Box Office Predictions: February 1-3

Well, it’s Super Bowl weekend and conventional wisdom tells us it’ll probably be a pretty slow weekend at the box office. A lot of American moviegoers may be more focused on the Ravens and 49ers than the slate of films being offered up.

You never know, though. 2012’s Super Bowl weekend had two movies post very solid openings: the sci-fi flick Chronicle ($22 million opening) and the Daniel Radcliffe supernatural thriller The Woman in Black ($20.9 million opening).

The top spot this weekend is likely to be occupied by Warm Bodies, described as a “paranormal romantic zombie comedy”. It features no box office draws (though John Malkvoich and the hilarious Rob Cordry are in it), but it’s been heavily marketed by Summit Entertainment, the studio behind the juggernaut Twilight franchise. I expect it could post a nice weekend debut. It doesn’t hurt that the picture is also getting pretty darn good reviews.

This weekend’s other wide release is Bullet to the Head, an action flick starring Sylvester Stallone. It’s getting mixed reviews, not as positive as the critics reaction to Sly’s buddy Arnold Schwarzengger’s The Last Stand two weeks ago. And that movie bombed… bad. Stallone has been more successful in recent years with Expendables movies, but I’m not convinced Bullet will break out of the pack and do the kind of numbers those films put up. It just doesn’t look like anything special and with similar action titles like The Last Stand and Parker faltering, I would expect the same fate here.

Opening on only approximately 450 screens, Stand Up Guys features an impressive cast with Al Pacino, Christopher Walken, and Alan Arkin. Yet again, with its small release, I don’t see it doing much and the studio seems to have little faith in it.

As far as holdovers, I’d be surprised if last week’s champ, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, doesn’t fall 50% or more in its sophomore frame. The same holds true was last week’s #2, the horror flick Mama, entering its third weekend. Oscar darling Silver Linings Playbook is likely to experience a smaller drop. I would say the same for Zero Dark Thirty. 

And with that, my box office predictions for the weekend:

1. Warm Bodies

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million

2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. Bullet to the Head

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Mama

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

Finally, opening on that small number of screens, I’ll say Stand Up Guys grosses $1.2 million for a not-so stand-up opening.

That’s all, my friends. Check back over the weekend for updates and on Sunday for final numbers!


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