For the third time, director David O. Russell and Jennifer Lawrence team up for comedy/drama Joy and it hopes to replicate the success from their two previous outings, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle.
The pic tells the true-ish story of Miracle Mop founder Joy Mangano (Lawrence) and features Russell regulars Robert De Niro and Bradley Cooper, as well as Edgar Ramirez, Isabella Rossellini, Virginia Madsen, and Diane Ladd.
This will need to clear some considerable hurdles in order to match previous successes. For starters, Joy is opening on Christmas in an ultra competitive frame where competition for adult moviegoers includes Concussion and The Big Short (and the second weekend of Star Wars). Secondly, unlike Playbook and Hustle, the awards buzz for this is muted at best. While Lawrence is likely to receive a Best Actress nod for her well regarded work, critics have been mixed and it stands at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes (well under Russell and Lawrence’s first two outings). The so-so buzz means it probably won’t be a player in any other Academy categories other than for its lead actress.
With those factors in mind, I anticipate Joy not reaching the $19.1 million accomplished by American Hustle over the holidays in 2013. A debut in the low to mid teens seems more probable.
Tackling a topic that’s been in the forefront of sports news recently, Concussion opens Christmas Day, headlined by Will Smith. The pic focuses on the controversy with head trauma and the NFL, casting its star as the real life doctor trying to warn the multi-billion dollar organization of its effects. Costars include Alec Baldwin, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Albert Brooks, and Luke Wilson as Commissioner Goodell.
Reviews for Concussion have been mixed and it currently stands at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. Smith could find himself in the mix for Best Actor at the Oscars and that exposure helps. The pic has been advertised frequently during sporting events on TV.
Yet that still might not add up to a big opening weekend. Competition is fierce for adults (Joy, The Big Short open against it) and its lack of major buzz could mean a debut in the low teens. The best hope for Concussion may be playing solidly over future weekends, which it may well accomplish.
Concussion opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
Five and a half years after their successful collaboration The Other Guys, Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg team up once again for Daddy’s Home, out Christmas Day. The tale pitting stepdad (Ferrell) vs. real dad (Wahlberg) looks to bring in comedy fans over the holiday weekend. Costars include Linda Cardellini, Hannibal Buress, and Thomas Haden Church.
It has the advantage of being the only straight up comedy (Joy has elements) opening, but it will have to contend with competition from the second frame of Sisters starring Ferrell’s former SNL costars Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. With so many other movies in the marketplace, Daddy’s Home stands no realistic shot at matching the $35 million debut for The Other Guys or the $33 million premiere of Ferrell’s last outing Get Hard, which had the advantage of also starring Kevin Hart. The more likely scenario is making about half those numbers out of the gate.
As I see it, this stands a real shot at having the highest opening of the five Christmas Day features, but that still may only mean a gross in the mid to high teens as it hopes to experience small declines in future weekends.
Daddy’s Home opening weekend prediction: $16.5 million
It’s a weekend that box office prognosticators like myself have been waiting for all year long! Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the fourth Alvin and the Chipmunks film has arrived!!!
OK… in all seriousness, you may have heard of the big picture arriving this weekend called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The seventh episode of the beloved franchise has been breathlessly awaited and it stands a shot at breaking pretty much every box office record there is. I truly feel it could gross anywhere from $170-$275 million out of the gate so I basically split the difference. That means my prediction does have it devouring the all time opening weekend record posted by Jurassic World this summer. It is worth noting that other estimators are saying this will come under what Jurassic accomplished, but we shall see. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
Somewhat surprisingly, other studios are premiering new product in hopes of serving as counter programming to The Force. We have the aforementioned Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. I look for them to have fairly soft openings and have a close competition for second place. On the bright side, both titles could continue to play well and experience small declines into further holiday weekends. My prediction posts on both of them can be found here:
As for holdovers, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 will finally fall from its four week perch atop the charts. In the Heart of the Sea got off to a lackluster start (more on that below) and I actually expect it to drop farther percentage wise than The Good Dinosaur and Creed.
And with that, my top seven predictions for what could be a historic weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $234.7 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Sisters
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 38%)
5. The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)
6. Creed
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
7. In the Heart of the Sea
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results: December 11-13
Ron Howard’s $100 million whale tale In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth was crushed by a wave of audience ambivalence with a gross of just $11 million, well under my $18.4M estimate. The pic, which received mixed reviews, simply didn’t capture the attention of adventure fans who may be biding their time until this weekend.
That allowed The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 to stay #1 for the fourth weekend in a row with $11.3 million, just topping my $10.5M projection. The franchise finale has taken in $244 million.
Pixar’s disappointing The Good Dinosaur was third with $10.5 million, ahead of my $9.4M prediction for a total of $89 million. This is well below the standards of what its studio is accustomed to and it remains on track to be Pixar’s smallest earner. On the bright side for parent company Disney, they’ve got a pretty high profile release out this weekend…
Creed took fourth with $10.1 million, a bit higher than my $9.1M estimate for an overall tally of $79 million. This looks to be the first Rocky flick to top $100M since Rocky IV some thirty years ago.
Krampus was fifth in its second weekend with $8.4 million, topping my $7.3M projection. Its taken in a tidy $28 million at press time and is performing solidly for a relatively low budget horror comedy.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time… May The Force Be With You…
After four years of box office dormancy, Alvin and Simon and Theodore bring their CGI rodent selves back to the silver screen for the fourth time in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip. Jason Lee returns as Dave along with a voice over cast including Justin Long, Jesse McCartney, Christina Applegate, Anna Faris and Kaley Cuoco.
The chipmunk franchise has been a gold mine for 20th Century Fox. The 2007 original was a surprise smash with a $44 million premiere and a $217 million domestic take. Its 2009 sequel The Squeakquel improved on that performance with a $48 million three day and $75 million holiday start and eventual $219 million haul. Two years later, third pic Chipwrecked saw fortunes go down with a $23 million opening and $133 million overall showing.
The Road Chip faces two hurdles that could be equally troubling: the four year layoff (where kiddie franchise fans have now grown up) and the fact that it opens against Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will undoubtedly bring in a massive family audience.
Considering those factors, this fourth chip down 80s cartoon memory lane should find itself with the weakest debut of the series thus far.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:
Nearly eight years after they had a decent size hit with Baby Mama, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler team up again for Sisters, out next Friday. The modestly budgeted $30 million comedy also stars Maya Rudolph, John Leguizamo, Ike Barinholtz, John Cena, James Brolin, and Dianne Wiest.
Universal Pictures is hoping that Sisters will appeal to a female demographic that may not be chomping at the bit to see Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which this bravely opens against. The two stars certainly have their fans and the strategy may work. 2008’s Baby Mama earned $17.4 million out of the gate and an eventual gross of a sturdy $64 million.
Based on the competition alone, I feel Sisters will struggle to reach that opening number next weekend yet it could manage close to Mama’s grosses if it performs well over the subsequent holiday weekends.
Sisters opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:
It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).
Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.
We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.
For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.
So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.
We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.
None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.
Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.
Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.
What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!
Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million
Call it the call before an intergalactic storm as the second week of December brings just one new entry: Ron Howard’s In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth. The film has picked up decent reviews (65% on Rotten Tomatoes) yet it seems to be flying a bit under the radar and it posted disappointing results in its overseas debut over the weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Even with my predicted mediocre opening for Sea, it shouldn’t have much trouble premiering at #1 as the rest of the top five should consist of holdovers The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Krampus, Creed, and The Good Dinosaur. Comedic holiday horror fest Krampus had a better than anticipated opening (more on that below), but it should suffer the largest drop-off as that genre usually does.
All in all, it should be a pretty quiet weekend before the box office juggernaut Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks to demolish records the following week. And I’ll have my individual prediction post on that pic up later this week!
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
In the Heart of the Sea
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Creed
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Krampus
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (December 4-6)
As expected, it was a quiet post Thanksgiving weekend at the box office as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 managed to stay on top for the third weekend in a row. The bright spot was Krampus, which exceeded the expectations of prognosticators by a nice margin.
Katniss and company ruled the charts with $18.8 million, right in line with my $18.5M estimate and the final chapter in the franchise has taken in $227M.
Krampus soared past my $7.1 million projection to earn $16.2 million for a solid runner-up showing. The mostly well reviewed horror comedy, as mentioned, surpassed nearly all estimates.
Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur continued to show disappointing results with $15.3 million in weekend #2, below my $18.7M prediction. It stands at $75 million at press time and is in very real danger of being Pixar’s lowest domestic grosser of all time.
The critically hailed Creed made $14.9 million in its sophomore frame, a bit below my $16.4M estimate for an overall haul of $64M. A gross of over $100M seems within reach.
Finally, Spectre rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, in range with my $6M projection for a total of $184M.
It’s got an Oscar winning director and Thor starring in it, but chances are that next Friday’s In the Heart of the Sea is destined to be known as “the movie that opened the week before Star Wars“. In other words – it better make its money now.
Ron Howard directs the whale tale epic that inspired Moby Dick with Chris Hemsworth in the lead and Cillian Murphy, Brendan Gleeson, Benjamin Walker, and Ben Whishaw costarring. Early reviews are quite mixed (it stands at 67% currently on Rotten Tomatoes) and widespread acclaim could have helped.
While trailers and TV spots have been decent, it seems like Sea has been flying a bit under the radar for a pic of its scale and, as mentioned, it doesn’t help with the galactic Goliath that follows just a week later.
On this same weekend last year, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings took in $24 million. That, too, was an epic tale with an Oscar winning auteur and lead actor known for his superhero role (Christian Bale). Sea will be lucky to reach that number and I believe it will fall short of the $20M mark for a choppy start.
In the Heart of the Sea opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million
The first week of December is traditionally a weak frame at the box office as the month’s heavy hitters have yet to roll out and moviegoers are mostly nibbling on Thanksgiving leftovers. This year figures to follow suit as only the Christmas themed horror comedy Krampus opens wide and I don’t see it performing too well. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
The post holiday weekend also usually means big drop offs for existing pics. The last two Hunger Games entries have fallen more than 60% on this weekend and current champ Mockingjay – Part 2 should do the same.
Disney’s animated features that debuted on Turkey Day weekend have typically fallen over 50% and that could true here with The Good Dinosaur.
And that could create a serious photo finish for the top spot. To add to the mystery: Creed opened to better than expected results and I foresee it having the smallest decline due to very positive word of mouth.
Krampus should land in the four spot with Spectre rounding out the top five. And here are those top five estimates for a fairly sleepy weekend:
The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 64%)
3. Creed
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Krampus
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Spectre
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Box Office Results (November 25-29)
Katniss and crew maintained their dominance as Mockingjay – Part 2 ruled Thanksgiving with $52 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $75.9 million for the five day holiday frame. This was in line with my respective projections of $48.4M and $75.5M. The franchise finale stands at $198 million so far.
Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur had a so so premiere compared to what the company is used to with $39.1 million over the three day and $55.4 million for the long weekend. This is well under my predictions of $56.6M and $78.9M. It will need meager drop offs over the holidays to avoid potentially being Pixar’s smallest earner in its storied two decade existence.
With legitimate Oscar buzz, Creed tapped into Rocky nostalgia and made a magnificent $29.6 million (three day) and $42.1 million (five day), knocking out my estimates of $19.6M and $27.4M. The red hot word of mouth clearly brought this to heights that were unimaginable just weeks ago.
Spectre was fourth with $12.8 million (three day) and a five day tally of $18.2 million for a $176M overall gross. I was close with $13.1M and $17.7M.
The Peanuts Movie came in a bit below my forecast at fifth with $9.7 million and $13.6 million compared to my predictions of $11.1M and $15.3M. It’s made $116M.
The Night Before was sixth in its sophomore frame with $8.3 million and $10.7 million – right in line with my estimates of $8M and (bingo!) $10.7M.
Last and majorly least, critically drubbed Victor Frankenstein tanked with an embarrassing $2.4 million and $3.5 million since its Wednesday start. This put it in just 12th place and way below my generous $10.8 and $14.8M projections.
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