Movies like Baggage Claim are the type that drive box office prognosticators like me crazy. It’s marketed primarily toward an African-American female audience and those pictures tend to debut higher than expected. It stars Mrs. Robin Thicke (and Alan Thicke’s daughter-in-law) Paula Patton, Djimon Hounsou, and Taye Diggs and the romantic comedy aims to bring in the kind of numbers that Jumping the Broom did two years ago. That film also starred Patton and greatly exceeded expectations with a $15 million opening. Could lightning strike twice?

It wouldn’t surprise me at all, but Baggage Claim is the kind of flick that could make $5 million in its opening or $15 million. It could open on par with Jumping the Broom or just as easily suffer the fate that Tyler Perry Presents Peeples did this summer. That pic was marketed toward the same audience and bombed with a $4.6 million debut. I’ll be honest here. I think Claim is probably going to open on the lower end of the possibility scale, but I’m hedging my bets by going in the middle.

Baggage Claim opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million

For my Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

For Rush, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

For Don Jon, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

Joseph Gordon-Levitt makes his directorial debut and stars in Don Jon, an R rated romantic comedy that seems to be generating mostly positive reviews so far. The actor has certainly seen his share of box office hits in the last few years with Inception, The Dark Knight Rises, and Looper. He couldn’t help Premium Rush turn into a hit last year, on the other hand.

Don Jon costars Scarlett Johannson and Julianne Moore, not to mention Tony Danza (!) as Gordon-Levitt’s father. With a mere $5 million budget, Jon shouldn’t have any trouble making its money back but competition should hurt this from breaking out of the pack. Young adult audiences should still be seeing Prisoners in its second weekend and Rush in its debut frame. I don’t see this reaching double digits, unless females turn out at a higher than expected rate. I’m skeptical – Don Jon appears to be no Magic Mike.

Don Jon opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my prediction on Rush, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

For my Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 forecast, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

For Baggage Claim, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

Can a 1970s era true-life sports flick about Formula One racing break out of the pack and become a box office hit? Indicators are beginning to point towards yes but whether Rush has a big opening is very much an open question.

Ron Howard’s pic starring Chris Hemsworth and Daniel Bruhl screened at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to mostly rave reviews. Critics say this one is an audience pleaser, but you have to wonder what kind of opening the solid buzz will translate to. Rush seems more destined to have a decent debut followed by relatively small dropoffs in subsequent weekends. For comparisons sake, Moneyball opened two years ago to similar buzz with a $19.5 million start. However, that title featured Brad Pitt and was about baseball. Yes, Rush has Thor himself with Hemsworth, but he’s no Pitt and certainly Formula One racing does not have the broad appeal that baseball does.

Still, the film has been well-publicized and I am predicting that Rush falls just a couple million under the opening of the aforementioned picture.

Rush opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my prediction on the opening for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Don Jon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

For my Baggage Claim prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

Opening four years after its predecessor, the question really isn’t whether Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opens at #1 (it will). The real question is can the sequel have the best September debut of all time? It can.

On this same final September weekend last year, Adam Sandler’s animated Hotel Transylvania set the September record with a $42 million debut. The original Cloudy opened just north of $30 million in 2009, but displayed remarkable legs and ended up with a $124 million domestic gross. The sequel, featuring the voices of Bill Hader, Anna Faris, James Caan, Andy Samberg, and Neil Patrick Harris, should have no problem eclipsing the opening weekend of the original. And it seems poised to inch higher than the record-setting Transylvania opening just a year ago.

Don’t get me wrong. We’re not talking Despicable Me 2 here, but a Cloudy forecast of a mid to high 40s opening seems like the most probable scenario.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opening weekend prediction: $48.1 million

For my prediction on the opening for Rush, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

For my Don Jon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

For my Baggage Claim prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

The Hugh Jackman child abduction drama/thriller Prisoners easily took the top spot at the box office this weekend with a solid opening of $21.4 million, surpassing my $18.4M projection. With an A- Cinemascore average, Prisoners will likely hold up pretty well in future weekends even though there’s plenty of product coming in the next couple of weeks (Rush, Gravity) competing for many of the same moviegoers.

Insidious: Chapter 2 slid to second and dropped a bit further than my estimate earning $14.5 million (I predicted $15.9M). The Robert De Niro comedy The Family was third in its sophomore frame with $7 million, just above my $6.4M prediction. The Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included actually outdid its gross last weekend with $5.7 million for fourth. I wrongly did not include it in the top five.

Finally, I incorrectly gave the urban dance pic Battle of the Year with Chris Brown far too much credit. I predicted it would open with $10.3 million for a third place showing. Oops. Battle managed a meager $5 million for the #5 spot.

Later today, I’ll have my individual prediction posts up for the four new titles coming out next week: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Rush, Don Jon, and Baggage Claim.

The critically acclaimed child abduction drama Prisoners with Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall and the Chris Brown urban dance flick Battle of the Year both open this weekend. One of them could be an awards contender. I’ll leave you hanging as to which one.

You can find my prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/prisoners-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/battle-of-the-year-box-office-prediction/

Prisoners may find itself in a tight race with this weekend’s champ Insidious: Chapter 2 for the top spot. I’m predicting the Insidious sequel will have a large drop in its sophomore frame, which is normal for horror flicks. This should allow Prisoners to win the weekend. Of course, that’s barring a bigger than expected opening for Battle of the Year. Don’t reject the idea out of hand. Urban dance pics have a history of impressive debuts, but this one seems to be flying under the radar. Last weekend’s #2 The Family with Robert De Niro had a decent opening but should fall hard in its second weekend. The Butler and We’re the Millers should compete for the five spot with nearly identical grosses.

And with that, my best guess for this coming weekend’s top five:

1. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $18.4 milion

2. Insidious: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 60%)

3. Battle of the Year

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. The Family

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

That’s all for now, folks! Updates will be posted on the Facebook page Saturday as grosses start to roll in with a final report Sunday on the blog.

Before you go automatically assuming Battle of the Year, this Friday’s breakdancing flick, will be a huge bomb, consider these facts. The following dance pics over the past few years that marketed toward a hip hop audience all opened between $15-$23 million: Save the Last Dance, Step Up, Step Up 2 the Streets, Step Up 3-D, Stomp the Yard, and You Got Served.

Not too shabby at all. Battle of the Year stars America’s sweetheart Chris Brown and Sawyer from “Lost” Josh Holloway. Oh Sawyer… call your agent. While there is certainly precedent for these types of pictures having robust openings, Battle of the Year could struggle. Last year’s Step Up Revolution had the weakest debut in that franchise with only $11 million, suggesting the genre could be fading.

My fellow estimators over at Box Office Ace have this averaged at only about a $7.5M opening. I’ll cut it a little more slack than that. Chris Brown does have his fans after all and a debut that low would easily mark the lowest in the genre in recent history. I’ll say it debuts right in line with the last Step Up flick and other similar titles like Honey and the Fame remake from 2009.

Battle of the Year opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my prediction on the opening of Prisoners, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/prisoners-box-office-prediction/

It has already received considerable critical acclaim with reviewers saying it features career-best performances from its two stars and on Friday, we’ll see if the solid word of mouth brings Prisoners box office success.

The film stars Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall in a child abduction drama from Canadian filmmaker Denis Villeneuve. The supporting casts includes Paul Dano, Maria Bello, Melissa Leo, Viola Davis, and Terrence Howard. After screening at the Toronto Film Festival, critics hailed the work of Jackman and Gyllenhall and the picture itself. Prisoners may well benefit from being marketed toward adults after a summer of mostly teen and kid friendly fare. Even the first couple of weeks of the fall season have followed that pattern with Riddick and the Insidious sequel.

Will that translate to a huge opening? Probably not, but Prisoners could display impressive staying power if moviegoers encourage their peers to see it. I don’t believe it’ll reach the $20 million mark in its debut, though it certainly could. It could also see a rather disappointing opening the low teens, but I think high teens seems more probable.

Prisoners opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million

For my prediction on the opening of Battle of the Year, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/battle-of-the-year-box-office-prediction/

Horror flicks continue to confound this box office prognosticator as Insidious: Chapter 2 had a massive opening this weekend with the second highest September debut of all time. The sequel to the 2011 sleeper hit took in $41 million, only $13 million less than the original did in its entire domestic run! I foolishly predicted the sequel would only earn $22.6 million. Oops. You can be assured that chapter 3 is being planned as we speak.

The Robert De Niro Mob comedy The Family also debuted above my estimate with $14.5 million. This is a pretty decent opening and bested my $11.2 million projection. However, with a troubling C Cinemascore grade, it will likely fall hard next weekend.

In its second weekend, Riddick dropped to third with $7 million, a bit below my $7.9M estimate. Lee Daniels’ The Butler took fourth with $5.5 million (in line with my $5.6M estimate) and We’re the Millers took the five spot with $5.4 million.

I incorrectly put the Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included at fourth with $5.9 million. It fell harder in its third weekend that I figured with $4.2 million. Be sure to check the blog this evening for projections on next weekend’s two new entries, Prisoners and Battle of the Year.

 

Two new entries join the box office fray this weekend and they’re likely to open #1 and #2. They are horror sequel Insidious: Chapter 2 and the Robert De Niro Mob comedy The Family. You can find my predictions for both pictures here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/insidious-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/the-family-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m estimating Insidious opens with about twice as much business as The Family. As for holdovers, this weekend’s #1 Riddick had a pretty good debut with $19 million. However, it seems destined to suffer a large dropoff in its sophomore weekend. The surprise hit Spanish comedy Instructions Not Included and Lee Daniels’ The Butler should experience relatively small declines.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Insidious: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. The Family

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. Riddick

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Instructions Not Included

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 28%)

5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook blog page Saturday with final results on the blog itself Sunday!