November 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/17): The Fathom Events theatrical output of The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 wasn’t on my radar last week when I made projections. I believe it should open in third place (with #2 certainly possible). My estimates have been updated below to reflect the change.

Culinary satire The Menu and true life journalistic expose She Said are the newbies premiering Friday. Each will vie for runner-up status as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will undoubtedly remain in first place in its sophomore outing. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the fresh product here:

I’m giving the edge to The Menu for #2. I don’t think anything other than Panther will manage double digits and my higher single digits estimate for Menu outweighs the low to mid ones for She Said.

Their placement at 2 and 5 is reliant on neither drastically underperforming and Black Adam having a low to mid 40s dip for fourth. Ticket to Paradise should be fourth depending on the She Said gross.

Back to Panther. The MCU sequel fell $6 million short of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness for biggest domestic premiere of 2022. Strange fell 67% in its second weekend while the year’s other MCU title Thor: Love and Thunder dropped 68%. With its A Cinemascore grade, Wakanda may not fall quite that precipitously.

Here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:

1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $70.3 million

2. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

3. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

4. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

5. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. She Said

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (November 11-13)

I went a little high in projecting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would achieve the largest debut of the year. It made $181.3 million compared to my call of $195.2 million. As mentioned, that didn’t reach the $187 million that Multiverse did (though it easily outpaced Thor‘s $144 million). Wakanda also fell under the $202 million that its 2018 predecessor made out of the gate.

Black Adam fell to second after two weeks on top with $8 million (in line with my $8.7 million estimate). This comic book adaptation is up to $150 million after three weeks.

Ticket to Paradise was third at $5.9 million, on target with my $5.8 million prediction. The rom com hit $56 million after its third frame.

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was fourth with $3.2 million (a bit ahead of my $2.5 million estimate) for $40 million total.

Smile rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.4 million) as it passed the century mark with $102 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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