Box Office Predictions: September 26-28

Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:

I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Equalizer

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million

2. The Boxtrolls

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. A Walk Among the Tombstones

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. This Is Where I Leave You

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (September 19-21)

The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened  #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.

Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.

The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.

Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.

Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.

That’s all for now, folks!

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