Disney seeks to break its own all-time biggest Thanksgiving weekend record when Moana 2 sails into multiplexes this Wednesday. It’s the sole wide release over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
It could be close, but I’m projecting the sequel to 2016’s animated tale will exceed Frozen II‘s current largest three-day and five-day ($85.9 million and $125 million) takes over the Turkey Day frame. The follow-up should easily top the Thanksgiving Friday to Sunday mark for a new picture which is currently held by… Moana at $56 million.
Leftovers will populate the rest of the top 5 with Wicked posting a second place showing after its third best premiere of 2024 (more on that below). With an A Cinemascore grade, the decline may only be in the mid 30s or so.
Gladiator II will drop a notch to third after a start on the lower end of its anticipated range. Ridley Scott’s long-in-the-works sequel could lose close to half its debut audience.
Red One and Venom: The Last Dance should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $71.6 million
3. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $27.5 million
4. Red One
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (November 22-24)
Two things can be true as “Glicked” (Wicked and Gladiator II releasing on the same day) gave a needed jolt to the box office while each came in at the lower end of most projections. The critically acclaimed Wicked, based on the hugely popular play, made off with $112.5 million. As mentioned, it’s the third best haul in 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. Yet it didn’t match my $134.6 million forecast. With magical word-of-mouth, this seems destined to perform well throughout the season.
Gladiator II was runner-up with $55 million and that didn’t measure up to my $69.8 million call. The so-so Cinemascore grade could mean its weekend to weekend declines could be heftier than I might’ve originally projected.
Red One slid to third at $13.2 million compared to my $14.9 million prediction. The holiday action comedy has taken in $52 million in two weeks which isn’t overly impressive considering the reported $250 million price tag.
Newcomer Bonhoeffer from Angel Studios was the only newcomer of the trio that opened above my expectations with $5 million. I said $4 million.
Venom: The Last Dance rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) for $133 million in five weeks.
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was sixth with $3.4 million, ahead of my $2.7 million projection for $25 million in three weeks. Behind it in seventh was Heretic with $2.2 million (I went with $2.5 million) for $24 million in three weeks.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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