For the past six and a half years, it’s been rare to see Robert Downey Jr. in any movie that’s not part of a franchise – whether Iron Man, The Avengers, or Sherlock Holmes. This Friday, audiences will have that opportunity with David Dobkin’s The Judge.
The courtroom drama finds Downey playing a hotshot attorney defending his dad/title character played by Robert Duvall. The supporting cast includes Billy Bob Thornton, Vera Farmiga, Vincent D’Onofrio, and Dax Shepard. For a short period of time, The Judge was thought of as a potential awards contender until it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last month. Critical reaction was mixed as it currently stands at a middling 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. The lack of positive buzz from that community could hinder the pic’s opening weekend potential and competition for adult audiences is strong with Gone Girl entering its second weekend and The Equalizer in its third.
The Judge‘s box office success pretty much rests squarely on the shoulders of Downey and his ability to open a non-franchise related title. If this manages to get past $20 million in its premiere, Warner Bros. should consider that a victory. I have my doubts and believe the audience will give it a verdict in the mid to high teens.
The Judge opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
For my prediction on Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, click here:
The first box office weekend of October is bound to be a highly unpredictable one as three new pics enter the marketplace: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, the horror prequel Annabelle, and faith-based Nicolas Cage thriller Left Behind. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Here’s where the unpredictability comes in and it applies to all three new films…
Gone Girl is riding a wave of favorable reviews and it’s based on a very well-known 2012 Gillian Flynn novel. Yet movies like this can sometimes open decently and develop sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. My prediction for Gone Girl is definitely on the high end of expectations.
Annabelle, the prequel/spinoff of last summer’s hit The Conjuring, could easily surpass my prediction, which is definitely on the low end of expectations. It’s conceivable that these two newcomers could fight it out for #1, though my estimates do not reflect that.
Left Behind is another wild card. It is based on a series of well-known novels and its Christian themes could certainly give it a better opening than I’m predicting.
Add all that up and it equals a weekend where surprises would not be surprising. As for holdovers, I anticipate current #1 The Equalizer should lose about half its audience, with smaller declines for the animated The Boxtrolls and YA flick The Maze Runner.
And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $39.6 million
2. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Left Behind
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
It was a terrific weekend for yours truly with newcomers, while I didn’t give a couple of holdovers enough credit and gave another a bit too much.
As expected, Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer easily topped the charts with a rock solid $34.1 million, right in line with my $34.8M projection. The action thriller managed the fourth best September debut ever and the third best for star Washington.
YA hit The Maze Runner slipped to second with $17.4 million, holding up quite better than my $14.6M estimate. The budding new franchise has earned $57 million in ten days and is definitely a treat to pass $100M when all is said and done.
The animated feature The Boxtrolls took third with $17.2 million. My prediction… $17.2M! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one and this represents a decent opening for the pic.
In fourth, ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You made $6.8 million in week two, outpacing my $5.8M projection. It’s made an OK $22 million in ten days.
Fifth place belonged to Dolphin Tale 2 in its third frame with $4.7 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I had the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones earning $6.1 million in weekend #2, yet it only managed $4.1M. This major disappointment has grossed only $20 million so far and should top out with only about $30M.
While much audience anticipation should be focused on Gone Girl and Annabelle this weekend, there is another title heading to theaters Friday. It’s the apocalyptic thriller Left Behind starring Nicolas Cage, based on a bestselling series of books catered to faith based readers.
This is not the first adaptation of the novels to the screen as a version starring Kirk Cameron (!) opened in 2005. This reboot costars Chad Michael Murray and former “American Idol” Jordin Sparks. As far as making a prediction for how this will perform, here’s the main challenge: there’s no current theater screen count at press time.
If this opens on 2000 screens, my predicted number will certainly be different than if it opens on 700. In other words, I’m in a guess work frame of mind here. I’ll say this: this will probably be the only time I wager an estimate on a Nicolas Cage flick where his role was originally played by Kirk Cameron.
This could potentially reach the Christian audience it’s going after, but I don’t see this doing much at all. I’ll reserve to right to change my prediction if the theater count forces me to do so, but for now…
Left Behind opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
When The Conjuring became one of summer 2013’s unexpected hits, one of its most memorable characters wasn’t a human one. Rather it was the creepiest and most demonic doll since Chucky named Annabelle. And now she’s got her own self-titled prequel/spinoff picture opening Friday.
Conjuring director James Wan serves as producer while that film’s cinematographer John R. Leonetti directs. Human stars include Annabelle Wallis, Ward Horton, and Alfre Woodard. Let’s face it, though: the real star is Annabelle the doll and this pic will succeed or fail based on whether audiences want to see her in her own self-contained flick.
My guess is that many horror fans may simply wait to get their Conjuring fix until the actual sequel opens in October 2015. Still, Annabelle should top $20 million in its debut while not reaching close to the $41 million The Conjuring earned out of the gate.
Annabelle opening weekend prediction: $21.2 million
It’s earning highly positive reviews and is based on a huge bestseller by Gillian Flynn. One of the finest directors working today is behind the camera. David Fincher’s Gone Girl seems poised to make a major splash at the box office when it opens this Friday.
Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike star in this thriller where a wife’s disappearance might not be all that it seems. Costars include Neil Patrick Harris and Tyler Perry. Upon its release just two years ago, Gillian Flynn’s book became a must-read and she herself wrote the picture’s screenplay. Fincher, the great director of Seven, Fight Club, and The Social Network, has taken up the task of adapting it. He last found success directing a beloved novel with 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Fincher’s current largest opening of all time is 2002’s Panic Room, which made $30 million out of the gate. Gone Girl seems likely to surpass that.
As mentioned, reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Positive word of mouth should propel Gone Girl to a nice and lengthy run at the multiplexes. I’ll predict this gets off to a very steady beginning and should easily top the charts next weekend.
Gone Girl opening weekend prediction: $39.6 million
Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:
I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million
2. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.
Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.
The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.
Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.
Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.
Focus Features tries to get some animation movie dollars with The Boxtrolls, out Friday. The 3D comedic fantasy features the voices of Ben Kingsley, Elle Fanning, Toni Collette, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and Tracy Morgan.
The Boxtrolls will attempt to bring in family audiences and there is certainly a market out there with Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles having made the vast bulk of their money. However, some of its target audience may look at this as a B team offering. Reviews are sturdy with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time. The absence of similar genre titles could lead to this to a debut above $20 million, but I’m skeptical. I’ll predict it manages an opening in the mid to high teens for a respectable but unspectacular debut.
The Boxtrolls opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
Denzel Washington reteams with his Training Day director Antoine Fuqua for The Equalizer, loosely based on the 1980s crime TV show starring Edward Woodward. Columbia Pictures is so high on the project that they’ve already announced a sequel, so they’re confident this will rake in the dollars. Chloe Grace Moretz, Bill Pullman, and Melissa Leo costar.
There’s reason for the studio to be optimistic. When Denzel works within the action genre, positive results usually follow. In 2012, Safe House got off to a $40 million start and last summer’s 21 Guns took in $27 million. The Equalizer is unlikely to match the actor’s career best opening of $43 million for 2007’s American Gangster, but it’s not totally out of the question. Reviews have been decent and it currently stands at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes.
I believe this should eclipse the opening of 21 Guns while not reaching the heights of Safe House. A debut in the middle of those picture’s openings seems most likely and it should easily rule the box office next weekend.
The Equalizer opening weekend prediction: $34.8 million
Four new titles enter the marketplace this weekend to compete with the current #1 and #2 – No Good Deed and Dolphin Tale 2. They are the YA adaptation The Maze Runner, the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones, star-studded comedy This Is Where I Leave You, and Kevin Smith horror flick Tusk.
**In a change from normal practice, let’s get Tusk out of the way first. Kevin Smith, known most from Clerks fame, has directed this low-budget horror pic. It’s unknown at press time how many screens it will open on, though it’s expected to be relatively low compared to the three other new releases. Without knowing a screen count, it’s difficult to post a detailed prediction post on it, so I didn’t. I will say it opens with $2.3 million, well below having the possibility of being in the top five.
As for the other newbies, you can find my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I expect the three newcomers to populate the top three positions this weekend and the possibility exists of a battle between Maze Runner and Tombstones. Current #1 No Good Deed should suffer a far bigger decline than Dolphin Tale 2 and the two could duke it out for the four spot.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $26.1 million
2. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
4. Dolphin Tale 2
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. No Good Deed
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
In a bit of a surprise, the Idris Elba/Taraji P. Henson thriller No Good Deed debuted at #1 with a robust $24.2 million, well beyond my meager $13.8M projection. Clearly the marketing campaign worked with 60% of its audience being female. As predicted above, it should drop precipitously in its sophomore frame, but with a low budget, it’s an unqualified hit.
Dolphin Tale 2 had to settle for the #2 spot with $15.8 million, in line with my $16.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $19.1 million opening gross of its predecessor, though it shouldn’t fall too far in weekend #2.
The rest of the top five was made up of summer holdovers that all didn’t drop quite as far as I expected. Guardians of the Galaxy was third with $8.1 million (my prediction: $6.8M), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fourth with $4.8 million ($3.9M was my estimate), and Let’s Be Cops fifth with $4.3 million (my prediction: $3.4M).
One interesting box office story was the sixth place debut of The Drop, a crime thriller starring Tom Hardy and the late James Gandolfini. It managed an impressive $4.1 million on only 809 screens, giving it the second highest per screen average of the weekend after Deed. This was certainly above the estimates of most and I didn’t even make a prediction on it.
It’s got all-star cast and a director who’s had his share of successful comedies, but I have my doubts as to whether This Is Where I Leave You will have much of an impact with audiences. Shawn Levy, the man behind the Pink Panther reboot, the Night at the Museum franchise and Date Night, is behind the camera. The family comedy’s cast includes Jason Bateman, Tina Fey, Jane Fonda, Adam Driver, Rose Byrne, Corey Stoll, Dax Shepard, Connie Britton, Kathryn Hahn, Timothy Olyphant, and Abigail Spencer.
Yet my take is that the TV spots and trailers haven’t made this look like a must-see and reviews are mixed. This is the exact type of flick that audiences might wait to watch at home in a few months. The high-profile cast could theoretically push it to a bigger opening that I’m imagining, but my gut says it won’t even reach the mid teens and be a box office disappointment like Levy’s last outing, The Internship.
This Is Where I Leave You opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million
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