Box Office Predictions: January 25-27

For the final weekend of January, we have three new releases opening: Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters with Jeremy Renner, Parker starring Jason Statham and Jennifer Lopez, and the raunchy comedy Movie 43, featuring an array of stars including Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry, among many others.

I do not anticipate solid openings for any three. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters seems most likely the be first among the three, though I do not anticipate an opening that will be considered very good.

Jason Statham flicks typically don’t open too well and Jennifer Lopez’s movie career has been pretty shoddy as of late, so I don’t anticipate her presence will have much of an effect. With a recent glut of action flicks crowded the marketplace (Schwarzenegger’s Last Stand bombed last weekend) doesn’t help.

Movie 43, even with its all-star cast, doesn’t seem to make much an impression with its trailers. It’s hard to even tell what the whole thing is about and I don’t see audiences rushing out to this, even with a low amount of comedies out there.

All three pictures could easily struggle to match the grosses of last weekend’s #1 and #2, the Jessica Chastain horror flick Mama and the Jessica Chastain Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty. Opening with an incredible $32 million last weekend, Mama will likely suffer the fate of most horror pics and have a hefty second weekend drop-off. If the other newbies disappoint, however, it maintains a healthy shot at staying #1. Zero Dark Thirty only dropped 23 percent in its second weekend, an impressive hold. In its third weekend, I expect a bigger drop but it’s posting great numbers. Last weekend’s #3 was the expanded release of multiple Oscar nominated romantic drama-comedy Silver Linings Playbook and I expect its drop-off to be fairly light. Finally, holdovers like Gangster Squad, Broken City, and Django Unchained will experience drop-offs from the mid-3os to high-40s, in my estimation. Les Miserables only dropped a puny 6% last weekend (thanks to Oscar nominations). It should certainly drop way more than that, but its drop-off could be much lower than others.

Again, all new entries could have the ability to surprise with solid openings and my predictions for all three are probably on the low end of the spectrum, but I just don’t see any of them breaking out.

And with that, my weekend box office predictions:

1. Mama

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Parker

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

7. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 34%)

8. Movie 43

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

9. Gangster Squad

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

10. Broken City

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

That’s all for now folks! Check back through the weekend for updates and on Sunday for final results…

 

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