stands at only 17% on Rotten Tomatoes. This should contribute to negative word of mouth.
As I see it, the pic should struggle to make double digits in its six day rollout and The November Man should fade fast and be available for home viewing by its title month.
The November Man opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)
It’s been a shaky year, to say the least, for horror flicks and this Labor Day weekend – the found footage pic As Above, So Below will attempt to reverse that trend. The film showcases American tourists exploring the catacombs in Paris with haunting results. There have yet to be many reviews, but the ones available don’t inspire much confidence.
As Above, So Below appears unlikely to inject some much needed energy to horror genre. Still, it should manage a double digit debut – especially over the four-day holiday weekend. I don’t believe, however, that Below will end up opening above what the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles manage to gross next weekend.
As Above, So Below opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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