Box Office Predictions: January 23-25

Three new movies take on the daunting task of attempting to unseat the box office juggernaut that is American Sniper. They are the Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door, Johnny Depp comedy Mortdecai, and George Lucas produced 3D animated pic Strange Magic. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

We’ll cut right to the chase here: not a one of them has a chance of taking on Sniper. I look for Lopez’s flick to appeal to a female audience and generate the best debut among the newbies that should be good enough for a #2 opening. As for Magic and Mortdecai, neither look to make much of a dent.

As mentioned, the jaw dropping opening of American Sniper should mean it easily retains its top spot. Both Paddington and The Wedding Ringer premiered solidly and I look for them to be right behind Door in their second weekends. If either Magic or Mortdecai fail to perform even up to my meager expectations, it could mean Taken 3 remains in the top six as it should gross around $7 million in its third weekend.

And with that, estimates for this weekend’s Top 6:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $50.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

2. The Boy Next Door

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

4. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Strange Magic

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

6. Mortdecai

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

Box Office Results (January 16-18)

This weekend, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper became a cultural phenomenon. No one saw a gross this huge coming as it performed similar to what a superhero summer tent pole would earn. It took in $89.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend (I predicted less than half of that at $40.6M). For the long MLK weekend, it made $107 million. Unreal. Clearly the combination of critical acclaim, Oscar nominations, and highly effective trailers and TV spots did the job.

The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer had a sturdy second place opening at $20.6 million, however it was below my $29.4M estimate. Over the four-day it made $24 million.

The children’s bear tale Paddington took in $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday, under my $22.3M projection. The well-reviewed pic amassed a pleasing $25.4M over the four day portion of the weekend.

Taken 3 dipped to fourth in its sophomore frame with $14.7 million, under my $17.1M prediction. The action sequel stands at $65 million at press time.

Selma was fifth in its second weekend in release with $8.7 million – not matching my generous $12.5M estimate. I thought the MLK holiday might assist a little more in bumping its grosses, though it’s worth noting that yesterday’s holiday gave the pic its largest single day during its run. It’s earned $31M so far.

Finally… Blackhat. Oh boy. The Michael Mann directed thriller with Chris Hemsworth bombed placing 10th with a pathetic $3.9 million. I predicted $13.6M. Oops. The heavy competition, weak reviews, and middling marketing campaign sunk this project, which reportedly cost $70M. Blackhat easily qualifies as the first enormous failure of 2015.

In case you didn’t notice, everything but Sniper grossed less than I figured. It’s no accident. Sniper unquestionably had an effect on the viability of the other releases and Sniper‘s debut will definitely rank as one of the box office top stories of this year.

And there you have it! Until next time….

Philomena Movie Review

Martin Sixsmith (Steve Coogan) is a former journalist turned British government official who’s recently lost his job in disgrace. His preference would be to concentrate on writing a book about Russian history to fill his time, but a human interest story comes his way. He disdains the idea of that type of journalism but even his cynical nature is trumped by a realization. As human interest stories go, this is a fascinating one. Plus no one seems to be clamoring for his ruminations about Lenin and Brezhnev.

Philomena Lee (Judi Dench) is still haunted by the events surrounding her separation from her son fifty years ago. After becoming pregnant at age 18 and giving birth to Anthony, she is sent to an Irish convent. She is forced to work long hours in the laundromat with access to her offspring for one hour per day. Anthony is soon put up for adoption without Philomena’s consent. On what is Anthony’s 50th birthday, his long lost mother takes further steps to find him by enlisting Martin.

This eventually leads to what becomes a road trip drama with heavy comedic undertones. The mix of slightly snooty Martin with Philomena provides humorous results. She seems often incapable of understanding sarcasm which Martin excels in. They are also polar opposites on the faith scale with the title character having never lost it. The same cannot be said for her traveling companion.

Washington D.C. becomes their landing spot where surprising revelations (surprising to some) about Anthony come out. The lighthearted nature of the proceedings continue with heavy drama interrupting it. Philomena is torn between a visit to the Lincoln Memorial and watching the Martin Lawrence pic Big Momma’s House on the hotel movie service. And there’s amazement on her part about free breakfasts and drinks on airplanes.

While we are dealing with a true story here, writers Coogan and Jeff Pope (adapting Martin’s book) could’ve spent a bit less time exploring Philomena’s personality quirks. It’s good for some laughs, but it’s also highly familiar stuff. What works best is when Philomena, both the character and the film, stay in the dramatic lane. By the time all is revealed about the backstory on why she never could find her son, the pic delivers serious emotional material that is effective. It’s just an uneven process getting there.

Judi Dench and Steve Coogan make a solid team. We’ve come to expect greatness from Dame Judi and she is terrific here. Yet Coogan is impressive as well as he veers away from his usual type of material. They alone are reason enough to recommend Philomena and its manageability to get at our heartstrings after awhile is another.

*** (out of four)

 

American Sniper Movie Review

Silence and noise. Both are used in tremendously effective and emotional ways in Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. The noise of war which we’ve heard again and again in movies. Yet the silence of it too. The quiet thoughts and solemnity of its central character with his finger on the trigger having to make snap judgments most of us couldn’t fathom. The noise of everyday life and your children playing and wife speaking to you. Yet those noises are silenced by other noises. The sound of war whose echoes never fully leave the mind of Chris Kyle.

American Sniper is the true life tale of the Navy Seal credited with having the most kills in our 21st century Middle East conflict. Bradley Cooper is Chris, who was raised with a sense of duty with an emphasis on protecting others. When the United States comes under attack, Chris’s protective instincts find their calling. He eventually does four tours overseas and becomes a near mythic figure for his abilities behind a rifle.

His incredible talents in his military life trump his capacity to manage a family life. In between tours, he has trouble adjusting to normal life with his wife Taya (Sienna Miller) and his kids. Chris is distant. His mind is with his fellow soldiers. Even after saving so many of them, Chris doesn’t think in those terms. When he’s back in Texas, there is the fact that Chris can’t save them. Going home to him does not hold the same meaning it would to many. Home is on top of a roof in Iraq watching over his men.

The picture has an understated tone that we’ve come to anticipate from director Eastwood. One looking for deep political overtones won’t find them. While we may know Clint’s politics, they’re not on display here. This is a character study and its matter of factness extends to the war scenes. The decisions Chris must face include whether to kill women and children. There are times here when it’s almost too intense to watch, but it’s a necessity to understand Chris’s psyche.

Bradley Cooper is a revelation here. First known as a comedic actor, this and Silver Linings Playbook especially have shown him to be one of the most powerful dramatic actors on screen. His physical transformation and southern accent are remarkable, but it wouldn’t mean much without his emotional wallop of an acting job. There are subtleties in his take on Chris and his responses to those praising his legendary prowess on the battlefield that are moving and sometimes devastating. As is his realization that his time in foreign countries should end.

Military service and dedication to his comrades doesn’t end with active duty for Chris. His final act in this world involves helping another soldier. It ends in a horrifically tragic way. Chris wouldn’t have had it any other way. Helping other soldiers is what he does and is his duty.

**** (out of four)

 

Remaking Hitchcock

There’s a segment in Gone Girl where the bizarre relationship between Rosamund Pike and Neil Patrick Harris comes to a rather memorable end. This sequence contains a mix of sex and violence that would’ve made Alfred Hitchcock proud. It’s the kind of scene that the master director probably would’ve loved to film had the time he was making movies allowed it.

This is why, for the first time, a remake of a Hitchcock classic actually doesn’t sound like a bad idea. It was announced this week that Gone Girl’s director – the brilliant David Fincher – will helm a remake of Strangers on a Train, Hitch’s 1951 effort. The screenwriter is Gillian Flynn, who of course wrote the Gone Girl book and its screenplay. Ben Affleck will star.

If there’s anyone out there who could pull off the daunting task of remaking Hitchcock, it’s Fincher. Having said that, the last time an Oscar nominated auteur attempted the same feat… well, it failed miserably.

Gus Van Sant, who was fresh off Oscar attention for Good Will Hunting, made the infamously terrible decision to do a shot for shot remake of Hitchcock’s Psycho. Audiences and critics alike didn’t understand why and it struggled at the box office.

Psycho was released in 1998, as were two other Hitch remakes that also made little impression. A Perfect Murder took on 1954’s Dial M for Murder and starred Michael Douglas and Gwyneth Paltrow. It did better financially than Psycho but couldn’t hold a candle to its source material.

On the television front, Christopher Reeve appeared in one of his final roles headlining a rehash of Rear Window. While Reeve received positive notices, the picture itself didn’t.

Indeed the director who’s probably had the greatest success remaking Alfred Hitchcock is Alfred Hitchcock. In 1956, he released The Man Who Knew Too Much with James Stewart and Doris Day to solid box office results. 22 years earlier in England was his even more acclaimed original with Peter Lorre.

I’ll say this: Gone Girl is a movie that Hitchcock probably would have found highly enjoyable. The fact that its team is now involved in a direct homage to the filmmaker is certainly going to be interesting to watch.

 

 

 

Strange Magic Box Office Prediction

He may not be involved in 2015’s most anticipated film that carries on the franchise he started, but George Lucas is credited with coming up with the story for Strange Magic, out Friday. The 3D animated musical fantasy comes from LucasFilm and features the voices of Alan Cumming, Evan Rachel Wood, Kristen Chenoweth (who also appears in this weekend’s The Boy Next Door), Maya Rudolph, and Alfred Molina.

Competition for family audiences is there with the well performing Paddington entering its sophomore frame. The marketing campaign for Strange Magic has been rather quiet and it doesn’t help that the story isn’t based on a well known property. Nor does it have the trusted Disney or Pixar moniker.

All that considered, I’ll predict this doesn’t even reach a double digit debut out of the gate.

Strange Magic opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million

For my prediction on Mortdecai, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

The Boy Next Door Box Office Prediction

In recent years Jennifer Lopez has become known more for American Idol than her once stellar film career. This Friday, she headlines the psychological thriller The Boy Next Door and it could be primed for a healthy opening. Costars include Ryan Guzman, Kristen Chenoweth and John Corbett. Rob Cohen, director of XXX and the original Fast and Furious flick, is behind the camera.

The Boy Next Door could benefit from a decent female audience turnout. Its reported tiny budget of only $4 million virtually assures profitability. Reviews aren’t likely to be on its side, but that shouldn’t matter a whole lot. I envision this performing on a similar scale to The Call, Halle Berry’s thriller which debuted with a higher than expected $17 million nearly two years ago. That means Jenny from the Block could double the grosses of Johnny (Depp) from Mortdecai this weekend.

The Boy Next Door opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million

For my Mortdecai prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Strange Magic, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

Mortdecai Box Office Prediction

During this decade, Johnny Depp has seen his share of box office disappointments that include The Tourist, Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger and Transcendence. This Friday, the comedy Mortdecai will succeed or fail solely on the star’s drawing power. Considering the recent history, it could mean a soft opening.

Depp collaborates for the second time with his Secret Window director David Koepp. The supporting cast is filled with famous faces that include Gwyneth Paltrow, Ewan McGregor, Paul Bettany, Olivia Munn and Aubrey Plaza. Reviews have yet to materialize – usually not a good sign. The trailers and TV spots have been unremarkable at best.

It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Mortdecai performs well. I believe it will struggle to reach double digits and won’t. Lionsgate is on record saying they’d like to see Mortdecai become a franchise. After next weekend’s opening, that talk should cease and my prediction would mark Depp’s lowest debut since 2011’s The Rum Diary.

Mortdecai opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

For my Strange Magic prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

2014 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And they’re out!

The Oscar nominations for the 2014 movie year were released this morning. As readers of the blog know, I made my final predictions yesterday evening in the eight major categories. So how did I do?

Well… not too shabby as I see it. Of the 44 nominations predicted, I correctly got 38 which equates to 86% overall and perfect scores in three of the races. Let’s take a look at the categories one by one and, for the first time, I’ll offer my initial thoughts on what and who will win:

BEST PICTURE

As mentioned last night, I finally got on the Nightcrawler bandwagon. Frankly, I should have been thinking more about the American Sniper bandwagon. It’s the only movie that received a nod that I didn’t predict. There were eight nominees instead of my estimated nine, which meant my Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler calls were left off. So overall – 7 out of 9 on Best Picture.

Nominees

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

This appears to be a three film race between Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game with Boyhood appearing to have the edge. Selma was once thought to be in that mix, but today’s lack of nods in other categories render its chances virtually non-existent.

Current Predicted Winner: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Went 4 out of 5 here. Bennett Miller’s nomination for Foxcatcher was only surprising because the picture itself wasn’t recognized. I included Ana DuVernay for Selma yet her exclusion isn’t that shocking since Selma has been losing steam.

Nominees

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

For the last two years, Oscar has split their Picture and Director winners. I could easily see a scenario where Boyhood takes top prize with Inarritu’s virtuoso work in Birdman victorious in this category. This is a tough call, but for now I’ll go with Linklater’s heralded and long gestating accomplishment in Boyhood.

Predicted Winner: Linklater

BEST ACTOR

4 for 5 again. This race had turned into a seven man showdown and two were going to be left out. They were David Oyelowo in Selma (who I predicted wouldn’t be nominated) and Jake Gyllenhall in Nightcrawler (I predicted he would). The Sniper love meant Bradley Cooper picked up his third consecutive nomination and he’s the one I left out.

Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

We’ll keep this short and sweet. Cumberbatch or Redmayne could spoil, but this is Keaton’s race to lose.

Predicted Winner: Keaton

BEST ACTRESS

5 for 5 here! I’ll pat myself on the back for including Marion Cotillard’s “surprise” nom for Two Days One Night. Some were surprised at Jennifer Aniston’s exclusion for Cake, but the film was so small and reviews so not solid that I wasn’t.

Nominees

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Like the Best Actor race, we have a big front runner here and it’s Moore (a celebrated and often nominated actress who’s never won). It’s simply hard to imagine any of the other four topping her.

Predicted Winner: Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

5 for 5 again!! Not much to add here as these five actors were the expected nominees and that’s how it panned out.

Nominees

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again there’s a major front runner. J.K. Simmons has won most of the precursors. Only an extremely good night for Birdman and a Norton upset seems plausible… but not that plausible.

Predicted Winner: Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

4 for 5 here as Laura Dern’s work in Wild (which I’d predicted previously but took her off) was included and Jessica Chastain’s in A Most Violent Year was excluded.

Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The broken record continues as Stone could reap the benefit of a Birdman love fest. However, Arquette seems to be in a solid position for gold.

Predicted Winner: Arquette

Best Original Screenplay

Perfection again – 5 for 5!!! ‘Nuff said…

Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

This would appear to be the race where Birdman has an ever so slight edge over Boyhood. If there’s a spoiler, it could be Grand Budapest.

Predicted Winner: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay

4 for 5. The American Sniper props continued as I didn’t include it. That meant Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her book Gone Girl was left off… which was a bit of a surprise.

Nominees

American Sniper

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Here, The Imitation Game seems the most likely to win and it’ll likely represent its only victory in the main races.

Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game

As for surprises in the down ticket categories, there were a couple of big ones. In the Animated Feature category, The LEGO Movie was seen to many as a potential winner and it wasn’t even nominated. In the Documentary race, the Roger Ebert pic Life Itself was shockingly left out.

Please note that my current winner predictions are not my final ones and I will have a post up the weekend before the ceremony to make those picks in all categories.

Stay tuned!

 

Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions!

Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.

As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild 

And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!

Box Office Predictions: January 16-18

Four high profile pictures enter the marketplace this Friday. They are Clint Eastwood’s Oscar buzz worthy American Sniper starring Bradley Cooper, the Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer, children’s pic Paddington, and Chris Hemsworth headlining and Michael Mann directed cyber thriller Blackhat. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

It’s Sniper that I anticipate ruling the box office weekend with Ringer and Paddington debuting solidly and in the runner up positions. As for Blackhat, it may settle for a weak fifth place premiere, behind current champ Taken 3 in its second weekend. The Liam Neeson sequel should fall hard in its sophomore frame like its predecessor, but its better than anticipated debut makes that a non story.

Finally, Oscar contender Selma opened to less than expected results. Yet I look for it to gain audience in its second frame considering the weekend is named for its subject, Dr. Martin Luther King.

With that, a top six projection for the weekend:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $40.6 million

2. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Taken 3

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

5. Blackhat

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

6. Selma

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 12%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JANUARY 9-11)

As widely expected, Taken 3 easily knocked The Hobbit off its three week reign at #1. The critically drubbed sequel took in an impressive $39.2 million – besting my $32.8M prediction. Neeson says this is the finale of the franchise but something tells me the studio will figure out a way otherwise.

Selma opened second. As previously mentioned, the $11.3 million it earned is underwhelming (I said $17.2M). Yet it should experience low drop offs in subsequent weekends.

2014 holdovers rounded out the top five and all held up a bit worse than my estimates. Into the Woods placed third with $9.5 million ($11.8M prediction). The Hobbit was fourth with $9.3 million ($12.1M prediction). Unbroken was fifth with $8.1 million ($11.7M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $105, $236, and $101 million.

Lastly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice expanded to over 400 screens and did just OK. Its $2.7 million 11th place roll out did manage to top my $1.8M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!