The combination of Dan Brown’s novel, Tom Hanks’s star power, and Ron Howard’s direction melds together for the third time as Inferno hits theaters next weekend. The thriller arrives a decade after The Da Vinci Code and five years after Angels & Demons. Costars for this include Felicity Jones (beginning a busy fall 2016 with A Monster Calls and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story coming up), Ben Foster, Omar Sy, and Irrfan Khan.
When Da Vinci hit theaters in the summer of 2006, it provided Hanks’s largest live-action opening of all time with $77 million and an eventual $217M domestic gross. In summer 2011, follow-up Angels couldn’t achieve those numbers, but did provide Hanks with his #2 biggest opener at $46 million and a final tally of $133M.
I don’t expect Inferno to match the numbers of either of its two predecessors. Critics haven’t been impressed. It currently stands at 23% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, these Brown adaptations have been rather review proof (Code had 25%, Angels 37%). Many sequels in 2016 have posted middling numbers and this franchise certainly displayed a downward trend from 2006 to 2011.
Still, Hanks fans and the author’s fans should turn out to some degree. While I mentioned that this won’t approach the debuts of its aforementioned series entries, it could be in the running for its star’s third highest live-action premiere. In order to do so, it’d need to top the $35 million that Sully (out less than two months ago) achieved.
That seems right around where I expect Inferno to land opening weekend. I’ll predict it does fall a bit under that, preventing a Robert Langdon hat trick for Mr. Hanks.
It’s a particularly crowded weekend at the box office with four new wide releases hitting the multiplexes and another in semi-wide release. We have Tom Cruise’s action sequel Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, horror prequel Ouija: Origin of Evil, and the Zach Galifianakis led comedy (his second this month) Keeping Up with the Joneses. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
To add to the clutter, there’s also the faith-based drama I’m Not Ashamed, which debuts on around 500 screens. I’ve got it pegged at $2 million for its start.
So how will all this shake out? Well, it’s probable that the four newbies will all land in the top 5. I have Reacher rather easily winning the weekend with Ouija as the runner-up. The Accountant (which had a solid debut in the top spot this past weekend) could fall to third with Boo! and Joneses rounding out the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers see my picks for the newcomers:
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back: 50% Too Low, 41% Just About Right, 9% Too High
Ouija: Origin of Evil: 46% Just About Right, 27%, Too High, 27% Too Low
Boo! A Madea Halloween: 33% Too High, 33% Too Low, 33% Just About Right (how about that?!?!)
Keeping Up with the Joneses: 46% Too Low, 39% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Truth be told, this weekend is pretty unpredictable with all the fresh product coming our way. Let’s see what happens, but here’s how I have the top 5:
1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
Predicted Gross: $23.9 million
2. Ouija: Origin of Evil
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
3. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Boo! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Keeping Up with the Joneses
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (October 14-16)
The numbers were quite good for Ben Affleck’s The Accountant as it scored a #1 opening with $24.7 million, easily topping my $17.6M prediction. Even though reviews were quite mixed, audiences liked what they saw it scored an A Cinemascore grade.
The Girl on the Train dipped to second in its sophomore weekend with a 50% drop to $12.2 million (a bit under my $13.4M projection). The Emily Blunt thriller has taken in $46 million thus far.
The stand-up comedy concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now? debuted in third with a decent $11.7 million, not quite matching my $13.5M estimate.
Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children was fourth with $8.9 million (I said $8.2M) to bring its tally to $65 million. Deepwater Horizon rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.8M) and it’s made $49 million.
Last (and least), Max Steel was met with a massive shrug from audience as it opened in 11th place with $2.1 million. I went a bit higher with $3.8M. Look for this one On Demand quite soon.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Tyler Perry just can’t seem to quit his signature Madea character, even though the franchise’s fortunes have dwindled in recent years. And so it is that Boo! A Madea Halloween hits multiplexes next weekend.
This is the ninth (yes, ninth) pic to feature the tough talking granny and sixth to bear her name. Let’s take a look at the numbers for the previous four. 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail was the high mark with a $41 million opening and $90M overall domestic haul. Both 2011’s Madea’s Big Happy Family and 2012’s Madea’s Witness Protection made $25 million out of the gate and then grossed $53M and $65M, respectively. Yet it slowed down a bit with the last one – 2013’s holiday themed A Madea Christmas, which earned $16 million for its roll out and ended with $52M.
The three year lay-off of Madea sightings could hinder this one a bit more and continue the downward trend. After all, if a Christmas pic featuring the character under performed, this likely doesn’t bode well for Halloween Madea. I’ll say low double digits to low teens is all Boo! manages to scare up.
Boo! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
Some familiar faces populate the action comedy Keeping Up with the Joneses, out next Friday. In fact, one of those faces is Zach Galifianakis, who just appeared in Masterminds, which performed poorly. Joneses and Masterminds have this in common: both were delayed by their studios, which usually isn’t a good sign.
This one costars Isla Fisher, Jon Hamm, and Gadot in a tale of a bored suburban couple whose lives are spiced up when a couple of secret agents move next door. Greg Mottola, director of Superbad and Adventureland, is behind the camera.
Keeping Up was originally scheduled to come out in April before its push back. Even with the talent involved, I’m not so sure the marketing campaign has been strong enough (or the trailers quite funny enough) to cause it to break out. There’s not much direct competition in the comedy genre, but there are a host of other pics clamoring for the attention of adult audiences.
This should hover right around low double digits. It should do better than the $6.5 million premiere of Galifianakis’s aforementioned early October effort Masterminds. Unfortunately, that’s not saying a whole lot for this late October release.
Keeping Up with the Joneses opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
Two Halloween frames ago, the low-budget horror flick Ouija had a strong box office game. It opened to $19.8 million on its way to a $50M overall domestic gross. So it’s no surprise that its sequel (or prequel apparently) Ouija: Origin of Evil is in theaters next weekend.
The original cost $5 million. Evil only upped the budget slightly to $6 million, so profitability shouldn’t be an issue for Blumhouse Productions (a studio known for making their projects quickly and cheaply). Mike Flanagan takes over directorial duties from Stiles White and the cast includes Elizabeth Reaser, Annalise Basso, and Henry Thomas (Elliot from E.T.!).
Being the only horror title debuting around Halloween should help here, but I’m not convinced this will open on par with its predecessor. While it’s been a nice 2016 for the genre, Ouija wasn’t exactly considered a classic. A decently fair comparison could be Sinister 2, which opened to just $10 million in the summer of 2015 after the first one made $18 million for its start.
I’ll say Ouija part deux manages a mid teens origin and not high teens.
Ouija: Origin of Evil opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
Nearly four years ago, Tom Cruise had a decent performer in the form of JackReacher, based on a series of thriller novels by Lee Child. The pic opened to $15 million over the Christmas holiday in 2012 and eventually took in a solid $80 million.
Still, that gross was not enough to figure a sequel was automatically warranted. Yet here we are with JackReacher: NeverGoBack, which re-teams Cruise with his LastSamurai director Edward Zwick and costars Cobie Smulders. The director of the its predecessor, Christopher McQuarrie, moved onto make the fifth Mission: Impossible and will reportedly do the sixth.
Whether this earns enough to see a third installment is questionable. Of Cruise’s last five pictures that he’s headlined, Reacher is actually the lowest grosser. The sequel will almost surely make more in its opening weekend, but it’s not exactly a fair comparison. Movies released over the Xmas weekend almost always open lower than they would over a typical weekend and develop longer legs in subsequent winter frames. So while the debut should be larger, I’m not sure it reaches $80M domestic in the long run.
I don’t see this getting much higher than mid 20s or much lower than $20M. My prediction essentially splits the difference.
JackReacher: NeverGoBack opening weekend prediction: $23.9 million
For my Ouija: OriginofEvil prediction, click here:
Four years ago on a Thursday evening, I made the snap decision to start a movie blog. I did it without much thought and with little clue what I wanted it to be.
I knew two things: I love movies and I love writing. And so I penned my first blog post. It’s called “My Love of Movies”. Look at it. Isn’t it adorable?
Yes, maybe the anniversary posts have dwindled in quality as time has passed. With every year comes the familiarity of the blog having become more of a reality. More of everyday life. What I’m writing at this moment is my 1,516th post.
Truth be told – 2016 hasn’t been the best year for movies. Oh, don’t get me wrong. There’s always those moments that I’ve described so lovingly in previous posts. A truly hilarious scene at an animated DMV run by sloths in Zootopia. A comic book adaptation in Deadpool that had moments of raunchy inspiration. And there’s a lot more for me to see in 2016.
Let’s get real for a second, friends. 2016 hasn’t been the best year for lots of things. Political discourse for one, but let us not go THERE.
Sequels. Too many of ’em. Too many we didn’t ask for.
Apparently Zoolander did say all that needed to be said fifteen years ago. Audiences weren’t ready to travel back to the Blair Witch woods. I could go on.
But I won’t. No, where 2016 has been truly sad is in the people we’ve lost. Hans Gruber of Die Hard is one of the greatest film villains in screen history. Alan Rickman brilliantly played him, along with lots of other amazing performances.
Gene Wilder may hold the record for appearing in the most flat out brilliant comedies, not to mention being a part of our collective childhoods in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.
Our ears have been blessed to experience the music of Prince and David Bowie and witness their contributions to film.
I know what you might be thinking… this anniversary post is a bummer, dude!
A silver lining. A consolation point. We will always have film to remind us of the aforementioned artists brilliance.
We will always have the knowledge that the cherished memories we have of them are preserved.
We will always have the knowledge, film lovers that we are, that more memories will be formed with new amazing performers.
Every week on this blog, there are more box office predictions to be estimated. More Oscar Watch movies to be discussed. More reviews to be written.
There’s always more. It’s the NeverEnding Story of film that I described here three years ago:
Are there times it feels stale when the latest unwanted sequel is rolled out? Sure.
Are there moments you wonder where else the superhero genre can possibly go when we get a new one every couple months now? Yes.
And then Star Wars: The Force Awakens turns out to be a pleasure… and not unwanted. And then Deadpool brings something new to the genre.
I remember four years ago tonight writing that first blog post and wondering if I’d have any ideas for a second one. Then I figured out what I wanted the blog to be… and it constantly changes.
I love doing it. I thank you for reading it and I’m humbled to report that 2016 has been the most viewed year so far already! I’ve also tremendously valued my partnership with Fantasy Movie League that began this year and continuing my history of getting out predicted by Joe Giuliano at box office numbers.
2016 has been a challenge for us who love the silver screen and love incredible music. We remember that vile antagonist of John McClane in my favorite action movie ever.
We remember that gentle and hilarious man who brought us into a world of pure imagination.
We remember bathing in the beautiful sounds of the Purple Rain.
And we wait for the next moments of inspiration and all the other emotions that the movies bring.
The October box office rolls along as three new titles debut: Ben Affleck’s CIA thriller The Accountant, stand-up concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now?, and Mattel toy adaptation Max Steel. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, my estimated high teens for Accountant should be enough of a number to make it #1. For #2, I’m looking at an extremely tight race between Mr. Hart and Ms. Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train’s sophomore frame.
Due to a very low prognosis for Max Steel at $3.8 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon should round out the top five.
When it comes to where the readers are at with my newcomer estimates:
The Accountant – 48% Too Low, 43% Just About Right, 9% Too High
Kevin Hart: What Now? – 45% Just About Right, 33% Too High, 22% Too Low
Max Steel – 46% Too Low, 36% Too High, 18% Just About Right
And with that – my take on that top 5 for the weekend ahead:
1. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
2. Kevin Hart: What Now?
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
3. The Girl on the Train
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 7-9)
As expected, The Girl on the Train topped the charts, rolling in with $24.5 million. This is a pretty decent debut that did come in below my $28.2M forecast. However, its middling B Cinemascore grade indicates plenty of audience members weren’t wild about it.
Last weekend’s champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children dropped to second with $15.1 million, a bit ahead of my $14.3M projection. The 10 day total stands at $51 million.
In its sophomore frame, Deepwater Horizon was third with $11.5 million – in line with my $11.9M estimate for a $38 million total.
The Magnificent Seven was fourth with $9 million (higher than my too clever $7.7M prediction) and has earned $75 million.
Storks rounded out the high five at $8.2 million (I said $9.3M) and it’s earned an underwhelming $49 million.
Lackluster newbies were sixth and seventh. Once considered a strong Oscar contender, the fading The Birth of a Nation disappointed with $7 million. I went higher with $10.5M.
Teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life was right under with only $6.8 million (I said $7.8M).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Mattel toys are being brought to the big screen next weekend when Max Steel debuts. The superhero tale has a reported budget of just $15-$20 million and that’s probably a good thing for its sake.
Steel features Ben Winchell in the lead alongside Ana Villafane, Andy Garcia, and Maria Bello and some CG aliens. The marketing campaign for this seems pretty darn quiet and one wonders if its studio has much faith in it.
A much higher profile Mattel related property will arrive later when Justin Lin directs a pic based on the Hot Wheels line. As far as this one goes, unless there’s a legion of Max Steel lovers clamoring for a barely marketed adaptation, I see this debuting poorly and fading quickly.
Max Steel opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Kevin Hart has been busy at the box office in 2016. Ride Along 2 debuted in January with an overall gross of $90 million (shy of its predecessor, but not bad). This summer came Central Intelligence, his team-up with The Rock that marked his second highest grosser ever at $127 million (after the first Ride Along, which made $134M). While the comedian has broken through on the silver screen in a major way, he hasn’t forgotten his stand-up roots. That leads to Kevin Hart: What Now?, out next weekend, which presents his latest comedy tour with a show taped in 2015 in Philadelphia.
For comparisons sake, it’s been three years since Mr. Hart released his last stand-up pic theatrically. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain had a $10 million premiere with a $32M eventual domestic haul. Comedy concerts released in multiplexes are a rare breed, but there’s some hope this could outshine Explain. The most obvious reason is that Hart has become a much bigger movie star in the three years that have transpired. On the other hand, moviegoers know even more now that Now will likely be available for their viewing pleasure via streaming quite soon.
Add that up and I believe What Now? will manage to outpace Explain for a debut in the low to mid double digits.
Kevin Hart: What Now? opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 