Box Office Predictions: June 3-5

The first box office weekend of June brings a trio of new entries: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, British romance Me Before You, and Andy Samberg’s musical doc spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/me-before-you-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/26/popstar-never-stop-never-stopping-box-office-prediction/

That martial arts reptile sequel should have no problem topping the charts, unless it severely comes in under expectations… you know, like Alice Through the Looking Glass did (more on that below).

X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice should experience high drops, though should still mark the two spot. Alice may find itself in a battle for third with Me Before You (or even Angry Birds). Captain America should fall to 6th with Popstar perhaps settling for seventh.

Therefore, let’s do a top 7 predictions this weekend and see how it all shakes out:

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $50.3 million

2. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 63%)

5. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

 

6. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

7. Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (Memorial Day Weekend 2016)

As anticipated, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the Memorial Day weekend, even though its tally couldn’t match the superior performance of its predecessor, Days of Future Past, in the same weekend in 2014. The 8th feature in the franchise (which received less favorable reviews than most others) earned $65.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $79.8 million counting its Monday earnings. That’s far below my respective predictions of $82.8M and $100.4M. By contrast, Future Past‘s Memorial Day brought in $90M and $110M for its holiday performance.

Disney has had a truly incredible year with smashes like Zootopia, The Jungle Book, and Captain America: Civil War. Yet the hits stopped this weekend with the massive failure of Alice Through the Looking Glass. The sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (which received scathing reviews) tanked with only $26.8 million over the three day and $33.5 million for the holiday. I went WAY over with $53.6M and $67.7M. This is an unmitigated disaster. Speculation is fair about whether Johnny Depp’s scandal over the weekend with Amber Heard may have played a part, but the studio may have simply waited too long to put this out.

The Angry Birds Movie dropped to third in its sophomore frame with $18.7 million for the three-day (just under my $20.4M forecast) and $24.5 million for the full weekend. My prediction? $24.5M! Yay me! Its total sits at $72M.

Captain America: Civil War fell to fourth in weekend #4 with $15.3 million and $20 million, under my estimates of $18.1M and $22.2M for a $377M gross. It should reach over $400M.

Disappointing comedy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising was fifth with my $9.3 million and $11.4 million for the three and four day a bit below my respective estimates of $10.4M and $12.2M. The two week total for it: $40M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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One thought on “Box Office Predictions: June 3-5

  1. Yo Todd!

    I feel like we shouldn’t be surprised by Alice 2 taking so badly, but I really wasn’t all that surprised. I’ve still never seen the Alice in Wonderland, and have little to no desire to do so…let alone see a sequel.

    This week’s numbers are:
    TMNT 2 – $38.7M
    Me Before You – $14.8M
    Popstar (a/k/a the movie I hope bombs more than any other this summer, because I can’t stand these types of dumb ass movies) – $3.4M

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