Five years ago, The Nun upended conventional wisdom (get it??) with a larger than anticipated opening. At the time, it was the fifth feature in the Conjuring Universe and it set the opening weekend record for the horror franchise at $53 million. The sequel out September 8th is now the ninth entry with Michael Chaves directing (he also made The Curse of La Llorona and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It). Taissa Farmiga, Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons (as The Nun) reprise their roles with Storm Reid and Anna Popplewell joining the cast.
Whether its The Conjuring and its sequels, Annabelle and her follow-ups, or The Nun, Warner Bros has made massive profits in the past decade from this series. Nun II‘s predecessor, in addition to the highest premiere, holds the second best overall domestic gross ($117 million while the first Conjuring took in $137 million). Each direct follow-up for Conjuring and Annabelle has seen slight to fairly substantial decreases in their debuts. 2013’s Conjuring made $41 million while part 2 made $40 million and the third slid to $24 million (with COVID complications to be fair). Annabelle started with $37 million while its sequel hit $35 million and the third did $20 million (a series low).
You’ll note that the second installments hold up rather well. The Nun II would need to top the original Conjuring‘s $41 million for the #2 beginning. That’s certainly doable, but I’ll project high 30s.
The Nun II opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million
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