With two new releases opening this weekend that no one seems overly enthusiastic about, it appears that it will be a rather quiet weekend at the box office financially. That doesn’t make the competition any less interesting. As I see it, there are four films that have legitimate shots at taking the #1 spot.

For the newcomers, we start with the action drama Snitch starring The Rock. Early reviews have actually been fairly decent and the lead has certainly had his share of hits. A lot of those of those moneymakers have been kids films and also Fast Five, a continuation of that franchise that would have made bank with or without The Rock’s involvement. The picture has been well-publicized and it may not hurt that the actor has gained exposure lately in the WWE, but I’m skeptical. This doesn’t seem like a movie to rush out and go see in the theater. Anything above $15 million would probably be a pleasant surprise for the studio. I don’t see it happening, but ya never know. It could surprise and open at the top.

It’s the weekend’s other new release that represents the biggest question mark for me: the PG-13 supernatural horror flick Dark Skies, starring Keri Russell. These types of pictures have a very recent history of grossing far more in their openings weekends than anticipated. It’s happened twice just in 2013 with Texas Chainsaw 3D and Mama. I believe there are differences with Skies. While Chainsaw has a brand name and Mama majorly appealed to a female audience, neither is likely to apply here. I actually think the film’s trailer is decent, however. Dark Skies has the potential to open much bigger than my estimate… like, much bigger. It could be #1. And to show you just how uncertain I am about this one, I wouldn’t be shocked if it opened quite a bit lower. This one’s a mystery.

Last weekend, we saw four movies open and now we’ll see how they hold up in their second go-rounds. The President’s Day weekend champ A Good Day to Die Hard actually opened a bit below most expectations (including mine). Its harsh reviews may have hindered its potential. Audiences actually seemed to like it well enough (it earned a B+ CinemaScore grade). The fifth John McClane could drop 50% or more, but I’m not so sure it’ll fall that far. It also could be #1 for the second week in a row.

The romantic drama Safe Haven exceeded most expectations (though it opened right around my estimate). This movie’s problem could be that it seemed tailor-made for Valentine’s Day weekend. It could experience a hefty drop.

The animated Escape from Planet Earth performed quite well and blew past my prediction. I actually expect this to have the smallest drop of any of the returning contenders.

Then there’s Beautiful Creatures, which I won’t even bother to make a projection on since it seems very unlikely to stay in the top six. It bombed at the box office and should continue to fade.

Finally, this brings us to Melissa McCarthy’s Identity Thief, now entering its third weekend. I have underestimated this film from the start. It opened way bigger two weeks than I thought and in its second weekend, it didn’t dropped as far as I figured. If Snitch and Dark Skies do not break out of the pack and Die Hard doesn’t surprise with a smaller than expected drop, there is a possibility that Thief will return to the top spot over the weekend. And that, my friends, is precisely what I’m predicting will occur.

Here are my predictions for this weekend’s box office:

1. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

2. A Good Day to Die Hard

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Snitch

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Escape from Planet Earth

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 30%)

5. Dark Skies

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Safe Haven

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)

As always, expect updates throughout the weekend and final numbers with my analysis on Sunday!

The long President’s Day weekend isn’t quite over and you’ve still got those Martin Van Buren cookies to bake, but the studios have come in with their estimates for the box office. So here we go:

With Valentine’s Day falling on Thursday, three news titles opened that day, with the animated Escape from Planet Earth bowing on Friday. As expected, A Good Day to Die Hard has opened at #1, though not as strong as many (including I) predicted. The fifth John McClane entry, which earned easily the worst reviews of the franchise, is estimated to gross $36.9 million over the five day span. This is below my $45.6M prediction. While critics were harsh, the picture’s CinemaScore grade was a decent B+, indicating audiences weren’t too bothered by it. Still, hefty drop-offs in future weekends seem likely.

Perfectly timed for Valentine’s Day, Safe Haven had a very strong debut with an estimated $33.3 million five day performance, edging out my $32.3M projection. I’ll take credit for my prediction on this one, though. After I posted my guesses on Wednesday, I noticed on Thursday that several other box office gurus had it going quite a bit lower. The combination of this being based on a Nicholas Sparks novel and Valentine’s Day seemed too good a combo not to reach big box office numbers. Having said that, don’t be surprised if it drops big next weekend.

While I’m proud of my Safe Haven number, I continue to underestimate Melissa McCarthy’s Identity Thief, which held up considerably better than I figured in its second weekend. The comedy looks poised to make $30.5 million over the five days, well higher than my $20.3M prediction.

For the weekend’s other two releases, I gave one too much credit and not enough to the other. Beautiful Creatures earned mixed reviews and was going after the Twilight crowd. It didn’t reach them. The picture bombed with an estimated $11.5 million over the five days, well below what I considered a meager $19.4M projection. Clearly, the advertising didn’t connect with audiences and the crowded marketplace didn’t help.

That crowded marketplace, however, does not include much for children to go see. And that fact helped propel the animated Escape From Planet Earth to a solid $21.1 million estimate, well above my $14.2M prediction.

Be sure to check back into my box office world this Wednesday as I predict next weekend, when the horror flick Dark Skies and the action thriller Snitch with The Rock open against the second weekends of Die Hard and Safe Haven. I’ll also probably be more generous to Identity Thief as it enters weekend #3. Stay tuned!

After the big holiday season complete with blockbusters (Skyfall, The Hobbit) and high grossing awards favorites (Lincoln, Django, Silver Linings Playbook), what usually follows is a dull January and early February.

2013 was no exception. There was one big hit (Mama), some medium-size performers (Hansel&Gretel, Texas Chainsaw 3D), and some big ol’ bombs (The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, Movie 43, Parker).

Last weekend saw Melissa McCarthy’s first headlining comedy Identity Thief break out in a major way with a $34.5 million opening, surpassing pretty much everyone’s expectations, including mine.

This weekend, the box office landscape changes with four major releases competing with Thief‘s second frame. Added to the dynamic: Valentine Day’s falls on Thursday, so all newbies are opening then. Furthermore, it’s President’s Day weekend (where a lot of potential moviegoers have Monday off). Therefore, instead of the normal three days, my box office predictions will be for the Thursday-Monday time period.

We begin with A Good Day to Die Hard, the fifth go-round for Bruce Willis as John McClane. Hard to believe, but it’s been 25 years since Mr. McClane battled Hans Gruber at Nakatomi Plaza. While 80s/90s action icons have had a miserable time recently (Ahnuld with Last Stand, Sly with Bullet to the Head), A Good Day to Die Hard should be much different. It’s a brand name, it’s well-publicized, and all four previous entries have been blockbusters. For the five day period, anything below $35 million would be considered disappointing. I believe the potential is certainly there for an opening of $50M plus, but I have a feeling it may open a bit lower than that.

The romantic drama Safe Haven with Josh Duhamel and Julianne Hough enters the fray, shrewdly positioning itself for Valentine’s Day. It’s based on a popular novel by Nicholas Sparks, whose romance novels have been turned into several pictures, including The Notebook. In the same box office weekend last year, The Vow with Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams made a killing with a $41 million opening. Safe Haven will probably not do those numbers (though it might), but it should have a rock solid opening with, I suspect, many “girls night out” outings and maybe even some fellas joining their gals to see it for Valentine’s Day. Those girls forcing their guys to go might have to see Die Hard later in the weekend, I bet.

Adding to the packed weekend is Beautiful Creatures, also based on a popular novel. The romantic fantasy film features Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson in supporting roles and has been heavily marketed. It’s definitely going after the Twilight crowd and is geared more towards females. Warner Bros. has hopes this will become a franchise. I’m not so sure. Opening Creatures against Haven is a serious risk since they’re both going after females. Its opening shouldn’t be bad, but it might not be enough to warrant further entries. Early reviews have been mixed.

Going after the kiddie crowd is the animated Escape from Planet Earth, from the Weinstein Company. This one seems to be flying under the radar and it seems highly unlikely to do Pixar or even Dreamworks numbers. Still, there is a serious lack of titles out that appeal to parents wanting to take the kiddos out. Earth has the potential to surpass my modest prediction, but I’m going with a relatively low opening.

And we have last weekend’s champ Identity Thief in the mix on its second weekend. It had a much larger than expected opening that solidified Melissa McCarthy’s box office draw. The CinemaScore grade of “B” is actually pretty low, however, indicating audiences didn’t exactly love it. Thief could drop 50%, but with no other comedy competition, I suspect the drop-off won’t be so pronounced.

And with all that, my predictions for the Valentine’s/President’s Day five-day box office weekend:

1. A Good to Die Hard

Predicted Gross: $45.6 million

2. Safe Haven

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

3. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Beautiful Creatures

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

5. Escape from Planet Earth

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

Whew. There’s your predictions, my friends. We’ll see what happens. Check my Facebook blog throughout the weekend for updates and on Monday when the final numbers roll in.

If this weekend’s East Coast blizzard had a negative effect on the box office, it sure didn’t seem to hinder the Melissa McCarthy comedy Identity Thief very much. In my predictions post this past Wednesday, I wrote that the film, costarring Jason Bateman, could gross anywhere from $16 to $36 million dollars. I chose to hedge my bets, though, with its negative reviews and predicted a $22.1 million opening, while stating it could go much bigger.

Well, I was wrong on my prediction and right about the much bigger part. Identity Thief grossed a terrific $34.6 million over the weekend frame, solidifying McCarthy’s status as a major comedic movie star. Her supporting role in 2011’s Bridesmaids (complete with an Oscar nomination) got the wheels in motion. Identity Thief and its fantastic opening puts her in another realm. The opening bodes well for her next features, the buddy cop comedy The Heat with Sandra Bullock. That movie was moved from April to June, signaling a high amount of confidence from the studio to put it in summer competition. Even if The Heat gets the kind of mediocre reviews Thief achieved, expect it to be a big player at the box office this summer. McCarthy’s box office success may be bad news for fans of her CBS sitcom “Mike&Molly”. You really have to wonder how long she stays on that program with her blossoming film career.

While Identity Thief was certainly a box office bright spot, all-around grosses were approximately 45% lower than the same weekend in 2012 when The Vow and Safe House both posted debuts above $40 million.

Steven Soderbergh’s generally well-reviewed Side Effects had a lackluster $9.3 million opening, lower than my $11.5M forecast. It was last weekend’s champ, Warm Bodies, that took the #2 position with an $11.4 million gross, slightly higher than my $10.6M estimate.

In fourth, Silver Linings Playbook made $6.9 million, just above my $6.4M projection and Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters was fifth in its third weekend with $5.8 million, a better hold than my $4M estimate.

Be sure to check back Wednesday for my forecast for next weekend when some heavy hitters enter the frame with four debuts: A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, Beautiful Creatures, and the animated Escape from Planet Earth. 

At the box office this weekend, we have a high profile comedy and a high profile director offering up new material, along with last weekend’s champ Warm Bodies entering its sophomore frame.

First up: Identity Thief, from the director of Horrible Bosses, starring Melissa McCarthy and Jason Bateman. It will be interesting to see McCarthy’s star power with this feature. This is her first vehicle in a starring role after making an enormous splash in a supporting role in 2011’s massive hit Bridesmaids. She even earned an Oscar nomination (rare for a comedic performance) for the role. While Bridesmaids received overwhelmingly positive reviews, Identity Thief has not been met with much critical acclaim. Still, McCarthy’s presence, some fairly effective trailers, and the absence of comedies over the last couple of months should help. I honestly believe Thief could gross as low as $16 million and as much as $36 million. My gut tells me it will be on the lower end of the spectrum, but I won’t be shocked if it outperforms my prediction.

Steven Soderbergh, the great director of Out of Sight, Traffic, and Contagion, is back with Side Effects, a psychological thriller starring Jude Law, Rooney Mara, and (paying attention ladies?…) Channing Tatum. Soderbergh has a spotty track record at the box office lately. While Contagion was a hit, his last feature (2012’s Haywire) grossed a weak $8 million in its opening frame. The marketing for Side Effects has been muted in my view, though the presence of Tatum and generally solid reviews does nothing but help. If audiences are still seeking out adult fare (which they’ve had in abundance lately), Effects could open higher than my rather meager prediction.

As for the leftovers likely to fill out the Top 5, the zombie comedy Warm Bodies enters its second weekend and I expect it to drop close to 50 percent. For the record… I predicted it would open at $20.5 million last weekend and it grossed $20.4 million. So… pat on the back for me! Silver Linings Playbook has remained in the Top 5 and experienced small declines from week to week. I expect that to continue. Finally, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, in its third frame, seems likely to drop over 50 percent, just as it did in its second weekend.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million

2. Side Effects

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

3. Warm Bodies

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 23%)

5. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

This weekend on the Facebook page, check for updates on Saturday and on the blog Sunday for final numbers!

Before your attention shifts to New Orleans and the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, we have some box office results to get to for the weekend.

As expected, the zombie comedy Warm Bodies opened atop the box office, grossing an estimated $20.4 million dollars in its opening weekend, right on target with my $20.5M projection. The picture earned solid reviews and a decent B+ Cinemascore grade from audiences and may have a decent holdup next weekend.

Last weekend’s winner Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters fell to second with $9.4 million, slightly above my $8.6M prediction. Oscar darling Silver Linings Playbook continues to exceed my expectations and came in third with $7.7 million, above my $6.6M estimate. In fourth place, I was right on the money with horror flick Mama earning $6.6 million (I said $6.7M). Zero Dark Thirty came in at the five post with $5.2 million, just under my $6M projection.

Sylvester Stallone’s Bullet to the Head performed a giant box office belly flop this weekend and the film had an even more pathetic opening than buddy Arnold Schwarzenegger’s bomb The Last Stand two weeks ago. Bullet managed just $4.5 million, well below my apparently generous $8 million estimate. The last three weeks have been brutal to generic action films, with Bullet, Stand, and Jason Statham’s Parker all flopping.

Finally, the Al Pacino pic Stand Up Guys opened on a small number of screens and made just $1.5 million, just above my $1.2 estimate.

Be sure to check back Wednesday for projections for next weekend when the Melissa McCarthy comedy Identity Thief and Steven Soderbergh directed thriller Side Effects made their debuts. Stay tuned and enjoy the Super Bowl!

Well, it’s Super Bowl weekend and conventional wisdom tells us it’ll probably be a pretty slow weekend at the box office. A lot of American moviegoers may be more focused on the Ravens and 49ers than the slate of films being offered up.

You never know, though. 2012’s Super Bowl weekend had two movies post very solid openings: the sci-fi flick Chronicle ($22 million opening) and the Daniel Radcliffe supernatural thriller The Woman in Black ($20.9 million opening).

The top spot this weekend is likely to be occupied by Warm Bodies, described as a “paranormal romantic zombie comedy”. It features no box office draws (though John Malkvoich and the hilarious Rob Cordry are in it), but it’s been heavily marketed by Summit Entertainment, the studio behind the juggernaut Twilight franchise. I expect it could post a nice weekend debut. It doesn’t hurt that the picture is also getting pretty darn good reviews.

This weekend’s other wide release is Bullet to the Head, an action flick starring Sylvester Stallone. It’s getting mixed reviews, not as positive as the critics reaction to Sly’s buddy Arnold Schwarzengger’s The Last Stand two weeks ago. And that movie bombed… bad. Stallone has been more successful in recent years with Expendables movies, but I’m not convinced Bullet will break out of the pack and do the kind of numbers those films put up. It just doesn’t look like anything special and with similar action titles like The Last Stand and Parker faltering, I would expect the same fate here.

Opening on only approximately 450 screens, Stand Up Guys features an impressive cast with Al Pacino, Christopher Walken, and Alan Arkin. Yet again, with its small release, I don’t see it doing much and the studio seems to have little faith in it.

As far as holdovers, I’d be surprised if last week’s champ, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, doesn’t fall 50% or more in its sophomore frame. The same holds true was last week’s #2, the horror flick Mama, entering its third weekend. Oscar darling Silver Linings Playbook is likely to experience a smaller drop. I would say the same for Zero Dark Thirty. 

And with that, my box office predictions for the weekend:

1. Warm Bodies

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million

2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. Bullet to the Head

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Mama

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

Finally, opening on that small number of screens, I’ll say Stand Up Guys grosses $1.2 million for a not-so stand-up opening.

That’s all, my friends. Check back over the weekend for updates and on Sunday for final numbers!

 

Box office results for the weekend are in and Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters ended up on top, surpassing my low estimate for its opening. The badly reviewed pic, starring Jeremy Renner, earned a so-so $19 million, well past my low ball $13 million prediction. I wouldn’t expect it to hold up too well in future weekends, however.

Last weekend’s #1, the supernatural horror flick Mama, dropped more than I figured, grossing $12.9 million in its second frame, lower than my $16.8M estimate. Multiple Oscar nominee Silver Linings Playbook placed third with $10 million, slightly more than my $8.7M estimate. Multiple Oscar nominee Zero Dark Thirty was fourth with $9.8 million, lower than my $12.3M forecast.

Two other debuts had weak openings. The Jason Statham-Jennifer Lopez action pic Parker placed fifth with $7 million, slightly higher than my $6.1M prediction. In a tie for sixth, the terribly reviewed all-star comedy Movie 43 and Django Unchained made $5 million, both lower than my respective $5.8M and $6.1M predictions.

I also overestimated the holdover films placed 8-10: Gangster Squad earned $4.2 million ($5.4M estimate), Broken City dropped to $4 million in its second weekend ($5.1M estimate), and Les Miserables was tenth with $3.9 million ($6.3M estimate).

Be sure to check back Wednesday with predictions for Super Bowl weekend, when the zombie pic Warm Bodies, the Stallone actioner Bullet to the Head, and the Pacino/Walken action comedy Stand Up Guys all make their debut.

For the final weekend of January, we have three new releases opening: Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters with Jeremy Renner, Parker starring Jason Statham and Jennifer Lopez, and the raunchy comedy Movie 43, featuring an array of stars including Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry, among many others.

I do not anticipate solid openings for any three. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters seems most likely the be first among the three, though I do not anticipate an opening that will be considered very good.

Jason Statham flicks typically don’t open too well and Jennifer Lopez’s movie career has been pretty shoddy as of late, so I don’t anticipate her presence will have much of an effect. With a recent glut of action flicks crowded the marketplace (Schwarzenegger’s Last Stand bombed last weekend) doesn’t help.

Movie 43, even with its all-star cast, doesn’t seem to make much an impression with its trailers. It’s hard to even tell what the whole thing is about and I don’t see audiences rushing out to this, even with a low amount of comedies out there.

All three pictures could easily struggle to match the grosses of last weekend’s #1 and #2, the Jessica Chastain horror flick Mama and the Jessica Chastain Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty. Opening with an incredible $32 million last weekend, Mama will likely suffer the fate of most horror pics and have a hefty second weekend drop-off. If the other newbies disappoint, however, it maintains a healthy shot at staying #1. Zero Dark Thirty only dropped 23 percent in its second weekend, an impressive hold. In its third weekend, I expect a bigger drop but it’s posting great numbers. Last weekend’s #3 was the expanded release of multiple Oscar nominated romantic drama-comedy Silver Linings Playbook and I expect its drop-off to be fairly light. Finally, holdovers like Gangster Squad, Broken City, and Django Unchained will experience drop-offs from the mid-3os to high-40s, in my estimation. Les Miserables only dropped a puny 6% last weekend (thanks to Oscar nominations). It should certainly drop way more than that, but its drop-off could be much lower than others.

Again, all new entries could have the ability to surprise with solid openings and my predictions for all three are probably on the low end of the spectrum, but I just don’t see any of them breaking out.

And with that, my weekend box office predictions:

1. Mama

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Parker

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

7. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 34%)

8. Movie 43

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

9. Gangster Squad

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

10. Broken City

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

That’s all for now folks! Check back through the weekend for updates and on Sunday for final results…

 

Box office weekend estimates are in a day earlier than I figured so let’s discuss, shall we?

Two immediate takeaways: Mama rules and Arnold drools. That’s a very elementary way of explanation, so let’s dig deeper. The PG-13 horror flick Mama clearly benefited from its rating and appeal to female moviegoers. I figured it’d be #1 this weekend, but way underestimated its potential. The Jessica Chastain flick earned an astonishing $33.2 million over the holiday weekend. If you’re thinking Sunday and Monday haven’t really happened yet, good job! These are estimates, but they rarely are wrong (maybe a few hundred thousand off, if that). That opening weekend is well above my puny $18.2 million projection. Mama received a low “B-” Cinemascore grade, which indicates a hefty drop could come next weekend. With a budget of only $15 million, though, Mama is a gargantuan hit.

In second, as predicted, is Zero Dark Thirty. It held up better than prediction with $21.4 million (I said $16.2M). Another Oscar contender, Silver Linings Playbook, also exceeded my expectations. For a third place showing, Playbook made $14.2 million (higher than my $11.4M forecast).

Mark Wahlberg had a nice 2012 with Contraband and Ted. That streak has ended. His thriller Broken City, co-starring Russell Crowe, had a very disappointing weekend with $10 million, well below my modest $15.3M projection. I thought the trailers for the film made it look like a “wait for HBO” picture, but I didn’t think it’d do this poorly. With mediocre reviews, Broken City should fade fast. Also earning around $10 million is Gangster Squad in its second weekend, beating my $8M estimate. The second weekend of the comedy A Haunted House made around $9 million, a little higher than my $8.4M projection.

And last… and least… Arnold Schwarzenegger’s The Last Stand. Wow. It opened on more screens than any other newbie this weekend. It also seemed to have the most commercials and was getting publicity as Arnold’s comeback film. This was his first starring vehicle in ten years. There’s no sugarcoating possible: The Last Stand had a pathetic opening weekend, grossing only $7.4 million for a ninth place showing. Clearly, audiences were in no mood to the welcome the Governator back to theaters. I predicted it would not do well by making $14 million (that would’ve been pretty disappointing too!). With Arnold working on several other projects, one has to wonder whether some of them may go the “straight to DVD” route (something that would’ve been unfathomable to think of with Schwarzenegger a decade ago).

That’s all for now, my friends. On Wednesday, box office results for next weekend when Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Parker, and Movie 43 join the mix.