Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million.
Warner Bros hopes audiences RSVP to the House Party reboot when it debuts January 13th. Directed by Calmatic (best known for music videos and commercials), Jacob Latimore and Tosin Cole star as best friends who hatch a plan to hold a blowout bash at the estate of LeBron James. The NBA superstar plays himself as do musical celebs like Kid Cudi, Lil Wayne, and Snoop Dogg.
The 1990 original featured hip hop act Kid N’ Play (who appear here) and spawned two sequels. It was a surprise box office success that also drew critical kudos. This was originally slated for an HBO Max only premiere last summer before the studio shifted emphasis to theatrical output.
Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Party could manage to over perform. There’s a real question which new release will make the most money with A Man Called Otto and Plane as the other contenders. The trio should all fall behind Avatar: The Way of Water and M3GAN. I’ll project this falls short of double digits earnings by a notable margin.
House Party opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.
It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).
Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.
Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.
Best Film
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian and Charles
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder
This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR
While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.
Documentary
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.
Animated Film
The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.
Director
Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Chinonye Chukwu, Till
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Sara Dosa, Fire of Love
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Marie Kreutzer, Corsage
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Maria Schrader, She Said
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.
Leading Actress
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.
Leading Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aimee Lou Wood, Living
Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.
Original Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder
This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?
***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).
Casting
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Editing
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Make Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
The Wonder
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World: Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!
Blogger’s Update (01/09): Based on Otto‘s impressive performance on just over 600 screens the previous weekend, I am revising my estimate considerably up from $11.3 million $15.9 million for the four-day MLK haul.
One of the most beloved Everyman actors is a grumpy man in A Man Called Otto, opening wide on January 13th. Tom Hanks is the title character in this remake of the 2015 Swedish film which was adapted from a 2012 Fredrik Backman novel. Marc Forster directs with a supporting cast including Mariana Treviño, Rachel Keller, Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, Cameron Britton, and Mike Birbiglia.
Reviews are fairly decent with a current 66% Rotten Tomatoes score. Hanks is obviously a big name though he’s not the box office draw he once was. He did just recently appear in the summer hit Elvis. However, recent starring roles have either been streaming debuts (Greyhound, Finch) or under performers (News of the World).
Pics catering to adults have generally suffered at multiplexes lately. What might help is that the book was a huge bestseller. That said, even with a four-day MLK rollout, I question whether this gets to double digits. I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt. Otto does expand to over 600 venues on January 6th. Depending on how it rolls out this weekend, it could change the forecast below.
A Man Called Otto opening weekend prediction: $15.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Plane lands in theaters on January 13th as Lionsgate hopes it takes off with action fans over the long MLK weekend. From French filmmaker Jean-François Richet, Gerard Butler stars as a pilot stranded in dangerous territory. Costars include Mike Colter, Yoson An, and Tony Goldwyn. The screenplay was sold as The Plane until the powers that be jettisoned that silly “the”.
Our simplistically titled pic comes with a reported $50 million price tag. That’s not huge, but it will likely struggle to make it back (at least on the domestic front). The mid-January frame has seen its share of medium size budgeted genre fare. Potential comps include 2013’s The Last Stand with its $7.2 million start, Sleepless from 2017 at $9.7 million, and 2018’s Proud Mary with $11.7 million. There’s also The Commuter from five years back with $15.7 million and that’s probably an unreachable ceiling.
We also have Butler comps to ponder. In 2018, Den of Thieves also debuted in January to $15.2 million while Hunter Killer managed just $6.6 million that autumn. 2021’s Copshop was a dud with $2.3 million out of the gate, but it arrived during the COVID slowdown.
Due to the holiday, we’re estimating a four-day take. My hunch is that many moviegoers will standby to view it at home. It could manage double digits though I’ll say it falls below that figure and closer to Killer than Thieves.
Plane opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The first full weekend of the new year sees deranged doll M3GAN dancing into multiplexes as she hopes to have a strong #2 showing behind Avatar: The Way of Water. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on 2023’s initial wide release right here:
I believe M3GAN will perform similarly to last fall’s Smile and a low to mid 20s premiere would cause Universal and Blumhouse to do just that. The trailers have generated lots of attention and the overall marketing campaign (like Smile) has been impressive. There’s a chance it could over perform my estimate, but I don’t see it threatening Avatar.
That’s because the James Cameron sequel achieved the third largest third domestic weekend of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and the first Avatar. A fourth frame drop in the mid to higher 40s range should net it a mid 30s showing. Like M3GAN, I wouldn’t be shocked it goes higher.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should easily be third after an encouraging sophomore outing with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I think it’ll look:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Predicted Gross: $2.1 million
Box Office Results (December 30-January 1)
2022 closed out and 2023 kicked off with Avatar: The Way of Water dominating the charts with $67.4 million. That’s right in line with my $65.8 million forecast. This third weekend was an important one for the long-in-development follow-up as it’s amassed $425 million stateside coupled with its gigantic worldwide earnings ($1.4 billion).
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rose 35% from its debut at $16.8 million – in range with my $16.1 million prediction. The DreamWorks animated sequel hit $61 million as nine figures looks doable.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ascended to third with $5.1 million, a touch above my $4.5 million take. Overall haul is $438 million.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody felt the heat of a disappointing second frame in fourth. Dropping 16% with $3.9 million, I wrongly thought it might go up at $5.6 million. The meager ten-day tally is $14 million.
Babylon, after a disastrous start, continued the free fall with $2.6 million in fifth (I said $3.2 million). It’s made $10 million with a reported $80 million price tag.
Violent Night was sixth with $2.1 million. I was more optimistic at $3.1 million. The R rated holiday tale has scored a solid $40 million.
My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.
While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.
In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.
While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.
We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)
4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 7) (E)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Babylon
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
Noah Baumbach’s White Noise begins with a professorial dissertation on the American public’s fascination with car crashes in the movies. In the course of the next two hours plus, this adaptation of Don DeLillo’s 1985 novel careens wildly from genre to genre with divergent tones scraping against one another. That’s not an accident. I think Baumbach made the picture he set out to make.
I can’t speak to the source material though a common thread is that it’s unfilmable. Here we are though I suspect many will concur. Set in the time period when the book was penned, Jack Gladney (Adam Driver) teaches Hitler Studies at a liberal arts college. It’s the kind of higher ed institution where the faculty deem themselves brilliant and every utterance carries the weight of gospel. No matter that Professor Gladney is secretly learning German despite his self professed expertise on their history. The comedic highlight of his work comes in a “lecture off” with a colleague (Don Cheadle) who teaches Elvis Studies to his non-suspicious minded pupils.
Jack is married to Babette (Greta Gerwig). They are each on their fourth marriage with a blended brood of as many kids. Denise (Raffey Cassidy), spawned from a previous Babette nuptial, is worried about strange pills that Mom is taking called Dylar. Her stepdad is mostly oblivious and not just about that. When a train accident spills chemicals near their home, Jack seems more concerned with dinner than evacuation routes. A black cloud from the “Airborne Toxic Event” does set them off on the road where adventures in comedy, noir, relationship dramas, and Spielbergian sci-burbia await.
The real black cloud involves the fear of death. Jack and Babette are practically in a competition about who it frightens most. The screenplay has some dark and demented fun exploring the distractions to not think about The End. I must confess there were times, especially in the first act, where I wondered if the means to this movie’s eventual end was worth it. White Noise is a lot – lots of mood swings, lots of story crammed in. It falters sometimes like its college faculty in thinking it’s sharper than it is. Still those big swings are admirable and the cast is devoted to the many frames of mind. I’m not sure I always bought Driver as the aloof middle aged dad, but he’s terrific at times and so is Gerwig.
This is exhilarating and maddening and both words apply frequently. I rarely wanted to look away – sorta like a car crash though it’s tougher to categorize the sadistic allure.
We have reached 2019 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
In 2019, there were nine films vying for the prize. We know one thing for sure. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite is in since it made history and became the first non-English language title to take Best Picture. It had a big night as it also won Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film.
There’s 8 others to consider. Only half make cut. Let’s get into it!
Ford v Ferrari
James Mangold’s 1960s set sports drama starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale had four total nominations and won 2 of them (Sound Editing and Film Editing). It wasn’t as fortunate in Picture or Sound Mixing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. I say this knowing the Film Editing victor usually lands a BP nod (though not the case with 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum and 2011’s The Girl with Dragon Tattoo). However, Ford achieved the least number of overall mentions among the 9 contenders and missed key races including Director, any acting derbies, and screenplay.
The Irishman
Martin Scorsese’s return to the Mob genre was Netflix’s highest profile Oscar player yet. It earned ten overall nods including for Scorsese, two Supporting Actor bids for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, and Adapted Screenplay. Going 0 for 10, Robert De Niro was a somewhat surprising omission for his lead work.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Despite the lack of wins, the sheer number of inclusions indicate the legendary filmmaker and cast would vie for the top award.
Jojo Rabbit
Taika Waititi’s unique take on WWII was up for 6 races including Scarlett Johansson for Supporting Actress and Film Editing. The sole victory (a major one) was Adapted Screenplay where it beat out three other BP nominees.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but this was easily the hardest to leave off. The Screenplay win suggests it certainly could have. A miss in Director was a deciding factor and the fact that I couldn’t omit any of the final five I ended up going with.
Joker
Warner Bros. had unexpected bragging rights as this Scorsese inspired take on the DC Comics villain had the best haul with 11 nods. This includes Todd Phillips in Director and key precursors like Editing and Adapted Screenplay. The two wins came courtesy of Joaquin Phoenix in the title role and in Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Usually the leader of the pack does and this popped up in categories it originally wasn’t anticipated to.
Little Women
Greta Gerwig’s acclaimed version of the classic Louisa May Alcott novel was also up for Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Florence Pugh), Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Costume Design (which was its only victory).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Simple math here. If I didn’t put Jojo in (which won Adapted Screenplay), I can’t justify vaulting this over it.
Marriage Story
Just like Little Women, Noah Baumbach’s drama was up for six and managed one. The win was Laura Dern (who was also in Women) in Supporting Actress while it also vied for Actor (Adam Driver), Actress (double nominee Scarlett Johansson), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Just like Little Women – no. Like Women, not making the Director race and not winning screenplay make this a fairly easy forecast.
1917
The World War I epic from Sam Mendes boasted 10 nominations with 3 statues for Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. The Editing miss was obvious since the picture famously used few cuts.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. In fact, this was likely the runner-up to Parasite. It went into the evening as the favorite for BP and Director until Joon-ho’s film made its history.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Quentin Tarantino’s ninth feature was slotted for 10 categories including QT for director, Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor, and Original Screenplay where its two-time winning scribe lost to Joon-ho. The two victories were Brad Pitt in Supporting Actor and Production Design.
Does It the Final Five?
Yes though I admit the Editing snub had me questioning it. An argument can be made for Jojo, but I ultimately think Quentin and company get in.
So that means your 2019 Final Five is:
The Irishman
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
I will note that this quintet mirrors the individuals who were up for Best Director. That is typically not a 5/5 match. It happened occasionally when there were 5 BP nominees and I feel this is a time where it would’ve.
2020 will be up soon and if you missed the posts covering 2009-18, they can be accessed here:
Tarik Saleh’s political thriller Cairo Conspiracy (known as Boy from Heaven in other areas of the globe) is Sweden’s submission for International Feature Film at the Oscars. Following its premiere at Cannes in early summer, Saleh took the Best Screenplay prize. With shortlists being announced last week, it’s one of 15 foreign entries vying for 5 slots.
Cairo isn’t quite as acclaimed as some other hopefuls with its 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Swedes, on the other hand, are pretty crafty at getting their pics nominated. There’s been two in the past decade with 2016’s A Man Called Ove and 2017’s The Square. You do have to go back a ways to find the previous winner in 1983’s Fanny and Alexander.
It was a question mark whether Conspiracy would even make the shortlist. I suspect it won’t be seen in the eventual quintet despite its country’s previous successes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adamma Ebo’s Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. concentrates on a mission to atone while the screenplay can’t always find a tone of its own. A comedy that wants to dive deeper into its themes, it is served by two dynamic lead turns from Regina Hall and Sterling K. Brown. The inconsistency doesn’t always serve them.
Adapting her own short film, Soul struggles to account for its feature length. The concept is simple. Lee-Curtis Childs (Brown) is the pastor of a once booming Southern Baptist megachurch. Wife Trinitie (Hall) is The First Lady. Numerous scandals involving Lee-Curtis’s relationships with young males have dwindled the membership from hundreds to a mere handful. A documentary crew is present to chronicle either a resurrection or their final downfall as they are planning an Easter comeback service.
Will anyone show up? Competition is fierce as another couple (Conphidance and Nicole Beharie) are planning the debut of a rival location on the same Sunday. Many former congregants seem likely to jump ship as Lee-Curtis and Trinitie are desperate to maintain some of them.
In the beginning stages, Honk seems inspired by Christopher Guest’s acclaimed mockumentaries. It doesn’t fully commit to that format in the way that his best works did. A tone in the more serious range rises as it goes along. Lee-Curtis must confront a victim (Austin Crute) who won’t settle like the others and Trinitie must confront their troubled marriage.
The decadence of their lifestyle is the focus of the satire and it makes the Childs an easy and familiarly covered target. The actors playing them almost make this worthwhile anyway. Hall and Brown both have emotional monologues that showcase their power. It’s a testament to their performances that we think legions of their parishioners might turn back up. Trinitie, especially, is a character that could’ve been fascinating given her tortured connection with her potentially irredeemable spouse. She needed more substance than she’s granted. I have no doubt Hall would have excelled at fleshing her out.
One running joke is about how the documentary’s director (never seen) won’t say anything despite prodding from her subjects. Honk‘s maker Ebo, who wrote this expansion, gives voice to a promising premise that feels unfulfilled. It seems like it has plenty to say and never quite settles on how to say it all.
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