Tag: box office predictions

Finding Dory Box Office Prediction

Thirteen years after the original made a major splash at the box office, Finding Dory hits theaters next weekend and looks to reinvigorate a somewhat slumping marketplace. The Disney/Pixar release is, of course, the sequel to 2003’s now classic Finding Nemo. Director Andrew Stanton is back, as are the voices of Ellen DeGeneres and Albert Brooks. Plenty of other familiar faces make their voices heard here – Diane Keaton, Bill Hader, Idris Elba, Eugene Levy, Kate McKinnon, Ty Burrell, Ed O’Neill, and Dominic West among them.

The summer of 2016 has seen a host of sequels not matching up to their originals. Some of them have been family programming, like Alice Through the Looking Glass and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.

It is highly likely that Dory will not suffer the same fate. In fact, the real question seems to be whether or not this will score Pixar’s largest opening weekend in its now 21 year history. That honor currently belongs to another sequel, 2010’s Toy Story 3, which debuted with $110.3 million. Dory is currently said to be tracking a bit above that. I believe it will surpass that number, but probably not by much (though with the sequelitis occurring recently, I do feel a touch of nervousness with this prediction). Still, if anything can break through – it’s this.

In order for it to score the second biggest animated premiere in history, it’d need to top the $115.7 million earned by last summer’s Minions. To get to #1, Dory would have to swim past the $121.6 million gross of Shrek the Third from 2007. It’s possible that it could achieve either one of those records.

I’ll predict Dory falls below Shrek and just above Minions to earn the #2 animated debut stateside and also set the Pixar record. That would go a long ways toward washing the bad taste out of the Mouse Factory’s mouths for Looking Glass and last fall’s The Good Dinosaur, which was the first Pixar title to lose money.

Finding Dory opening weekend prediction: $117.3 million

For my Central Intelligence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/central-intelligence-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: June 10-12

The attack of the sequels continues in the second weekend of June 2016 as The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 debut. Both are follow-ups to massive summer 2013 hits and both will attempt to match or outdo their predecessors out of the gate. And there’s the long-awaited Warcraft, based on the two decades old video game with a fervent following. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/the-conjuring-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/now-you-see-me-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/warcraft-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the three newbies should populate the top 3 spots this weekend. However, other prognosticators may differ with my placement of them. I have Conjuring 2 slightly outpacing the original and rather easily placing first. On the other hand, I’m predicting Now You See Me 2 will come in a bit under the $29M accomplished by its predecessor and finish second.

Warcraft is the biggest question mark, in my estimation. Even with its devoted fan base, word of mouth has been troubling, competition is fierce, and I’m having difficulty seeing it expand beyond its core audience. That puts it third in my book in a photo finish with Now You See Me 2. 

After an unimpressive opening (more on that below), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows should drop to fourth. The five spot could be a close one between the third weekend of X-Men: Apocalypse and the second weekend of Me Before You, which performed quite well in its debut.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Conjuring 2

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Now You See Me 2

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million

3. Warcraft

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (June 3-5)

There was little question that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows would rule the weekend, but its eventual take was none too impressive. The sequel made $35.3 million, well below my $50.3M prediction. Shadows continues the 2016 trend of sequels coming in considerably below their predecessors. The 2014 reboot of the franchise made $65M in its opening weekend.

X-Men: Apocalypse (another sequel not matching its previous entry) dropped to second with $22.8 million, a bit under my $25.3M forecast for a two-week total of $116M.

The British romantic drama Me Before You had an impressive roll-out with $18.7 million compared to my meager $11.5M estimate. The film, which received mostly positive reviews, was the beneficiary of a sizable female turnout in a sea of the mostly male-driven material populating the multiplexes.

Alice Through the Looking Glass continued its putrid run in weekend #2 with $11.3 million, though it did top my $10M prediction. The Disney bomb has grossed just $51 million in ten days… less than half of what 2010’s Alice in Wonderland earned in its first weekend.

The Angry Birds Movie was fifth with $10.2 million (in line with my $9.8M projection) for an $87M tally so far.

Captain America: Civil War was sixth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a total of $389M and $400M right around the corner.

I did a top seven predictions for this weekend and incorrectly had under performing Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising outside that group. It placed 7th with $4.8 million for an overall $48M gross.

That’s because I had Andy Samberg’s Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping at seventh, yet it charted in 8th with a weak $4.6 million opening (I said $5.6M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Warcraft Box Office Prediction

The theme of the new releases for the second week of June 2016 have major ties to the summer of 2013. The Conjuring 2 is the sequel to the horror hit that came out that season three years ago. Now You See Me 2 is the follow-up to the surprise blockbuster that also hit screens that same season. Where we can find a Summer 2013 connection to Warcraft?

Well, it may be just M. Night Shyamalan’s After Earth. If that sounds like a bad omen, you wouldn’t be wrong. The pic is, of course, based on the wildly popular video game series that dates back to 1994. That game has spawned comics, cards, magazines, and more and has a highly faithful fan base. It was only a matter of time before it got the big screen treatment and Universal Pictures tapped Duncan Jones to make it. Mr. Jones (son of David Bowie) is known for critically lauded sci-fi entries Moon and Source Code. Travis Fimmel, Paula Patton, Ben Foster, and Dominic Cooper are among the humans battling lots of CG creatures.

Warcraft comes with a giant budget of $160 million. It also comes with mostly negative word of mouth and reviews (it sits at just 24% on Rotten Tomatoes). The film will need a very strong showing by its devotees to avoid being a costly dud and that could be a tall order. The love for the game could push this higher than my prediction, but I’m skeptical. Competition is strong with the aforementioned sequels to The Conjuring and Now You See Me. 

The comparison to After Earth could be apt as it was another big-budget genre tale with poor reviews and troubling buzz. That Will Smith title made $27.5 million for its start and I believe Warcraft could have trouble matching even that.

Warcraft opening weekend prediction: $23.3 million

For my The Conjuring 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/the-conjuring-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Now You See Me 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/now-you-see-me-2-box-office-prediction/

Now You See Me 2 Box Office Prediction

Three summers ago, the magic caper Now You See Me came out of nowhere with a $29 million opening and eventual $117M domestic gross. This was probably never looked at by Summit Entertainment as a potential franchise, but those numbers mean sequel and Now You See Me 2 is out next weekend. Lex Luthor (Jesse Eisenberg), Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), Alfred (Michael Caine), and Lucius Fox (Morgan Freeman) are all back, as are Woody Harrelson and Dave Franco. Lizzy Caplan and Harry Potter himself (Daniel Radcliffe) join the party. Jon M. Chu, whose varied credits include Justin Bieber: Never Say Never and G.I. Joe: Retaliation, takes over directorial duties from Louis Leterrier.

Unlike 2013, NYSM2 comes with expectations and also with stiff competition. Another sequel to a summer 2013 hit, The Conjuring 2, should have the leg up for opening weekend earnings and there’s also the high-profile Warcraft competing for eyeballs.

While I have the Conjuring follow-up slightly outdoing its predecessor out of the gate, I’ll predict this sequel comes in a bit under what the original accomplished for what will still be a pretty decent debut.

Now You See Me 2 opening weekend prediction: $24.1 million

For my The Conjuring 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/the-conjuring-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Warcraft prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/warcraft-box-office-prediction/

The Conjuring 2 Box Office Prediction

Three summers ago, The Conjuring became one of the most highly regarded horror titles in recent years with critics and audiences alike. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga return as real life paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren and this inevitable sequel focuses on one of their most famous cases circa London in the late 1970s. James Wan, who directed the original as well as the first two Insidious flicks and last year’s Furious 7, is back behind the camera. His history with horror sequels is pretty great. Insidious made $13 million in its premiere. The sequel made $40 million.

The first entry conjured up a fantastic $41 million opening and topped out at $137M domestically. Warner Bros. would love a repeat performance and they may well get one. Even the critically derided Conjuring spin-off Annabelle took in a robust $37 million for its start. One potential stumbling block: competition is a little more fierce this time around with Now You See Me 2 (another sequel to a sleeper summer 2013 blockbuster) and Warcraft (which will be going for many of the same moviegoers) opening directly against it.

That said, I believe the goodwill left over from the first will get this in the same range of its predecessor for a frighteningly solid start.

The Conjuring 2 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my Now You See Me 2 prediction, click here:

Now You See Me 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Warcraft prediction, click here:

Warcraft Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: June 3-5

The first box office weekend of June brings a trio of new entries: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, British romance Me Before You, and Andy Samberg’s musical doc spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Box Office Prediction

Me Before You Box Office Prediction

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Box Office Prediction

That martial arts reptile sequel should have no problem topping the charts, unless it severely comes in under expectations… you know, like Alice Through the Looking Glass did (more on that below).

X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice should experience high drops, though X should still mark the two spot. Alice may find itself in a battle for third with Me Before You (or even Angry Birds). Captain America should fall to 6th with Popstar perhaps settling for seventh.

Therefore, let’s do a top 7 predictions this weekend and see how it all shakes out:

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $50.3 million

2. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 63%)

5. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

 

6. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

7. Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (Memorial Day Weekend 2016)

As anticipated, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the Memorial Day weekend, even though its tally couldn’t match the superior performance of its predecessor, Days of Future Past, in the same weekend in 2014. The 8th feature in the franchise (which received less favorable reviews than most others) earned $65.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $79.8 million counting its Monday earnings. That’s far below my respective predictions of $82.8M and $100.4M. By contrast, Future Past‘s Memorial Day brought in $90M and $110M for its holiday performance.

Disney has had a truly incredible year with smashes like Zootopia, The Jungle Book, and Captain America: Civil War. Yet the hits stopped this weekend with the massive failure of Alice Through the Looking Glass. The sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (which received scathing reviews) tanked with only $26.8 million over the three day and $33.5 million for the holiday. I went WAY over with $53.6M and $67.7M. This is an unmitigated disaster. Speculation is fair about whether Johnny Depp’s scandal over the weekend with Amber Heard may have played a part, but the studio may have simply waited too long to put this out.

The Angry Birds Movie dropped to third in its sophomore frame with $18.7 million for the three-day (just under my $20.4M forecast) and $24.5 million for the full weekend. My prediction? $24.5M! Yay me! Its total sits at $72M.

Captain America: Civil War fell to fourth in weekend #4 with $15.3 million and $20 million, under my estimates of $18.1M and $22.2M for a $377M gross. It should reach over $400M.

Disappointing comedy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising was fifth with my $9.3 million and $11.4 million for the three and four day a bit below my respective estimates of $10.4M and $12.2M. The two week total for it: $40M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Box Office Prediction

It has, at least to me, a title that makes me laugh every time I think of it. Yet I’m not convinced that will lead to an impressive performance on the charts.

Andy Samberg and his Lonely Island partners Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone headline the music documentary spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. Costars include Sarah Silverman, Tim Meadows, Bill Hader, Joan Cusack, Maya Rudolph, Will Arnett (pulling double duty over the weekend with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows), and Martin Sheen. There’s also a bunch of cameos from real pop stars such as Adam Levine, Mariah Carey, Usher, and Carrie Underwood.

Mr. Samberg’s digital shorts on “Saturday Night Live” were a solid staple of the show for many years with classics like “Lazy Sunday” and “Dick in a Box”. His film career, on the other hand, has been pretty unimpressive box office wise. 2007’s Hot Rod and 2012’s That’s My Boy both were critical and commercial disappointments.

I’ll predict Popstar struggles to even reach high single digits.

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-box-office-prediction/

For my Me Before You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/me-before-you-box-office-prediction/

Me Before You Box Office Prediction

For those who don’t believe there’s enough British romance in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, a good alternative could be Me Before You. Based on a 2012 bestseller by Jojo Moyes, the drama from first-time director Thea Sharrock stars “Games of Thrones” actress Emilia Clarke, Sam Claflin, Jenna Coleman, Charles Dance, and Janet McTeer.

The Warner Bros. release hopes to capture a female audience against competition that is mostly based on comic books and more male driven. Better reviews may have assisted – it currently stands at just 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.

That said, it’s hoped for counter programming measures could get it to low double digits or low teens.

Me Before You opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-box-office-prediction/

For my Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/26/popstar-never-stop-never-stopping-box-office-prediction/

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Box Office Prediction

Box office prognosticators such as myself were a little shell shocked two summers ago when Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles made its return to the big screen and posted a $65 million opening weekend. Its eventual domestic haul was $191M. The pizza loving reptiles are back again in Out of the Shadows alongside returnee non-reptile performers Megan Fox, Will Arnett, and William Fichtner. Chris O’Donnell look alike Stephen Amell joins the mix as Casey Jones, as do Tyler Perry and Laura Linney.

The Michael Bay produced franchise may not see much of a drop-off from its predecessor. The well-received 2014 effort (critics weren’t fans, but audiences ate it up) is still fresh in viewers minds. Youngsters who dug the first one and older fans introduced to Raphael, Michelangelo, Leonardo, Raphael, and Donatello in the late 80s and early 90s should bring this sequel to a gross in the low 50s.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opening weekend prediction: $50.3 million

For my Me Before You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/me-before-you-box-office-prediction/

For my Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/26/popstar-never-stop-never-stopping-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 27-30

It’s Memorial Day weekend coming up at the summer box office with two high-profile sequels debuting – X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/x-men-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/alice-through-the-looking-glass-box-office-prediction/

I expect the Mutants to fairly easily top The Mad Hatter, with Apocalypse just edging the century mark for its four-day holiday frame with Looking Glass getting to the mid-60s. That would mean both entries would come in below what their predecessors managed in 2014 and 2010, respectively.

As for holdovers, The Angry Birds Movie should slide to third after a robust 1st place debut (more on that below) with Captain America: Civil War and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (which struggled this last weekend) rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the Memorial Day frame which encapsulates my three and four-day forecasts:

  1. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $53.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $67.7 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.2 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (May 20-22)

The first feature film based on an app nabbed the #1 spot as The Angry Birds Movie soared to a $38.1 million opening, a bit above my $34.5M projection. This was on the higher end of expectations for the animated pic.

After two weeks on top, Captain America: Civil War slipped to second with $32.9 million, just under my $35.1M forecast for a three-week total of $347M.

The news was not good for Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, and company as Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising grossed an unimpressive $21.7 million for third. I went way over with $38.2M, which I should predicted for those ill-tempered birds. Considering the original made $49M out of the gate, we can safely assume Neighbors 3 won’t happen. This continues a recent trend of comedy sequels (think: Horrible Bosses, Zoolander) under performing.

Despite mostly glowing reviews, The Nice Guys with Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling finished fourth with $11.2 million in its opening, under my $14.4M prediction.

The Jungle Book rounded out the top five with $10.9 million and I predicted… $10.9M! Yay! Almost makes up for the Neighbors thing, but not really…

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…