Dreamworks animated The Croods opened right on path with my prediction, topping the box office with an estimated $43.6 million, on pace with my $44.3M estimate. Gold star for Todd! The picture has a bright road ahead as it averaged an impressive “A” Cinemascore grade and has the benefit of kids being out of school with the Easter holiday approaching.
The White House action thriller Olympus Has Fallen also delivered a rock solid opening, earning an estimated $30.3 million, slightly above my $27.8M projection. Olympus brings great news for star Gerard Butler, who’s starred in a series of flops since his big breakout in 2007 with 300. It will be interesting to see how White House Down, a similarly plotted action flick with Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx, fares in June when it debuts. With an “A-” Cinemascore grade, Olympus seems to have audiences on its side.
In its third weekend, Oz The Great and Powerful fell to #3, grossing $21.5 million – just above my $20.7M projection. The film has amassed a giant $178 million since its opening. In its sophomore frame, Halle Berry’s The Call was fourth with $8.9 million, just below my $10M estimate.
Landing with a thud in the five spot is Admission with Tina Fey and Paul Rudd. As I mentioned in my predictions post, the marketing for this one seemed soft and a lackluster debut seemed likely. Admission managed a weak $6.1 million, below my $7.6M projection. With a discouraging “B-” Cinemascore grade, it will fade fest and be available for your On Demand viewing quickly.
Finally, I overestimated Spring Breakers, the indie comedy with James Franco, Selena Gomez, and Vanessa Hudgens. The film has an impressive limited opening last weekend. This translated to a pretty good wide release, grossing $4.8 million on only approximately 1,000 screens. It did not reach the lofty $6.8M that I projected.
Be sure to check back this week for predictions for the Easter Holiday frame when G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Host, and Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor all enter the competition. Stay tuned, my friends!
Three new high-profile titles plus a film that surprised box office analysts in limited release last weekend all go wide in a busy weekend.
The two-week reign of Oz The Great and Powerful is likely to come to a close as Dreamworks animated The Croods opens. The film, featuring the voices of Nicolas Cage and Emma Stone, has had an aggressive marketing campaign. It’s not Disney and shouldn’t do Disney level numbers, but animation sells. The Croods could make anywhere between $30 million (which would be highly disappointing) to $55 million (unlikely and anything over that number would be fantastic news for Dreamworks). A gross in the middle of that range is what I foresee.
Speaking of aggressive marketing campaigns, I admit to being quite impressed by Film District’s selling of Olympus Has Fallen, an action thriller with Gerard Butler, Aaron Eckhart, Morgan Freeman, and Senator Ashley Judd. Olympus is the first of two action flicks this year about the White House being taken over by bad guys. This one is likely to make less than the other one, White House Down (opening summer) with Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx. Still, reviews for Olympus have been surprisingly positive and the trailers are solid. I look for the pic to make over $20 million for the weekend and could perhaps even get close to $30 million.
Last weekend, Steve Carell’s comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone bombed with an anemic $10.3 million opening. This weekend, his Date Night co-star Tina Fey and Anchorman co-star Paul Rudd may experience a similar result. Their comedy Admission really seems to be flying under the radar screen and critics haven’t been too kind. Even with the talent involved (like Wonderstone), I am predicting the makers of Admission will be displeased with the amount of moviegoers paying admission to see it.
Rounding out the newcomers opening wide is Spring Breakers, a comic thriller with James Franco, Selena Gomez, and Vanessa Hudgens. The indie film debuted to impressive results when it opened in limited release in New York and L.A. last weekend. It opens on a relatively small 1000 screens approximately now. For comparison’s sake, Croods opens on nearly 4,000 and Olympus on around 3,000. Still, Breakers could have a nice little opening on its limited number of screens and give Oz star Franco another hit for 2013.
As for Oz itself, the picture enters its third weekend with some real competition for the younger crowd. It dipped 48% in its second weekend (a decent hold) and I expect just a slightly bigger dip this frame.
Finally, the Halle Berry thriller The Call totally exceeded expectations in its opening last weekend, grossing an impressive $17.1 million. Audiences seem to like it and I expect a good hold for it as well.
With that, my predictions for a big weekend at the box office:
1. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $44.3 million
2. Olympus Has Fallen
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
3. Oz The Great and Powerful
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million (representing a drop of 50%)
4. The Call
Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 42%)
5. Admission
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
6. Spring Breakers
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Be sure to check back through the weekend for updates and on Sunday for final results!
There was little doubt that Sam Raimi’s Oz The Great and Powerful would repeat at #1 in its second weekend at the box office, which is precisely what it did. The biggest film of 2013 grossed a rock solid $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, right on target with my $42 million projection.
However, it was the weekend’s two new releases that provided the surprises. Halle Berry’s thriller The Call outperformed all expectations, managing to make an impressive $17.1 million, well beyond my $9.2M estimate. Even though reviews were mostly negative, the film’s marketing campaign did its job. This is great news for Berry, whose box office track record has been unimpressive lately.
On the other side of the fence, the comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone landed with a thud. The Steve Carell/Jim Carrey picture received mixed reviews and its trailers weren’t particularly funny, but I still figured it would manage a $16.3 million opening (by the way, my estimate was lower than many others). Wrong, wrong, wrong. Wonderstone is a legitimate bomb as it made only $10.2 million.
Rounding out the top five, Jack the Giant Slayer was fourth with $6.3 million (holding up better than my $4.3M estimate) and Identity Thief was fifth with $4.4 million (just above my $4M projection).
Oz gets some real challengers for the throne next weekend when the animated The Croods, the thriller Olympus Has Fallen, and the Tina Fey comedy Admission all debut. My predictions for next weekend will be up Wednesday. Stay tuned!
Steve Carell, Jim Carrey, and Halle Berry enter the box office fray this weekend and try to muster up some competition for the second weekend of the biggest movie of the year so far, Oz The Great and Powerful as it enters weekend #2.
Neither title is likely to provide much of a threat for Oz to stay strong at the number spot. A better question is how far Oz falls in its sophomore frame. The Sam Raimi directed fantasy prequel opened to an impressive $79.1 million last weekend. A 50% drop or more is certainly possible, but with fairly weak competitors, I am projecting it won’t drop quite that far.
Steve Carell, Steve Buscemi, and Jim Carrey headline the new comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone. There is certainly a lot of talent involved here, but I must admit the trailers have underwhelmed me a bit. Wonderstone just doesn’t seem strong enough to be a comedy the masses will rush out and see, even with the principals involved. Reviews have been mixed and shouldn’t contribute to any positive buzz. I would say anything over $20 million for it would be solid and that’s not out of the question, but I’m not sold and will predict it doesn’t reach that mark.
The weekend’s other new entry is the thriller The Call starring Halle Berry and Abigail Breslin. Ms. Berry’s box office record has been spotty, at best, over the last several years and I don’t expect this to change her fortunes. Frankly, the trailers for this make it look like a direct-to-DVD or Lifetime movie if it wasn’t for the star’s involvement. Having said that, The Call is the type of film that could surprise… or completely bomb. I put the range on this opening from $5 to $15 million (though the latter seems highly unlikely). A gross somewhere in the middle seems more possible. Still, if you’ve been clamoring for a flick featuring Storm from X-Men saving Little Miss Sunshine from a child abduction, this is your movie.
Rounding out the Top Five, last weekend’s number two and three should slide to fourth and fifth. Jack the Giant Slayer has been a giant disappointment and will likely see a big slide in its third frame. Identity Thief should get the five spot in its sixth weekend. There is a distinct chance Thief could leap Slayer, switching up those spots.
Here are my predictions for the weekend box office:
1. Oz The Great and Powerful
Predicted Gross: $42 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. The Call
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
4. Jack the Giant Slayer
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)
5. Identity Thief
Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Results as they come in throughout the weekend will be posted on Saturday and Sunday.
The most eagerly awaited title of 2013 so far, Oz The Great and Powerful, managed to deliver the 39th biggest opening of all time this weekend, even while falling a bit below my projection.
The Sam Raimi directed Wizard of Oz prequel grossed $79.1 million, under my $87.4M estimate. Still, the opening is solid. A sequel has already been greenlighted. It will be interesting to see how the picture holds up in its second weekend. Stay tuned for my post this week projecting Oz‘s grosses then.
The first big bomb of 2013, Jack the Giant Slayer, had a disappointing second weekend as well, dipping a hefty 63% for a gross of $9.8 million, below my $12.7M estimate. Identity Thief placed third in its fifth weekend with $6.3 million, which I predicted exactly on the nose.
The weekend’s other new release, Colin Farrell’s Dead Man Down, did not fare well. It grossed a meager $5.3 million, slightly below my $5.9M projection.
Finally, the comedy 21&Over tied with Snitch for fifth, grossing $5.1 million, a bit above my $4.3M estimate.
Stay tuned for estimates for next weekend, when the comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone and the Halle Berry thriller The Call attempt to compete with Oz‘s second weekend.
As readers of my blog know, I went into detailed explanation on Monday predicting the opening weekend box office gross for Oz The Great and Powerful, 2013’s most high-profile release opening Friday. For those who have yet to see it, here’s the link covering that subject:
While Oz will undoubtedly rule the weekend, there is one more wide release out: the Colin Farrell action/thriller Dead Man Down. I expect this release will not perform well. The ad campaign has been pretty lacking and it appears destined to join other generically titled action flicks that have all bombed this year. Think The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, and Parker. Farrell is certainly not a box office draw. Even his much higher profile Total Recall remake did lackluster numbers last summer.
On the holdovers front, Jack the Giant Slayer was a big financial disappointment in its debut last weekend, grossing a meager $27 million (peanuts compared to its nearly $200 million dollar price tag). With direct competition from Oz, it’s likely to drop over 50 percent and further its reputation as the first significant bomb of 2013. The comedy 21&Over also debuted with bad results last weekend, grossing under $9 million. Its slide may not be quite as hefty as Slayer‘s, but it may not be much better. Finally, Identity Thief is likely to have the smallest decline as it enters its fifth weekend.
And with that, we’re off the see my Top Five predictions for the weekend where Oz is all anyone is talking about:
1. Oz The Great and Powerful
Predicted Gross: $87.4 million
2. Jack the Giant Slayer
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. Identity Thief
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Dead Man Down
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. 21&Over
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Check back over the weekend as the results for Oz start rolling in and on Sunday when final numbers are released!
I normally wait until Wednesday to make my box office predictions for the upcoming weekend. While I have no intention of changing that practice, I will from time to time make an early prediction under special circumstances.
This coming weekend provides such a circumstance. In short, when an especially eagerly awaited release is set to debut, my projection will come a little earlier. I’m doing this for one main reason: I don’t want to be influenced by the inevitable flurry of articles likely to appear during the week pontificating on how Oz the Great and Powerful will perform this weekend. I choose to pontificate first (especially due to the extreme lack of pontificating going on generally around the world at the moment).
I would expect to see similar early posts over the coming months on titles such as Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, and The Lone Ranger, among others.
However, we begin with what is unquestionably the biggest release of 2013 so far: Sam Raimi’s Oz the Great and Powerful. The prequel to one of the most beloved movies of all time stars James Franco, Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and Mila Kunis.
Disney has gone all out marketing the film and raising its profile over the last several months, complete with a Super Bowl spot and constantly running ads on TV. The total budget, including the hefty marketing campaign, reportedly tops out at $325 million dollars. With that kind of money behind it, anything less than a smash hit will be considered a major letdown.
With its second weekend of March release date, it’s no secret Disney is attempting to replicate the success of another one of their titles released the same weekend three years ago: Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, starring Johnny Depp. Watching the Oz trailers, it’s certainly marketed with the same vibe as the aforementioned mega-blockbuster. Wonderland currently stands as having the 14th biggest opening ever with $116.1 million. Disney would be over the moon to see those kinds of numbers for Oz.
I’m not so sure. First off, if Oz grosses over $100 million this weekend, mission accomplished for Disney. While the two titles are alike in many ways, Wonderland had the added benefit of having one of the biggest movie stars on the planet with their name above the title. There was probably a fair amount of moviegoers who went to see it simply because Depp was in it. Oz does not have that luxury. It’s filled with well-known actors, but none of them are box office draws. It’s worth noting that Robert Downey Jr. considered headlining the film at one point, but declined. His participation would have likely increased my estimate for Oz considerably, to the tune of an additional $15-$20 million dollars.
Sam Raimi’s film does have the name recognition thing going for it, though. It’s hard to find anyone who hasn’t seen (and loved) 1939’s The Wizard of Oz, a movie that picks up fans with every passing generation. It is certainly the main selling point here.
So far, reviews are mixed. That’s good enough. In many ways, Oz is critic-proof and its performance could only be hurt if it was savaged by critics. That does not appear to be the case whatsoever.
A more fair comparison for what Oz accomplishes this weekend may just be a film from the very recent past, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. That, too, had a built-in audience eager to see it. It also received mixed reviews. And frankly, its box office performance in its inaugural weekend seems more likely to resemble what Oz will do. The Hobbit earned an $84.6 million opening in December.
Director Sam Raimi is certainly no stranger to blockbuster releases. He directed the Tobey Maguire Spiderman trilogy. The first film in that series debuted in 2002 to the best opening of all time (it now stands at #15, right behind Alice in Wonderland).
The flexibility as to what Oz grosses is pretty wide. Anything below $75 million will be seen as low, no matter how Disney spins it. Anything above $100 million would be a bit surprising and certainly amazing news for the Mouse Factory. My estimate puts it slightly above Hobbit territory:
Final Prediction
Oz the Great and Powerful: $87.4 million opening weekend
That prediction would give Oz the 33rd largest opening ever, in between Spiderman 2 and Fast Five. That number would likely be seen as a very solid opening, but how it holds up in subsequent weekends remains to be seen. If I had to further estimate, I’d say its chances of making more than my prediction is greater than its chances of making less, even though something in the low to middle 80s is quite possible. I don’t see it going below $75 million, but we’ll see.
On Wednesday, I will be back with my full predictions for the weekend’s Top Five. Special openings call for special blog posts and I wanted to get the Oz projection out now. Stay tuned!
Jack the Giant Slayer had a clear #1 opening at the box office this weekend and managed to exceed my predicted gross. However, the news is still not good for Warner Bros.
As mentioned in my predictions post on Wednesday, anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be considered a massive disappointment for Bryan Singer’s $190 million budgeted Jack and the Beanstalk tale. The picture grossed $27.2 million, slightly higher than my $25.4M projection. Long term domestic prospects don’t look great, as Sam Rami’s high-profile Oz the Great and Powerful is expected to open huge next weekend (more on that this Wednesday).
Meanwhile, Identity Thief continues post higher grosses than I’m predicting. Thief slid only one spot to #2, earning $9.7 million in its fourth weekend, above my $8.2M estimate. The Melissa McCarthy comedy looks to end its domestic run with an impressive gross of around $130 million.
The raunchy comedy 21&Over failed to connect with its target audience of teens and 20-somethings, grossing a low $8.8 million, less than half of my $18M projection. On the same weekend last year, Project X (a similar film going for the same crowd) earned a very good $20M opening, but 21&Over didn’t come close to repeating that business, despite a rather robust marketing campaign.
Continuing the trend of films under performing, horror sequel The Last Exorcism Part II opened fifth with a small $7.7 million, below my $10.6M estimate. Like other horror titles, expect this one to fall quickly next weekend.
In the four spot, Snitch made $7.8 million in its second weekend, right around my $7.3M projection. Well out of the Top Ten, the submarine thriller Phantom wound up with a pathetic opening of $470,000 – representing one of the worst wide openings in box office history. I was clearly being way too generous when I guessed it’d made $2.3 million.
Be sure to check back this Wednesday for next weekend’s predictions, when Oz the Great and Powerful hits multiplexes. The Sam Raimi film is by far expected to post the largest opening of the year so far. The Colin Farrell action thriller Dead Man Down also opens. Stay tuned my friends!
A busy weekend at theaters as four new pictures try to shake up a rather sluggish box office in which only Melissa McCarthy’s Identity Thief has broken out with moviegoers.
Bryan Singer’s Jack the Giant Slayer, a “reimagining” of the Jack and the Beanstalk fairy tale, was pushed back from its original June 2012 release date. The reason given was more time needed to work on visual effects. Singer has directed the well-received first two X-Men features, as well as the not-so well-received Superman Returns from 2006. With a huge $190 million dollar budget, Warner Bros. is taking quite a gamble here. It’s one that may not pay off. The picture’s trailers don’t seem to convey this as a “must-see” event and plenty of moviegoers may just wait until next weekend to see what appears to be 2013’s first real tentpole release, Oz the Great and Powerful. Anything below a $30 million opening would have to be considered disappointing and I suspect Slayer is headed in that direction.
Touting itself as from the writers of The Hangover is the R rated teen comedy 21 and Over. Shot on a puny $13 million budget, 21 and Over seems to have run a fairly effective marketing campaign and audiences might be ready for a raunchy comedy. On this very same weekend last year, a similar title (Project X) managed to exceed expectations and deliver a $21 million opening. There is even a small possibility 21 and Over could open #1 if Slayer falls far below expectations. An opening in the high teens for 21 seems likely, but it could tick up even higher.
Our next offering is The Last Exorcism Part II, the sequel to the successful 2010 original. This is another title looking to exceed expectations. I’m not so sure with this one, just like Slayer. While the original managed a truly impressive $20 million opening, it dropped fast. Audiences didn’t seem to particularly care for it, so the thought that they would be clamoring for a sequel seems unlikely. The second Exorcism may be lucky to open at half of its predecessor’s gross. However, like most horror titles, it could surprise and deliver a much bigger opening than anticipated.
Last, and most certainly least, is Phantom. This submarine thriller, set in the 1960s, stars Ed Harris and David Duchovny. Inexplicably, it’s opening on a hefty 2,000 screens. This kind of movie has “made for TV” or “direct to DVD” written all over it. I have no idea how this got a major theatrical release. Expect it to post embarrassing numbers.
The three newbies talked about first should open 1-3. This leaves last weekend’s two top grossers, Identity Thief and Snitch, likely to round out the top five.
And with that, here are my box office predictions for the weekend:
1. Jack the Giant Slayer
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. 21 and Over
Predicted Gross: $18 million
3. The Last Exorcism Part II
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
4. Identity Thief
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)
5. Snitch
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)
Finally, I look for Phantom to open with a tiny $2.3 million.
Check back through the weekend as final numbers come in!
It was, as expected, a quiet week at the box office as Identity Thief returned to the #1 spot as two newcomers posted mediocre results.
Thief was back on top with a gross of $14 million, slightly below my $14.9M projection. The Rock’s action drama Snitch opened second with a soft $13.2 million, inches below my $13.3M estimate. At third, the animated Escape from Planet Earth with $10.7 million (I said $11.1M). A Good Day to Die Hard fell from 1st to 4th, dropping farther than I thought it would. The fifth installment in the franchise grossed $10.2 million in its second weekend, well below my $14.1M projection. Finally, the horror thriller Dark Skies was a big disappointment in sixth with $8.2 million, less than my $10.6M estimate.
Be sure to check back Wednesday for next weekend’s prediction, when Jack the Giant Slayer, The Last Exorcism Part II, 21 and Over, and Phantom all debut.
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