July 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction

Smurfs Box Office Prediction

Eddington Box Office Prediction

I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.

As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.

I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.

There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $56.2 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. F1

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.

Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.

F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.

Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…