The Family may have a lot of talent behind it, but I’m pretty skeptical that it will do much business when it opens Friday. It’s got Robert De Niro once again spoofing his own image as a former Mob boss now in the witness protection program. This is the actor’s third time around with this type of role after the successful Analyze This and its much less successful sequel Analyze That. De Niro isn’t the only star repeating themselves in a Mob themed comedy. Michelle Pfeiffer, playing his wife, has done this before in 1988’s Married to the Mob. Tommy Lee Jones is involved as well, playing a CIA agent in charge of watching them.

Luc Besson is behind the camera and he’s certainly a well-regarded director with credits such as La Femme Nikita, The Professional, and The Fifth Element. Truth be told, this looks like a box office disappointment to me. Nothing about the trailers or TV spots is too interesting and this seems like the definition of a “wait for HBO” picture. It could surprise me, but I think The Family will struggle to find an audience. Older audiences may be ambivalent and younger moviegoers may be checking out the Insidious sequel instead.

The Family opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my prediction on Insidious: Chapter 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/insidious-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

In 2011, Insidious turned out to be quite a profitable picture to say the least. The horror flick starring Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne took in $54 million domestically and cost a mere $1.5 million to make. This Friday, we have the inevitable sequel.

James Wan returns to direct and in between the original and this follow-up, he directed this summer’s huge hit The Conjuring. It probably doesn’t hurt that TV spots say “from the director of The Conjuring.” Still, while the original was a hit – $54 million is not exactly an enormous gross. Horror flicks are notoriously tough to predict. In the past, I’ve tended to project under what they end up opening at. However, this was definitely not the case with You’re Next from a couple of weekends ago. I predicted it would earn $21 million in its debut weekend. It made $7 million. Oops.

Insidious: Chapter 2 has the advantage of being the sequel to a generally well-regarded film that is still pretty fresh in viewers minds. The possibility exists of a high 20s opening, but I’m thinking lower-mid 20s is more likely.

Insidious: Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my prediction on The Family, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/the-family-box-office-prediction/

As expected, Vin Diesel’s Riddick opened atop the box office this weekend. However, it debuted a bit lower than I figured. Diesel’s third go-round in this franchise made $18.7 million, below my $23.4M projection. Not a bad opening, but I along with many other prognosticators figured it would top $20M.

After three weeks at number one, Lee Daniels’ The Butler dropped to second with $8.9 million, just shy of my $9.5M estimate. The Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included continues to surprise and it earned $8.1 million for third place, well above my $5.6M projection. We’re the Millers was fourth with $7.9 million, right on par with my $7.8M estimate. Disney’s Planes was fifth with $4.3 million.

I incorrectly had One Direction: This Is Us at the five spot with $6.6 million. It slid much further in its second weekend with only $4.1 million for a sixth place showing. The post Labor Day weekend at the box office is usually a slow one and 2013 was certainly no different. Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have projections up for both of next weekend’s openers, Insidious: Chapter 2 and The Family.

The weekend after Labor Day marks the official start of the fall movie season and this is typically one of the most unexciting and lowest grossing weekends of the year. 2013 looks to be no different. There is only one new wide release, Riddick with Vin Diesel which marks the third entry in a franchise that began thirteen years ago. It’s been nearly a decade since the second film The Chronicles of Riddick. I made my prediction post for Riddick at the following link:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/riddick-box-office-prediction/

Riddick should easily win the weekend barring a shockingly low gross. As for the rest of the top ten, it’s all leftovers. I’m predicting the rest of the top five won’t even reach double digits. Of the holdovers, I would expect One Direction: This Is Us to have the largest drop. These types of concert pictures often have healthy debut weekends and significant falls in their second frame. Labor Day weekend’s surprise film was Instructions Not Included, which seemingly came out of nowhere grossing over $10 million over the holiday frame on only 347 screens. That marks the largest Spanish language pic opening ever domestically and it will likely have the smallest drop and remain in the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Riddick

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)

3. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. One Direction: This Is Us

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Instructions Not Included

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Be sure to check back on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend for updates and Sunday on the blog for results!

This Friday there is only one new wide release coming to theaters. That would be David Twohy’s Riddick starring Vin Diesel, the third pic in this franchise. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen this character. Diesel’s second most-known (after Fast and the Furious) film series debuted in 2000 with Pitch Black and continued in 2004 with The Chronicles of Riddick. That second picture was actually considered a box office disappointment nearly a decade ago when it opened at $24.2 million but went on to earn a mild $57 million domestically.

If Riddick made $24 million in its domestic run, that would be considered pretty darn good today. Expectations are lower this time around. First, the film is budgeted at a modest $38 million. Second, this franchise certainly doesn’t have the audience anticipation that Vin’s other franchise does. Riddick may benefit from a weak marketplace as summer holdovers start to fade away and the big fall titles have yet to be released. To me, this is an example of a picture that could easily over or under perform. Anything over $25 million would be more than expected. Anything below high teens would be a letdown. Ultimately, I think this opens just under what its predecessor made in the summer of 2004.

Riddick opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million

We have now reached the end of the 2013 Summer Movie Season and for the third weekend in a row, it was Lee Daniels’ The Butler atop the box office. The historical drama took in $20 million over the holiday frame which was right on target with my $19.8M prediction. Gold star for me!

The concert film One Direction: This Is Us surpassed my expectations for a #2 debut with $18 million (above my $14.9M estimate). The hit comedy We’re the Millers continues to do brisk business with $15.9 million for third place (in line with my $15.1M projection). Disney’s Planes saw a solid increase for fourth place with $10.7 million (above my $9M estimate).

The true surprise of the weekend was the performance of the Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included. The pic opened at #5 with an incredible $10 million. This is notable for a couple of reasons: it’s the biggest Spanish language debut domestically ever and the movie was only showing on a small 347 screens. Due to the latter reason, Instructions wasn’t even on my radar screen to predict.

The other surprise (at least to me) was just how badly the two other newbies performed. The Ethan Hawke/Selena Gomez action flick Getaway managed just $5.5 million over the holiday time frame. I predicted it would do over double that number with $11.8M. Oops. The Eric Bana thriller Closed Circuit was DOA opening at #16 (ouch) with $3.1 million from Wednesday to Monday. I predicted it’d do $7.2M in that time frame.

Tonight on the blog, I’ll have my prediction for next weekend’s only new entry, Riddick with Vin Diesel. Stay tuned!

This coming weekend marks the official end of the summer movie season and there are three new entries to close it out: One Direction: This Is Us, Getaway, and Closed Circuit. Per usual, I made prediction posts on all three and they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/one-direction-this-is-us-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/getaway-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/closed-circuit-box-office-prediction/

Since it’s Labor Day weekend, my predictions are for the four-day holiday weekend. Traditionally on this weekend, titles that have been earning solid money experience not only small declines from the previous three-day weekend, but often increases. This bodes well for both Lee Daniels’ The Butler and We’re the Millers, which held the top spots this past weekend. I don’t anticipate that will change over Labor Day.

I am predicting two of the newcomers take #3 and #4 (I expect Closed Circuit to open well outside the top five, likely the #8 or #9 spot). As for the five spot, I believe Disney’s Planes will see a slight increase and remain fifth, leapfrogging last weekend’s #3 and #4, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones and The World’s End.

And with that, my predictions for the top 5 over Labor Day weekend:

1. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing an increase of 20%)

2. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing an increase of 15%)

3. One Direction: This Is Us

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

4. Getaway

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. Planes

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing an increase of 7%)

Be sure to check the Facebook throughout the long weekend for updates and Monday for final results!

While the Labor Day weekend is traditionally seen as a dumping ground for studios to put out pictures they have little confidence in, there’s a reason Focus Features is releasing Closed Circuit over this holiday frame.

Two years ago, over the same weekend, the studio had a better than expected opening for The Debt, a British thriller starring Helen Mirren and Sam Worthington. That film opened to a robust $12.8 million over the 2011 Labor Day weekend, which unexpectedly put it at #2 behind The Help. 

Focus is certainly hoping lightning will strike twice with another British thriller. This one stars Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall. That being said, the marketing for Closed Circuit has been way under the radar. Could it open with the same numbers as The Debt? It’s certainly possible, but I can also see it totally bombing on the same level that Paranoia did just a week ago with an awful $3.5 million debut.

Closed Circuit opens on Wednesday, unlike the weekend’s other debuts One Direction: This Is Us and Getaway. I just don’t buy that it’ll be a surprise mid-size hit like The Debt, but I don’t quite see it failing on Paranoia‘s level. So we’ll go somewhere in the middle.

Closed Circuit opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (over the Friday-Monday Labor Day weekend), $7.2 million (over the Wednesday-Monday opening)

For my prediction on One Direction: This Is Us, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/one-direction-this-is-us-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Getaway with Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/getaway-box-office-prediction/

Stepping away from the horror genre where he’s had great success over the past year, Ethan Hawke stars in Getaway, an action thriller that pairs him with actress/singer Selena Gomez. After Spring Breakers earlier this year, Gomez is clearly making the transition to more adult roles and this continues that trend.

As mentioned, Hawke has had a nice career resurgence with horror hits Sinister last fall and The Purge this summer. He also starred in the critically acclaimed indie hit Before Midnight this year, his third romantic pic pairing with Julie Delpy.

Judging from the trailer, Getaway looks like it could be a fun B movie. However, I’m not sure audiences are too excited about this one and Labor Day weekend is traditionally a bit of a dumping ground for titles the studios don’t have huge faith in. A gross in the range of 2012’s Labor Day weekend flick Lawless with Shia LaBeouf and Tom Hardy seems about right. That film earned $10 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $12.8 million over the four-day holiday frame.

Once again, my prediction is for the four-day gross of the full Labor Day weekend.

Getaway opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my prediction for One Direction: This Is Us, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/one-direction-this-is-us-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Closed Circuit with Eric Bana, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/closed-circuit-box-office-prediction/

And now, my friends, we arrive at the culmination of my movie blogging experience thus far: predicting the opening of a One Direction concert film!

One Direction: This Is Us opens this Friday and hopes to cash in on the English boy band’s fame and turn multiplexes into a party of screaming teenage girls. The timing of the release is somewhat curious. Its target audience is heading back to school and you have to wonder if an earlier summer release might have been more appropriate.

When looking at previous pop superstar concert flicks, there’s a wide range of box office openings. Before he went all R. Kelly and started peeing on things on camera, Justin Bieber had a huge opening with Never Say Never to the tune of $29.5 million. Michael Jackson’s This Is It (his posthumous concert footage pic) made $23 million in its debut and the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus concert film earned a whopping $31 million for its opening.

On the flip side, there’s Katy Perry: Part of Me, which sputtered with a weak $7 million debut. I believe the best comparison for This Is Us is probably The Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience, which managed an OK $12.5 million opening.

I know what you’re thinking… nearly 200 words into this post and I haven’t named my favorite member of One Direction. Jordan Knight? Johnny Gill? Lance Bass? Tito? I mean… how do you choose?

One truly interesting aspect of this concert flick is it director, Morgan Spurlock. You probably know him best as the documentary filmmaker who did Super Size Me and now has a weekly show on CNN. What attracted him to this? Beats me. Blogger’s note: I actually met Spurlock in downtown Columbus a couple of years back. He was filming a documentary and I had a pleasant five minute chat with him. Seems like a nice guy.

One Direction: This Is Us debuts over the four-day Labor Weekend so my prediction reflects my estimated Friday to Monday gross. The same will hold true for the other two debuts this coming weekend, Getaway and Closed Circuit.

One Direction: This Is Us opening weekend prediction: $14.9 million

For my prediction on Getaway with Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/getaway-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Closed Circuit with Eric Bana, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/closed-circuit-box-office-prediction/