20th Century Fox’s Ice Age franchise keeps rolling along as Collision Course glides into theaters next weekend. It is the fifth in the series that began in 2002 and the four previous pictures have performed pleasingly. Predecessor Continental Drift was the lowest grosser thus far, but not by much with a $46 million opening and $161 million overall take. 2009’s Dawn of the Dinosaurs was the series high point with $196 million.
Ray Romano, John Leguizamo, Denis Leary, Queen Latifah, Jennifer Lopez, and Simon Pegg (pulling double duty over the weekend with Star Trek Beyond) all return for their voice over work with Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Adam Devine, and Nick Offerman joining the party.
Animals and animation have been a potent box office combo in 2016 and that does mean competition as The Secret Life of Pets should still be raking it in in weekend #3. That could dent Collision Course a bit and I do expect it to post the lowest opening weekend of the franchise so far by a rather substantial margin.
Ice Age: Collision Course opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million
The crew of the USS Enterprise returns for the third time in this current iteration as Star Trek Beyond debuts next weekend with a new director and somewhat decreased expectations. Chris Pine’s Captain Kirk and Zachary Quinto’s Spock headline with crew members Zoe Saldana, Karl Urban, Simon Pegg, John Cho, and Anton Yelchin (who tragically passed away last month) back. Main villain duties are handled by Idris Elba.
J.J. Abrams made the first two franchise entries and he’s still on board as executive producer, but as you may know – he departed for another series with the word Star in it. Justin Lin, known for directing parts 3-6 of the Fast and Furious pics, takes over. Abrams was able to reinvigorate Trek world in 2009 when the reboot opened to $75 million with an eventual $257 million domestic tally. The 2013 follow-up, Star Trek Into Darkness, was a bit lower with a $70 million premiere and overall $228 million gross.
It’s my expectation that Beyond will continue the downward trend and it could be more pronounced here. Excitement for this seems muted. In short, the third time may not be the charm in a summer where we’ve seen a number of sequels not match up to their predecessors. My estimate has this opening about 25% below Darkness and the chances of Beyond going beyond $200 million like the first two appears to be out of reach.
Star Trek Beyond opening weekend prediction: $53.4 million
For my Ice Age: Collision Course prediction, click here:
Blogger’s note – on vacation currently so keeping things shorter and sweeter than normal.
The third weekend of July brings the Ghostbusters (albeit a new team) to theaters for the first time in nearly three decades, as Bryan Cranston’s crime drama The Infiltrator opens Wednesday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Ghostbusters may fall short of the #1 spot, based on my projection if The Secret Life of Pets falls just over in the 40s after its massive debut (more on that below).
That should leave Tarzan and Dory fighting it out for the three spot with Mike, Dave and their wedding dates rounding out the top five. My projection for The Infiltrator ($4.6 million Friday to Sunday and $6.1M from Wednesday to Sunday) leaves it outside the high five.
With that – my predicted top 5:
The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $57.6 million
2. Ghostbusters
Predicted Gross: $47.3 million
3. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JULY 8-10)
The Secret Life of Pets smashed projections this weekend with $104.3 million – lapping my $73.7M estimate. That’s good for the sixth highest animated debut ever and what’ll surely be a new franchise.
The Legend of Tarzan stayed in second with $21 million (just above my $19.8M prediction) for a two week tally of $81M. Finding Dory slipped to third after three weeks on top with $20.8 million (a touch under my $23.3M forecast) for a $423M overall haul.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates had a pleasing debut in fourth with $16.6 million, ahead of my prediction of $13.5M.
The Purge: Election Year was fifth with $12.3 million (I said $10.9M) for a ten day total of $58M. Central Intelligence was sixth with $8 million and I incorrectly had outside the top 6. That’s because Steven Spielberg’s The BFG continued its lackluster grosses and dropped further than I anticipated. It was seventh in weekend 2 with $7.8 million – under my $10.6M estimate for a gross of just $38M.
Throwing Bryan Cranston into a dangerous drug dealing world worked out pretty well on the small screen with his iconic role as Walter White on “Breaking Bad”. Next Wednesday, Broad Green Pictures is hoping the same holds true with The Infiltrator.
The 1980s set crime drama has Cranston as a customs agent tasked with the unenviable assignment of going undercover in Pablo Escobar’s drug cartel. Brad Furman, maker of The Lincoln Lawyer and 2013’s unfortunate Runner Runner, directs and the supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan. The studio is obviously hoping audiences will be primed for some adult counter programming. Reviews thus far have been pretty positive with much of the acclaim centered on Cranston. Looking over some recent similar genre titles – there is some hope. 2012’s Savages debuted to $16 million. Last year’s Sicario managed just over $12 million out of the gate.
Those are the very best case scenarios here. I believe The Infiltrator probably won’t manage double digits, even when including the five-day roll out. It seems highly unlikely to recoup its reported $47 million budget. The pic might have been better off as an early fall release and its best hope could be that viewers get their fix with it when it becomes available for home viewing.
The Infiltrator opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
One of the biggest summer 2016 mysteries will be answered next weekend when the Ghostbusters reboot hits theaters. 32 years after the original became a smash hit (with a less beloved sequel that followed five years later), the Columbia Pictures property is a hopeful franchise yet again. This follows years (decades in fact) of rumors about the comedic paranormal team making a return to the big screen. A third go round with the original cast never materialized, so the series has undergone a makeover with Paul Feig taking over directorial duties and a female ghostbustin’ cast donning the iconic uniforms.
Like they did in 1984 – the Ghostbusters have a strong “Saturday Night Live” connection consisting of frequent host Melissa McCarthy and current and former cast members Kristin Wiig, Kate McKinnon, and Leslie Jones. Chris Hemsworth takes over secretarial duties in the part made famous by Annie Potts. OG ‘Busters Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, and Ernie Hudson (along with Sigourney Weaver and Potts) are said to cameo.
This is the fourth collaboration between Feig/McCarthy. They’re previous pics (Bridesmaids, Heat, Spy) have grossed $169M, $159M, and $110M, respectively. This is a whole new ball game that comes with a different set of expectations, however. For starters – the budget is a reported $154 million with a studio likely hoping for a domestic haul in the $200 million range.
That could be a challenge. The word of mouth for Ghostbusters has not been overwhelmingly positive and underwhelming trailers had a little something to do with it. The first trailer even earned headlines for being the most disliked trailer in YouTube’s history. Buzz aside, it’s been marketed relentlessly in recent weeks.
The release poses a whole bunch of questions that won’t be answered until its opening: will younger viewers turn out for a franchise that’s laid dormant for nearly 30 years? Will the negative trailer reaction greatly hinder its potential? If and when the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man returns, is it the same one from the original or his offspring?
Ghostbusters, even with the lengthy time passed between entries, is still a massive brand name and the name alone should get it to a $40 million opening. How much above that number seems to be the real question. I’ll predict that it falls just under $50M in the opening weekend. How it plays out in subsequent weekends will answer the question for the studio as to whether those grosses make them feel good.
Ghostbusters opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million
The second weekend of July brings us two new entries as the animated The Secret Life of Pets and raunchy comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates both debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I have Pets slated to land the 11th highest animated premiere of all time, which will easily be enough to dominate the weekend and end the three-week reign of Dory, which should fall to 2nd.
As for Mike and Dave, I’m anticipating a rather soft opening in the low teens – which should mean it battling for anywhere between fourth and sixth with holdovers The Purge: Election Year (which should suffer a large decline in its second frame after a healthy debut) and The BFG (which hopes to have a somewhat meager decline after a very disappointing opening). My estimates have it holding a slight edge over the holdovers. The Legend of Tarzan, which greatly exceeded the expectations of most, should have third place to itself.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $73.7 million
2. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. The Purge: Election Year
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. The BFG
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (July 1-4)
As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had a three peat at #1 over the long Fourth of July weekend. The pic (which seems well on its way to becoming summer 2016’s biggest earner) took in $41.8 million and $51.4 million over the traditional three-day and holiday four-day weekend, respectively. This topped my predictions of $35.6M and $44M to bring Dory to an overall $381 million – just a bit over $20M under where the current season champ Captain America: Civil War sits.
One of the big stories of the weekend was the larger than expected haul for The Legend of Tarzan. Despite mostly negative reviews and prognostications that it would not perform well, it opened with $38.5 million (three-day) and $46.5 million (four-day), swinging well past my $17.5M and $22M estimates. While Warner Bros. can take solace in its bigger than anticipated debut, its $180M budget still leaves in question its eventual profitability or, most importantly, hopes for a franchise. The weekends ahead and overseas earnings may determine whether Tarzan and Jane come back for a repeat engagement.
Audiences showed they’re still into one particular horror franchise as The Purge: Election Year opened with $31.5 million (3 day) and $36.1 million (4 day) – ahead of my $21.7M and $25.5M forecast. While it will almost certainly suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2, the series is a cash cow for Universal and I would expect a fourth purge to be coming your way soon.
While both of the aforementioned newcomers over performed, the same cannot be said of Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Despite mostly positive reviews, grosses were not big or friendly as this giant disappointment made $18.7 million (3 day) and $22.7 million (4 day) out of the gate. This is under my $26.6M and $33.2M projections.
Independence Day: Resurgence rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame and did not experience a bump due to its namesake holiday weekend. The sequel continued to disappoint with $16.7 million (3 day) and $21.6 million (4 day), just under my $17.8M and $22.8M projections for a ten-day total of just $77 million.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Next Friday brings us Zac Efron’s third raunchy comedy of the year after Dirty Grandpa and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. Neither one of them did particularly well and I’m not convinced that will change here with Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates. The R rated rom com costars Adam DeVine and Anna Kendrick (who made both Pitch Perfect features together) and Audrey Plaza (seen with Efron in Dirty Grandpa).
The pic could benefit from really being the only straight up comedy out there in the marketplace besides Central Intelligence (which will be winding down in weekend #4). Having said that, its best hope might be falling somewhere in between Neighbors 2‘s $21 million opening and Grandpa‘s $11 million start. The summer release slot should at least get it slightly above the latter, which premiered in the January dead zone. I expect a so-so debut while Mike and Dave hope for a more happily ever after existence on the small screen.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million
For my The Secret Life of Pets prediction, click here:
Last year, Universal Pictures animation division had a lovely summer when Minions opened to $115 million with an eventual $336 million gross. The studio is hoping that luck strikes again with The Secret Life of Pets, out next Friday. The 3D animated tale features a voice cast led by Louis C.K., Eric Stonestreet, Kevin Hart, Albert Brooks (pulling double duty this summer with Pixar’s smash Finding Dory), and many others.
Reviews have been kind as it stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. Trailers and TV spots have been solid and it’s likely that plenty of their kids and their parents will tune in. One factor that could prevent it from topping – say – the $75 million opening of Zootopia earlier this year is the competition factor. While Finding Dory will be in its fourth week and slowing down, it should still get some repeat business. Spielberg’s The BFG will be in its second weekend. Still, I think it’ll come darn close.
That said, I expect Pets to fall somewhere in the range of $65-$75 million, which is a pretty common debut for a high-profile animated feature. The 9th through 19th top animated premieres have all started out with those numbers. My prediction puts it right outside the top ten at #11 – right between The Simpsons Movieand Shrek Forever After.
The Secret Life of Pets opening weekend prediction: $73.7 million
For my Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates prediction, click here:
The Fourth of July weekend is here at the box office as three new titles make their debuts over the four day frame: Steven Spielberg’s The BFG, horror three-quel The Purge: Election Year, and adventure pic The Legend of Tarzan. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I have all three earning over $20 million over the long weekend, I don’t expect any of them will manage to top the third weekend of Finding Dory. My estimates reflect a belief that BFG will have a so-so opening, Purge a fairly healthy one albeit under its predecessors, and Tarzan a rather disastrous one.
As for Independence Day: Resurgence in its sophomore weekend, one might think it could hold up well due to… you know, it being Independence Day weekend. I’m not so sure. It had a very lackluster roll out (more on that below) and its weak B Cinemascore grade indicates a rough road ahead.
And with that, my top five predictions (including three and four day projections) for the weekend:
Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $35.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Friday to Monday)
2. The BFG
Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)
3. The Purge: Election Year
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.8 million (Friday to Monday)
5. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JUNE 24-26)
Finding Dory had no problem whatsoever swimming atop the charts as it grossed $72.9 million in weekend #2, just above my $69.8M projection. The Pixar smash has earned $286 million thus far.
20 years ago, Independence Day ruled the summer of 1996. Its long gestating sequel Resurgence? Not so much as it premiered to just $41 million, way below my $63.5M estimate. Here is yet another summer example of a sequel performing well below expectations and this one classifies as a bonafide bomb.
Central Intelligence held up well in its sophomore weekend with $18.2 million for third, ahead of my $15.2M prediction for a two week total of $69 million.
Blake Lively had a nice weekend as her shark tale The Shallows came in well above expectations at #4 with $16.8 million – lapping my $10.4M forecast. Considering its budget is just a reported $17 million, this is a nice size hit for Mrs. Deadpool.
The Conjuring 2 was fifth with $7.7 million for an $86 million tally. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because the news was not so good for Matthew McConaughey as his critically panned Civil War drama Free State of Jones stalled with $7.5 million in sixth, under my $12.7M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Remember three summers ago when the mega-budgeted The Lone Ranger made just $29 million in its first weekend and was a huge disappointment? I give you what could be this year’s Ranger: Warner Bros The Legend of Tarzan, which swings into theaters over July 4th weekend with an estimated $180 million budget. I’m not convinced it’ll reach half its budget domestically when all is said and done.
Based on the iconic character created by Edgar Rice Burroughs, Tarzan is directed by David Yates – the man responsible for the last four Harry Potter pics and this fall’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Alexander Sarsgard is in the title role with Margot Robbie as Jane and Samuel L. Jackson, Christoph Waltz, Djimon Hounsou, and Jim Broadbent among the supporting players.
The biggest hurdle here could be the considerable competition for a family audience. Finding Dory will still be earning a lot in weekend #3 and Steven Spielberg’s The BFG opens the same day. There just doesn’t seem to be much excitement for this and it could get a bit lost in the shuffle. Luckily for Yates, his Beasts project is likely to be a smash. Luckily for Robbie, she’s a just over a month away from Suicide Squad probably doing bang-up business.
I’ll predict a three-day debut in the high teens and a low 20s four-day for the holiday frame. Considering its price tag, that’s bad news at Warner.
The Legend of Tarzan opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)
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