Blackhat Box Office Prediction

Its reported $80 million budget represents the largest of all the four films rolling out over Martin Luther King weekend, yet Michael Mann’s cyber thriller Blackhat is likely to be the lowest opener among them. Thor himself Chris Hemsworth headlines the pic with Viola Davis in the supporting cast.

Michael Mann has been behind the camera for many hits that include The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, Collateral and Public Enemies, among others. Hemsworth is widely known for his Thor and Avengers work, but this will be a true test of his box office drawing power.

There have been no reviews released so far, which is curious. The January roll out makes me question just how confident (or not) Universal Pictures is with the project. Blackhat’s stumbling block appears to be its severe competiton. American Sniper seems poised for a big debut and Taken 3 should siphon off viewers as well in its sophomore frame.

Add that up and I look for a muted haul for Blackhat next weekend.

Blackhat opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million

For my prediction on American Sniper, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

Paddington Box Office Prediction

It’s already achieved financial success in the United Kingdom and on Friday, StudioCanal Pictures is hoping Paddington posts solid numbers stateside as well. Based on the well known children’s stories by Michael Bond, this bear tale features Ben Whishaw (Q from the Bond flicks) as the voice of the title character. The cast includes several recognizable faces including Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent and Nicole Kidman.

Reviews have been quite strong as it holds a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Paddington could further benefit from a lack of family fare as Night at the Museum and Annie have now made the bulk of their money. I’ll predict this bear manages an opening somewhere between $20 and $25 million for a respectable beginning.

Paddington opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million

For my prediction on American Sniper, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

For my Blackhat prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

Golden Globe Winner Predictions

We are deep into awards season with Oscar nominations coming Thursday and my final predictions arriving Tuesday. The second most notable awards show arrives tomorrow evening with trusty hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning to host the Golden Globes. Here are my guesses for what will win at that show in the major categories.

As you may know, unlike the Oscars, the Globes split the Picture and leading performance races between Drama and Musical/Comedy. Here we go!

Best Film (Drama)

Nominees

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood

POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Imitation Game

 

Best Film (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Into the Woods

Pride

St. Vincent

PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman

POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

 

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

PREDICTED WINNER: Redmayne

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cumberbatch

 

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees

Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

PREDICTED WINNER: Moore

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jones

 

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Bill Murray, St. Vincent

Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

PREDICTED WINNER: Keaton

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Fiennes

 

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey

Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars

Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie

PREDICTED WINNER: Blunt

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Adams

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

PREDICTED WINNER: Simmons

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Norton

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

PREDICTED WINNER: Arquette

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Stone

 

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Linklater

…. And there you have it friends! Let’s see how the Globes turn tomorrow!

 

The Wedding Ringer Box Office Prediction

Never mind that its premise sounds somewhat similar to 2009’s I Love You, Man. The considerable star power of Kevin Hart should be enough to propel The Wedding Ringer to a strong opening. Hart headlines as a consultant tasked with providing best man services for dudes without friends. Josh Gad costars as his latest employer.

Just last year over MLK weekend, Hart found himself with the highest grossing January opening of all time with Ride Along. It began a year of hits for the actor that included About Last Night and Think Like a Man Too. Ringer seems unlikely to debut in the neighborhood of Ride Along. To be fair, however, no one saw that film’s massive premiere coming.

I’ll estimate that The Wedding Ringer opens more in line with Hart’s Think Like a Man sequel from last summer for a solid start that should put it in second position after American Sniper.

The Wedding Ringer opening weekend prediction: $29.4 million

For my prediction on American Sniper, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

For my Blackhat prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

Grudge Match Movie Review

It’s got LL Cool J in a supporting role, so instead of the obvious choice of Grumpy Old Boxers, let’s call Grudge Match “Grandpa Said Knock You Out” shall we? The premise is essentially one big gimmick: take two actors known for classic boxing movies and have them duke it out in a geriatric brawl. That’s about all there is to it, save for a funny post credits sequence that has more biting humor (both literally and figuratively) than anything that transpired in the previous 110 minutes. Said sequence also has nothing to do with the plot before it.

Sylvester Stallone spent a total of 30 years with his Rocky franchise in which the 1976 original won Best Picture. Robert De Niro won a Best Actor statue for his work in Scorsese’s Raging Bull in 1980. Here they are The Kid (De Niro) and Razor (Stallone). They fought two matches years and years ago which resulted in wins for each. The hotly awaited Grudge Match never materialized primarily due to a dispute over a woman (Kim Basinger).

When a promoter played by Kevin Hart begrudgingly enlists the two for a rematch, we got lots of old people jokes. Stallone, in particular, doesn’t even own a TV and WHAT ARE THESE IPADS AND THIS THING CALLED CALL WAITING?!?!?! There’s Alan Arkin as Razor’s trainer basically playing a version of his Oscar winning role in Little Miss Sunshine. Jon Bernthal becomes The Kid’s instructor and he is the son from Basinger that he never meets until present day. Bernthal has a precocious 8 year old son who teaches The Kid to be a grandpa. Also, Bernthal’s character is named B.J. and the writers get some comedic mileage out of it. This is the level of humor we are playing in, folks!

Grudge Match is chock full of cliches and a healthy portion of flat and obvious jokes. The best moments come from the amusing interplay between Hart and Arkin. We’ve already seen Stallone go to this well once before with 2006’s Rocky Balboa. Bringing De Niro along for a mostly stale second installment is about as unnecessary as it sounds.

** (out of four)

American Sniper Box Office Prediction

Expanding nationwide one day after Oscar nominations are revealed, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper hits theaters Friday. Bradley Cooper has been getting some of the best reviews of his career playing the real life title character Chris Kyle, known for having the most kills in U.S. military history. Sienna Miller costars as his wife.

Trailers and TV spots have been quite effective and the solid critical reaction helps. Sniper seems likely to receive a Best Picture nomination, though that’s not guaranteed (my final predictions arrive Tuesday). The pic could particularly play well in middle America.

Last January, another war themed flick Lone Survivor debuted to higher than anticipated grosses with $38 million. That would seem to be a fair range to put Sniper in. In fact, I believe it could contend for biggest January premiere ever. That honor currently belongs to Ride Along, which took in $41.5 million a year ago. My estimate has Sniper falling just shy of that mark.

American Sniper opening weekend prediction: $40.6 million

For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

For my Blackhat prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: Round FIVE

OK folks! We’ve arrived at part five of my Oscar predictions and they’re coming to you nine days before the actual nominations are released. This will be my second to last round of predictions. The final ones will likely come a week from today. I’m estimating the eight biggest categories and with the exception of one race, things have changed since my preceding round nearly a month ago.

Unlike previous posts I won’t go into great detail. I’ll save that for next week. Here are predictions as they stand currently with a listing of the changes I’ve made over the past four weeks:

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

CHANGES

IN: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel

OUT: Gone Girl, Unbroken, Whiplash

BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

IN: Anderson

OUT: David Fincher, Gone Girl

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

NO CHANGES

BEST ACTRESS

Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

IN: Aniston

OUT: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

IN: Duvall

OUT: Tom Wilkinson, Selma

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

IN: Dern

OUT: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

BLOGGER’S NOTE: It was announced yesterday that Whiplash will compete in the Adapted Screenplay instead of its previously anticipated Original Screenplay race.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

IN: Foxcatcher, Nightcrawler

OUT: Selma, Whiplash

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

IN: Inherent Vice, Whiplash

OUT: Unbroken, Wild

And that’ll do it for now! My final predictions are coming to you next week.

 

 

 

Box Office Predictions: January 9-11

The second box office weekend of the new year gives us three new releases: Liam Neeson’s return to his action franchise Taken 3, the civil rights awards hopeful Selma, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice. You can find my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/taken-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/04/selma-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/inherent-vice-box-office-prediction/

Taken 3 should have no trouble opening at the top spot while Selma should manage a solid second place debut. Due to its limited number of screens it’s premiering on, Inherent Vice is likely to land far outside the top five. I have it earning $1.8 million.

As for holdovers such as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Into the Woods, and Unbroken, all should lose less than half their audience from the previous frame. It could be a real fight between them for numbers 3-5. The same cannot be said for The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, which is primed for a hefty fall that’s not uncommon for horror pics.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top 5:

1. Taken 3

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million

2. Selma 

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Into the Woods 

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (January 2-4)

As expected, the third and final Hobbit effort spent its third weekend at #1 with $21.7 million, just under my $23.3M prediction. Its total stands at $220 million and should get to around $275M domestic.

In second in its sophomore frame was Into the Woods with $18.7 million – right on target with my $18.5M projection. Its total since Christmas stands at $90 million and $150M is in sight. Another Christmas release, Unbroken, was third with $18.1 million compared to my $19.2M estimate. Its cume is up to $87 million. It could end up between $140-145M.

The Woman in Black 2: The Angel of Death was the weekend’s only new offering and it performed better than anticipated with $15 million, ahead of my $11.1M prediction. As mentioned earlier, look for it to fall precipitously next weekend.

Family holdovers made up the five and six slots, both in their third weekends. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb took in $14.5 million, on target with my $14.3M prognosis. Annie made $11.2 million and I said… $11.2 million! Boom! Their respective total grosses are $89M and $72M.

Until next time folks!

 

 

 

 

The Equalizer Movie Review

The Equalizer shares primarily its name only with the 1980s show it got its moniker from and much more with Taken and Denzel Washington’s own Man on Fire. Reuniting with his Training Day director Antoine Fuqua, the picture aims to be nothing more than finding clever ways for its star to violently kill bad guys. In that sense, Fuqua’s stylish work and Denzel’s restrained cool (at least in outward personality) often work here. Expectations for anything beyond that should be tempered.

Our headliner is Robert McCall, who is unquestionably the Jack Bauer of hardware store employees. He spends his days there and his nights at a diner where he strikes up a friendly relationship with Teri, a teenage hooker with a heart of gold (Chloe Grace Moretz) who’s also an aspiring singer. Why the filmmakers didn’t give her a child with debilitating asthma or other medical ailment to complete the troika of movie cliches is unknown. Speaking of Russian numbers, five is the number of well connected mobsters from that country that McCall offs when he gets involved with Teri’s affairs. And that leads to a whole lotta Denzel bad assery for the pic’s padded two hour plus running time.

If you hadn’t guessed, McCall is no average hardware store employee. His background is only glossed over but there’s been involvement with Black Ops and the CIA. We get a scene with Melissa Leo and Bill Pullman that provides a little insight. Yet The Equalizer doesn’t spend much time on character development. After all, there’s vengeance to be doled out. McCall’s glory days of government service may have provided quite a satisfactory viewing experience. It would certainly be more insightful than the several minutes of screen time where McCall helps an overweight employee become a security guard.

Back to the vengeance. It’s no secret that Denzel does this kind of thing better than most. If not for his participation, this might be a direct to VOD release. The decision to make his character an indestructible killing machine saps a good bit of tension away. The Russian mobsters are no different than ones you’ve seen before. It comes down to this – if you thought Taken was pure action bliss, sign up. This is what Man on Fire level for me: not one of Denzel’s more memorable entries, but OK.

McCall’s employment locale of Home Mart does provide him with some clever tools to dispense of his prey. One suspects, though, that if he’d worked at Burger King, it’d be no different. He would’ve figured out a method to decapitate baddies with a Whopper wrapper and dislodge tracheas with a chicken fry. He’s just that resourceful.

**1/2 (out of four)

Selma Box Office Prediction

A serious Oscar hopeful expands nationwide this Friday as Selma opens. Focusing on the 1965 voting rights marches, the film casts David Oyelowo as Dr. Martin Luther King and the supporting cast includes Tom Wilkinson, Tim Roth, Carmen Ejogo and Oprah Winfrey, who also serves as a producer.

Selma is considered to be at the top of the list for potential Oscar winners. Director Ana DuVernay is likely to be the first African American woman to receive a nomination. Reviews have been strong and its Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 100%.

It’s easy to see where they’d be a wide interest and I expect Selma’s debut to be strong. My main challenge here: I’ve yet to see a count of screens for its expansion Friday. For now, I’ll assume a roll out of around 2000 screens. If that’s the case, I look for a per screen average similar to the last picture that Oprah was involved with, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. 

That would get in the high teens for its opening a week before Oscar nominations are revealed.

Selma opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my Taken 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/taken-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Inherent Vice prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/inherent-vice-box-office-prediction/