October 1-3 Box Office Predictions

An October filled with potential heavy hitters begins Friday with the release of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Tom Hardy’s sequel to the 2018 comic book blockbuster. We also have spooky animated sequel The Addams Family 2 and Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Box Office Prediction

The Addams Family 2 Box Office Prediction

The Many Saints of Newark Box Office Prediction

One thing seems certain: the September long reign of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will cease with the arrival of Venom. I don’t envision it approaching the $80 million premiere achieved by its predecessor, but a high 50s forecast has it ruling the roost.

The two other newbies are also both available for home viewing (Addams for general rental, Newark on HBO Max). Addams should have no trouble snapping into the 2 spot. I’m projecting it earns a little more than half of the original’s $30 million.

Newark is a bit of a head scratcher. It stands to reason that many Sopranos devotees may have a Max membership and simply choose to view from their couch. I’ll say it gets close enough to double digits to just outdo Shang-Chi in its fifth frame (though it could be close).

After a muted debut, Dear Evan Hansen should drop in the low to mid 40s for a fifth place showing.

Here’s how I see the top 5:

1. Venom: Let There Be Carnage

Predicted Gross: $58.7 million

2. The Addams Family 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. The Many Saints of Newark

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Dear Evan Hansen

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (September 24-26)

As anticipated, Shang-Chi made it a September clean sweep as it remained #1 for the fourth weekend and became the highest grossing domestic earner of the COVID era. With $13 million (I overshot at $14.9 million), the impressive take is $196 million.

The musical drama Dear Evan Hansen couldn’t get most critics or crowds on its side. It underperformed with $7.4 million, falling shy of my $8.6 million prediction. Its A- Cinemascore rating could mean small declines ahead, but fans of the Broadway show may have already rushed to view it (just not as many as the studio hoped).

Free Guy was third with $4.1 million compared to my $4.5 million projection and it’s up to $114 million.

Candyman placed fourth with $2.5 million. My guess? $2.5 million! Total is $56 million.

Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with just $2 million (I said $2.8 million) for $8 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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