October 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

Warner Bros hopes Joker: Folie à Deux can approach the gargantuan grosses that its predecessor earned five years ago while Lionsgate has the long delayed Wonder prequel White Bird out this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction

White Bird Box Office Prediction

A half decade ago, Joker rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $96 million debut (the best October start of all time), a $335 eventual domestic gross, and an Oscar statue for Joaquin Phoenix. With Lady Gaga joining the mayhem as Harley Quinn, word-of-mouth is more mixed for part Deux and it likely won’t achieve the hotshot premiere of part un. While my mid 50s forecast easily has it topping the charts, that’s over $40 million less out of the gate.

As for White Bird, I expect it to be another significant under performer for distributor Lionsgate who just saw Megalopolis crash and burn (more on that below). My number for Bird puts it just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, The Wild Robot might see a mid to high 40s decline after its solid beginning while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Speak No Evil‘s percentage dips should be smaller. The highest plummet in the top 5 (same as this past frame) should belong to Transformers One.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (September 27-29)

DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, with fresh reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, performed impressively with $35.7 million. That’s just ahead of my $33.8 million take and it should play well throughout the next few weeks.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after three weeks in 1st, slid to second with $16.2 million. That’s a mere 37% decline and beyond my $14.8 million prediction. The sequel has amassed $250 million in four weeks.

The news was more distressing for Transformers One as it plummeted 63% in its sophomore frame to $9.1 million. I was more generous at $11.5 million as Hasbro’s latest underwhelming franchise entry has taken in $39 million in ten days.

Epic Indian Telugu-language action flick Devara: Part 1 opened in fourth with $5.6 million with the second best per screen average in the top 10. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

Speak No Evil was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $3.4 million). The thriller sits at $28 million after three weeks.

Finally, Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed Megalopolis (with a reported $120 million price tag) could not overcome mostly middling reviews and audience ambivalence. It was sixth with $4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. With a D+ Cinemascore, I suspect this falls over 65% in its second weekend. Ouch.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…