This coming weekend, Tom Hanks as Captain Phillips and the star-studded sequel Machete Kills open and try to take down the box office juggernaut that is Gravity. You can find my individual posts on both new pics here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/

I seem to be going lower than most prognosticators so far on Captain Phillips. I’m sticking with my prediction and believe it will suffer small declines in future weekends. As for Machete Kills, I’m not expecting much.

Gravity should hold onto the #1 spot and have a fairly small decline. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 is likely to experience a drop in its third weekend in the low-30s. The Justin Timberlake/Ben Affleck bomb Runner Runner should hang around in the top five but suffer a sizable fall from its already weak opening weekend debut.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)

2. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Machete Kills

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Runner Runner

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)

I’ll have updates this weekend on the blog as the numbers roll in!

Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney has captured the attention of moviegoers and earned the title of best October opening of all time. The record was previously held by Paranormal Activity 3 with $52.5 million.

Defying even the high end of expectations, the pic grossed a terrific $55.6 million – well above my $38.7M prediction. With an A- Cinemascore grade, Gravity looks to have a healthy run in coming weeks and could stay #1 for at least one more weekend. The impressive opening is also a career-best for Bullock as her previous highest was this summer’s The Heat with $39.1 million. And it’s the best opening for Clooney, too – above the $42.8 million for (sadly) 1997’s Batman and Robin.

As expected, last weekend’s champ Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 fell to second place with $21.5 million – right on target with my $21.8M projection.

The noise made by Gravity unquestionably affected other films marketed towards adults… and in negative fashion. The weekend’s other newbie Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck failed to connect with a weak $7.6 million debut, below my $10.9M estimate. The pic ends the magical 2013 run of Timberlake, who’s been having a banner year on the music charts.

Rounding out the top five, Prisoners took fourth with $5.7 million (just below my $6.2M projection) while Ron Howard’s Rush fell further than I figured it would in its second weekend with only $4.4 million (I said $6.1M). While the Formula One racing pic was a hit with critics, audiences are clearly ambivalent.

At press time, numbers were not available for Metallica Through the Never, which I predicted would gross $2.8 million. I’ll update those numbers when I have them.

**Update: Metallica Through the Never managed only $682,000, well below my estimate. It seems the pic (marketed as an IMAX release) lost a lot of screens due to… you guessed it, Gravity.

Be sure to check the blog later today for individual predictions on next weekend’s openers, Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks and Robert Rodriguez’s sequel Machete Kills. 

Alfonso Cuaron’s critically acclaimed sci-fi flick Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney should easily open at the #1 spot this weekend. I’m not expecting a whole lot of out the weekend’s other newbies, Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck and the concert film Metallica Through the Never. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 came in well below my projection, grossing $34 million in its debut. A sophomore frame drop in the mid-30s seems likely while last weekend’s #2 and #3 Prisoners and Rush should fall in the high 30s-low 40s. With a debut on only approximately 650 screens, the Metallica pic should open well outside the top five.

And with that, my estimates for this coming weekend’s top five pics:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)

3. Runner Runner

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

4. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Rush

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

I’ll have a Saturday update on the blog’s Facebook page with final results Sunday!

It’s not just pop stars and boy bands that get concert films as Metallica Through the Never opens in wide-ish release this Friday. The pic features the legendary rockers performing while a subplot stars Chronicle actor Dane DeHaan as a roadie. It sounds like an interest concept for a movie and, so far, critical reaction has been very positive.

Still, it’s opening on a small 650 screens and this is certainly an example of a pic which will have a niche audience… namely, die-hard Metallica fans. I don’t see it getting much past the $3 million opening mark and I’ll say it doesn’t quite get there.

Metallica Through the Never opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my prediction on Gravity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Runner Runner, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

 

The “Suit&Tie” man and the future Batman team up for Runner Runner from Lincoln Lawyer director Brad Furman, opening Friday. Justin Timberlake is having about the best year you can imagine on the music charts and Ben Affleck saw his directorial effort Argo win Best Picture at the Oscars. He went on to receive loads of publicity (not all positive) when he was cast as Batman in the upcoming summer 2015 pic.

While this thriller set in the world of online poker certainly has famous faces populating it, I’m not sure that’ll translate to good box office. 20th Century Fox is certainly hoping the film’s gross “mirrors” JT’s music popularity, but the studio may want to “take back the night” they decided to open this against Gravity. That film will likely “TKO” Runner Runner at the multiplexes. The pic has received mostly negative reviews so far and I simply don’t see it gaining much traction.

Let’s get to the prediction before I figure out a way to incorporate “Seniorita” into a bad pun, shall we?

Runner Runner opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my prediction post on Gravity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

For my Metallica Through the Never prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

It’s got an incredible 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes so far. It features Oscar winners Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. It’s directed by visionary filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron. The guy who’s directed the two top grossing pictures of all time, James Cameron, says it’s brilliant. The film is already being mentioned as not only being nominated for Best Picture, but possibly winning it.

This Friday comes Gravity, the eagerly awaited lost in space pic that seems primed for a healthy debut and a nice run in subsequent weekends. How big could it open? Well, it’s got a few things in its favor. I would imagine a lot of moviegoers will choose to see it in 3D Imax where tickets prices will be higher. Gravity has a brief 90 minute run time which allows more showings per theater.

The figure $40 million has been thrown around for a debut and that is certainly possible. I’m predicting it’ll get mighty close to that figure, but not quite reach it. Still, Gravity should enjoy smallish declines weekend to weekend if the critical and awards buzz translates to audience members.

Gravity opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million

For my Runner Runner prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

For my Metallica Through the Never prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

As expected, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took the top spot at the box office this weekend, but it did not have the biggest September debut of all time as I incorrectly predicted. The animated sequel earned $35 million, good for the fourth highest opening of the month. This was well below my $48.1M projection.

Last weekend’s champ Prisoners fell a bit further than I anticipated grossing $11.2 million for second place (I predicted $12.7M). The rest of the top five was filled with newcomers as Ron Howard’s Rush got the bronze prize with a muted $10.3 million opening, well below my generous $17.2M projection. I did better with my estimates for the four and five spots as the Paula Patton romantic comedy Baggage Claim was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $9.5M) and Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s Don Jon was fifth with $9 million (just above my $8M projection).

Be sure to check the blog later today for my projection for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Gravity, Runner Runner, and Metallica Through the Never.

 

After a fairly toned down last three weekends in which only five new pictures premiered, the floodgates open this coming weekend with four new wide releases: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Ron Howard’s Formula One racing flick Rush, the Paula Patton romantic comedy Baggage Claim, and Don Jon, which marks Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s directorial debut.

You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

Unless any of the new entries fall below $6.5 million (which is about what Insidious: Chapter 2 may make in its third weekend), the four new pics should all populate the top five. I’m predicting that they will. That leaves Prisoners in its second weekend as the only predicted holdover and it should fall no more than 40% in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my prognosis for the weekend’s top five:

1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $48.1 million

2. Rush

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Baggage Claim

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Don Jon

Predicted Gross: $8 million

I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!