Blogger’s Note part 2 (02/20): I am once again revising my estimate. Now to $10.4 million
Blogger’s Note (02/15): I’m losing faith a bit for Annihilation debut. Revising down from $14.4 million to $12.4 million
Three years ago, screenwriter Alex Garland made his directorial debut with the acclaimed sci-fi pic Ex Machina, which garnered an Original Screenplay Oscar nomination and won for Visual Effects. Next Friday, his sophomore effort Annihilation debuts. Based on the novel from James VanderMeer, Natalie Portman stars in the $55 million production combining sci-fi, horror, and action elements. Costars include Jennifer Jason Leigh, Gina Rodriguez, Tessa Thompson, and Machina lead Oscar Isaac.
While Annihilation is hitting theaters in the U.S., Canada, and China, it’s slated to roll out on Netflix in other international markets. Early critical buzz is pretty solid so far, but it could struggle to break out stateside. Audiences are likely to still be flocking to Black Panther, which will be in its second weekend of release (and doing its own annihilation of competitors).
Fans of Machina, the genre, and Portman may be enough to get this between $10 million on the low end and $15 million on the high end. I’ll project roughly in the lower end of that range.
Annihilation opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million
Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): And my Panther estimate continues to go up. Now at $193.8 million
Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of their premieres, I’m making the following adjustments: revising Panther up from $168.8M to $178.8M; Early Man from $5.4M to $5.7M; and Samson from $2.2M to $3.1M.
It should be a commanding weekend for Marvel’s Black Panther as it opens over President’s Day in what could be a record-breaking February debut. We also have the stop-motion animated feature Early Man premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Panther sprints into theaters with red hot word-of-mouth and sizzling reviews. The film appears to have entered into true event picture territory and it has sky high expectations. In order to blast through the current February record, it would need to eclipse Deadpool from two years ago, which also opened over the four-day POTUS frame. That movie earned $132 million from Friday to Sunday and $152 million when including Monday. My Panther estimate has Chadwick Boseman and company exceeding that.
I’m not expecting much from Early Man, which will experience severe competition from the second weekend of Peter Rabbit (likely to remain #2) and all the kiddos flocking to Panther. My $5.7 million forecast for it puts it outside the top 5.
I didn’t do an individual prediction post for Samson, a Biblical drama from Pure Flix that’s slated to open on around 1200 screens. I’ve got it pegged at just $3.1 million.
As mentioned, I see Rabbit retaining the number two spot while Fifty Shades Freed seems likely to drop to third. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The 15:17 to Paris should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the four-day holiday weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $193.8 million
2. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $17 million
4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. The 15:17 to Paris
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (February 9-11)
Fifty Shades Freed closed out the franchise this weekend with the lowest debut of the three features, as anticipated. The final pairing of Anastasia and Christian took in $38.5 million, right on target with my $38.4 million estimate. The good news for Fifty? Its total this weekend including international sales brought the series overall to a billion dollars worldwide.
Peter Rabbit hopped into the second position with a strong $25 million, eclipsing my $18.7 million prediction. The family friendly tale (or tail if you will) looks to continue its impressive grosses in its sophomore frame where it should experience a smallish dip.
Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris opened in third to a middling $12.5 million, just below my $13.1 million projection. Mostly negative reviews likely didn’t help.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was fourth with $10 million (I was lower at $8.6 million) for a grand tally of $365 million.
The Greatest Showman rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was in line with my $6.3 million forecast) for $146 million total.
StudioCanal is hoping family audiences will wish to travel to the Stone Age when their stop-motion animated tale Early Man debuts next weekend. Directed by Nick Park, maker of Chicken Run and numerous Wallace & Gromit efforts, the pic features the voices of Eddie Redmayne, Tom Hiddleston, Maisie Williams, and Timothy Spall.
Expected to debut on approximately 2200 screens at press time, Early Man could have trouble finding its intended audience. There is direct competition in the form of the second weekend of Peter Rabbit. Also Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should still be making some dough. Most importantly, plenty of kids will be preoccupied with what should be a massive opening for Black Panther.
I’ll project Early Man struggles in its four-day Presidents Day weekend roll out.
Early Man opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): For the second time today, my Panther prediction is going up. Now at $193.8M
Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my Panther estimate up by $10 million – from $168.8M to $178.8M
Marvel Studios is back in business next Friday and it’s likely to be a massive cause of celebration for the studio when BlackPanther opens. Rolling out over the four-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, Chadwick Boseman plays the title character who we first saw in 2016’s CaptainAmerica: CivilWar. Ryan Coogler, who helmed the acclaimed Creed, directs. Costars include Creed himself, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, Letitia Wright, Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett, Winston Duke, Sterling K. Brown, and Andy Serkis.
The reported $200 million has been garnering buzz for some time and it’s reaching a fever pitch. Reviews were released today and it sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Earlier today, I wrote a post about its chances at Oscar attention, which I believe to be quite real (even considering the extremely early release date on the calendar):
Two years ago on this same weekend, Deadpool rode a similar wave of sizzling word of mouth to a $152 million opening, which is the current record for February. BlackPanther could be poised to top it with a more friendly PG-13 rating and the vaunted Disney marketing machine behind it.
I’ll project Panther sprints to a new record for the month and jump starts yet another franchise bonanza for the MCU.
BlackPanther opening weekend prediction: $193.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
After a sluggish frame to start the month of February, things should be looking up this weekend as three higher profile titles debut: threequel Fifty Shades Freed, animated/live-action pic Peter Rabbit, and Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, the trio of newcomers should rather easily populate numbers 1-3 with Freed leading the charge, albeit with less dollars coming in than either of its predecessors. Rabbit should sit in the two spot with 15:17 third.
That means Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should fall to fourth and I’ll project The Greatest Showman remains in the top five with its continued smallish declines.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. The 15:17 to Paris
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (February 2-4)
In a quiet Super Bowl weekend, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle swung back into the top spot with $10.9 million, a bit below my $12.4 million forecast. The mega hit has amassed $352 million overall.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure dropped to second with $10.4 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection for a two-week tally of $40 million.
The weekend’s only newcomer, Helen Mirren horror pic Winchester, debuted in third to a mediocre $9.3 million. I was close with $9.1 million. It did manage to garner the best per screen average of the top five. That said, look for it to drop big next weekend.
The Greatest Showman was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $7.9 million) for $137 million total.
The Post was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It made $5.2 million and it stands at $67 million.
Hostiles was sixth at $5.1 million (I said $5.8 million) for $20 million in sales.
Blogger’s Note (02/08): I am revising my prediction from $15.1 million to $13.1 million
Recounting the 2015 attempted train attack en route to France’s capital city, Clint Eastwood’s The15:17toParis hits theaters next weekend. The true life thriller uses the interesting tactic of having the real life heroes that thwarted the attack (Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos, and Spencer Stone) playing themselves. They’re alongside familiar actors including Jenna Fischer, Judy Greer, and Jaleel White (known to you and I as Urkel from TV’s “Family Matters”).
Just over three years ago, Mr. Eastwood found his greatest box office success with AmericanSniper. This pic isn’t expected to gross anywhere near that, but it could manage to bring in an older audience who will have little to do with the two competitors debuting against it (FiftyShadesFreed and PeterRabbit).
I could see 15:17 opening right around its title numbers and comparable to what 12Strong made out of the gate just a couple weeks ago.
The15:17toParis opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
Based on the well-known works of Beatrix Potter, Sony Pictures is hoping family audiences will hop to Peter Rabbit when it debuts next weekend. The mix of live-action and CG animation features the voices of James Corden in the title role along with Daisy Ridley, Margot Robbie, and Sia. Familiar faces physically present include Domhnall Gleeson, Rose Byrne, and Sam Neill. Will Gluck, maker of Easy A and the recent Annie remake, directs.
Rabbit could be in a solid position to attract kids and their parents now that box office juggernaut Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is finally winding down. Many are still familiar with the source material that first appeared in literary form in 1902.
I’ll estimate that the reported $50 million production makes a bit under $20 million out of the gate.
Peter Rabbit opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million
For the third Valentine’s Day frame in the past four years, the romantic adventures of Anastasia and Christian will be on display for moviegoers when Fifty Shades Freed opens next weekend. Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan return with James Foley (who made previous entry Fifty Shades Darker) directing. Costars include Kim Basinger, Eric Johnson, Marcia Gay Harden, and Rita Ora.
This is the third and final chapter of the franchise based on E.L. James’s sultry bestsellers. The trailer reminds us to not miss the climax (get it?). The series has been a popular one for Universal Pictures, but there was a significant dip between 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey and 2017 sequel Darker. Three years ago, Grey premiered to $85 million with an eventual $166 million domestic haul. Darker managed $46 million for its start with $114 million overall.
Freed appears likely to follow that downward trend, but its drop shouldn’t be nearly as pronounced as the last one. Current estimates have this hovering around the $40 million mark and that seems about right. I’ll say it falls just under that as fans bid farewell to Mr. and Mrs. Grey.
Fifty Shades Freed opening weekend prediction: $38.4 million
Blogger’s Note (01/31): I am revisiting my Winchester prediction from $14.1 million to $9.1 million, which means I’m estimating it goes from first to third.
In what should be a rather lackluster weekend with the Super Bowl being played and the month’s heavy hitters waiting in the wings, Helen Mirren led horror pic Winchester is the only wide release hitting screens as February arrives. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My low teens predictions for Winchester still might be enough for it to nab the top spot, though it could find itself in a battle with both Jumanji and current top spot holder Maze Runner: The Death Cure.
The Greatest Showman and Hostiles (coming off a stronger than expected wide release) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
3. Winchester
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Hostiles
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (January 26-28)
It took nearly a month, but Maze Runner: The Death Cure became the first 2018 title to become #1 at the box office. The third entry in the YA action franchise took in $24.1 million, a bit ahead of my $22.8 million projection. That’s under the previous two entries (which both topped $30 million out of the gate), but decent considering the two-year plus layover between parts 2 and 3.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dropped to second after three weeks on top with $16.1 million (ahead of my $14.9 million forecast) for $337 million overall.
The lone surprise of the weekend would be Hostiles with Christian Bale, which greatly exceeded expectations with $10.1 million in third place. The well-reviewed Western expanded its theater count and placed on the high-end of estimates. I didn’t even have it in my top 5 and predicted a meager $4.8 million. Oops.
The Greatest Showman was fourth with $9.5 million (I said $8.5 million) for a total of $126 million.
The Post rounded out the top five with $9.1 million (I said $9.4 million) for $58 million overall.
Finally, I had 12 Strong in the top five but Hostiles messed that equation up. It grossed $8.6 million compared to my $8.9 million prediction for $28 million in two weeks.
Blogger’s Note (01/31): I am revisiting my Winchester prediction from $14.1 million to $9.1 million
Helen Mirren goes into horror mode next weekend with the release of Winchester. The supernatural period piece comes from Michael and Peter Spierig, directors of Daybreakers and last year’s Jigsaw. Costars include Jason Clarke, Angus Sampson, and Sarah Snook.
Subtitled The House that Ghosts Built, the Lionsgate release is hoping to bring in genre fans. Horror pics have experienced a good run over the last several months and that could propel this to a more than anticipated debut.
That said, while there’s no competition opening against it, there is a certain football game between New England and Philadelphia on Sunday. The Super Bowl weekend is typically not a robust one at the box office as February heavy hitters wait in the wings.
I’ll project a low to mid teens debut.
Winchester opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million
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