Tag: box office predictions

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Studios gravy train keeps on rolling this Friday with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 original and most importantly – the continuation of The Avengers saga that broke box office records in 2012. Chris Evans returns as the title character alongside Scarlett Johannson as Black Widow and Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury with Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Shaw, and Robert Redford (!) joining the regulars.

Buzz on The Winter Soldier is red hot and it stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Marvel films have opened at significant bumps following The Avengers and the evidence is clear. The pre-Avengers sequel Iron Man 2 opened to $128 million while the post-Avengers entry Iron Man 3 premiered to $174 million. The pre-Avengers original Thor debuted to $65 million while its post-Avengers follow-up Thor: The Dark World came in at $85 million. Like the first Thor, the original Captain America opened at $65 million.

So it stands to reason that the sequel would make the $85 million that the second Thor achieved, right? Well… yeah, pretty much! An opening in that range seems like a safe bet. It could overachieve and approach $100 million, but I’m going by the numbers we have on file and predicting it’ll just outpace the Thor sequel.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opening weekend prediction: $86.3 million

Box Office Predictions: March 28-30

Lots of activity at the box office this weekend as Darren Aronofsky’s highly publicized Biblical epic Noah and the Arnold Schwarzenegger action pic Sabotage make their way into multiplexes. We’ll also have the expansion of Wes Anderson’s red hot The Grand Budapest Hotel into theaters and it could certainly crack the top five. You can my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/23/noah-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/23/sabotage-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Noah should easily nab the top spot. Last weekend’s champ Divergent got off to a very respectable debut for a new franchise yet it should understandably take a rather large dip in its sophomore weekend. Muppets Most Wanted debuted with less than expected results and is likely to fall in the 40s range.

Expanding to 800 theaters, The Grand Budapest Hotel may well compete with Arnold’s Sabotage for the four spot and it could even nab #3. As for Sabotage, I expect it to suffer the same fate as Schwarzenegger’s last two features – The Last Stand and Escape Plan – which both failed to crack double digits in their premieres.

Meanwhile, the Christian themed God’s Not Dead surprised prognosticators such as myself with a much better than expected $9.2 million opening over the weekend. Some believe it could post similar numbers this weekend so it could be in the top five mix as well.

And with that – here’s my estimates for the top six this weekend:

1. Noah

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

2. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $23 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Sabotage

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. God’s Not Dead

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 16%)

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

I was incorrect in buying into the theory that Divergent would post numbers similar to the original Twilight. The YA flick still got off to a solid start with $54.6 million – even though it was far below my generous $68.4M prediction. Muppets Most Wanted disappointed in its opening with a so-so $17 million, under my $22.8M estimate. Kermit and company couldn’t come close to comparing to their $29 million debut two and a half years ago with that comeback film. Mr. Peabody and Sherman dropped to #3 in its third weekend with $11.8 million, a bit below my $12.9M projection. As mentioned before, God’s Not Dead surprised everyone with a $9.2 million take and I incorrectly had it outside the top five, not even making a prediction on it. 300: Rise of an Empire slid to fifth with $8.5 million, in line with my $8.8M estimate. I had Need for Speed at fifth but it was sixth with $7.9 million – in range with my $7.2M guesstimate.

That’s all for now folks!

Sabotage Box Office Prediction

Arnold Schwarzenegger is hoping that the third time around is the charm for a comeback attempt with Sabotage, opening Friday. The crime thriller does have some talent behind it in the form of End of Watch director David Ayer. Yet its biggest hindrance could be Ah-nuld himself.

Since taking a decade long break to become Governor of California and get involved in illegitimate child/nanny scandals, Schwarzenegger hasn’t found much luck in returning to the big screen. In early 2013, The Last Stand bombed with only a $6.2 million debut. In the fall, his teaming with Sylvester Stallone Escape Plan also flopped with a weak $9.8 million opening.

I have serious doubts that Sabotage has done anything that will break Arnold’s box office doldrums. The marketing campaign really doesn’t make it look like anything other than your average action cop flick. Like his two previous efforts, Sabotage could struggle to reach double digits and I’m predicting it won’t.

Sabotage opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million

For my Noah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/23/noah-box-office-prediction/

Noah Box Office Prediction

Darren Aronofsky’s Noah sails into theaters next weekend with some big question marks as to how it will perform stateside. It’s gotten off to a solid start internationally, but its faithfulness/unfaithfulness to the Biblical source material has received plenty of ink.

Russell Crowe stars as the title character with a supporting cast featuring his Beautiful Mind costar Jennifer Connelly, Emma Watson, and Anthony Hopkins. My estimate would put Noah in the #1 spot and I believe it will capture a good portion of the Christian audience who will be curious to watch. Whether they like how Black Swan director Aronofsky interprets the material is something that’ll be answered soon enough. If Son of God, which was basically a shortened version of an already aired miniseries, could debut at $25 million in February – Noah should surpass that and then some.

Noah opening weekend prediction: $39.7 million

For my Sabotage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/23/sabotage-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: March 21-23

Two new entries should take the two top spots at the box office this weekend as Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/divergent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/muppets-most-wanted-box-office-prediction/

Prognosticators have Divergent debuting anywhere from $50 million to over the $70 million that Twilight achieved in 2008. My estimate reflects going towards the higher end of the scale though I believe it’ll reach just short of Twilight heights.

Muppets Most Wanted could debut with $30 million or more, but my prediction reflects a belief that it will open below its predecessor from 2011.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Mr. Peabody and Sherman may fall more in its third weekend than its second due to Kermit and company. 300: Rise of an Empire and Need for Speed should suffer healthy falls in their third and second weekends, respectively.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $68.4 million

2. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Mr. Peabody and Sherman

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Need for Speed

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results: March 14-16

The story of the weekend was the lackluster openings of both new films – Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club. Their failure to reach their intended audiences allowed Mr. Peabody and Sherman to rise to the top in its second weekend with $21.8 million, slightly ahead of my $20.4M projection.

300: Rise of an Empire fell to second in its sophomore frame with $19.2 million – in line with my $18.8M estimate.

Need for Speed disappointed bringing in a weak $17.8 million, well below my $25.3M estimate. The film proved one more example of a popular video game failing to generate audience excitement.

Non-Stop was fourth with $10.6 million – holding up stronger than my $8.2 million prediction.

In fifth with disastrous results was Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, which represented the star’s worst debut ever for a picture he directed. It earned only $8 million, far below my $17.6M estimate. While Perry is finding success on the OWN Network with his television programs, his film career is clearly losing its luster.

As always, I’ll have full results Monday when the final numbers roll in. Stay tuned!

Muppets Most Wanted Box Office Prediction

Kermit, Missy Piggy and company are back nearly two and a half years following their well-received return in The Muppets with Muppets Most Wanted, out Friday. Over the Thanksgiving holiday in 2011, The Muppets took in $29 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $41 million over the five day holiday frame. The pic went on to gross a respectable $88 million.

Director James Bobin and cowriter Nicholas Stoller are back though original stars Jason Segel and Amy Adams do not return. Most Wanted features Ricky Gervais, Tina Fey, and Ty Burrell, but what really matters is our favorite Muppets are all returning. Some prognosticators are pegging this to gross around $30 million or more this weekend. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, but I have a gut feeling that the franchise Jim Henson built will have underwhelming results this time around.

Family audiences have had no shortage of quality flicks to enjoy recently – including blockbusters Frozen, The LEGO Movie, and the current #1 Mr. Peabody and Sherman. Entering its third weekend, Peabody should still post solid numbers and could take a bite out of the Muppet pie. Teenagers will likely be distracted by Divergent, which is primed for a big opening.

My prediction reflects a belief that Muppets Most Wanted will fall under what its predecessor did for only a so-so debut.

Muppets Most Wanted opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

For my Divergent prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/divergent-box-office-prediction/

Divergent Box Office Prediction

More than a year after their financial juggernaut Twilight franchise wrapped up, Summit Entertainment moves on with their next series based on wildly popular YA novels with Divergent, opening Friday. Based on Veronica Roth’s books, the futuristic sci-fi actioner comes with a healthy $80 million budget and high expectations from the studio. Two sequels have already been greenlit with Insurgent debuting a year from now.

Headlined by Shailene Woodley and Theo James, Divergent also features a supporting cast that includes Shailene’s Spectacular Now costar Miles Teller and Oscar winner Kate Winslet. The box office prospects for Divergent are a bit murky. It’s highly unlikely to reach Hunger Games types of numbers. It also hopes to avoid the disappointing performances of other YA movies like The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones or Beautiful Creatures from last year.

Recent speculation has focused on Divergent opening in range with the first Twilight, which earned $69.6 million in its premiere. This seems like reasonable territory to me. The chances of Divergent getting past $75M out of the gate are within reach. However, I’ll predict it falls just under what Bella, Edward, and company achieved in their debut.

Divergent opening weekend prediction: $68.4 million

For my Muppets Most Wanted prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/muppets-most-wanted-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: March 14-16

It’s not often that there are four pictures that have real shots at being #1 in a weekend, but we have one such weekend this time around. This list includes Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club in their debut frames and 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman in their sophomore weekends.

You can find my individual prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/need-for-speed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/tyler-perrys-the-single-moms-club-box-office-prediction/

I believe Need for Speed will appeal to enough of the Fast and Furious crowd to get it to the top while Single Moms Club will continue the trend of Perry flicks coming in slightly below expectations. Still either one could over or under perform and make it a race for number one.

Add to that the fact that Mr. Peabody and Sherman is likely to have a fairly small drop and it could be a real barnburner of a race. And there’s last weekend’s #1 300: Rise of an Empire. While I expect the sequel to fall pretty hard in weekend #2, if it doesn’t – it too could contend for the top spot. Non-Stop, in its third frame, should round out the top five.

And with that, here’s my predictions for the how it all shakes out:

1. Need for Speed

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million

2. Mr. Peabody and Sherman

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)

4. Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

5. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

Box Office Results (March 7-9)

While I did pretty well on numbers 2-5 for the weekend, I vastly underestimated the staying power of the 300 franchise with its sequel Rise of an Empire. The film took in a healthy $45 million, well above my $31.1M projection. While it was miles away from the original’s $70 million premiere, this still exceeded most prognosticator’s expectations.

The animated Mr. Peabody and Sherman opened in second with $32.2 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. This was a mid-level opening for an animated feature, but it should have solid legs in the weeks ahead.

Non-Stop took third in weekend #2 with $15.8 million – in line with $15.5M prediction while The LEGO Movie was fourth with $10.9 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Rounding out the top five was Son of God, which fell hard in its second weekend to $10.3 million, under my $11.9M prediction.

As always, I’ll have final results for this coming weekend on Monday. Stay tuned!

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club Box Office Prediction

The Tyler Perry film factory rolls along this Friday with The Single Moms Club, a comedic drama that will attempt to appeal to the star’s female fans. Nia Long headlines a cast that include Amy Smart, Terry Crews, and the director himself.

Whether or not the film is a hit, Oprah Winfrey’s OWN network has already announced a television adaptation coming later this year. It’s actually been a lackluster last few months for Perry, as his Peeples and A Madea Christmas both failed to meet expectations. Perry is hoping that Single Moms can achieve roughly the same results as Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor which opened to $21 million around the same time last year. This is the fourth pic from his studio in less than a year, but it could be his last in a while as nothing else is currently in production.

The Single Moms Club, at press time, is scheduled to open on about 200 less screens than Temptation. It should reach roughly the same audience as that movie did and I’ll predict an opening in the high teens before the inevitable large second weekend drop-off that all his films suffer.

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/need-for-speed-box-office-prediction/

 

Need for Speed Box Office Prediction

Based on the most successful video game series of all time, this Friday’s Need for Speed hopes to bring in a good portion of the Fast and Furious franchise when it debuts. The car chase action fest showcases the first major starring role for “Breaking Bad” costar Aaron Paul with Dominic Cooper and Michael Keaton rounding out the cast.

It has been proven over and over again for the last two decades that a massive video game doesn’t translate into box office success – Super Mario Bros. anyone? However, Speed has done a decent job at marketing itself as a Fast and Furious type experience and that should allow it to have a pretty solid premiere.

Need for Speed could potentially approach the $30 million opening that Olympus Has Fallen achieved in March 2013. I believe a more likely scenario is somewhere in the mid 20s.

Need for Speed opening weekend prediction: $25.3 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/tyler-perrys-the-single-moms-club-box-office-prediction/