Next weekend we will find out if Geostorm is a direct hit or disaster at the box office… or somewhere in the middle. The disaster pic marks the directorial debut of Dean Devlin, known most for producing efforts from Roland Emmerich, including Stargate,Independence Day and its sequel, and 1998’s Godzilla. Gerard Butler headlines a cast that features Ed Harris, Abbie Cornish, Jim Sturgess, Andy Garcia, and Richard Schiff.
The film was originally scheduled by Warner Bros for release over a year and a half ago. That kind of delay usually doesn’t inspire confidence. There are also movies debuting against it that could siphon some audience away, including Only the Brave and The Snowman.
I’ll predict Geostorm doesn’t even reach the teens for a muted start.
Geostorm opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (10/18/17): I am revising my prediction for The Snowman from $10.8 million down to $8 million
Next weekend, Universal Pictures will find out whether The Snowman gets a hot or icy reception at the box office. The thriller is based on a bestseller and stars Michael Fassbender as a detective chasing a serial killer who goes by the title. Tomas Alfredson, maker of critically acclaimed pics Let the Right One In and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, directs. The supporting cast includes Rebecca Ferguson, Charlotte Gainsbourg, J.K. Simmons, Toby Jones, Chloe Sevigny, James D’Arcy, and Val Kilmer.
While the director’s previous efforts have met with critical approval, reviews for this aren’t so good. It stands at just 27% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Additionally, there are other pics opening directly against it that could compete for an adult crowd like Only the Brave and Geostorm.
The marketing has attempted to stress a horror vibe, so it’s only hope could be genre fans coming out. That said, I’ll estimate this just manages to reach double digits for a rather cold opening.
The Snowman opening weekend prediction: $8 million
For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:
OnlytheBrave opens next weekend and it stands the best shot at being the second highest grosser of the five newbies hitting screens after Boo2! AMadeaHalloween. Joseph Kosinski, director of Tron: Legacy and Oblivion, is behind the lens for this true-life action/drama focused on a crew taking on devastating wildfires. Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges, James Badge Dale, Taylor Kitsch, Jennifer Connelly, and Andie MacDowell are among the cast.
There will some competition for adults and action fans with premieres like TheSnowman and Geostorm. However, Brave could have a minor leg up with its solid reviews and the unfortunate timeliness of its storyline.
I’ll say a debut at $10 million is probable.
OnlytheBrave opening weekend prediction: $10 million
For my Boo2! AMadeaHalloween prediction, click here:
Tyler’s Perry Madea character looks to say hello to the #1 spot again next weekend when Boo 2! A Madea Halloween debuts. As is the case with these ventures, the star both directs and writes. Costars include Cassi Davis and Patrice Lovely.
On this same weekend last year, A Madea Halloween opened a bit above expectations with $28 million, ruling the box office for two weeks and grossing $73 million overall. The uptick was a bit of a surprise since the previous holiday themed pic A Madea Christmas earned the lowest opening ($16M) of the six flicks carrying the Madea moniker and lowest overall domestic gross ($52M).
Last October proved audiences still had love for the character and I don’t see that subsiding much here. Sequelitis may come into small effect, but a smallish decline of close to 20% under its predecessor still gets this in the low to mid 20s and that should be good enough for the top spot.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
Five years ago tomorrow night, I decided on a whim to start this here movie blog. Truth be told, I had no clue what it would turn into or if I would even keep up with it.
This now marks the 1,897th blog post. And five years later – I know what it’s turned into for now. Primarily, the blog is focused on box office predictions, Oscar predictions and movie reviews.
There are deviations on occasion. I’ll even dip into my love of music. Sadly some of that has been due to the immeasurable loss of icons lately like Prince and David Bowie and Tom Petty (I’m still considering a top 25 songs for that genius).
Five years from now – who knows? That’s the joy of looking at a blank page nearly 2000 times and just starting. I love movies. I love writing. It’s that simple.
The blog has forged a great relationship with Fantasy Movie League, a remarkable website in which I’m fortunate to write a weekly box office predictions column for. It’s a terrific community with dedicated participants.
Time is a funny thing. 20 years ago today – Paul Thomas Anderson’s brilliant BoogieNights opened. There is a solid argument to be made that no more impressive movie has been made since. There’s a scene involving a drug deal gone bad, a gloriously unhinged Alfred Molina, and Chinese firecrackers that ranks among the most memorable film scenes I’ve ever witnessed.
The joy of movies. They never stop. There’s always more to discover. More to study. More to speculate about. It’s a beautiful reel on continuous play for over 100 years. That’s a lot of time for the most timeless form of entertainment; the real American and worldwide pastime.
I’ve passed a lot of time writing this blog over the last half decade and loved every minute of it. Thanks for reading!
After a weekend where no new releases performed particularly well, we could be in for a similar situation this weekend. Though one newbie should manage to just clear $20 million. We have low-budget horror pic HappyDeathDay, Jackie Chan action thriller TheForeigner, and Chadwick Boseman led biopic Marshall debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The October Friday the 13th should bode rather well for HappyDeathDay. With the underwhelming performance of BladeRunner2049 (more on that below), I have Death slated for a first place showing in the low 20s and it could climb a bit higher.
Blade should slip to the runner-up position with TheForeigner in third. I have holdovers It and TheMountainBetweenUs rounding out the top five.
Marshall is only premiering on approximately 800 screens and my $4 million estimate for it puts it well outside the top 5. There is another apparent wide debut with ProfessorMarston & theWonderWomen. It stars Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall in the true life story of the man who created Wonder Woman. While it’s timed to capitalize on the summer’s biggest blockbuster, I’ll say it only manages maybe $2 million (there’s no theater count so I may revise that figure).
And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:
1. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
2. BladeRunner2049
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. TheForeigner
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. It
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. TheMountainBetweenUs
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 46%)
BoxOfficeResults (October6–8)
As mentioned, pricey long time in the making sequel BladeRunner2049 stalled in its opening weekend with $32.7 million, well below all expectations including my own $52.1M forecast. Despite glowing reviews, audiences simply didn’t come out for it as expected.
The Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster romance TheMountainBetweenUs debuted in second with a so-so $10.5 million, just above my $9.2M prediction.
It was third with $9.9 million (I said $9.3M) as it crossed the triple century mark at $305 million overall.
MyLittlePony: TheMovie was fourth out of the gate with just $8.8 million, under my $10.9M estimate.
Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I predicted $8M) for $80 million total.
In weekend #2, Tom Cruise’s AmericanMade fell to sixth with $8.4 million compared to my $8.9M projection. It’s earned $30 million in ten days.
Chadwick Boseman is back in biopic form next weekend when Marshall debuts. The courtroom drama finds the actor playing a young Thurgood Marshall, who would eventually becomes the nation’s first African-American Supreme Court Justice. Reginald Hudlin directs with a supporting cast that includes Josh Gad, Kate Hudson, Dan Stevens, Sterling K. Brown, and James Cromwell.
This is Boseman’s third go-round playing a high-profile real figure. In 2013, he starred as Jackie Robinson in 42, which opened to $27 million. The following year, he was the Godfather of Soul James Brown in Get On Up, which debuted with $13 million.
In my view, Marshall would need some Oscar buzz and great reviews to make an impact with audiences. It doesn’t appear that will be the case. My verdict is a mid single digits premiere for the Open Roads feature.
After a rather lengthy layoff from headlining any major stateside projects, Jackie Chan is back in theaters next weekend with The Foreigner. The action thriller finds the martial arts star in full revenge mode after his daughter is murdered. Pierce Brosnan costars and Martin Campbell (best known for restarting the 007 franchise in Goldeneye with Brosnan and Casino Royale with Daniel Craig directs.
Chan’s last significant release in the U.S. was the 2010 hit remake of The Karate Kid. We’re 20 years past the point when he was kicking out releases every few months. The best comps for the opening weekend may not belong with Chan, but with Brosnan. His last couple appearances were 2014’s The November Man at $7.9 million and 2015’s No Escape with $8.1 million.
I’ll predict The Foreigner gets a bit above that, but doesn’t reach double digits.
The Foreigner opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Timing is sometimes everything at the box office and that factor could boost Happy Death Day to a lively opening. The pic is essentially a horror version of Groundhog Day with a woman waking on the same day that happens to be the date of her demise. Christopher B. Landon, who last made Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, directs with a cast made up of relative unknowns including Jessica Rothe and Israel Broussard.
Death comes from Blumhouse Productions, which specializes in low-budget genre flicks. 2017 has been a very happy year for the studio, with fright pic breakouts Split and Get Out. The budget is reportedly just a teeny $5 million. Regarding its release date, it has the benefit of premiering on a Friday the 13th in October (a good month for the genre). It should also help that It is finally slowing down at multiplexes, so genre enthusiasts may be ready for another horror fix.
High teens to possibly low 20s seems reachable here.
Happy Death Day opening weekend prediction: $20.6 million
Blogger’s Note (10/04/17) – I’ve changed predictions for nearly every film here… UPDATED PROJECTIONS REFLECTED BELOW
After a tight battle for #1 this past weekend between three pictures, there’s little no doubt as to what opens on top this coming weekend with Blade Runner 2049 hitting screens. We also have the Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster pic/romance The Mountain Between Us and animated My Little Pony: The Movie debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As mentioned, the glowing reviews for Blade Runner 2049 and the feeling of it being a bit of an event picture has me projecting a mid 40s opening. That should give it lots of space at #1 ahead of all competitors.
After that, it gets murky. I have Mountain slated at #2, but its middling reviews could be a hindrance to it reaching double digits (which I barely have it reaching).
When it comes to My Little Pony, my $8.2 million estimate is basically a middle ground figure as I could easily see it slightly over or under performing. That number puts it right in the mix of where It, American Made, and Kingsman: The Golden Circle might be. Bottom line: numbers 2-6 on the chart this weekend could be awfully close.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Blade Runner 2049
Predicted Gross: $52.1 million
2. My Little Pony: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
3. It
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. The Mountain Between Us
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. AmericanMade
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)
It is really the sole reason why this September’s box office was a record one and so it seems fitting that the horror flick nearly returned to the #1 position as the month ended. The pic earned $16.9 million (ahead of my $15.1M estimate) to bring its total to $290 million.
Yet it was Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle that barely remained on top as it also made $16.9 million (I said $17.6M) for a two-week tally of $66 million.
Tom Cruise’s AmericanMade debuted in third with a just OK $16.7 million compared to my $15.5M prediction. Its best hope is for smallish declines in future frames.
TheLegoNinjago Movie dropped to fourth with $11.6 million (I said $12.6M) to bring its disappointing total to $35 million.
Flatliners did just that in its premiere in fifth, earning a sleepy $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.3M forecast.
In its wider expansion, BattleoftheSexes underwhelmed in sixth with only $3.4 million, below my $5.2M estimate.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 