Out July 26th, The Fabulous Four is the latest entry in the growing number of comedies centered on senior women. The actresses making up the title quartet are Susan Sarandon, Bette Midler, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Megan Mullaly. Jocelyn Moorhouse directs with a supporting cast including Bruce Greenwood, Timothy V. Murphy, and Michael Bolton (!).
From Book Club and its recent sequel to Queen Bees and 80 for Brady, this sub genre continues to expand. The first Club and Brady both managed to exceed expectations at the box office, but Four faces a significant challenge. Distributor Bleecker Street is not known for opening their pictures to impressive grosses.
I have yet to see a screen count for this, but recent Bleecker releases like What Happens Later with Meg Ryan and Ezra with Robert De Niro rolled out between 1300-1500 venues. Their respective starts were $1.5 million and $1.2 million. Assuming Four hits about the same number, I’ll project similar results. In fact, I’ll give it exactly what Later managed.
The Fabulous Four opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million
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Focus Features is hoping an older and mostly female audience is kindled by their fond memories of part 1 when Book Club: The Next Chapter opens on May 12th. The sequel to the 2018 rom com features Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, Mary Steenburgen, Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, and Craig T. Nelson reprising their roles. Bill Holderman is back in the director’s seat.
With the action moved to Italy, Chapter seeks to serve a crowd often underserved in the summer season. It’s a formula that paid off handsomely in the same mid-May time frame five years ago. Book Club started with $13.6 million and continued exceeding expectations with small drop-offs in subsequent frames. It ended up earning nearly $70 million domestically and just over $100 million worldwide.
I don’t see any reason why this would fall much under the original in its first weekend. There’s another recent comp in 80 for Brady (also with Fonda) as it premiered with a similar $12.5 million (though it did suffer larger declines afterwards than Club).
I’ll say this debuts right in range with its predecessor. It could go slightly over or under and I’ll pick the latter.
Book Club: The Next Chapter opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
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Between Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Rita Moreno, Sally Field, Tom Brady, and Guy Fieri – we have 12 Oscar nominations, 54 Emmy mentions, 38 Golden Globe nods, six Super Bowl championships, and hundreds of trips to Flavortown. All of them appear in 80 for Brady on February 3rd. Kyle Marvin directs the comedy which finds the aforementioned female quartet on a trek to watch the famed QB in the Super Bowl. Other costars include (in addition to Brady and Fieri as themselves) include Billy Porter, Harry Hamlin, Rob Corddry, Alex Moffat, Bob Balaban, and Glynn Turman. Some of Brady’s old teammates, such as Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola also turn up.
The Paramount release looks to bring in an older female demographic and sports fans during the weekend between the NFL’s Conference Championships and the game where our leads travel to. Tomlin, Fonda, Moreno, and Field having been hitting the circuit hard in recent weeks to promote. I do believe there’s an opportunity for this to exceed expectations. Low to mid teens is where this likely touches down. That’s in line with what Book Club (also featuring Fonda) accomplished in 2018.
80 for Brady opening weekend prediction: $15.5 million
Diane Keaton headlines the comedy Mack & Rita as the Gravitas Venture title hopes to bring in a female crowd in these late summer box office dog days. Out August 12th, costar Elizabeth Lail is magically transformed into her older self who is played by the legendary Oscar winner. Katie Aselton, who appeared in Keaton’s 2018 hit Book Club, directs and the supporting cast includes Taylour Paige, Simon Rex, Loretta Devine, and Wendie Malick.
The studio would love a Book Club size gross. It delivered just shy of $70 million and a sequel is coming in May 2023. That appears highly unlikely as Rita seems to be flying well under the radar. I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection. I suspect this will be lucky to earn what Keaton’s 2019 dud Poms accomplished which was $5.4 million out of the gate. This may be lucky earn about half of that figure.
Mack & Rita opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
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STX Entertainment is hoping an older female audience will turn out next weekend to cheer on Poms. The comedy is headlined by Diane Keaton as a recent retirement community resident who starts a cheerleading squad. Costars include Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Rhea Perlman, Celia Watson, Alisha Boe, and Bruce McGill. Zara Hayes directs.
The film is hopeful to become a counter programming option amidst lots of expensive summer blockbusters. However, competition for a female audience is there as TheHustle opens against it and LongShot will be in its second weekend. By skewing a bit older with its target audience, Poms is looking to tap into BookClub money.
That movie opened last May to $13.5 million on roughly the same number of screens that this is. It legged out nicely to $68 million. I don’t have Poms jumping that high and I’m forecasting high single digits to low double digits as it hopes for small drops in the weekends ahead.
Poms opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
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Two-time Oscar winner (for Klute and Coming Home) and seven-time nominee Jane Fonda won’t receive any awards attention this year for her summer hit Book Club. However, it could be a different story when it comes to a documentary made about her life – Jane Fonda in Five Acts.
The tale of the actress/political activist/fitness guru originally debuted earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival and it premieres on HBO on September 24th. Reviews are strong and the Academy’s respect for its subject could warrant inclusion in the Best Documentary Feature race.
That said, this has been an impressive year for docs. Among those expected to be nominated concentrate on other legendary figures like Mr. Rogers (Won’t You Be My Neighbor?) and Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg (RBG).
Bottom line: the level of competition is steep, but Ms. Fonda’s story as opposed to her acting could make its way to the attention of voters.
A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.
The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2.
Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.
As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Hereditary
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
5. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. Adrift
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 1-3)
All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.
Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.
Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).
Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.
Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.
Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.
Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:
The post Memorial Day weekend gives us a trio of vowel led titles as romantic disaster drama Adrift with Shailene Woodley, Johnny Knoxville comedy Action Point, and Blumhouse horror pic Upgrade all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I don’t expect any of the newbies to exactly set the box office ablaze, but have Adrift getting over Action Point (if for nothing else than the higher theater count). My meager $2.8 estimate for Upgrade leaves it far outside the top 5.
The top two (and perhaps 3) should remain unchanged, but the real story of the weekend may be how far Solo: A Star Wars Story drops. It shouldn’t have trouble remaining #1, but as discussed in my post from last night, it came in considerably below expectations:
Press chatter since the undeniably disappointing premiere of Solo has solely focused on just that and it could cause the film to take a hefty dip in its sophomore frame. In addition, tent pole features opening over the Memorial weekend typically experience large declines anyway. Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 64%. I believe a better comp might be Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull from 10 years ago. It made $100 million over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend and dipped 55% in weekend #2. That seems more feasible for Solo, however if it fell over 60% it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.
Deadpool 2 should remain in second place while Avengers: Infinity War could find itself locked in battle for third with Adrift or possibly Action Point. I’m giving Adrift an edge.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the beginning of June:
1. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $37.3 million
2. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Adrift
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
4. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Action Point
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (May 25-28)
As discussed already, Solo: A Star Wars Story came in far below expectations with $103 million over the four-day weekend. That’s, ahem, a bit under my forecast of $151.3 million. Just days ago, the stand-alone Star Wars entry was a strong candidate to break the previous $139 million Memorial Day record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. It ended up as only the 7th highest holiday haul.
Deadpool 2 dropped to second with $53.8 million, in line with my $55.2 million prediction for a two-week total of $218 million.
Avengers: Infinity War was third at $22.4 million (I was right there at $22.5 million) for $627 million overall.
Book Club was fourth with $13.1 million in its second weekend, topping my $11.7 million projection for $35 million total. The comedy is scoring with a female and older audience and turning into a nice midsize summer performer.
Life of the Party rounded out the top five with $6.8 million, topping my $5.3 million prediction. It’s made $40 million total.
It’s Memorial Day weekend at the box office and Solo: A Star Wars Story is the solo new release as it looks to dominate the holiday charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I believe Solo will manage to just top $150 million for the four-day frame and that would make it the largest Memorial Day opening of all time (topping the $139 million earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007).
The holiday weekend often means small declines for holdovers and I believe that will hold true such titles as Avengers: Infinity War, Book Club, and Life of the Party. That may not apply to Deadpool 2, which will certainly be in second place. The Ryan Reynolds sequel seems likely to lose over 50% of its opening crowd – perhaps even 55% or so.
And with that, my take on the weekend’s top five (keep in mind these are Friday to Monday estimates):
1. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $151.3 million
2. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $55.2 million
3. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Book Club
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
5. Life of the Party
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (May 18-20)
Deadpool 2 easily dominated the weekend, but did so with a little less dollars than most projections include mine. The superhero sequel earned $125.5 million, under my $137.4 million prediction. That’s good for the second biggest R rated debut of all time behind… Deadpool from 2016. Considering its reported $110 million budget, that’s still a hefty haul even though many figured it might manage to just top the original.
Avengers: Infinity War dropped to second after three weeks at #1 with $29.4 million (in line with my $30.8 million projection) for $595 million overall.
Book Club experienced a nice debut in third with $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.3 million estimate. I look for this to have perhaps the smallest drop of any feature over Memorial Day.
Life of the Party was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $8.4 million) for $30 million total.
Breaking In rounded out the top five at $6.8 million (I said $7.2 million) for $29 million in its two weeks.
Finally, family feature Show Dogs failed to bring in its audience with just $6 million. I was higher at $7.9 million.
Four titles enter the marketplace this weekend with the big-ticket item being Deadpool 2. It should easily achieve the third highest opening so far in 2018 (behind MCU juggernauts Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther) and knock Infinity from its three-week perch atop the charts. We also have comedy Book Club, family pic Show Dogs, and documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As stated, the return of Ryan Reynolds and his very R-rated superhero should dominate. I have the sequel to the 2016 mega-hit performing slightly over its predecessor, which stormed out of the gate with $132 million in February of 2016. Avengers should drop to second and lose around 50% of its audience.
Book Club, if it manages to reach my high single digits forecast, could place third if Life of the Party loses 50% or more of its audience (which I believe it will). Show Dogs has some sleeper potential, but my projection puts it in a potential dogfight with the second weekend of Breaking In.
The Pope documentary is debuting on a low 350 screens. While it should have a solid per screen average, my $2.3 estimate puts it towards the lower end of the top ten. And with that, here are my top 6 projections for the weekend:
1. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $137.4 million
2. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $30.8 million
3. Book Club
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
4. Life of the Party
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Show Dogs
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
6. Breaking In
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (May 11-13)
Avengers: Infinity War continued its domination in weekend #3 with $62 million (a bit more than my $59.7 million prediction) to bring its gargantuan tally to $548 million. That’s the fourth highest third frame of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther). The MCU phenomenon is in 8th place already on the all-time domestic earners list.
Melissa McCarthy experienced a box office disappointment as Life of the Party was second with $17.8 million, under my $19.4 million forecast. It’s her lowest opener so far for a starring vehicle ever since she broke out in 2011 with Bridesmaids.
The Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In performed well, debuting in third with $17.6 million. My prediction? $17.6 million! The pic is likely to experience a pretty hefty drop this weekend.
Overboard held up quite impressively in its sophomore frame (perhaps thanks to a Mother’s Day bump) with $9.8 million, easily outpacing my $6.2 million projection. The comedy has earned $30 million so far.
A Quiet Place rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was a tad lower at $5.3 million) to bring its total gross to $169 million.
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