Transformers director Michael Bay takes a robotic break next weekend with 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, which recounts the true story of the security team attempting to defend the diplomatic compound during Benghazi’s terrorist attack on September 11, 2012. The cast includes James Badge Dale and John Krasinski.
The film has generated plenty of publicity due its timely subject matter and that could lead to a stealthy gross out of the gate. Competition for male attention is strong, with Ride Along 2 premiering and the second weekend of The Revenant in its path.
That said, January has proven to be quite fruitful for military themed fare. Last year, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper grossed an astonishing $89 million in its wide release opening weekend. In 2013, Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg earned nearly $38 million for its debut. In 2012, the February release of Act of Valor took in $24.4 million for its start.
I believe Benghazi‘s gross might fall somewhere between Survivor and Valor numbers (anything approaching Sniper‘s grosses seems out of reach). My prediction reflects a belief that 13 Hours could reach right near the $30M mark for a very solid opening.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi opening weekend prediction: $29.3 million
Kevin Hart and Ice Cube are back together again in Ride Along 2, exactly two years after the original became a breakout hit. Reuniting with director Tim Story, the action comedy sequel also features Olivia Munn, Ken Jeong, and Benjamin Bratt.
Ride Along kick started Hart’s burgeoning movie career with a three day debut of $41.5 million over the 2014 MLK Day weekend and $48.6 million over the long weekend on its way to a $134.9M domestic haul. Both stars have kept busy over the last two years, with Cube getting a special kind of exposure in last summer’s monster hit Straight Outta Compton.
This follow-up should be in a position to possibly even improve on the original’s numbers. It helps that only a couple years have passed and the first Ride is still fresh in moviegoers minds.
I’ll project Ride Along 2 does just manage to top what came before it and the pic should be the one to finally knock Star Wars from its perch atop the charts.
Ride Along 2 opening weekend prediction: $45.5 million
For my 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi prediction, click here:
Unless Leonardo DiCaprio’s awards contender The Revenant has a much bigger than anticipated debut, it should be weekend #4 atop the charts for record breaker Star Wars: The Force Awakens on this second 2016 frame. As I see it – Han, Leia and company should garner about another $50M+ to add to its astonishing total.
The Revenant is certainly the heavy hitter newbie this weekend and it should have no trouble posting runner-up status. The weekend’s other fresh offerings are horror pic The Forest and faith based sports drama The Masked Saint. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:
The Forest should manage to place fifth unless some leftovers hold up better than my estimates while The Masked Saint may have to settle for an 11th place showing. Daddy’s Home and The Hateful Eight should populate the three and four spots.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $51.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
2. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $33.2 million
3. Daddy’s Home
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. The Hateful Eight
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. The Forest
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (January 1-3)
The Force continued to be incredibly strong as Star Wars three-peated with $90.2 million, a bit under my $98.7M projection. The acclaimed seventh episode of the iconic franchise has amassed $742M at press time and looks to become the highest domestic grosser in history on Wednesday – surpassing Avatar‘s $760M.
Daddy’s Home remained in second with $29.2 million, ahead of my $25.9M estimate for a terrific 10 day haul of $93M. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy has proven itself to be quite the breakout.
Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight expanded wide and could not match my lofty expectations. Coming in behind his previous pics Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained, the three hour pic grossed $15.7 million over the traditional three day weekend and $22.3 million since its wide Wednesday opening. While this is considerably under my $27.2M and $36.1M respective predictions, this is still a decent debut and it hopes to hold up well in subsequent frames.
The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters continued its fine run in fourth with $12.7 million (outpacing my $9.2M estimate) for a three week total of $61M. It could manage to reach close to the century mark and maybe even top it.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip held up solidly in weekend #3 with $12 million for fifth, ahead of my $9.1M projection for a total of $67M.
The David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy was sixth in its second weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.7M estimate. Its just OK two week cume is at $38M.
In seventh was Oscar contender The Big Short, holding nicely at $9 million (above my $7.8M guess) for a tally of $33M. A potential Golden Globe win this coming weekend in the Musical/Comedy race could help continue its sterling performance.
Will Smith’s underwhelming Concussion was eighth with $7.8 million (I was in the ballpark with $8.6M) for ten days earnings of $25M.
Point Break held up stronger than my $5.4M estimate with $6.8 million for a still weak 10 day tally of only $22M.
Rounding out the top ten was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 at $4.6 million (I said $3.6M) for a $274M overall gross.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The faith based and sports themed drama The Masked Saint will attempt to bring in Christian audiences when it debuts January 8th. Saint, budgeted at a meager $3.5 million, tells the story of a pro wrestler (Brett Granstaff) turned small town pastor. Costars include Diahann Carroll and the late wrestler Roddy Piper.
Pics of this genre are notoriously difficult to predict and it’s not rare that they come in with larger numbers than anticipated. With that said, this seems to be flying under the radar and even with a decent turnout of the faithful, reaching double digits is likely a stretch. I’ll predict The Masked Saint manages between $3-6 million which should top its budget in three days.
The Masked Saint opening weekend prediction: $4 million
One year after winning the Directing Oscar for Best Picture winner Birdman, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu unleases The Revenant in theaters next Friday and the box office results could be quite impressive. Leonardo DiCaprio stars in the 19th century brutal tale of survival (complete with well publicized bear attacks) and the buzz has the actor in line to finally receive his elusive Academy Award. Costars include Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson, and Will Poulter.
The Revenant looks like a good possibility for its own Picture nomination and reviews have mostly been solid, as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film has garnered much notice for its reported hellish production shoot. It will need to earn serious money domestically and overseas with a budget of around $135 million.
The marketing campaign for The Revenant has been strong and Leo is one of the few performers who legitimately brings out audiences due to his sterling track record. I suspect this will post an opening gross anywhere from the high 20s to high 30s and if it over performed, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to me.
The Revenant opening weekend prediction: $33.2 million
2016 should come in just as 2015 went out with Star Wars: The Force Awakens continuing its historic record breaking run all over the globe. As I see it, I look for its third weekend to hover right around the $100M mark as it blasts forward with becoming the highest grossing domestic earner of all time.
The big opening this weekend is Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, which debuted in limited release to scorching results. I look for it to come close to $30M over the three day weekend and reach mid 30s for its five day haul (it premieres wide on Wednesday), which should be enough to edge out the second weekend of Daddy’s Home. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
There are a host of Christmas holdovers in their second and third frames which should dominate the rest of the Top Ten (without November’s Hunger Games likely rounding out the list). The New Year’s weekend usually sees Christmas products experiencing smallish declines and this year should be no different. Point Break is likely to see the heftiest fall while I anticipate good holds for Joy, Concussion, and The Big Short.
And with that, my top ten predictions for the weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $98.7 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. The Hateful Eight
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million
3. Daddy’s Home
Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. Joy
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Sisters
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 30%)
7. Concussion
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 22%)
8. The Big Short
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 26%)
9. Point Break
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
10. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 30%)
Box Office Results (December 25-27)
The Christmas holiday produced great results (and mediocre ones) for some newbies while Star Wars: The Force Awakens continued its domination and became the fastest pic to gross a billion dollars worldwide. Awakens took in $149.2 million, in line with my $151.6M estimate for a ten day domestic total of $540M. It looks to extend its #1 streak next weekend and beyond.
While the billion $ Star Wars action deservedly got the most press, the other big story of the weekend is the terrific performance of the Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy Daddy’s Home. Despite lackluster reviews, Home scored with $38.7 million, more than doubling my meager $16.5M prediction.
Jennifer Lawrence and her go to director David O. Russell scored a decent opening with Joy. It placed third with $17 million, above my $14.9M projection. The comedic drama, which got mixed reviews, is highly unlikely to reach the grosses of the star and director’s previous outings, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle.
The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters actually increased its gross during its sophomore weekend with $14.1 million for fourth, ahead of my $10.4M projection for a nice total of $37M. The other flick in its second weekend, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip placed fifth with $13.1 million, not matching my $16.7M estimate. It’s earned an OK $39M and looks to come in well below its three predecessors in the animated rodent franchise.
Will Smith experienced the worst wide opening of his career with the NFL themed Concussion at $11 million for sixth place, under my $13.8M projection. However, an A Cinemascore grade could portend low declines in coming weekends.
Adam McKay’s critically acclaimed Oscar hopeful The Big Short got off to a robust start at seventh place in wide release with $10.5 million over the three day weekend and $14.5 million since its Wednesday roll out (outshining my projections of $8.1M and $10.6M, respectively).
In eighth, action remake Point Break posted the lowest of the newbies with just $10.2 million, a bit under my $11M prediction. Look for it to fade fast.
Ninth place belonged to the sixth weekend of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 with $5.2 million (under my $6.5M estimate) for a total of $264M.
I didn’t post a prediction for the limited release of The Hateful Eight, but it managed to crack the top ten with $4.6 million for an explosive per screen average of $46K on just 100 screens. That bodes well for its wide release on Wednesday.
The emergence of Tarantino’s latest pushed Creed and The Good Dinosaur to 11th and 12th place showings. Creed took in $4.6 million (I said $5.8M) for earnings of $96M. Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur made $3.7 million (I predicted $4.9M) for a total of just $105M. To put that in perspective, Dinosaur has made just $105M at press time. The current lowest overall grosser of Pixar’s 16 offerings is 1998’s A Bug’s Life at $162M at that was 17 years ago when ticket prices were considerably less. Dinosaur will be lucky to reach $120M. Ouch.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time and next year with brand spanking new 2016 box office predictions…
Quentin Tarantino is back behind the camera with Western whodunit The Hateful Eight, which unspools in cinemas on New Year’s Eve following a limited release on Christmas Day. The titled Eight are Samuel L. Jackson, Kurt Russell, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Tim Roth, Bruce Dern, Walton Goggins, Demian Bichir, and Michael Madsen. The three hour epic hopes to replicate the massive success of Tarantino’s last two efforts, 2009’s Inglourious Basterds and 2012’s Django Unchained.
Both of those pics earned Best Picture nominations and made a killing at the box office. Basterds took in $38 million out of the gate, leading to an overall gross of $120 million. Django marked career highs, with a $63 million debut over a long Christmas week three years ago and an eventual take of $162 million.
The Hateful Eight does (for the most part) have critics on its side with a current rating of 87% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, Quentin has a built-in audience of movie lovers who will rush out to see anything he stamps his name on. The pic’s wide release was pushed up by one week to capitalize on its solid buzz (and maybe to avoid direct competition with The Revenant). The release date change does make me wonder if it’s capable of reaching the heights of his two predecessors, partly because people have plans on New Year’s Eve and are often, um, relaxing on New Year’s Day. Also, while reviews are strong, this is not receiving the level of awards buzz that his two predecessors did.
Even with those potential demerits, The Hateful Eight should score an opening in the $25-$30M range for what will likely be a sturdy #2 posting behind the third frame of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
**Blogger’s note (12/28): with today’s announcement that the film will open on Wednesday (12/30) instead of Friday, my prediction has been altered to reflect that late breaking change.
The Hateful Eight opening weekend prediction: $27.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $36.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
This year, Christmas falls on a Friday and there are five new presents to potentially unwrap at the theater: Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy Daddy’s Home, David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy, Oscar hopeful The Big Short with Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt, action remake Point Break, and Will Smith NFL centered drama Concussion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, all five are likely to gross somewhere from the high single digits to mid to high teens. I have Daddy’s Home managing to come in first among the newbies, but it could be a close competition for sure.
As for holdovers, both Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters will be entering their sophomore frames after sturdy debuts (especially considering the competition). The Christmas weekend usually means that holdovers often increase their gross from the previous weekend and I believe this will hold true for Alvin (and Hunger Games and The Good Dinosaur and Creed for that matter). Sisters should experience a fairly small decline.
And that, of course, brings us to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will be entering weekend #2 after its historic opening (more on that below). Audiences and critics have taken to it and it has quickly become a cultural phenomenon. Its next record could be highest second weekend total of all time and in order to do so, it would need to top the six month long record of Jurassic World‘s $106.6 million. As I see it, Force shouldn’t have much of a problem accomplishing that feat and I envision a drop of around 40% for the holiday weekend.
And with that, I’ll expand beyond my usual number and do a Top 11 predictions for an extraordinarily packed Christmas weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $151.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing an increase of 17%)
3. Daddy’s Home
Predicted Gross: $16.5 million
4. Joy
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
5. Concussion
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
6. Point Break
Predicted Gross: $11 million
7. Sisters
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 25%)
8. The Big Short
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $10.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)
9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing an increase of 11%)
10. Creed
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing an increase of 14%)
11. The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing an increase of 14%)
Box Office Results (December 18-20)
Slip in any cliche you like. The Force was with it. It moved at warp speed past the record. Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily set the high for largest domestic opening of all time with an otherworldly $247.9 million, topping my projection of $234.7M. This blasted past the record of Jurassic World, which made $208.8M this summer by nearly $40M. With universal acclaim, Awakens has given Disney a mega franchise to work with for years and crowds were clearly clamoring for a return to that galaxy far, far away.
Two titles dared to open against this juggernaut and both fared decently. Alvin and the Chipmunks took the runner-up spot with $14.2 million, right on par with my $14.3M estimate. While this fourth entry in the series easily had the smallest debut of the bunch, it’s still not bad considering it was up against Luke and company. I’m predicting it’ll see a bounce and stay #2 next weekend.
The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters was third with $13.9 million for a commendable beginning. My prediction? $13.9M… boom!
Holdovers fell a bit further than my predictions. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 fell to fourth after four weeks at #1 with $5.8 million (I said $7M). Its total stands at $254M.
Creed rounded out the top five with $5 million compared to my $6.3M estimate for an overall gross of $87M.
Pixar disappointment The Good Dinosaur was sixth with $4.3 million, under my $6.8M projection. It has yet to reach $100M after 4 weeks at $96M.
I incorrectly had Krampus outside my top seven and it took that number with $4.1 million for a tidy gross of $35M. That’s because I had the Ron Howard/Chris Hemsworth dud In the Heart of the Sea in seventh. It plummeted to 8th in weekend #2 with a gross of just $3.4 million (compared to my $5.6M estimate) and ten days earnings of just $18M. Ouch.
And that’ll do it for now, ladies and gents! Be sure to check back next week for all the Merry results…
Known primarily for directing Will Ferrell comedies (if this wasn’t coming out, you might have thought he’s behind the camera for competitor Daddy’s Home), Adam McKay changes things up with The Big Short, out December 23rd. The comedic drama focuses on the housing crisis from a few years ago and stars heavyweights Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt. Other supporting players include Melissa Leo and Marisa Tomei.
The pic has received mostly glowing reviews and it stands at 85% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It stands a very decent shot at a Best Picture nomination. That said, that doesn’t mean Short will come up big in its debut. Even with star power and Oscar buzz, competition over Christmas weekend for adults is fierce (Joy, Concussion). And the last time a critically acclaimed Oscar player focusing on recent events opened, it was Steve Jobs and it flamed out with a $7.1 million opening.
I believe The Big Short is more likely to be a slow burner that could gain momentum if its potential Academy nods pan out. There is a small advantage for it opening on Wednesday, two days before four other titles enter an already crowded Star Wars marketplace. I believe this will just top $10 million for its five day beginning.
The Big Short opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Nearly 25 years ago, eventual Oscar winning director Kathryn Bigelow made Point Break, an effective mix of action and surfing that starred Patrick Swayze and Keanu Reeves. It turned into quite a cult hit and Warner Bros. has teed up a Christmas Day remake that comes with a reported $120 million budget.
The pic stars Edgar Ramirez (pulling double duty over the holidays in Joy), Luke Bracey, and Ray Winstone. Break has already opened overseas to so-so results. The questions begs itself: are audiences clamoring for a Point Break remake? While the original deserves its solid reputation, is the remembrance of it fond enough so that action fans will see it? And there’s also the fact that genre fans might be taking in Star Wars in its second weekend for the first time. Or second or third.
Considering those factors, I’m even skeptical that this breaks double digits in its debut. To be fair, another recent action remake Red Dawn opened to $14 million and $21 million over the Thanksgiving 2012 holiday, which was more than I predicted by quite a bit. That aside, I’ll estimate that Point Break just squeaks by the double digit mark for a disappointing start.
Point Break opening weekend prediction: $11 million
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