Tag: Annabelle: Creation

Box Office Predictions: September 8-10

The fall box office officially is underway this weekend and it can’t come soon enough after a truly lackluster end to the summer season. This season is looking to kick off in record breaking fashion with the release of Stephen King adapted horror pic It as well as the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/29/it-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/home-again-box-office-prediction/

Riding a wave of solid buzz coupled with its eerie TV spots and trailers, It is shaping up to be an event film. My estimate easily makes it the highest September debut of all time and biggest horror opening in history.

Home Again should easily be #2 considering the extreme lack of competition, but the question is how effective it will be as counter programming for female audiences. I have it just under a teens debut as it hopes to leg out in subsequent weekends.

The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers. The Hitman’s Bodyguard three week reign on top will be over. Last weekend’s #2 Annabelle: Creation may suffer the largest decline because of the It factor.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. It

Predicted Gross: $65.4 million

2. Home Again

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

3. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Wind River

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (September 1-4)

As anticipated, the summer movie season closed with a whimper. That said, most of the holdovers help up better than my estimates while two newcomers couldn’t manage to find an audience. Even though my forecasts were low, this was still the weakest Labor Day frame in 17 years.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard placed first for the third weekend in a row with $13.2 million, managing to easily surpass my $8.9M projection. It ends its run in first place with $57 million total.

Annballe: Creation was second with $9.1 million – topping my meager $5.7M estimate for a tally of $90 million.

Wind River continued a laudible run, climbing to third with $7.8 million (I was under with $5.1M). It’s made $20 million thus far.

Animated Leap! was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.4M) to see its total jump to $12 million.

Dunkirk rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, ahead of my $4.2M prediction. The Oscar hopeful has amassed $180 million.

Aforementioned newbies both bombed. Latin comedy Hazlo Como Hombre earned a measly $1.4 million (I went higher with $3.5M). Long delayed Alicia Vikander period piece Tulip Fever fared even worse at $1.3 million (I predicted $1.9M). Those debuts were good for 22nd and 24th place, respectively. Ouch.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 1-4

After this weekend’s incredibly sluggish box office frame (more on that below), Hollywood is more or less taking the Labor Day holiday off. Only two pictures are debuting and neither is a wide release. They are the Spanish language comedy Hazlo Como Hombre and oft-delayed costume drama Tulip Fever. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Hazlo Como Hombre Box Office Prediction

Tulip Fever Box Office Prediction

Even though Hombre is on 200 screens less than Tulip, I’m predicting it will have a higher opening. My $3.5 million estimate for it outshines my $1.9 million one for Tulip. Either way, my takes on the newbies put them both outside the top 5.

The good news (if you can call it that) for returnees is that this particular weekend usually sees very small declines and even increases from the previous weekend. That should mean a return engagement on top for The Hitman’s Bodyguard for the third time.

There could be a legitimate battle for #2 depending on the fluctuations of holdovers like Annabelle: Creation, Leap!, Wind River, Dunkirk, or a potentially higher Hombre gross than I’m saying.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the holiday weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 13%)

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)

3. Leap!

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing an increase of 15%)

4. Wind River

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing an increase of 11%)

5. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing an increase of 10%)

Box Office Results (August 25-27)

It was, to put it mildly, a terrible weekend at the box office. Between the lack of any high-profile releases, a hurricane in Texas, and a boxing match that captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night, the top 12 sunk to its lowest level since late September 2001. Obviously, this was at a time when the country was still reeling from the 9/11 tragedy. It will clearly take It the following weekend to wake the box office from its slumber because it isn’t happening over Labor Day.

As anticipated, The Hitman’s Bodyguard repeated at #1 with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.5M estimate for a two-week total of $39M. Look for it to three peat this weekend in another disastrous frame.

Annabelle: Creation held the runner-up spot again with $7.6 million, on pace with my $7.7M projection for a $78M overall tally.

Animated Leap! debuted in third with a middling $4.7 million, a bit above my $4.1M take. The production did manage an A Cinemascore grade, so it’ll hope for a fair Labor Day gross.

I incorrectly left the Jeremy Renner thriller Wind River outside the top 5, but it expanded its screen count to place fourth and made $4.6 million to bring its earnings to $10M.

Logan Lucky was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $4M) and it’s lackluster total is $14M.

Dunkirk was sixth with $3.9 million (I estimated $4.2M) for $172M overall.

Other debuts failed to garner eyeballs. Birth of the Dragon was 8th with $2.7 million compared to my $2.9M projection. Faith based drama All Saints faltered in 16th with $1.5 million. I was more generous with a $2.6M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 25-27

The doldrums of the late August box office eclipses theaters this weekend as four new entries are scheduled to open wide: animated Leap!, Christian themed drama All Saints, martial arts pic Birth of the Dragon, and Robert Pattinson heist thriller Good Time. You can look directly at my individual prediction posts here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/leap-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/all-saints-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/17/birth-of-the-dragon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/21/good-time-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I only have one of the newbies over $4 million (ouch). Good Time is a bit of a head scratcher, since there’s no theater count yet (my estimate for it could easily change). I only have it at $1.5 million currently.

With my $2.9 million prediction for Dragon and $2.6 million prognosis for Saints, that means I only have Leap! managing a top 5 debut in fourth.

That means holdovers dominate the remainder of my picks with The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily repeating at number one and Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, and Dunkirk filling the remaining slots.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Leap!

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

 

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily topped the box office and opened at the highest end of expectations with $21.3 million compared to my lower $16.7M estimate. The Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy could well be #1 for three weeks, considering the extreme lack of competition.

Annabelle: Creation dropped to second with  $15.6 million to bring its pleasing total to $64 million. I predicted just a tad lower at $14.6M.

Despite positive reviews and considerable star power, Steven Soderbergh’s heist comedy Logan Lucky opened with lackluster results in third with $7.6 million, below my $10.5M prediction.

Dunkirk was fourth with $6.6 million (I said $7M) for a $165 million overall tally.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature was fifth in its second weekend with $5 million, a bit above my $4.5M forecast. Its total is $17 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 18-20

Mid August at the box office comes with some star power as two new pictures open competing for the same audience: Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Steven Soderbergh’s heist action comedy Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/the-hitmans-bodyguard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/logan-lucky-box-office-prediction/

The newbies could find themselves in a battle for the #1 spot. Lucky is winning on the reviews side with a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes while Bodyguard stands at 55%. However, my inkling is that Mr. Reynolds will edge out Mr. Tatum with a gross in the mid to higher teens with Lucky in the lower teens.

There’s also the matter of Annabelle: Creation, which got off to a strong start this past weekend (more on that below). If Bodyguard and Lucky both underwhelm, the demonic doll has a slight chance to repeat at #1. However, the horror prequel is likely to suffer a drop in the mid to high 50s. If it all pans out as I see it, we will have our fourth weekend of 2017 where no movie manages to top $20 million.

The rest of the top five should be filled out by holdovers Dunkirk and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature in its second frame after a weak start.

Lastly, the Taylor Sheridan directed thriller Wind River with Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen is slated to expand to approximately 600-700 screens. It’s been performing well with critics and in limited release. If that screen count holds true, I’d peg it at $3.1 million this weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

Annabelle: Creation scared up some solid business taking in $35 million (beating my $31.4M forecast) to easily place #1. The horror prequel fell just shy of the $37.1 million accomplished by its 2014 predecessor and keeps the Conjuring universe chugging right along.

Dunkirk remained in second with $10.8 million (I was a touch higher at $11.7M). It’s made $153M thus far.

Family audiences largely rejected The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which debuted in third to just $8.3 million (under my $12.2M prediction). The sequel made less than half of the $19 million achieved out of the gate by the 2014 original. Opening on over 4000 screens, it had a per screen average of just over $2,000. On the bright side, parents who did take their kids to see it probably had plenty of room to roam about the theater. Ouch.

The Dark Tower went from first to fourth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M). bringing its lackluster two-week tally to only $34M.

Girls Trip placed fifth with $6.4 million (I projected $7.2M) as it stands at $97M and should cross the century mark this week.

The Emoji Movie was #6, also with $6.4 million (I said $6M) for a $63M total.

Finally, Brie Larson drama The Glass Castle had a respectable debut in ninth with $4.6 million (I was close at $4.2M). On a relatively small 1400+ screens, it actually achieved the second highest per screen average of the top ten.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 11-13

August rolled in like a lamb at the box office and three new releases this weekend will try and pick things up: horror prequel Annabelle: Creation, animated sequel The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, and Brie Larson led drama The Glass Castle. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

Annabelle: Creation Box Office Prediction

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Box Office Prediction

The Glass Castle Box Office Prediction

Annabelle has received significantly better reviews than its predecessor, yet I still question its ability to open above it (the original was coming hot on the heels of The Conjuring). Still, my estimate for Creation has it easily topping the charts in the low 30s.

My lower teens estimate for Nutty by Nature (yeah you know me) should be good enough for second place considering expectations for holdovers and the weak debut of current #1 The Dark Tower (more on its opening below).

As for The Glass Castle, the current theater count is 1400 which is pretty low. Even though it’s based on a popular book from 2005, the marketing campaign seems rather quiet and I’ve got it outside the top five at $4.2 million. Note that this number could be revised up (and maybe down though doubtful) as the week rolls along.

Dunkirk may just fall one spot to third with Tower dropping to fourth. The five spot could be a battle between The Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. And with that, we’ll do a top 6 projections for this particular weekend:

1. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

2. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

The long-awaited adaptation of Stephen King’s The Dark Tower experienced four revisions down from my original prediction post which put it in the mid 30s (that seems like a long time ago). It soon became clear the pic wasn’t going to perform too well and that bore out with $19.1 million (my final prediction was $18.4M). That’s still good for first place, but it’s a pretty darn soft debut. Poor reviews and word-of-mouth took its toll. This was only the third weekend of the year (and first of the summer) to feature a #1 movie performing under $20M (though I’d anticipate more later in the month).

Dunkirk dropped to second after two weeks on top with $17.1 million (ahead of my predicted $15.5M) for a total of $133M.

The Emoji Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12 million (I said $11.4M) to bring its two-week tally to $49M.

Girls Trip took the four spot with $11.4 million, a bit shy of my $12.9M projection to bring the sleeper hit’s total to $85M.

The Halle Berry thriller Kidnap had a decent little opening in fifth with $10 million, easily outpacing my $6.8M projection. Its double digit debut was certainly on the higher end of expectations.

For Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, its performance was underwhelming. Despite very positive reviews, the 1960s set racial drama placed 8th with just $7.1 million compared to my $11.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Box Office Prediction

Annabelle: Creation isn’t the only follow-up to a 2014 picture opening next weekend as animated sequel The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature debuts. Will Arnett, Katherine Heigl, Gabriel Iglesias, and Jeff Dunham return their voices from the original as Maya Rudolph, Bobby Cannavale, Bobby Moynihan, and Jackie Chan lend their stylings as well.

The animal heist pic hopes to repeat the success of the first which was made for a reported $42 million, made $64 domestically and $128 million worldwide. That stands as the largest gross ever for distributor Open Road.

Summer 2017 has seen its share of sequelitis and there’s been a plethora of higher profile animated offerings. In my estimation that likely means a bit of a drop for part 2’s debut (the first opened to $19 million). Even though I give it a modicum of credit for subtitling itself after an awesome early 90s hip hop group (yeah you know me), I’ll say a low double digits to low teens premiere is the result.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million

 

For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/02/annabelle-creation-box-office-prediction/

For my The Glass Castle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/03/the-glass-castle-box-office-prediction/

Annabelle: Creation Box Office Prediction

The demented doll made famous four summers ago is back in Annabelle: Creation, a prequel to 2014’s original, which itself was a spin-off of 2013’s breakout horror smash The Conjuring. This follow-up is from director David F. Sandberg, who made last summer’s well-received Lights Out. Stars include Stephanie Sigman, Talitha Bateman, Anthony LaPaglia, and Miranda Otto.

There is one major difference between the 2014 spin-off and its sequel. While Annabelle only obtained a 29% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this one is surprisingly at 100% and is obviously said to be a marked improvement.

How will that translate to box office dollars? Annabelle opened to a better than anticipated $37.1 million and was front loaded in its business with an eventual $84 million domestic gross. The Conjuring 2 from last summer couldn’t quite match its original’s debut (though it was awfully close at $41 million vs. $40 million).

Competition is relatively light, but even with the solid reviews, I don’t expect Creation to quite match the premiere of its predecessor. However, it may leg out better. I’ll say a high 20s to low 30s debut is most probable.

Annabelle: Creation opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million

For my The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/02/the-nut-job-2-nutty-by-nature-box-office-prediction/

For my The Glass Castle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/03/the-glass-castle-box-office-prediction/