Lionsgate Films is hoping American Assassin successfully targets action fans when it debuts next weekend. The pic features Maze Runner star Dylan O’Brien as a CIA recruit teamed with a Cold War vet played by Michael Keaton. Sanaa Lathan and Taylor Kitsch costar in this effort from director Michael Cuesta (who last made the Jeremy Renner thriller Kill the Messenger).
The biggest draw here should be Keaton, who’s experienced a genuine career resurgence that began with back to back Best Picture winners Birdman and Spotlight in 2014 and 2015 and continued this summer with his well-received villainous turn in Spider-Man: Homecoming.
Assassin also has the benefit of being the only straight up action pic geared towards a male audience. That said, there is still competition with It‘s second weekend and mother!‘s first.
Reviews (not out at press time) could cause a revision here, but I’ll project Assassin ends up hitting low to possibly mid teens.
American Assassin opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
Darren Aronofsky’s mother! received quite the splashy debut at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and stateside audiences will render their verdict on September 15th. Oscar winners Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem headline the psychological horror thriller with a supporting cast including Ed Harris, Michelle Pfeiffer, Kristin Wiig, and Domhnall Gleeson.
Critical reaction from mother! has been something to witness, with some reviews labeling it a masterwork from the Requiem for a Dream and Black Swan auteur. Other notices haven’t gone that far, but all seem to agree it will push the audience’s buttons with its out there approach. The pic stands at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes currently.
Here are the pluses as I see them when it comes to potential box office performance. First, it’s headlined by Jennifer Lawrence and that should be a draw for some. Second, the buzz surrounding it could create a “you have to witness this thing” for yourself type of vibe.
One minus is a considerable one. The It factor. The Stephen King adaptation is riding its own higher decibel wave of chatter and should still be garnering big grosses in its sophomore weekend. It could easily divert some moviegoers away from this.
I’ll predict mother! begins with a low to mid teens output and it’ll be fascinating to see how it progresses or regresses from there (its Cinemascore rating could be an interesting indicator).
The fall box office officially is underway this weekend and it can’t come soon enough after a truly lackluster end to the summer season. This season is looking to kick off in record breaking fashion with the release of Stephen King adapted horror pic It as well as the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Riding a wave of solid buzz coupled with its eerie TV spots and trailers, It is shaping up to be an event film. My estimate easily makes it the highest September debut of all time and biggest horror opening in history.
Home Again should easily be #2 considering the extreme lack of competition, but the question is how effective it will be as counter programming for female audiences. I have it just under a teens debut as it hopes to leg out in subsequent weekends.
The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers. The Hitman’s Bodyguard three week reign on top will be over. Last weekend’s #2 Annabelle: Creation may suffer the largest decline because of the It factor.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. It
Predicted Gross: $65.4 million
2. Home Again
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. TheHitman’sBodyguard
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. WindRiver
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (September 1-4)
As anticipated, the summer movie season closed with a whimper. That said, most of the holdovers help up better than my estimates while two newcomers couldn’t manage to find an audience. Even though my forecasts were low, this was still the weakest Labor Day frame in 17 years.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard placed first for the third weekend in a row with $13.2 million, managing to easily surpass my $8.9M projection. It ends its run in first place with $57 million total.
Annballe: Creation was second with $9.1 million – topping my meager $5.7M estimate for a tally of $90 million.
WindRiver continued a laudible run, climbing to third with $7.8 million (I was under with $5.1M). It’s made $20 million thus far.
Animated Leap! was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.4M) to see its total jump to $12 million.
Dunkirk rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, ahead of my $4.2M prediction. The Oscar hopeful has amassed $180 million.
Aforementioned newbies both bombed. Latin comedy HazloComoHombre earned a measly $1.4 million (I went higher with $3.5M). Long delayed Alicia Vikander period piece TulipFever fared even worse at $1.3 million (I predicted $1.9M). Those debuts were good for 22nd and 24th place, respectively. Ouch.
Reese Witherspoon is back in rom com territory when Home Again debuts in theaters next weekend. The Open Road Films release casts the actress as a single mom who allows three college age men to bunk at her place and hijinks and hopeful hilarity ensue. The pic marks the directorial debut of Hallie Meyers-Shyer (who also penned the screenplay), daughter of Nancy Meyers who’s made similar genre titles such as Something’s Gotta Give, The Holiday, It’s Complicated, and The Intern. Costars include Nat Wolff, Jon Rudnitsky, Pico Alexander, Michael Sheen, and Candice Bergen.
The film should have little trouble placing second on the charts after the box office juggernaut that is likely to be It. This could potentially serve as decent counter programming for female audiences who aren’t feeling the clown horror. That said, Witherspoon’s drawing power has waned a bit through the years and the actress is past the days when she experienced $30M+ openers like Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Her last headliner was the poorly reviewed Hot Pursuit, which debuted to just under $14M in the summer of 2015. She has gotten a bit of recent exposure with her Emmy nominated turn in the HBO miniseries Big Little Lies.
Besides It, it could help Home that there’s little in the way of competition. Due to that factor, I’ll say this manages to top single digits.
Home Again opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
It’s been a rough stretch at the box office in recent weekends and Hollywood’s prescription seems to be… send in the clowns! That happens on September 8th when It unleashes itself into multiplexes. It could set some records along the way.
Based on Stephen King’s acclaimed novel, the Warner Bros pic has been building steady momentum through its creepily effective trailers and TV spots. There’s an entire generation of moviegoers who recall the 1990 miniseries where Tim Curry portrayed demented clown Pennywise. This time around, it’s Swedish actor Bill Skarsgard donning the makeup. Andy Muschietti, who made the well-regarded 2013 horror flick Mama, is behind the camera. The rest of the youthful cast deemed The Losers includes Jaeden Lieberher, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Sophia Lillis, Chosen Jacobs, Jack Dylan Grazer, and Finn Wolfhard (who you may recognize from Netflix’s Stranger Things).
As mentioned, the current rough stretch on the box office charts looks to demolished by this killer clown. Tracking has been rising in recent weeks with It, so much so that the following records could be done away with. The current all-time September best debut is 2015’s Hotel Transylvania 2 with $48 million. When it comes to horror titles in general, that record is held by 2011’s Paranormal Activity 3 at $52 million. If you throw 2001’s Hannibal into that category, that gets you to $58 million.
The current financial slumber in theaters should only help It break out in a major way. Genre enthusiasts should eat this up and crossover appeal based on buzz and solid early word-of-mouth should be significant. I’m predicting It will break all the records mentioned and float north of $60 million for its start.
After this weekend’s incredibly sluggish box office frame (more on that below), Hollywood is more or less taking the Labor Day holiday off. Only two pictures are debuting and neither is a wide release. They are the Spanish language comedy Hazlo Como Hombre and oft-delayed costume drama Tulip Fever. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Even though Hombre is on 200 screens less than Tulip, I’m predicting it will have a higher opening. My $3.5 million estimate for it outshines my $1.9 million one for Tulip. Either way, my takes on the newbies put them both outside the top 5.
The good news (if you can call it that) for returnees is that this particular weekend usually sees very small declines and even increases from the previous weekend. That should mean a return engagement on top for The Hitman’s Bodyguard for the third time.
There could be a legitimate battle for #2 depending on the fluctuations of holdovers like Annabelle: Creation, Leap!, WindRiver, Dunkirk, or a potentially higher Hombre gross than I’m saying.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the holiday weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 13%)
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. Leap!
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing an increase of 15%)
4. WindRiver
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing an increase of 11%)
5. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing an increase of 10%)
Box Office Results (August 25-27)
It was, to put it mildly, a terrible weekend at the box office. Between the lack of any high-profile releases, a hurricane in Texas, and a boxing match that captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night, the top 12 sunk to its lowest level since late September 2001. Obviously, this was at a time when the country was still reeling from the 9/11 tragedy. It will clearly take It the following weekend to wake the box office from its slumber because it isn’t happening over Labor Day.
As anticipated, The Hitman’s Bodyguard repeated at #1 with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.5M estimate for a two-week total of $39M. Look for it to three peat this weekend in another disastrous frame.
Annabelle: Creation held the runner-up spot again with $7.6 million, on pace with my $7.7M projection for a $78M overall tally.
Animated Leap! debuted in third with a middling $4.7 million, a bit above my $4.1M take. The production did manage an A Cinemascore grade, so it’ll hope for a fair Labor Day gross.
I incorrectly left the Jeremy Renner thriller WindRiver outside the top 5, but it expanded its screen count to place fourth and made $4.6 million to bring its earnings to $10M.
LoganLucky was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $4M) and it’s lackluster total is $14M.
Dunkirk was sixth with $3.9 million (I estimated $4.2M) for $172M overall.
Other debuts failed to garner eyeballs. BirthoftheDragon was 8th with $2.7 million compared to my $2.9M projection. Faith based drama AllSaints faltered in 16th with $1.5 million. I was more generous with a $2.6M prediction.
Hollywood is pretty much taking the Labor Day weekend off and the highest debut (unless Tulip Fever blossoms which is unlikely) could well be Pantelion’s Hazlo Como Hombre. The Spanish language comedy comes from a studio that is used to releasing their product on this particular weekend to robust results.
Four years ago, Pantelion’s studio put out Instructions Not Included and shocked box office prognosticators with a $10.3 million four-day holiday gross. Last year during the same frame, No Manches Frida took in $4.6 million. The release pattern for both pics were similar: put them out in 300-something theaters and watch the high per screen averages roll in.
The studio had a huge hit earlier this year with How to Be a Latin Lover, which debuted in over 1000 theaters and made over $12 million for its start. Hombre is slated to premiere on approximately 370 screens. Not every Pantelion pic has been a success, as June’s 3 Idiotas stumbled with just north of $600,000 on the typical 300ish screens.
So where’s that put this one? Well, it’s unpredictable when you look over the history, but I’ll say this performs similarly yet a bit lower to No Manches Frida in the $3-potentially $5M range.
Hazlo Como Hombre opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note (08/25): The reported theater count of only 600 screens has caused my revision to be lowered to $1.9 million.
There’s only new picture opening over the long Labor Day weekend and it’s unlikely to blossom into any sort of hit. Justin Chadwick’s Tulip Fever finally makes it to the big screen with a cast that includes Oscar winner Alicia Vikander, Dane DeHaan, Jack O’Connell, Judi Dench, Christoph Waltz, Zach Galifianakis, Matthew Morrison, and Cara Delevingne.
The reported $25 million production from the Weinstein Company has had a long and delayed journey to the silver screen. Tulip was shot over three years ago and was originally slated to debut in theaters last summer before the studio’s financial woes got in the way. It was then rescheduled for February of this year. Finally, it was supposed to debut this coming weekend before the Weinstein Company chose to release it wide (with little fanfare) just days ago as the sole release over the holiday weekend.
This does not bode well for its chances stateside. Even though there’s little competition, I’d say its best scenario is earning the $6.1 million captured by last year’s Labor Day release The Light Between Oceans (also starring Vikander). However, I’m not convinced it even manages that (a theater count when released will help). For now, I’ll say a debut between $4-$5 million is my diagnosis.
Tulip Fever opening weekend prediction: $1.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The doldrums of the late August box office eclipses theaters this weekend as four new entries are scheduled to open wide: animated Leap!, Christian themed drama All Saints, martial arts pic Birth of the Dragon, and Robert Pattinson heist thriller Good Time. You can look directly at my individual prediction posts here:
As you can see, I only have one of the newbies over $4 million (ouch). Good Time is a bit of a head scratcher, since there’s no theater count yet (my estimate for it could easily change). I only have it at $1.5 million currently.
With my $2.9 million prediction for Dragon and $2.6 million prognosis for Saints, that means I only have Leap! managing a top 5 debut in fourth.
That means holdovers dominate the remainder of my picks with The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily repeating at number one and Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, and Dunkirk filling the remaining slots.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
3. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
4. Leap!
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. LoganLucky
Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
Box Office Results (August 18-20)
TheHitman’sBodyguard easily topped the box office and opened at the highest end of expectations with $21.3 million compared to my lower $16.7M estimate. The Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy could well be #1 for three weeks, considering the extreme lack of competition.
Annabelle: Creation dropped to second with $15.6 million to bring its pleasing total to $64 million. I predicted just a tad lower at $14.6M.
Despite positive reviews and considerable star power, Steven Soderbergh’s heist comedy LoganLucky opened with lackluster results in third with $7.6 million, below my $10.5M prediction.
Dunkirk was fourth with $6.6 million (I said $7M) for a $165 million overall tally.
TheNutJob2: NuttybyNature was fifth in its second weekend with $5 million, a bit above my $4.5M forecast. Its total is $17 million.
A long way from Twilight, Robert Pattinson is receiving critical acclaim for his latest pic and it is heist drama Good Time, which expands nationwide this weekend. The A24 release comes from directors Ben and Josh Sadfie with a supporting cast featuring Barkhad Abdi and Jennifer Jason Leigh.
The film premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to solid notices and it stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, with a performance from Mr. Pattinson that’s drawn raves. Over the previous weekend, it drew a commendable $165,000 on just 20 screens.
Doing an opening weekend estimate for Good Time is a little tricky since I don’t have a theater count at press time (in other words, this prediction could change). I’m going to assume it’s on maybe 600-700 screens. For now, I’ll say it manages to reach a bit between $1-$2M out of the gate.
Good Time opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million
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