Box Office Predictions: April 27-29

We are in the midst of the spring season currently, but in Hollywood it becomes summer this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War blasts into theaters. The Disney/Marvel property brings together the MCU superheroes of the past decade and looks to break numerous records. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/17/avengers-infinity-war-box-office-prediction/

As my estimate outlines, I anticipate Infinity falling just short (about $7 million) of the all-time opening record achieved by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in December of 2015. That easily gives it the #2 premiere (well above the $220 million that Star Wars: The Last Jedi made this past December).

All of the oxygen in this late April frame should be sucked up by Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and more. This means holdovers may experience some rather rough declines, including Rampage. I also have a feeling Super Troopers 2 (after an opening that exceeded all expectations) is an example of a front-loaded gross and its sophomore fall could be significant. A Quiet Place should drop to second while Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty may lose around half of its middling debut audience.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $240.2 million

2. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

4. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Super Troopers 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (April 20-22)

A Quiet Place crept back up into the top spot as the acclaimed horror pic took in $20.9 million, on pace with my $21.6 million projection. Its three-week total stands at a terrific $131 million.

Rampage dropped to second and held up better than I figured in weekend #2 with $20 million compared to my $17 million forecast. The Dwayne Johnson adventure has made $65 million thus far. As mentioned, it could be in for a healthier drop this weekend considering the competition.

Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty debuted in third with a just OK $16 million, in line with my $16.2 million prediction. This is lower than the comedian’s previous outings, Trainwreck and Snatched.

While Pretty was a comedy that opened on the lower end of estimates, Super Troopers 2 was fourth and blew away most prognostications. The sequel to the 2002 cult hit made a strong $15.1 million, nearly tripling my $5.2 million estimate.

Truth or Dare rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was close at $7.9 million. The low-budget Blumhouse horror offering sits at $30 million in its first two weekends.

Due to my low ball take on Troopers, I incorrectly had Blockers fifth. It came in seventh with $6.8 million (I said $5.9 million) for $48 million overall. Ready Player One was sixth with $7.4 million and it’s up to $126 million.

Finally, the Paula Patton thriller Traffik opened in ninth with $3.9 million – a bit above my $3 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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