With three new high-profile releases and an Oscar darling tripling its screen count along with the second frames of last weekend’s #1, 2, and 3 pictures, it is a very crowded weekend at the box office. Depending on if certain films over or under perform, there is a reasonable yet fairly remote possibility that any of five movies could sit at #1.

It is the Martin Luther King holiday weekend so my estimates will be for the four-day weekend as opposed to the usual three.

For new offerings, we have Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first starring role in nearly a decade, The Last Stand. The action flick marks his first headlining feature since 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines. As you may have heard, Arnie’s been busy doing other things over the past decade. The big question: will audiences flock to see the Governator (now a 65 year-old man) back in action? My answer: I doubt it. With a lot of competition out there, my prediction will reflect The Last Stand making the least amount of money out of the three new offerings. But I could be wrong.

Next we have the political thriller Broken City, with Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe. It’s certainly got a high-profile cast in its favor and Wahlberg is on a hot streak with two hits last year, Contraband and Ted. I’m skeptical as to how this film will perform, despite its pedigree. While Contraband opened in January of last year with an impressive $28 million dollar weekend, the trailers for Broken City don’t look as action-oriented as that picture. I’m not sure this seems like a “rush out and go see” type film and reviews haven’t even come out yet (two days prior to opening) meaning the studio may not have a whole lot of confidence in it. Still, the actors alone should push it to an OK debut. Or it might exceed my lower end expectations and I could be wrong.

That brings us to Mama, this weekend’s PG-13 horror offering that’s produced by Guillermo Del Toro and stars Jessica Chastain, who’s currently winning Golden Globes and getting Oscar nominations for Zero Dark Thirty. Horror films tend to open well in January, as evidence by the $21 million dollar opening of Texas Chainsaw 3D just two weeks ago. I underestimated the performance of that film and I am trying to avoid that this time around. It’s not just that, however. Mama has some talented people behind it and the trailers are pretty effective. Also in its favor: it seems like the type of horror flick that may attract a sizable female audience, which is not always the case. While any three of the new offerings could open #1, I’m going with Mama for the win. Or I could be wrong.

Speaking of Zero Dark Thirty, that film enters its second weekend in wide release. It opened last weekend at #1 with a solid $24 million debut. I don’t expect it to have a huge drop-off due to its continuing awards and word-of-mouth buzz. If Mama doesn’t do as well as I think it could along with the two other new entries, Zero Dark Thirty has a shot at staying number one. As for the two other films entering their second weekends, I anticipate bigger slides for A Haunted House and Gangster Squad.

Finally, Silver Linings Playbook, starring Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Robert De Niro, enters its first weekend of wide release. The multiple Oscar-nominated picture has been in larger markets for several weeks, but it’s been in less than a 1000 theaters the whole time. This weekend, it expands to approximately 2500 theaters and it should certainly see its strongest performance yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Mama

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

2. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Broken City

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. The Last Stand

Predicted Gross: $14 million

5. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

6. Gangster Squad

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

7. A Haunted House

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

As always, I’ll have updates on my blog’s Facebook page through the weekend and a full update on Monday (instead of normal Sunday) when the numbers come in.

The box office results for the weekend are in and while I overestimated the performance of Zero Dark Thirty, it still opened #1 and did quite well.

Kathryn Bigelow’s Bin Laden manhunt epic earned $24 million in its first wide frame, below my generous $29.1M projection. Still, the film looks poised for a healthy run, especially with its strong showing when the Oscar nominations were released (even though director Bigelow was unexpectedly snubbed).

The comedy spoof A Haunted House did way better than I predicted, well exceeding modest expectations. House opened at #2 with an impressive $18.8 million, well above my $10.8M prediction. The film is likely to drop big next weekend, but with a tiny budget, the picture is already a major financial success.

Gangster Squad, with its A-list cast including Ryan Gosling and Sean Penn, had a disappointing third place showing, earning $16.7 million, four million lower than my $20.7M prediction. Pretty much everyone, including me, had it projected opening second. No real way to spin it. This is a weak opening for Squad.

For the four-six slots, Django Unchained took in $11.1 million (lower than my $13.2M projection), Les Miserables made $10.1 million (slightly better than my $9.5M guess), and The Hobbit made $9.1 million (slightly lower than my $9.5M projection). Finally, I predicted last weekend’s #1 Texas Chainsaw 3D would fall big time from #1 to #7. It actually fell even worse, plummeting from the top spot to #9. It earned only $5.2 million in its second frame, lower than my $7.6M projection.

Another note: Silver Linings Playbook saw a 38% boost in its performance, no doubt due to its success with Oscar nominations. It took in $5 million this weekend and will triple its theater count next weekend.

Be sure to check back Wednesday for next weekend’s projections, when the Mark Wahlberg-Russell Crowe thriller Broken City, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s The Last Stand, and the horror flick Mama all debut.

The first weekend of 2013 at the box office gave us only one new major release, Texas Chainsaw 3D, to mix in with the holiday leftovers. The Leatherface saga exceeded most expectations, including my own, and had a solid opening of nearly $22 million. The second weekend of 2013 brings three new offerings: Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, the 30s era shoot-em-up Gangster Squad, and A Haunted House, a horror spoof starring Shawn Wayans.

Zero Dark Thirty, about the raid to kill Osama Bin Laden, has been in the news a lot lately, in addition to receiving heavy Oscar buzz. Starring Jessica Chastain in an Academy-buzzed about performance, the film has been scorching at the box office in its limited release. That does not always translate to big numbers upon wide release, but I believe the factors are there for a hefty haul this weekend. It doesn’t hurt that Oscar nominations come out Thursday and it will likely receive Picture and Director nominations the day before its release.

Gangster Squad features an all-star cast including Ryan Gosling, Josh Brolin, Emma Stone, and Sean Penn. The film was originally scheduled for release in October 2012, but was delayed after the tragic theater shooting in Colorado. A scene showing violence in a movie house was edited out. Squad looks to capitalize on its cast and pretty effective trailer. It’s been met with mixed reviews, however, and its buzz doesn’t seem to be real strong. I expect a fairly decent opening, though nothing spectacular.

Last and probably least is the horror spoof A Haunted House starring Shawn Wayans. Granted, the combo of Wayans + horror spoof has worked quite well before with the Scary Movie flicks. This one seems to be flying under the radar, though and I don’t expect big business here. It’s a tough one to call – it could potentially over or under perform my prediction, so I’ll keep it in the middle range of its possibilities.

I would expect typical mid 30s-mid 40s dropoffs for the holiday holdovers. There is an exception. Horror flicks tend to open big and drop huge in their second weekend. I expect this is the fate Texas Chainsaw 3D will experience. My predictions reflect a rare slide, from the #1 spot to seventh.

And with that, my weekend predictions:

1. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million

2. Gangster Squad

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

3. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. A Haunted House

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

7. Texas Chainsaw 3D

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 65%)

There you have it… check the blog’s Facebook page for updates this weekend and the blog for final results on Sunday!

Audiences ended the three-week reign of The Hobbit at the top of the box office charts and ushered in a new #1 in the form of Leatherface.

Texas Chainsaw 3D debuted in first place, grossing $23 million, well above my modest $16.1M projection and #4 opening prediction. Horror films are generally tough to predict and, more often than not, they make more than expected. While the opening is impressive, horror films like Chainsaw often experience huge drop-offs in their second weekend and I would expect that to happen in this case.

Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained held at #2, as I predicted. It earned $20.1 million, right on course with my $20.6M projection. With over $100 million domestically in 10 days, Django is poised to pass Inglourious Basterds as Quentin’s highest grossing film in the United States.

I wrongly predicted The Hobbit would hold at #1 and gross $20.8 million. It fell further than I figured, grossing $17.5M for a third place finish.

Les Miserables also fell a bit further than my projection. At fourth, it made $16.1 million, lower than my $18.8M estimate.

The next three holiday holdovers all held close to my prediction margin: at fifth, Parental Guidance with $10.1 million (my projection: $10.2M). At sixth, Jack Reacher with $9.3 million (my projection: $9M). At seventh, This Is 40 with $8.6 million (my projection: $7.8M).

Finally, I was right on target with the other two pictures that opened wider. Matt Damon’s Promised Land failed to capture a decent audience, earning $4.3 million (I projected $4.2M). The Naomi Watts tsunami drama The Impossible was on a lower amount of screens and did an OK $2.8 million (I projected $2.6M).

Be sure to check back Wednesday for my predictions for next weekend, when the buzzed about Zero Dark Thirty is finally released nationwide and Gangster Squad come out.

Hollywood has just received some great news that 2012 was the biggest year in box office history, thanks to The Avengers, Batman, teenage vampires, James Bond, The Hunger Games, and a slew of more adult-themed pictures that performed quite well, from Lincoln to Argo to Life of Pi and so on.

The first box office weekend of 2013 only brings us three new wide releases entries, the horror flick Texas Chainsaw 3D, the tsunami drama The Impossible with Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor and Promised Land with Matt Damon, known mostly as the anti-fracking movie.

January was often seen as a dumping ground for films that the studios don’t have a great deal of confidence in. In recent years, however, several pictures have managed to do robust business, including last year’s The Grey with Liam Neeson and Contraband with Mark Wahlberg.

In fact, the first weekend of 2012 brought a true box office surprise: the very unexpected huge opening of the horror flick The Devil Inside, which astonished the industry with a $33.7 million opening weekend. What does this mean for Texas Chainsaw 3D? Hard to tell. Horror flicks are often difficult to predict. The Devil Inside did have a really effective trailer which got audiences to the multiplex. I don’t believe the same can be said for Chainsaw. While it is a brand name, I’m not sure audiences are too thrilled for this one. My estimate will reflect that sentiment, but I would not be shocked if it earns more than expected. It could also learn less. It’s a tough one to call.

The Impossible has garnered positive reviews and big box office overseas. Still, the crowded marketplace may limit its box office possibilities stateside. If it garners Oscar nominations next week, it could have substantial legs, but I don’t anticipate a big opening this weekend.

I simply do not see a lot of anticipation for Promised Land, director Gus Van Sant’s drama starring Matt Damon. It hasn’t been too heavily marketed (other than some news stories on its apparent anti-fracking message) and reviews have been mixed. Damon is a star, but his track record at the box office is spotty. I don’t see it making much of a splash this weekend.

The real drama this weekend might be a three-way battle at the top between The Hobbit, Django Unchained, and Les Miserables, just as we saw over the Christmas holiday. All three have been received well by audiences and figure to have relatively small percentage drops. I will maintain that it will be a race between those pictures, with the caveat that Leatherface and his chainsaw could surprise.

With that, here are my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

2. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)

4. Texas Chainsaw 3D

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

5. Parental Guidance

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 35%)

7. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

My prediction for The Impossible is $2.6 million, in part so low because it only opens on about 500 screens. I will estimate that Promised Land opens softly, with an opening weekend of $4.2 million.

Make sure to check back Sunday when the grosses roll in and I’ll update on my Facebook blog page with updates on how it’s looking!

Well, the previous weekend I was too generous in predicting box office performances. Over the Christmas holiday, it turns out I was quite a Scrooge and definitely was not generous enough. Every title I predicted did better (in some cases, much better) than my predictions and led Hollywood to a very Merry Christmas.

I did manage to correctly predict that Les Miserables would earn the most money over the six days. However, while I guessed a weekend gross $29.4 million and a six day gross of $47.1 million, the film managed to vastly over and somewhat under perform my estimates. The movie’s three estimate is $28 million, which actually makes it #3 for the weekend, but the six day gross was an amazing $67.4 million. That pretty much means audiences were rushing out to see it immediately. While it didn’t win the weekend itself, it won the six-day holiday marathon.

Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained gave the director another massive hit. It came in second, earning $30.6 million over the weekend (higher than my $27.2M prediction) and $64 million over the six day (much higher than my $44.6M estimate).

Somewhat surprisingly, it was The Hobbit that remained #1 for the third straight weekend. The Tolkien tale made $32.9 million (above my $26.5M) for the three day and $65.6 million over the six day (above my modest $43.8M projection). With $222 million in the bank domestically, the picture may just do Lord of the Rings numbers after all, but that remains to be seen.

Clearly, I underestimated the audience for the Billy Crystal-Bette Midler comedy Parental Guidance. It opened to middling reviews, but managed to have a rock solid debut, earning $14.8 million over the three day (above my $10.9 prediction) and a great $29.5 million over the six day (well above my $17.7M projection).

Additionally, two other holdovers held up better than I figured. Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher dipped only 10% for a $14 million weekend gross (I guessed $11.6M) and a $26.6 million six day, above my $20.8M projection. Even more surprisingly, the Judd Apatow comedy actually gained 14% from last weekend, making $13.1 million for the weekend (much better than my measly $8M prediction) and $23.8 million for the six day, well above my $14.6M projection.

I will readily admit that I didn’t anticipate the huge business done on Christmas day and the following two days. Everything performed a heck of a lot better than I figured. Mental note: be more giving when it comes to Christmas box office grosses.

I’ll be back Thursday in prediction land, as all these titles try not to drop too far and three new titles open nationwide: Texas Chainsaw 3D, the tsunami drama The Impossible with Naomi Watts, and the anti-fracking film Promised Land with Matt Damon. Stay tuned.

I’m just going to get this out of the way first: predicting the Christmas holiday box office is EXTREMELY difficult. It’s been made even tougher this year due to the fact that Christmas falls on Tuesday, which means mid-week (Tuesday-Thursday) grosses will be much, much higher than normal.

There are three high profile releases opening tomorrow: the eagerly awaited Les Miserables, the eagerly awaited Quentin Tarantino film Django Unchained, and the Billy Crystal/Bette Midler comedy Parental Guidance.

Added to that: the third weekend of The Hobbit and the second weekends of 4 pictures, including Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher and the Judd Apatow comedy This Is 40.

So how does it all shake out? Boy, it’s tough to say. My sense is that The Hobbit will have a much smaller decline this week and weekend that its second weekend, where it fell 57%. Traditionally, the Christmas holiday means recent films don’t decline at the level they normally would (even though I was far too generous with nearly all films this past weekend). These smaller declines could certainly benefit Reacher and This Is 40 as well, even though audiences only gave 40 a “B-” CinemaScore grade, which doesn’t bode well (Reacher got a solid “A-“).

It is certainly possible that both Les Miserables and Django will fight it out with Hobbit for the top spot. Any combination of those three films in the 1-2-3 spots wouldn’t shock me. Word is that Miserables and Django are tracking well and both have received positive reviews. I suspect Parental Guidance will only do OK.

With that, I will bravely predict next weekend’s box office grosses for the Top 6 and take a stab at the six day grosses for all. Again, a caveat: this is TOUGH:

1. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million (6 day gross: $47.1M)

2. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million (6 day gross: $44.6M)

3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $26.5 million (6 day gross: $43.8M)

*representing a drop of 28%

4. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (6 day gross: $20.8M)

*representing a drop of 26%

5. Parental Guidance

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (6 day gross: $17.7M)

6. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $8 million (6 day gross: $14.6 million)

*representing a drop of 34%

So, there you have it: my Xmas predictions. We’ll see what happens and on Sunday, I’ll have the complete update (I’ll post how it’s looking on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week).

And a final note: I want to sincerely thank all of you who take the time to read this blog. I love writing it and I hope you enjoy reading it. I’ll be blogging again starting Wednesday for sure, but until then – have a Merry Christmas and if you venture out to see a Hobbit, Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway, Jamie Foxx and Leo DiCaprio, or Tom Cruise – safe travels!

Well, it is the Christmas season and I was clearly being way too generous with my weekend’s box office predictions. All titles that I predicted came in lower than my estimations and many were considerably lower.

As expected, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey retained the #1 spot, but dropped off quite a bit more than my prediction in its second weekend. The Tolkien tale took in $36.7 million, dropping 56%. I predicted $49.1 million. Oops.

As predicted, Tom Cruise’s action thriller Jack Reacher took the runner-up spot, earning $15.6 million, lower than my $17.6 million projection.

As predicted, the Judd Apatow comedy This Is 40 took third, grossing $12 million, lower than my $15.7 million projection.

Where I really went wrong: grossly overestimating the openings of Disney’s 3D Monsters Inc. re-release and the Seth Rogen/Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip. I predicted they would fill the four and five slots, but the two pictures were sixth and seventh. The Guilt Trip grossed $5.3 million over the weekend and $7.4M since its Wednesday opening (way below my $8.9M/$11.6M projection). Even worse, I predicted $12.3M for Monsters with a five-day gross of $16.2M. Not even close – the re-release sputtered with a $5 million weekend opening and $6.5M over the five-day.

This left holdovers Rise of the Guardians to be fourth ($5.9M) and Lincoln at fifth ($5.6M).

It will be fascinating to see how these pictures hold up this week and into the weekend. Christmas Day, in particular, is usually a huge box office day and many of these titles could hold up quite well. Then there’s the fact that Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance join the fray on Tuesday. I’ll be trying to make sense of it all for my next predictions post for the Christmas week and next weekend, which I’ll hopefully have up by tomorrow evening, so you can leave my predictions with Santa along with the milk and cookies.

We’re doing the box office predictions a day earlier than normal in Todd Thatcher blog land, because two of the four new films opening during this frame open tomorrow.

Both the Seth Rogen-Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip and Disney’s 3D re-release of Monsters Inc. open tomorrow to try and get a jump on the pre-Holiday box office frame.

On Friday, the Judd Apatow “sort of” Knocked Up sequel This Is 40 and the Tom Cruise action thriller Jack Reacher join the fray. Even with four new high-profile titles joining the fray, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is widely expected to retain its place at #1 for its second weekend. The real question is: how far will it drop? The film made over $84 million this past weekend and normally, a 50% drop would not be out of the ordinary. However, due to the holiday time frame, it may not quite drop that far.

It’s indeed that holiday time frame that makes it difficult to predict the openings of the new movies. The four opening this weekend will very likely occupy slots 2-5. The order will be interesting to see. High-profile December openings usually achieve a “slow burn”, where its actual opening doesn’t seem too big, but it’ll continue to experience smaller than normal dropoffs in following weekends. That is likely to be the case again this year and I would expect none of the new entries to gross over $20 million over the weekend.

Tom Cruise will have a real test of his box office strength with Reacher. His star has waned a bit in the last few years. For instance, 2010’s Knight and Day was a disappointment financially and this summer’s Rock of Ages didn’t perform well. He did have a massive hit a year ago with the fourth Mission: Impossible. His new film doesn’t have the built-in audience as his Ethan Hunt franchise. Reviews have been solid, but the trailers for Reacher don’t seem to set it apart too much from the crowd, in my opinion.

This is 40 is director Judd Apatow’s first film in three and a half years and reunites Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann, reprising their roles from 2007’s smash Knocked Up. Apatow’s last film, 2009’s Funny People, was a box office dud. I expect This is 40 to be neither a smash or a dud and fall somewhere in the middle. Its reviews have also been pretty positive.

I expect Disney’s 3D version of 2001’s Monsters Inc. to perform with roughly the same opening that their 3D Finding Nemo did in September, when it grossed $16 million.

Finally, The Guilt Trip doesn’t look very good, frankly, and its reviews have mostly reflected that. I don’t think it will perform as well as This Is 40, unless Rogen and Streisand’s fans really get out there. Not so sure.

And with all that said, here is this weekend’s box office predictions:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $49.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

2. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

4. Monsters Inc.

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (predicting $16.2 for 4 day gross)

5. The Guilt Trip

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (predicting $11.6 for 4 day gross)

I’ll be back Sunday with results and even more predictions on either Monday or Tuesday, because even more movies open on Christmas, including Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance. Stay tuned. Tis the season for LOTS of movies coming out at the same time!

It was the weekend for one debut and one debut only at the box office this weekend, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit. There was little doubt it would set the all-time December opening weekend, which had been held by 2007’s I Am Legend.

The Hobbit broke that record, earning $84.8 million this weekend and earning a great “A” CinemaScore grade from audiences. Sooooo… what was my prediction? $84.8 million. I can’t believe it either, quite frankly. If you don’t believe me, here’s the link from Thursday:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2012/12/13/box-office-predictions-dec-14-16-the-hobbit-arrives/

The film will likely hold that December record one exactly one year, when the second Hobbit installment opens next Christmas season. All I know is you can bet money on opening weekends and I’m kicking myself for not doing so.

As for the other films, Rise of the Guardians was second with $7.4 million, slightly above my $6.9 projection. Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln held up better than expected, partly due to its big number of Golden Globe nominations. It earned $7.2 million, well past my $5.8M projection for third. Skyfall dropped to fourth with $7 million, higher than my $6.2M prediction. Life of Pi was fifth with $5.4 million, just below my $5.5M projection and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 earned $5.2 million for sixth, slightly above my $4.9M projection.

Check back Thursday for next weekend’s projections, where a host of new titles will try to compete with Hobbit‘s second frame, including the Tom Cruise action thriller Jack Reacher, Judd Apatow’s comedy This is 40, the Seth Rogen/Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip, and Disney’s 3D re-release of Monsters Inc.