We enter the second weekend of the summer 2014 movie season with three new pictures opening: the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron frat comedy Neighbors, the animated pic Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, and the faith based comedy Moms’ Night Out. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/04/neighbors-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/04/legends-of-oz-dorothys-return-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/04/moms-night-out-box-office-prediction/
Both Oz and Moms’ Night Out could exceed expectations, but I’m estimating rather muted debuts for each. It’s Neighbors that could truly challenge last weekend’s champ The Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the #1 slot. I believe it’ll be close, but ultimately I think Spidey prevails… barely.
Holdovers The Other Woman and Heaven Is for Real should experience drops in the 40s range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $40.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $37.3 million
3. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Moms’ Night Out
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
The summer season got underway and I finally had a pretty damn solid weekend of predictin’!
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 got off to a $91.6 million opening – right in line with my $90.1M projection. This is a solid start for the web slinger, even though it doesn’t match what the original trilogy with Tobey Maguire managed to accomplish. While some prognosticators thought it would top $100M, its opening marks 2014’s second highest rollout following Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $14.4 million… I said $14.3M (gold star)!
Heaven Is for Real was third with $8.6 million… I said $8.5M (gold star 2)!
The rest of the top five was rounded out by Captain America: The Winter Soldier at 4 with $7.7M (a bit below my $9M prediction) and Rio 2 at 5 with $7.7M (just below my $8.3M estimate).
That’s all for now, folks!
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