There are four high-profile titles coming to the multiplex this weekend, but I’m starting to believe Warner Bros. The Conjuring could take the top spot when all is said and done.

Why? For one thing, horror/supernatural flicks are a hot commodity right now. In June, The Purge grossed an impressive $34 million in its first weekend. In January, Mama greatly exceeded expectations with a $28 million debut.

The Conjuring, starring Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga, comes from Saw and Insidious director James Wan. And it just may have more going for it than the two previously mentioned 2013 horror hits. Unlike most horror flicks, The Conjuring is receiving surprisingly glowing reviews. It currently sits at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes… something practically unheard of for a picture of its genre.

Whether that translates into an opening on par with The Purge is a good question. Horror films tend to have big openings and suffer huge drops in their second weekend. The Conjuring could be an exception to the rule in that it may not have the significant percentage drops in subsequent weekends due to solid word-of-mouth.

I see The Conjuring debuting to no lower than in the mid-twenties range. However, I feel good buzz surrounding it will propel the film to a larger debut (right in Purge range).

The Conjuring opening weekend prediction: $35.3 million

There are four new films opening this week. For my prediction on Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

In the last month, family audiences have been treated to two animated sequel behemoths, Monsters University and Despicable Me 2. Both titles are on their way to grossing over $300 million domestically.

This leaves an open question for Dreamworks Turbo, opening Wednesday: will parents and their kiddos turn out for this? Featuring the voices of Ryan Reynolds, Paul Giamatti, Michael Pena, Snoop Dogg (or Lion), Samuel L. Jackson, and many others, Turbo seems geared towards the boys of the family with its racing theme. The film’s tagline (“He’s Fast. They’re Furious.” is no accident).

Dreamworks is planning to parlay Turbo into an animated Netflix series later this year so they’re clearly hoping for solid box office returns stateside. First things first: Turbo has zero chance of reaching the level of the animated sequels that have ruled the #1 spot at the box office for the past four weeks.

A more likely scenario is Turbo opening to what The Croods and Epic did earlier in the year. The Croods took in $43 million during its opening weekend in March and Epic posted $33 million in May. Keep in mind that Turbo opens Wednesday so this prediction will be for its five-day gross.

Even with the five-day figure, I’m having a hard time seeing Turbo earning more than The Croods did in its three-day opening. I do believe that Monsters University and the second Despicable Me may keep a significant percentage of family audiences away, but it should still have a rather respectable opening.

Turbo opening weekend prediction (five-day gross): $42.8 million

There are four titles opening this week. For my prediction on how The Conjuring will do, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

It was the minions ruling the box office for the second weekend in a row, while Adam Sandler got a much needed hit and Pacific Rim opened right in line with my expectations.

Despicable Me 2 earned $44.8 million to remain at the top spot in its sophomore frame. This was right in line with my $45.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a fantastic $229 million so far and looks to soar well past the $300 million mark.

It was Adam Sandler and his buddies that outdid my expectations. The star’s first ever sequel, Grown Ups 2, grossed an impressive $42.5 million for second place, well above my modest $32.3M estimate. This is great news for Sandler, who needed a hit after the back to back flops Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy.

Giullermo del Toro’s Pacific Rim had to settle for third with a so-so $38.3 million debut, which was right in range with my $39.7M projection. The big budget monster flick will need hefty international grosses and strong legs domestically to get into profitability mode.

Rounding out the top five, The Heat was fourth with $14 million (I said $14.2M) and The Lone Ranger fell even further than I figured in its second weekend with $11.1 million (I said $13.8M).

Be sure to check the blog starting later today when I’ll do posts projecting the openings of four (yes, four) new entries for next weekend: Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. Stay tuned!

This weekend at the box office, I am predicting that an animated sequel will be #1 for the fourth weekend in a row. That means Despicable Me 2 is my selection to repeat at the top spot (Monsters University was 1st for two weeks prior). Well-received animated features rarely drop 50% or more in their sophomore frames and I don’t expect this one to.

My forecast means that I am not predicting Pacific Rim to open as big as some expect. While my prediction reflects a fairly decent opening, I see it doing below $40 million. My full blog post outlining my Pacific prediction can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is Adam Sandler’s first sequel, Grown Ups 2. In this case, I don’t see it matching the $40 million debut that its predecessor earned in 2010. My full forecast on Grown Ups 2 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/grown-ups-2-box-office-prediction/

Last weekend, Disney’s The Lone Ranger debuted to very disappointing results. I also wrote an extensive post about its failure right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/the-lone-ranger-bombs-an-analysis/

In its second weekend, Ranger is likely to lose more than half its audience. If so, this may well allow The Heat to only drop to fourth with Ranger rounding out the top five.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

2. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

3. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

4. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Lone Ranger

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook page over the weekend with a full blog report Sunday. And I’ll be back with more box office predictions very soon for next weekend when FOUR titles open – Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. Stay tuned!

There were probably a lot of long faces today at the Disney headquarters and they didn’t all belong to Goofy. This is due to a box office performance that simply cannot be spun positively. The Lone Ranger is a bomb. A big one. Yes, there’s been disappointments this summer such as After Earth and White House Down, but Ranger is the most high-profile one yet.

Why? Well, several reasons as I see it and it’s difficult to determine which factors most contributed to its failure. Most likely, the answer is a combination of all of them. For starters, the decision to open Ranger against the animated juggernaut Despicable Me 2 now looks like a bad idea. Ranger earned $29.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday weekend and $48.7 million since its Wednesday debut. By contrast, Despicable Me 2 nearly tripled that gross, with $83.5 million over Friday to Sunday and $143 million since its Wednesday bow. If you would’ve told me that would have been the case two months ago, I would have said you were crazy. Ranger was marketed toward a family audience and it’s clear now a whole lot of families had already made their weekend pick: the minions.

To add insult to injury, think about this: the Ethan Hawke sci-fi horror flick The Purge earned $34 million in its opener this summer. That’s $5 million more than Ranger‘s traditional weekend gross. The Purge cost $3 million to produce. The Lone Ranger cost at least $215 million. Wow.

There will be those who will try to claim The Lone Ranger wasn’t successful because it’s not a sequel and part of an already established franchise. They will say it’s increasingly impossible for pictures like that to do well in the summer movie season. I don’t buy it. All you need to do is look at a picture like Now You See Me this season, which had no bankable stars and certainly wasn’t a franchise movie. It has grossed a terrific $110 million so far domestically.

Speaking of bankable stars, Ranger has one and that’s where we get to another factor. Are audiences beginning to tire of Johnny Depp? Certainly, it seems they’re starting to tire of his career choices. Last summer’s Dark Shadows was the weakest of his many collaborations with director Tim Burton, in my view. Audiences rejected it and it grossed an underwhelming $79 million domestically. Back in the day, critics would go out of their way to praise Depp’s acting even if they didn’t care for the film itself. With Ranger, critics are singling out Depp’s performance as a weak spot. With two duds in a row, Depp is returning to the Jack Sparrow well, signing on for a fifth Pirates of the Caribbean pic. The fourth entry, On Stranger Tides from summer 2011, was the lowest grossing of the series (it still made $241 million, but that’s $68 million less than the third). Don’t be surprised if the fifth adventure is the new lowest grosser of the franchise. Crowds seem to be even growing weary of Depp’s signature character.

All of the factors I’ve mentioned are indeed important, but sometimes you can simplify it greatly. Here goes: The Lone Ranger didn’t look very good. There wasn’t one trailer which left me with a strong desire to see it. You could clearly see it was going for a Pirates vibe but when the trailer doesn’t provide any memorable moments, that’s usually a bad sign.

If you’re Disney, the moping is unlikely to last very long. This is, keep in mind, the studio that owns Marvel and will also distribute the upcoming Star Wars entries. Any hope, however, of seeing Depp back in Tonto makeup is about as likely as After Earth 2, Battleship 2, White House Down Again, or Howard the Duck Returns.

After nearly 20 years of many comedy hits (and some misses), Grown Ups 2 marks a surprising first for the star: a sequel. The 2010 original teamed Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, and David Spade and the results were quite positive for Columbia Pictures. Grown Ups earned $40 million in its debut in summer 2010 and went on to gross $162 million domestically.

Still an important question remains: are audiences really clamoring for a sequel to this? I’m not so sure. However, only The Heat is out there in what will be its third weekend as far as direct competition. It is worth noting that Sandler’s last two live-action comedies (Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy) were commercial disappointments, but Grown Ups 2 should have a somewhat significant built-in audience.

Could it earn more than the $40 million its predecessor made first weekend out? Sure but I don’t think it will. A debut in the early 30s seems more plausible as I believe some moviegoers simply won’t be overly eager to see the gang return. Still – respectable business seems likely.

Grown Ups 2 box office prediction: $32.3 million

For my prediction of the weekend’s other new release, Pacific Rim, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

Guillermo del Toro’s Pacific Rim represents a major gamble on the part of Warner Bros. The science fiction action pic, del Toro’s ode to giant monster movies, comes with a reported $180 million budget. It has no stars and, unlike most summer pics, is not based on any well-known property.

Due to all of that, predicting the opening weekend for Pacific Rim is a tricky proposition. It’s certainly had a lively marketing campaign and I can’t see it doing anything below $30 million. I also can’t help but wonder if certain moviegoers will treat Rim with ambivalence. Those who aren’t aware that del Toro is responsible for the visually stunning Hellboy films and Pan’s Labyrinth may simply look at the pic as a Transformers knock-off and decide to skip it. I would be surprised if Rim earns over $50 million in its debut, though I’d say its chances of doing better than I expect are better than doing less.

That leaves a range between $30 and $50 million as I see it. I’ll pretty go right down the middle here. A gross around $40M will likely be greeted as a decent debut, but not much else.

Pacific Rim opening weekend prediction: $39.7 million

For my prediction on how this weekend’s other opener, Grown Ups 2, will perform – click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/grown-ups-2-box-office-prediction/

Gru and the minions had a sensational debut over the holiday weekend, while moviegoers seemed disinterested in Johnny Depp as Tonto in The Lone Ranger.

Despicable Me 2 blew past expectations with a $82.5 million weekend debut and $142.1 million over the five-day holiday frame. This is well above my projections of $61.3M and $104.8M, respectively. Clearly audiences were quite ready for the sequel to the 2010 animated hit.

Meanwhile, Disney’s The Lone Ranger is already a box office dud. It debuted to a weak $29.4 million over the weekend with $46.9 million over the five-day, well below my projections of $37.8M and $63.9M, respectively.

The Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy comedy The Heat held up slightly better than expected with $25 million, just above my $23.7M projection. Despicable took a bigger bite out of Monsters University than I expected. The Pixar flick dropped to fourth with $19.6 million, below my $25 million estimate. Rounding out the top five, World War Z earned $18.2 million, above my $15M projection. Outside of the top five, the Kevin Hart stand-up concert film Let Me Explain earned a robust $17.5 million over the five-day holiday frame.

Be sure to check back soon for box office projections for next weekend’s openers, Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2!

During this Fourth of July holiday weekend, there figures to be some bustling activity as Despicable Me 2 and The Lone Ranger open today while holdovers Monsters University, The Heat, and World War Z look to round out the top five.

Earlier this week, I posted my five-day prediction on how Gru and the minions will perform over the holiday weekend. It can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/despicable-me-2-box-office-prediction/

I also wrote my detailed projection on how Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer will fare with The Lone Ranger. That post can be read here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/the-lone-ranger-box-office-prediction/

An expected huge opening for Despicable Me 2 may well cut into the grosses of Monsters University in its third weekend, but I still expect it to not lose half its audience. Likewise, the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy comedy The Heat will likely have a fairly small drop as well. World War Z seems poised to lose about half its audience in its third weekend.

And with that, here’s my predictions for the holiday weekend’s Top Five:

1. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $61.3 million (projected five-day opening: $104.8 million)

2. The Lone Ranger

Predicted Gross: $37.8 million (projected five-day opening: $63.9 million)

3. Monsters University

Predicted Gross: $25 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. World War Z

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll be posting updates on the Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results on the blog on Sunday!

It’s got Johnny Depp reuniting with his Pirates of the Caribbean director Gore Verbinski and there’s certainly been no shortage of promotion, but whether The Lone Ranger performs well at the box office seems to be an open question right now.

Opening Wednesday, Ranger has been plagued by negative press for quite some time. It’s worth mentioning that its bad press (mostly about budget overruns) is similar to the kind of press World War Z received. And that picture is doing quite well domestically and worldwide.

The price tag for Ranger is reportedly around $250 million so its domestic and foreign numbers will need to be very strong. As mentioned, the combination of director Verbinski (who made the first three Pirates flick) and star Depp (playing Tonto) has been lucrative.

However, beyond its less than glowing press coverage, The Lone Ranger may have other issues. First and foremost, it’s starting to seem as if opening against Despicable Me 2 might be a mistake. That animated sequel looks in position to post huge holiday weekend numbers and Lone Ranger is competing for much of that same family audience. My prediction post on Despicable Me 2 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/despicable-me-2-box-office-prediction/

Secondly, I don’t really think the trailers look that good and I’m not convinced audiences will rush out to this like they did for Pirates. 

So, what kind of numbers are we talking here? The range on Ranger is massive. Over its first five days, I would say $90 million would be the ceiling. I’ll be truly surprised if its does over that figure. A number like $75 million is certainly possible and would be considered a fairly decent opening (you gotta keep in mind with the pedigree and budget involved, the numbers game is changed here… in case you’re wondering why $75M would only be considered decent). I think it’ll dip below that though. And anything below $75M will be considered a big letdown for Disney. My prediction reflects Depp’s Tonto and Armie Hammer’s Ranger falling far short of Gru and his minions for a second place showing over the holiday weekend.

The Lone Ranger opening prediction: $63.9 million

Be sure to check back Tuesday for my predictions on the weekend’s top five.