Box Office Predictions: December 14-16

An onslaught of holiday offerings begin this weekend as a trio of newbies swing into multiplexes. They’re likely to populate the top 3 spots and give a jolt to a typically sleepy post Thanksgiving box office frame. We have the critically acclaimed animated Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Clint Eastwood’s true-life dramatic thriller The Mule, and Peter Jackson penned dystopian adventure Mortal Engines. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/04/spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/05/the-mule-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/06/mortal-engines-box-office-prediction/

Just as all six Spidey features have debuted at #1 over the past decade and a half plus, so shall Spider-Verse. It should do so rather easily with an estimated take in the upper 40s.

I do believe enough Eastwood fans will turn out for The Mule to be #2. It hopes to play well throughout the holiday season with adult moviegoers.

With a reported $100 million budget, Mortal Engines is shaping up to be a costly flop, though it should still manage a third place showing.

The rest of the top five should be some family leftovers and I’ll predict The Grinch manages to outdo Ralph Breaks the Internet, which has held the top spot for the past three weeks.

I also need to mention Once Upon a Deadpool, which premieres this Wednesday. As you may have read, this is a PG-13 version of this summer’s Deadpool 2 with 20 minutes of new footage. It’s slated to open on approximately 500 screens and I haven’t done an individual prediction post for it. It’s a real mystery as to how it performs, but I certainly don’t believe it will be in the top five. This could fluctuate for sure – but I’ll say it makes $4.2 million from Friday to Sunday.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million

2. The Mule

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Mortal Engines

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

4. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

Box Office Results (December 7-9) 

It was expected to be a quiet weekend with no new wide releases out. It certainly was as Ralph Breaks the Internet topped the charts for the third time with $16.2 million, in line with my $16.7 million estimate. The Disney sequel has amassed $140 million so far. This was only the third weekend of 2018 where the #1 pic didn’t reach $20 million and it’s certain to be the last.

The Grinch was second with $15 million (I said $14.2 million) for an overall tally of $223 million.

Creed II was third at $9.9 million – right there with my $10.1 million prediction. It’s approaching the century mark at $96 million in three weeks.

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald made $6.9 million for fourth (I said $6.2 million). The wizarding world sequel’s gross is at $145 million.

Bohemian Rhapsody rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I projected $5.9 million) for $173 million. $200 million could be in its sights if it continues to hold well.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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