After an iffy start to the summer cinematic season, the industry hopes business heats up over Memorial Day weekend. We have George Miller’s franchise prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga looking to lead the way with the animated The Garfield Movie angling to post a strong second place showing. There’s also the faith-based biopic Sight from Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
With mostly laudatory reviews (though not on the level of predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road), I’m estimating that Furiosa gets just under $50 million over the extended Friday to Monday frame. That would put in right in line with expectations.
Same goes for Chris Pratt’s vocal work as that orange tabby cat in The Garfield Movie. My low 40s forecast gives it a runner-up debut as this hopes to bring family audiences in for the next few weeks.
Speaking of families, they turned out on the lower end of the anticipated range for IF (more on that below). It was still a rather decent opening, but the competition from Garfield could sting a little. I still think manages a tad over $20 million for the holiday.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes should slide from 2nd to 4th in the mid teens to high teens region while slots 5-7 could be awfully close between The Fall Guy, Sight, and The Strangers: Chapter 1.
Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these figures are for Friday through Monday:
1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Predicted Gross: $47.2 million
2. The Garfield Movie
Predicted Gross: $41.5 million
3. IF
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $18 million
5. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
6. The Strangers: Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
7. Sight
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (May 17-19)
As mentioned, John Krasinski’s IF with Ryan Reynolds certainly didn’t over perform and came in with a fine but unremarkable $33.7 million. I thought it would get a bit more with $38.3 million. The A Cinemascore grade could mean its legs will be sturdy. That said, competition will be fierce.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was second after a muscular opening last weekend with $25.4 million, just outdoing my $23.6 million prediction. The two-week total is $100 million.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 managed (barely) the largest horror unveiling of 2024 with a better than expected $11.8 million estimate. Considering its reported teensy budget, that’s a solid number and ahead of my $9.1 million call.
The Fall Guy fell to fourth with $8.3 million, in line with my $8 million projection. The three-week gross is $62 million.
Challengers rounded out the top five in weekend #4 and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. It has made $43 million overall.
They tried to make the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black a hit, but audiences said no (no no). It flopped in sixth with a mere $2.8 million compared to my more hopeful $4.5 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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